Morgan: 56.5-43.5

Morgan seems to be back to reporting weekly face-to-face polling, at least for the time being: the latest survey of 1014 respondents has Labor down 1.5 per cent to 45 per cent and the Coalition down 2 per cent to 36.5 per cent, changing the two-party vote from 56-44 to 56.5-43.5. The Greens are up a point to 9 per cent, Family First two to 3 per cent.

Elsewhere:

• Previously believed bound for marginal Macarthur, Labor MP Chris Hayes has now been offered safe Fowler to compensate for Reid MP Laurie Ferguson’s accommodation in his existing seat of Werriwa. This is despite the fact that Ferguson wanted Fowler while Hayes preferred to remain in Werriwa, which was impossible because Fowler’s Right-controlled branches did not want Ferguson on their turf. The arrangement is a win for Julia Gillard and the “soft Left” over Anthony Albanese and the “hard Left”, which wanted Werriwa to go to Damien Ogden of the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union. However, the drama may not be over yet: also out in the cold is Ed Husic of the Communications Electrial and Plumbing Union, whom the Right still wishes to accommodate. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports talk he might replace Roger Price in Chifley. Macarthur presumably available again to its candidate from 2007, Nick Bleasdale.

• Jennie George has announced she will retire at the next election, opening up a preselection contest in her seat of Throsby. A factional deal in place since 1997 has given Throsby to the hard Left and Fowler to the Right; Alex Arnold of the Illawarra Mercury reports the Left has everything in place to deliver the seat to Stephen Jones of the Community and Public Sector Union. The Mercury’s Brett Cox reports “no love lost between factions over the issue, with the Left accusing the Right of a behind the scenes campaign to oust Ms George and discredit Mr Jones’ links to the region”. Local Australian Workers Union branch secretary Andy Gillespie has labelled the Right dissidents “hypocrites”, as they had acquiesced in the imposition Lylea McMahon in the state seat of Shellharbour.

• The Liberal preselection for Bennelong looms as a contest between former tennis star John Alexander and Mark Chan, a 25-year-old manager for GE Capital whose Chinese background is being sold as an asset in the seat. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the party has brought the preselection process forward so it can capitalise on Alexander’s exposure over summer as a tennis commentator. This would seem to suggest he is considered the front-runner.

• Saffron Howden of the Northern Star reports Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock is the “likely Nationals candidate” for Richmond. Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout is considered a likely Liberal candidate.

• After a state and federal political career stretching back to 1965, Tasmanian Liberal MP Michael Hodgman has announced he will not contest the March state election due to ill health. Despite being 71 and suffering emphysema, Hodgman had remained on the six-person Liberal line-up for Denison when it was finalised last month. The party will now have to find a replacement candidate, and enter the election without a sitting member in the division. Among those who missed out at preselection was Hobart alderman and regular independent candidate Marti Zucco.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,146 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

Comments Page 40 of 43
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  1. [X has said he won’t support a delay, although he’s not a fan of the ETS (he might vote for it yet though).]
    Do you think he will vote for it if it looks like it is going to pass? You know, just so he can say that he was there supporting some sort of action?

    It would look a bit strange going for re-election saying he voted against it when both Labor and Liberal voted for it (which after all is how he got elected by appealing to both Labor and Liberal voters).

  4. Finns or any mobile phone IT experts out there

    What do you know about finding “shadows” on SIM cards?

    [An associate of Ms Chantelois said she had given the network her mobile phone and SIM card.

    Although alleged text messages between the pair has been deleted, Channel 7 was having the card searched for “shadows” which could remain despite the messages being removed.]

  6. [I guess you’d trade me for a violent thug from Christmas Island. ]
    I’d trade you for HALF a violent thug from Christmas Island.
    [Must make your bleeding heart throb knowing you are letting in some poor innocent violent crims out on the street.]
    No, just knowing I had gotten rid of you would be enough comfort.

  10. vp,

    There is no doubt the Lib trogs are sitting on an arsenal of dynamite. Unfortunately, they all seem to have a pernicious smoking addiction and are involved in some sort of mass group therapy to get through their immediate danger without lighting a durry. However, one flame to appease an uncontrollable desire by one individual and its curtains for the whole group.

    Good news is that if it did happen they’d qualify for the Darwin awards.

  11. I wonder why Martin O’Shannessy saw fit to post on Mumble and not on PB when all the questions were being canvassed here?

    On second thoughts, it may have got a bit hot in the kitchen here!!! 😉

  13. Rann claims he:

    1. Didn’t have sex with this woman on a golf course.
    2. Didn’t have sex with this woman during sitting of Parliament.

    Now what did the woman actually claim?

    1. They had sex in a car parked next to a golf course.
    2. They had sex in his office

    So why would Rann deny invented situations that were never claimed in the first place? Come on people, put the pieces together already.

  16. [Leaked e-mails in Britain from scientists (?) saying that AGW wa an anthropogenic (sniggle) invention]

    Oh, I thought you said from AGW deniers… thought you meant a different set of emails to the previous ones

  17. [So why would Rann deny invented situations that were never claimed in the first place? Come on people, put the pieces together already.]
    You’re an idiot. He clearly asserted that he didn’t have sex with her at all.

    If that turns out to be untrue then he should resign.

  22. Dio@1954:

    [Finns or any mobile phone IT experts out there

    What do you know about finding “shadows” on SIM cards?]

    In computers, when you delete a file, it is not really deleted, it’s just that the memory is available to be reused.

    If you don’t reuse it, the data that is still there, not removed, can be accessed by IT experts.

    To be really sure that a file has been deleted, it needs to be written over with other information, or with all zeroes or all ones or random digits.

    On the Mac system, there are two options:

    “empty trash”

    and

    “secure empty trash”

    the second of which means that the files you have trashed have been written over with zeroes, ones, or random digits. If all you do is empty trash, the area of the disk is available to be used again, but retains the files until something else overwrites them.

    I assume “shadows” is like the ordinary empty trash command.

  23. SO

    [You’re an idiot. He clearly asserted that he didn’t have sex with her at all.

    If that turns out to be untrue then he should resign.]

    If there is no proof one way or the other, what matters is whether he is believed or not.

    Rann cited less plausible scenarios than were alleged.

  24. Thanks – so if Labor, Greens and X vote for a vote, as it were, then what is the point of Liberal Senate voting to not vote? Key decision would still be the full Liberal (Coalition??) party room – would it not?

  25. [TTH

    I noticed that too.]
    Oh for crap sake, he said he didn’t have sex with her AT ALL, not in a car, not in his office, not in a car next to a golf course, not on a golf course.

  28. [If there is no proof one way or the other, what matters is whether he is believed or not.]
    So, what do you think will happen? Will he resign or not?

  29. [What do you know about finding “shadows” on SIM cards?]

    Diog, not too sure if SIM card works the same way as hard or flash drive.

    Normal drive doesnt actually “delete” data as such. It’s only the reference to the data that was deleted. That’s why the data is “recoverable” if it is still there. But these data are progressively “replaced” by new data in the drive sectors. Once “replaced” means GONE.

    So it all depends on whether the data has been replaced or not.

  30. SO

    Sometimes I wonder if you’re not too bright. He went out of his way to deny scenarios that were never alleged to have happened.

  31. Shows On,

    Absolutely right!

    Further, Rann has the most to lose if he is not telling the truth. Channel 7 clearly left traps for the Rann to fall into. However he has chosen to deny.

    Why? Probably because he is telling the truth.

  32. OMG, the major postings here are the stupid rubbish about supposed bonking, STILL, at the same time the report on the 7.30 Report on the advanced movement of glaciers and the ice sheet in and on Antartica, should have most people with even a minimal imagination, shuddering at the horrible consequences.

  34. [In computers, when you delete a file, it is not really deleted, it’s just that the memory is available to be reused.

    If you don’t reuse it, the data that is still there, not removed, can be accessed by IT experts. ]

    I’m sure Rann is fully aware of this, and I wonder whether he would have made the rebuttal he has given the fact that supposed damning text messages could possibly have been retrieved. Sounds to me more like those texts didn’t say what she says they do, and she is better off with them having ‘disappeared’ and making shit up.

  37. [So, what do you think will happen? Will he resign or not?]

    I’m waiting to see what evidence there is and how that plays out.

    If there is no smoking gun, he won’t resign.

  38. Dio
    Any text msg is stored fro a minimum 7 days on the carriers mainframe.

    If monitored/part of an investigation-who knows?

    the handset itself, stores betweeen 20-200 msgs depending on handset memory.

    if the SIM has been swiped(demagnetised)- nada
    tho the handset itself may still store msgs depending on model

    if a blackberry was used by either party- a whole new ballgame

  39. [Sometimes I wonder if you’re not too bright. He went out of his way to deny scenarios that were never alleged to have happened.]
    LOL! You don’t know what you are talking about about so you revert to a personal attack!

    You obviously didn’t listen or watch his complete media interview today. He denied having sex with her AT ALL.
    [“I have not had sex with her…”]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/23/2751235.htm?section=justin
    What part of “I have not had sex with her” don’t you understand?

    Again, he has claimed he never had sex with her, if that turns out to be untrue then I think he should resign.

  40. Andrew Bolt. Andrew Bolt. Why is this person given the time of day? He’s an attention seeking creature whose whole contribution to human endeavour is to minimise the possibility of any sensible debate of anything. Rubbish.

  41. Dio@1977:

    [So the SMSs might still be retrievable from her mobile phone. We’ll have to see how they go.]

    Depends on the memory the phone has. Depends on the order or lack of order that the phone’s algorithm uses in determining which parts of the SIM memory to overwrite after SMS messages are deleted.

    I haven’t been following the Rann scenario much, but am I right in thinking this is a few years ago? If so, I would think that, unless the phone has a humungous memory, the shadows would have long since disappeared.

  42. If the vote is postponed, then what Minchin seems to want will probably come to pass. Although, if Rudd holds off till late August to call a DD election, in reality, Minchin and Co will have ten months to run his “scare campaign” on the ETS!

    I wonder if this is what the Greens really want. If the combined forces of the Libs, Nats and their MSM cheer squad were successful, bang goes any chance of any ETS!

    [It’s another way of saying what Minchin has been telling colleagues: “I’d like a five-week election to run a scare campaign on the ETS. It would be Kevin Rudd who gets the fright of his life.”
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/sceptic-shows-his-true-colours/story-e6frg6zo-1225801828567

  43. Tim Flannery on LL is saying that the scientists in the e-mails are not denying CC: they are saying we need more research to understand WHY it’s happening.

  44. [I’m waiting to see what evidence there is and how that plays out.

    If there is no smoking gun, he won’t resign.]
    Do you now understand that he asserted that he hasn’t had sex with her AT ALL?

    He didn’t JUST say he never had sex with her in his parliamentary office.
    He didn’t JUST say he never had sex with her on a golf course.

    He said that he has NEVER had sex with her AT ALL.

  45. Maybe Stokes should organise sex for Mark Riley so he might be able to do a better job!

    Who should resign? One of the most competent Premiers in the country who is accused of having a sexual encounter OR an incompetent journalist who can’t get his facts straight?

    Mark Riley – RESIGN!

  47. I know politics in SA can be a bit boring but lets avoid reducing ourselves to the Murdoch view of life that scandal is far more important than the rest of life and reality.
    Its amazing how much of the media is quick to assume the truth of something and then move on to the potential consequences which can only be relevant if the assertions are true. Stephen Mayne, Hendrik Gout and Laurie Oakes on Crikey for starters.
    While Rann is no angel, when mobile phone records etc can fairly readily be obtained, especially if you are being sued for defamation, and big cheque books can tempt all sorts of inside spilling of beans, its a far too high risk for Rann to be denying this stuff if it is true.
    Rann intends to be around for several years yet, so he is unlikely to be taking obvious risks when he has a perfectly good confess and avoid option.
    If Channel 7 don’t know that charges have been laid then ???????? laid by police – nothing to do with Rann pressing charges. There are plenty of other witnesses.
    And the gossip will be irrelevant in the assault case. Being angry with someone who is friendly with your wife won’t even get to be evidence in a trial – just a bit relevant in penalty mitigation.

  49. SO

    I know exactly what I am saying

    I am fully aware of what he said and that he said he had never had sex with her.

    I am also fully aware that he denied two specific scenarios which he had never been mentioned.

    You fail to understand the significance of someone denying something they were never accused of. Why would someone deny something they had never been accused of? Think about it.

  50. [OMG, the major postings here are the stupid rubbish about supposed bonking, STILL, at the same time the report on the 7.30 Report on the advanced movement of glaciers and the ice sheet]

    we all know why.

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