Newspoll: ??-??

Following last week’s surprising and almost certainly rogue Newspoll result, The Australian sent its pollster out into the field again over the weekend for an eagerly anticipated follow-up survey. However, when the results were published yesterday, all that was offered was attitudinal results on asylum seekers – although breakdowns by party support made clear that voting intention had also been ascertained. This sent Gary Morgan on the offensive:

Newspoll should have conducted another poll as soon as possible when they saw the dramatic change in their results – and if different, released the data to correct the misconceptions caused by their “rogue” poll … A statistical analysis of the data reported on Australians’ attitudes to “boat people” issues – specifically the breakdown by “Political support” – suggests the ALP vote in that poll was very strong. The percentage supporting each political party clearly should have been released. Polls and their publishers should not seek to set the agenda by selectively releasing polling data. Polls and their publishers are powerful but with that power comes responsibility.

Queried by Andrew Crook of Crikey, The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell explained that “even Crikey” should be able to understand that a non-fortnightly set of voting intention figures would cause a disturbance in the force. Mitchell further invoked a Beatles-and-the-Stones style arrangement between Newspoll and Nielsen in which they have agreed not to step on each other’s releases. Yet just one month ago, on the same day that Nielsen produced its regular monthly poll, The Australian published a “special Newspoll survey” on the Liberal leadership in between its regular fortnightly polls, and was not in the least bit shy about informing us that the sample produced the same 58-42 split in favour of Labor as recorded the previous week. In fairness, it should be noted that Crikey “understands that on Sunday morning, Newspoll chief Martin O’Shannessy contacted his Nielsen counterpart John Stirton and agreed not to release the two-party preferred vote to The Australian”.

My own concern with all this is that I was hoping for a new poll result to hang my regular set of electoral updates off, and didn’t get one. Here they are:

• The saga surrounding the YouTube Downfall parody aimed at Mitchell MP Alex Hawke over his feud with former Right ally and state upper house MP David Clarke has lifted a rock on preselection manoeuvres for safe Liberal state seats. Hawke-Hitler is portrayed in the video castigating himself for having backed Hills Shire councillor Andrew Jefferies to depose incumbent Wayne Merton in Baulkham Hills. The Clarke forces have been hoping the seat might instead go to Damien Tudehope, who has a not inconsiderable public profile as spokesman for the NSW Family Association – and whose son Thomas has just resigned as Malcolm Turnbull’s media adviser after being linked to the aforesaid YouTube video. The infamous episode where 40 Clarke supporters showed up at a Young Liberal branch meeting at Hawke’s office, prompting Hawke’s staff to call the police, reportedly occurred as part of efforts to secure Baulkham Hills for Tudehope. In Castle Hill, Clarke faction operative Dominic Perrottet (whose brother Charles has just resigned as Clarke’s chief-of-staff after he too was linked to the YouTube video) has been plotting to depose incumbent Michael Richardson. On the other side of the pendulum, Hawke is apparently backing another ally, state Young Liberals president Scott Farlow, for the seat of Drummoyne (which Labor’s Angela D’Amore holds by a margin of 7.6 per cent), while Clarke man Kevin Conolly hopes to again contest Riverstone, where he ran against Labor’s John Aquilina in 2007.

• Stephanie Peatling of the Sydney Morning Herald reveals the identity of the abortive Right challenger to Philip Ruddock in Berowra: Richard Quinn, a Hunters Hill councillor. A Ruddock supporter specifically identifies Quinn’s backers as “the Taliban faction”, meaning the forces associated with David Clarke. Quinn has “now expressed interest in Bennelong”, which would put him up against former tennis player and unsuccessful Bradfield preselection aspirant John Alexander, plus another previously unheralded entrant in “businessman Mark Chan”.

• Lisa Carty of the Sydney Morning Herald explains Labor’s recent western Sydney preselection shenanigans in terms of a deal in which the Right will retain its hold on Fowler following Julia Irwin’s retirement at the next election, despite the numbers in local branches being finely poised between the two factions. The Right’s favoured candidate for Fowler is Ed Husic of the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union, who was defeated by Louise Markus when he ran in Greenway at the 2004 election. In return for not pursuing a claim in Fowler, the Left will be awarded Werriwa at the expense of Right incumbent Chris Hayes. However, state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite is quoted in the article saying there is “no deal to shift (Hayes) to Macarthur”. That hasn’t stopped an avalanche of reports about whether Werriwa will go to Reid MP Laurie Ferguson, as proposed by Julia Gillard and the soft Left, or Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union organiser Damien Ogden, the candidate of Anthony Albanese and the hard Left.

• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports claims Labor internal polling of 650 voters in Robertson shows Belinda Neal set to be dumped by a swing of “about 20 per cent”, although this has naturally been denied by state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite. The report also quotes Labor sources suggesting recent talk of a run for the premiership by her husband John Della Bosca has been raised for use as a “bargaining chip” to protect Neal’s position.

• The Queensland Liberal National Party has preselected Hajnal Ban, Logan councillor, Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007 and recipient of an eye-watering Russian surgical procedure to lengthen her legs, as its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. Unsuccessful candidates included Cameron Thompson, the former Liberal member for
Blair (who was presumably handicapped by an understanding that the seat was the domain of the Nationals), and Gold Coast councillor and former children’s television presenter Bob La Castra.

• Former Senator, one-time Democrats leader and blogosphere identity Andrew Bartlett will run for the Greens at the federal election in Brisbane, which Labor’s Arch Bevis holds with a diminished post-redistribution margin against the LNP of 3.8 per cent. Antony Green explains why he won’t win.

• Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports Labor preselection nominations for Canning, Cowan and Swan will close on December 1, and candidates will be chosen by mid-December.

• The Macquarie Street blog of Poll Bludger regular Oz informs us that NSW upper house MP Gordon Moyes, long estranged from the Christian Democratic Party from which he was elected, has announced he is joining Family First.

• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reports that Anna Bligh will respond to the state’s review on accountability by moving to impose a $1000 cap on political donations unless the federal government does likewise before July 2010, as well as imposing a ban on “success fees” to lobbyists.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,656 comments on “Newspoll: ??-??”

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  1. Triton@1345:

    [ It doesn’t matter how patiently or how often you explain to TTH the situation regarding forcible removal,…..It needs to be drilled into TTH’s brain once and for all that Indonesia won’t accept them if they are forced off the boat.]

    Triton, truthy is a troll.

    Don’t feed the troll.

  3. If the 78 do not want to leave the OC someone will have to use force. Who?

    Alternatively, someone will have to make them an offer they can’t refuse. Who and what?

  5. [I am referring solely to offers of special treatment. They’ve been offered but the asylum seekers don’t deserve any.]

    I doubt very much that the government expected the offer to be both rejected and released through the media.

    Watching Evans tonight I was struck by the fact that the release and making common knowledge of the offer through the media sends out a strong message to all other waiting boat people in Indonesia and elsewhere as well as potential asylum seekers that they only have to follow similar strategies to this lot and the gates to heaven will be opened!

    The Coalition have a lot to gain politically by the government being held over a barrel and be forced through circumstances outside their control to capitulate to the asylum seekers demands, (as do the AS’s themselves) as they can then easily project an image of the government as being week in regards “illegal immigrants” and border control. (an open doors policy) Liberals strong – Labor week!

    Words can be bullets and Evans was well aware of the ramifications if Kerry had muscled him into inadvertently making an admission or statement that could immediately be pounced upon by a desperate Opposition for political gain as well as give comfort to intending AS boat travellers that there is now a range of options open to them to achieve settlement in Australia far easier than it had been previously!

    [Turnbull is pointing that out in lights, and by doing so he makes it harder for the government to make such offers.]

    He is taking every advantage that his strategy group can grab throughout this unfortunate and challenging episode for Labor.

    One major problem that the Coalition are not allowing for in their desperation to gain electoral traction in this issue, is that if it goes too badly for Labor and the genie can’t be put back into the bottle, then they will have to wear the consequences of that as a future government with possibly an accelerated movement of people seeking asylum due to global warming and political turmoil!

    Two classical examples of this in recent times. The US supporting the Taliban in their struggle against the USSR on Afghanistan. The Pakistan Government kowtowing to the Taliban and making a deal with them and handing control of the boarder territories in exchange for the Taliban remaining peaceful there and not trying to expand their interest.

    In both cases, it came back to bite them savagely on the arse!

  6. VP Howard would never have let this crap go on this long.

    Rudd is weak as you know what and his handling of this really shows how indecisive he really is!

  9. Enough is enough!

    Those on board the OV should be given a choice. Get off the boat or get taken back to Sri Lanka.

    It is becoming a farce that the Australian government should be held to ransom by these people. If we take take them to our shores we will be seen as weak and will send the wrong message to people smugglers.

    You give an inch and they take a mile! Well enough is enough.

    And don’t you Greens give me any Howard-lite nonesense. Howard would have let them drown.

  10. I don’t think there’s any doubt that TTH sincerely believes the arguments he’s advancing, so I don’t see why he should have to suffer being called a troll. I’m also not keen on Dario’s conviction that he’s under some sort of obligation to sit at his computer all evening, ready and waiting to snap to attention whenever Dario commands.

  11. Centre

    Smith took SL off the table as mentioned above. The amazing thing is that the polls aren’t seeing any change. The next Newspoll will be fascinating if nothing has happened to the OV.

  18. [Last week, I said the OV was turning into a debacle. I was severely criticised. How many people would now say it isn’t a fiasco?

    It’s not a fiasco

  19. There is one principle Labor has to abide by now and that is they need to keep the OV AS away from CI. Labor cannot afford to be seen to be caving in. That’s a possible vote changer.
    The irony I think is that while Labor takes time to work this out there is little danger of public opinion turning against them. The OV AS are not here and any solution that sees the AS going to Indonesia or anywhere else as a first or only step, will do Labor very little harm electorally.

  20. Stop all the panic over the OV, Rudd’s got it under control, ABC 702 news just said cracks are starting to appear with 20 AS ready to go to the indonesian camps.

  21. [Psephos

    On a good news note, I saw that Zentai is going to be extradited to Hungary to face trial for war crimes. You and your ex-boss should be very pleased. Well done.]

    And in a case of unfortunate placement – Seven Perth announced this immediately after their story on Peter Abetz 🙁

  24. [Stop all the panic over the OV, Rudd’s got it under control, ABC 702 news just said cracks are starting to appear with 20 AS ready to go to the indonesian camps.]

    In due season, in due season.

  26. [Stop all the panic over the OV, Rudd’s got it under control, ABC 702 news just said cracks are starting to appear with 20 AS ready to go to the indonesian camps.]
    If that proves to be correct Vera (it’s hard to believe the MSM with so many twists and turns at the moment) and Rudd wins out by waiting then the Rudd government will be vindicated in the actions they took.

  29. Dario

    Yep, it’s still a fiasco. There’s still 58 on there and I’m betting some of them won’t be getting off in Indonesia for anything.

    I’m not surprised some got off given the highly preferential treatment they are being offered. If I was a genuine refugee I would have taken the offer.

    Let me know when they’re all off.

  31. [Thanks Frank, dunno what happened there!]

    Blame their IT people who linked to the wrong link, on the Just in page there are 2 entries, the second one works.

  32. What cool head vera? They read my post @1359, it was reported straight to Rudd, then onto the captain of the OV, and then to the ABC news. 😀

  33. [Let me know when they’re all off.]
    Now that their solidarity has been cracked I think the rest will follow fairly quickly. Could be wrong but I would love to be as certain of winning Lotto.

  34. Gary, yes looks like Rudd’s ‘tough’ (winning the standoff it looks like) but ‘fair’ (not sending the troops to drag them off) will pay off and he will be the winner.
    Malcolm and the malconents on the other hand can please themselves 🙂

  37. Dario

    If you were in SL and wanting to sail to Oz, you’d be thrilled to see that all you need to do is get rescued by an Aussie boat, irrespective of where the boat is, and then refuse to get off.

    You get a free ticket to Oz with a fast-tracked time to get in.

    How is that discouraging people smuggling?

  41. [If you were in SL and wanting to sail to Oz, you’d be thrilled to see that all you need to do is get rescued by an Aussie boat, irrespective of where the boat is, and then refuse to get off.

    You get a free ticket to Oz with a fast-tracked time to get in.

    How is that discouraging people smuggling?]

    Something tells me they aren’t going to Oz

  44. [If you were in SL and wanting to sail to Oz, you’d be thrilled to see that all you need to do is get rescued by an Aussie boat, irrespective of where the boat is, and then refuse to get off.]
    I suspect there won’t be any Aussie boats rescuing anyone outside of the Aussie rescue zone from now on. Why would you?

  45. [Something tells me they aren’t going to Oz]

    Evans told Kerry he expected the majority of them to end up in Oz.

    Finns

    I’m just using people’s arguments back at them.

  46. GB

    I thought exactly the same thing and then remembered the SIEVX. We can hardly turn off our radios and pretend we can’t hear any distress calls. That really would be worse than Howard.

    Basically, the whole situation sucks.

  47. [Evans told Kerry he expected the majority of them to end up in Oz]

    That surprises me. Still, as GB said, I don’t think we’ll be doing any resucing for the Indonesians any more.

  49. Generic Person was a pompous Tory gitt that no doubt wore his collar poking up. TTH is North Qld anti-interlectual ignorant redneck who’s vote in 1998 was probably for a certain fish&chip shop owner. They are two quite different demographics.

  50. [Ive just lost every avatar but dio’s

    but I suppose I did press show all shitstirrers]

    Hahahaha. Dio might often be wRONg, but I wouldn’t have gone that far 🙂

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