Morgan: 56.5-43.5

Morgan seems to be back to reporting weekly face-to-face polling, at least for the time being: the latest survey of 1014 respondents has Labor down 1.5 per cent to 45 per cent and the Coalition down 2 per cent to 36.5 per cent, changing the two-party vote from 56-44 to 56.5-43.5. The Greens are up a point to 9 per cent, Family First two to 3 per cent.

Elsewhere:

• Previously believed bound for marginal Macarthur, Labor MP Chris Hayes has now been offered safe Fowler to compensate for Reid MP Laurie Ferguson’s accommodation in his existing seat of Werriwa. This is despite the fact that Ferguson wanted Fowler while Hayes preferred to remain in Werriwa, which was impossible because Fowler’s Right-controlled branches did not want Ferguson on their turf. The arrangement is a win for Julia Gillard and the “soft Left” over Anthony Albanese and the “hard Left”, which wanted Werriwa to go to Damien Ogden of the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union. However, the drama may not be over yet: also out in the cold is Ed Husic of the Communications Electrial and Plumbing Union, whom the Right still wishes to accommodate. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports talk he might replace Roger Price in Chifley. Macarthur presumably available again to its candidate from 2007, Nick Bleasdale.

• Jennie George has announced she will retire at the next election, opening up a preselection contest in her seat of Throsby. A factional deal in place since 1997 has given Throsby to the hard Left and Fowler to the Right; Alex Arnold of the Illawarra Mercury reports the Left has everything in place to deliver the seat to Stephen Jones of the Community and Public Sector Union. The Mercury’s Brett Cox reports “no love lost between factions over the issue, with the Left accusing the Right of a behind the scenes campaign to oust Ms George and discredit Mr Jones’ links to the region”. Local Australian Workers Union branch secretary Andy Gillespie has labelled the Right dissidents “hypocrites”, as they had acquiesced in the imposition Lylea McMahon in the state seat of Shellharbour.

• The Liberal preselection for Bennelong looms as a contest between former tennis star John Alexander and Mark Chan, a 25-year-old manager for GE Capital whose Chinese background is being sold as an asset in the seat. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the party has brought the preselection process forward so it can capitalise on Alexander’s exposure over summer as a tennis commentator. This would seem to suggest he is considered the front-runner.

Saffron Howden of the Northern Star reports Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock is the “likely Nationals candidate” for Richmond. Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout is considered a likely Liberal candidate.

• After a state and federal political career stretching back to 1965, Tasmanian Liberal MP Michael Hodgman has announced he will not contest the March state election due to ill health. Despite being 71 and suffering emphysema, Hodgman had remained on the six-person Liberal line-up for Denison when it was finalised last month. The party will now have to find a replacement candidate, and enter the election without a sitting member in the division. Among those who missed out at preselection was Hobart alderman and regular independent candidate Marti Zucco.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,146 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  1. [You have just shown that Rann ridiculed accusations that were never made. That was my point.]
    Wrong.
    He WAS accused of having sex in his parliamentary office.
    He WAS accused of having sex at a golf course.

    He rejected both accusations and any other accusations that involve him having sex with Chantelois.

    You haven’t actually stated anything of any worth, you have no point.

  2. [You have just shown that Rann ridiculed accusations that were never made. That was my point.]
    I would argue though that that point really is not worth establishing given that Rudd has denied having sex with her at all.

  3. SO

    So you’re saying that Rann, at his most important press conference which he prepared and studied for as his life depended on it, with the advice of his lawyer just happened to get the allegations wrong because he forgot what Chantelois said.

  4. [I would argue though that that point really is not worth establishing given that Rudd has denied having sex with her at all.]
    Now THAT would’ve been a story if Rann denied that Rudd had sex with her.

  5. VP

    best not to say anymore,you get the gist

    ps
    an aussie mob called pronto do a lot of carrier software-front end mainly
    most backend is one of the big boys

    AI aint what it used to be.

    (just think,30 yrs ago an AMDAHL V7/8 would and FACOM M180 plus assorted DIGITAL and UNIVAC was considered state of the art- and occupied all of unit 9-equipped with Halon gas, antistatic mats and containment rooms tended to by 10+personnel)

    NOW ALL THAT IS ONE LAPTOP

  6. Perhaps the best way to proceed is for all Labor pollies at both State and Federal levels is to declare they are polygamists and that’s why they’re in the game. You know it makes sense.

  7. [So you’re saying that Rann, at his most important press conference which he prepared and studied for as his life depended on it]
    WHAT? Where is your evidence that he prepared and studied as if his life depended on it?

    To me he sounded ANGRY more than anything.
    [with the advice of his lawyer just happened to get the allegations wrong because he forgot what Chantelois said.]
    You idiot! He denied having ANY sex with her!

    If someone accused you of murdering 4 people, and you respond by saying “I have never murdered anyone!”, would you agree if someone said that could still mean you murdered 4 people because “4” is different to “anyone”?

    Get real. You spin more than Rann!

  8. [For god sakes go and do everyone a favour and have one yourself so you can get it out of your system]

    Centre, Dio would want to be careful with that! Mrs Dio might decide to do a bit of plastic surgery on him!!! 😉

  9. [So you’re saying that Rann, at his most important press conference which he prepared and studied for as his life depended on it, with the advice of his lawyer just happened to get the allegations wrong because he forgot what Chantelois said.]
    What it does show is that it didn’t take place. If it had he would have remembered every detail.

  10. The window is still closed, i’m not expecting my carrier pigeon apologies.

    “Nobody gives a toss or is talking about Rann, it’s a non-issue” – HA!

  11. [(just think,30 yrs ago an AMDAHL V7/8 would and FACOM M180 plus assorted DIGITAL and UNIVAC was considered state of the art- and occupied all of unit 9-equipped with Halon gas, antistatic mats and containment rooms tended to by 10+personnel)

    NOW ALL THAT IS ONE LAPTOP]

    Yeah, but 640k is more than enough

  12. Contrary to what some companies tell you, it is possible to erase (that means permanently) from a hard drive. It takes iterations but it can be done: the zeros and ones cannot be resurrected.

  13. [What it does show is that it didn’t take place. If it had he would have remembered every detail.]
    If he had sex with her in his office or at a golf course, or anywhere else, then I don’t think he would state “I never had sex with her”, because he would know that if anyone ever found evidence that it was true, his political career would be over.

  14. HSO

    I saw some of the report on Antarctica, and have some understanding of AGW. I guess in the end it depends on how old you are now as to how much you’ll be affected 🙂

    We will get a fair amount of warning about the WAIS, and even more about the EAIS. I don’t believe either will collapse during my lifetime (I expect to be around for another 50 years or so). The larger ice shelves (Ross and Ronne) will have to break up first. And they haven’t yet. Deglaciation does take a while and remember temps have been around 6 warmer down there and it hasn’t deglaciated.
    http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press_releases/press_release.php?id=1052

    We still have time to prevent the collapse of those ice sheets.

    I am a lot less confident about the Greenland Ice sheet. There hasn’t been any ‘observed’ period that has had CO2 levels as high as now, and a GIS. That’s about 6m sea level there… That’s where the real problem is. That and the loss of the Himalayan glaciers…

    Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh crikey… So depressing.

  15. [Contrary to what some companies tell you, it is possible to erase (that means permanently) from a hard drive. It takes iterations but it can be done: the zeros and ones cannot be resurrected.]

    And very easily

  16. Some time ago, Boerwar asked if people were prepared to declare whether or not we thought we could turn it around in terms of climate change or whether we thought it had gone too far. Actually thinking about that it was possibly not how Boerwar posed it, but no doubt he’ll correct me.
    Anyway, I said at the time I was pessimistic about our being able to turn it around in time.
    The Antartica changes scare the bejeesus out of me.

  17. It is funny, really: 640k is still enough to run a decently written program. If you incorporate overlays there is no limit: it’ll be a bit slow but doable.

  18. Well Bludgers, tomorrow is a big day!
    The end of Turnball?
    Abbott or Andrews seize control of the Liberals?
    Penny Wong and Ian McFarlane declare their love for each other, and skip hand in hand down the corridors of Parliament House?
    Milne and Andrew Bolt both slit their wrists?
    Ah, the anticipation! 😉

  19. [Dario: as Roy and HG would say, you played the “High C” on your “instrument”?]

    They were more the flute fans… a bit on the ‘small’ side 😉

  20. [Low-carbon road map for China
    IT’S a road map that will only allow green cars. By 2050, all new power sources in China will be either renewable or nuclear – and this change to a low-carbon future can take place while boosting economic growth.

    China’s low-carbon road map, presented to the Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development in Beijing last week, claims that the global shift towards low-carbon technology “will allow China to capitalise on new growth opportunities as a supplier to satisfy increasing global demand” for such technologies.]

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427353.200-lowcarbon-road-map-for-china.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news

  21. [Well Bludgers, tomorrow is a big day!
    The end of Turnball?]
    Yeah, I can’t wait. I’ll start with ABC Breakfast and work my way from there.

  22. The most disappointing part about this rubbish re Rann is that if people can’t stick their noses out of the private lives of others, we are going to follow the Americans down the same path.

    How has Bob been posting on the issue today? With his head well and truly down the gutter no doubt?

  23. [Well it works in distracting the thread from GW, ETS and Turnbull.]
    TP, being manipulated and they don’t even know it 🙂

    Rudd and his comments on Copenhagen is the main story on BBC news just now.

    Rudd at awards dinner with a “staggering 51 MPs” I can see the headlines now 😉
    [Disabled people are a step closer to getting fully funded care, with the Rudd government announcing it will conduct a feasibility study into a no-fault insurance scheme.

    On Monday night, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told the national disability awards dinner that Australia was on the cusp of “historic social reform”.]

    [“It would require transformative change to the disability service system: how it is delivered, funded and administered,” he told the gathering at Parliament House, which included a staggering 51 MPs.]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/govt-to-probe-nofault-insurance-20091123-j0m6.html

  24. [I just can’t imagine Andrews as LOTL. I mean, surely not… right?]
    Surely even the Liberals aren’t stupid enough to make Abbott or Andrews leader?

    But Mumble is right, it would be pointless getting rid of Turnbull and replacing him with Hockey who would just go through the same turmoil.

    If the party tomorrow decides to follow the climate change deniers, then they NEED a denier as leader who can actually believe what he says.

  25. Vera: We can thank Bill Shorten, a tireless advocate for the disabled!
    This government gets on with the job, while the other side squabble over whether the earth is flat or not. 😀

  26. [Disabled people are a step closer to getting fully funded care, with the Rudd government announcing it will conduct a feasibility study into a no-fault insurance scheme.]

    Great news. I couldn’t believe the report wouldn’t be finished until mid 2011, but I guess these things take time…

  27. Bob = shilling. Any the wiser?

    The Libs will not commit hari kiri in the party room tomorrow. They will be thinking that tomorrow never comes.

  28. I’ll make a prediction.

    If Turnbull loses the Liberal leadership sometime this week over this issue, he will resign from parliament immediately.

    He only wants to be Liberal leader if everyone ultimately follows his rules. If people don’t let him have his go he will just leave, I don’t think he shares a bond with his party the way Howard did.

  29. Thanks, Astrobleme. I’ll go do some research tomorrow evening. The think that’s got me worried is the enhanced rate of change that’s happening with the Greenland ice shelf and the glaciers, and I hadn’t anticipated Antartica would start to be involved this early.
    I am particularly concerned that the positive feed back loops are going to kick in sooner than anyone anticipated.
    It ain’t me I’m concerned about I must emphasize. I’ll just exit stage left.

  30. [Surely even the Liberals aren’t stupid enough to make Abbott or Andrews leader?]

    If the sceptics manage to roll Turnball and McFarlane, Turnball has to resign, and then Minchin as the self-appointed leader of the far right faction puts up Abbott as a replacement. Presumably then Hockey would stand as the representative of the moderate faction.
    Hockey vs Abbott: Hmmmmmmmm!

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