Morgan: 56.5-43.5

Morgan seems to be back to reporting weekly face-to-face polling, at least for the time being: the latest survey of 1014 respondents has Labor down 1.5 per cent to 45 per cent and the Coalition down 2 per cent to 36.5 per cent, changing the two-party vote from 56-44 to 56.5-43.5. The Greens are up a point to 9 per cent, Family First two to 3 per cent.

Elsewhere:

• Previously believed bound for marginal Macarthur, Labor MP Chris Hayes has now been offered safe Fowler to compensate for Reid MP Laurie Ferguson’s accommodation in his existing seat of Werriwa. This is despite the fact that Ferguson wanted Fowler while Hayes preferred to remain in Werriwa, which was impossible because Fowler’s Right-controlled branches did not want Ferguson on their turf. The arrangement is a win for Julia Gillard and the “soft Left” over Anthony Albanese and the “hard Left”, which wanted Werriwa to go to Damien Ogden of the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union. However, the drama may not be over yet: also out in the cold is Ed Husic of the Communications Electrial and Plumbing Union, whom the Right still wishes to accommodate. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports talk he might replace Roger Price in Chifley. Macarthur presumably available again to its candidate from 2007, Nick Bleasdale.

• Jennie George has announced she will retire at the next election, opening up a preselection contest in her seat of Throsby. A factional deal in place since 1997 has given Throsby to the hard Left and Fowler to the Right; Alex Arnold of the Illawarra Mercury reports the Left has everything in place to deliver the seat to Stephen Jones of the Community and Public Sector Union. The Mercury’s Brett Cox reports “no love lost between factions over the issue, with the Left accusing the Right of a behind the scenes campaign to oust Ms George and discredit Mr Jones’ links to the region”. Local Australian Workers Union branch secretary Andy Gillespie has labelled the Right dissidents “hypocrites”, as they had acquiesced in the imposition Lylea McMahon in the state seat of Shellharbour.

• The Liberal preselection for Bennelong looms as a contest between former tennis star John Alexander and Mark Chan, a 25-year-old manager for GE Capital whose Chinese background is being sold as an asset in the seat. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the party has brought the preselection process forward so it can capitalise on Alexander’s exposure over summer as a tennis commentator. This would seem to suggest he is considered the front-runner.

• Saffron Howden of the Northern Star reports Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock is the “likely Nationals candidate” for Richmond. Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout is considered a likely Liberal candidate.

• After a state and federal political career stretching back to 1965, Tasmanian Liberal MP Michael Hodgman has announced he will not contest the March state election due to ill health. Despite being 71 and suffering emphysema, Hodgman had remained on the six-person Liberal line-up for Denison when it was finalised last month. The party will now have to find a replacement candidate, and enter the election without a sitting member in the division. Among those who missed out at preselection was Hobart alderman and regular independent candidate Marti Zucco.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,146 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  2. [ But Scarpat its only the BOAT PEOPLE that count ]

    Andrew, I think that you have hit the nail on the head. We have been running under the impression that TTH is numerically literate. He thinks that 1500 or so is a bigger number than 50,000. Perhaps mathematics are only taught in southern Queensland where the optimum curvature of the banana is calculated. The people of the north pick them and the people of the south bend them.

  7. [And bloody AS was rated equal with climate change in importance as an issue.]
    What are we going to do in 20 years when thousands of Pacific Islanders need a place to live?

    I seriously hope Australians have gotten over their moral outrage by then and just CALM DOWN.

  9. [Oh, so you DO what police to lay charges by rolling a dice! Sorry, my mistake.]

    The police aren’t in charge of Australia’s immigration.

    Don’t try and make out they are. The Rudd government is in control Australia’s immigration. Rudd needs to grow a pair already and take responsibility instead of pawning off the matter to police everytime things get difficult for him.

  12. [And bloody AS was rated equal with climate change in importance as an issue.]

    Only because they’re in the headlines at the moment. And just watch the Libs keep pushing the AS issue right through to the election. It’s all they’ve got.

  14. Can the left in here tell me what they think should happen to the individuals involved in the gang fights in Christmas Island detention centre?

    Yeah bring them to Townsville and let them loose in Flinders Street East on a Friday and Saturday night with all your mates.

  15. The Tories here have extremely odd morality. Mike Rann (allegedly) having sex is a bad thing. Keeping asylum seekers out of Australia is a good thing.
    Oh yes. And allowing man made climate change to destroy the planet is even better?!

    Truly, a moral code twistier than a pretzel.

  18. [It would be interesting to know the rate of hits on your site by each bludger by that bludger after each of his posts.]

    Not entirely sure why, to be honest. Nor is the data there in any form that I know how to access.

  19. [What are we going to do in 20 years when thousands of Pacific Islanders need a place to live?]

    Put them all up for bed and breakfast at your place.

  20. [The police aren’t in charge of Australia’s immigration.]
    Wow, you’re learning!

    They are in charge of investigating crimes though.
    [Rudd needs to grow a pair already and take responsibility instead of pawning off the matter to police everytime things get difficult for him.]
    Oh, so you do what a police state! At least you don’t hide being a total nutter.

  23. “What are we going to do in 20 years when thousands of Pacific Islanders need a place to live?”

    Townsville seems to be a friendly enough place.

  24. [Yeah bring them to Townsville and let them loose in Flinders Street East on a Friday and Saturday night with all your mates.]

    Flinders Street East is probably one of the safest night spots in the state. Try again.

    The “parkies” get into fights with each other ocassionally but generally keep to themselves.

  26. hmm,

    [oz_f

    RT: @timhollo: Latest – Senate Libs say they’ll support Fielding’s delay motion, effectively forcing party room to oppose tomorrow’s offer. 33 minutes ago from Echofon ]

  28. [Oh, so you do what a police state! At least you don’t hide being a total nutter.]

    Yes, the Australian government being in charge of Australia’s immigration is a “police state”

    These people aren’t even bloody Australian citizens you numb skull.

    Come to Australia though, and Kev’ll fix you up! Even if you are a violent thug and have tendancy to start fights with broomsticks, pool cues and tree branches.

  31. [Yes, the Australian government being in charge of Australia’s immigration is a “police state”]
    If you say so.
    [These people aren’t even bloody Australian citizens you numb skull.]
    What? So the police shouldn’t investigate crimes committed by people who aren’t citizens, you’re off your rocker.
    [Come to Australia though, and Kev’ll fix you up! Even if you are a violent thug and have tendancy to start fights with broomsticks, pool cues and tree branches.]
    Well the government lets you stay here, so yeah I guess there are some problems with the immigration policy.

  32. The Greens will probably vote against the delay. Need two others to defect using their “rights as Liberals” to dissent.

  33. [Come to Australia though, and Kev’ll fix you up! Even if you are a violent thug and have tendancy to start fights with broomsticks, pool cues and tree branches.]

    Those whiter than white English backpackers in Bondi NEVER do anything like that. Only brown asylum seekers behave badly. Thanks for reminding us,

  34. [The Greens will probably vote against the delay]

    I read a report with Fielding saying he had the Greens support but I don’t know how much of this was a figment of his imagination.

  35. Holy crap Frank. Surely that can’t be true. I can’t see ANY political uipside for them in voting for another delay! Even the AGW sceptics out there won’t like that!

  38. [Those whiter than white English backpackers in Bondi NEVER do anything like that. Only brown asylum seekers behave badly. Thanks for reminding us,]

    Especially whenever there is a sporting event involving their home team.

  39. Pretty sure I haven’t seen anyone mention this yet, but! Martin O’Shannessy’s reply to Moose here clearly says that they “always” ask voting intentions before the normal poll questions.

    Therefore, in their survey “after” the 52/48 outlier, they “must” have asked those questions prior to those on the AS’s.

    This should have been given more prominence that it has by media other than News Ltd. I still think it smells to high heaven!

    [Moose says:
    16 November 2009 at 3:06 pm

    Newspoll usually ran their political questions over the weekend in an omnibus (collection of short phone surveys.) The order of questions would be:

    * Demographics (age, gender etc)
    * Voting Intention (state/federal in alternating weeks)
    * Other political questions if any (e.g. budget, asylum seekers)
    * Everything else (soap powder etc)

    Question ordering and was always a concern and political questions would always be first.]

    [Martin O’Shannessy says:
    16 November 2009 at 3:53 pm

    George Megalogenis and Moose are right, we always ask voting intention first followed by leader’s ratings and then any other questions pertinent to the poll. This has been the order, unbroken since 1985. We never precede our poll questions with others except for those demographics required to qualify. Martin O’Shannessy CEO Newspoll.]
    http://mumble.com.au/?p=935#comments

  41. [Good question, who’s up for re-election in the Senate ?]

    This ‘list’ should help with that:

    http://aph.gov.au/Senate/senators/sen_exp.htm

    As far as I’m aware the only senator that’s announced their retirement so far is Senator Troeth. The Tasmanian ALP preselected someone other than Senator O’Brien but the PM has claimed that person will be elected ‘over his dead body’.

  42. GG,

    It’s a two stage thing isn’t it? To vote or no (Yes would be MT’s demise, no would be DD trigger).

    A vote in the Senate would consign the oppos to oblivion.

  43. [Good question, who’s up for re-election in the Senate ?]
    Heffernan, Fierrvanti-Wells, Mason, Brandis, Trood, Minchin, Fisher, Ferguson, Betz, Barnett, Parry, Ronaldson, McGauran, Troeth, Back, Corman, Adams and of course Humphries who is a territory senator.

    Well I strongly doubt Minchin will vote for it after the huge deal he made about it being an “abomination”. Erica Betz is a denier, so his Fiervvanti-Wells and Mason, McGauran has already said he won’t vote for any ETS. Troeth and Ferguson are both retiring when their terms expire.

  44. I’m on a roll today!!

    Not content with informing you BEFORE Rann’s press conference that he would deny the affair, I dug deep and came out with this one at 8:50.

    [Not quite yet but it can’t be far away. I’m waiting for the polygraph to be wheeled out with Kyle and Jackie doing the inquisition.]

    And now what do we have

    [A MARRIED ex-barmaid has challenged Australia’s longest-serving Premier to take a lie detector test after he strongly denied having had sex with her. ]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/ex-barmaid-michelle-chantelois-challenges-south-australian-premier-miek-rann-to-take-lie-detector-test-over-sex-claims/story-e6frf7jo-1225802571720

    I believe my eGrechious error can now be forgiven and I can return from the leper colony. 😀

  45. [Has Senator X stated his view on delay after Copenhagen?]

    He is supportive of some sort of delay as well as far as I’m aware. His delay is based on the premise that certain economic modelling be provided.

  46. [Senate Libs say they’ll support Fielding’s delay motion, effectively forcing party room to oppose tomorrow’s offer]
    ALL of them?

    How the hell can the Senate libs delay the vote again when their party leader says he wants a vote this week!?

    The Senate Liberals have conducted a coup d’etat against the House liberals! Nick Minchin is now the defacto leader of the opposition!

  47. Laocoon

    [Has Senator X stated his view on delay after Copenhagen?]

    X has said he won’t support a delay, although he’s not a fan of the ETS (he might vote for it yet though).

  48. [He is supportive of some sort of delay as well as far as I’m aware. His delay is based on the premise that certain economic modelling be provided.]
    He stated today he thinks there should be a vote:
    [However, Senator Xenophon said today that while he did not support an emissions trading scheme in its current form, he wanted the debate to proceed.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/lib-senators-join-fielding-push-to-delay-vote-on-emissions-trading-scheme/story-e6frgczf-1225802057165

  49. Diog,

    Michelle first on the polygraph, I think. I know there is a condition that makes people dream up things that they wanted to / thought would happen. Are we in this territory?

  50. [Well the government lets you stay here, so yeah I guess there are some problems with the immigration policy.]

    I guess you’d trade me for a violent thug from Christmas Island. Must make your bleeding heart throb knowing you are letting in some poor innocent violent crims out on the street.

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