Following last week’s surprising and almost certainly rogue Newspoll result, The Australian sent its pollster out into the field again over the weekend for an eagerly anticipated follow-up survey. However, when the results were published yesterday, all that was offered was attitudinal results on asylum seekers – although breakdowns by party support made clear that voting intention had also been ascertained. This sent Gary Morgan on the offensive:
Newspoll should have conducted another poll as soon as possible when they saw the dramatic change in their results – and if different, released the data to correct the misconceptions caused by their “rogue” poll … A statistical analysis of the data reported on Australians’ attitudes to “boat people” issues – specifically the breakdown by “Political support” – suggests the ALP vote in that poll was very strong. The percentage supporting each political party clearly should have been released. Polls and their publishers should not seek to set the agenda by selectively releasing polling data. Polls and their publishers are powerful but with that power comes responsibility.
Queried by Andrew Crook of Crikey, The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell explained that “even Crikey” should be able to understand that a non-fortnightly set of voting intention figures would cause a disturbance in the force. Mitchell further invoked a Beatles-and-the-Stones style arrangement between Newspoll and Nielsen in which they have agreed not to step on each other’s releases. Yet just one month ago, on the same day that Nielsen produced its regular monthly poll, The Australian published a “special Newspoll survey” on the Liberal leadership in between its regular fortnightly polls, and was not in the least bit shy about informing us that the sample produced the same 58-42 split in favour of Labor as recorded the previous week. In fairness, it should be noted that Crikey “understands that on Sunday morning, Newspoll chief Martin O’Shannessy contacted his Nielsen counterpart John Stirton and agreed not to release the two-party preferred vote to The Australian”.
My own concern with all this is that I was hoping for a new poll result to hang my regular set of electoral updates off, and didn’t get one. Here they are:
• The saga surrounding the YouTube Downfall parody aimed at Mitchell MP Alex Hawke over his feud with former Right ally and state upper house MP David Clarke has lifted a rock on preselection manoeuvres for safe Liberal state seats. Hawke-Hitler is portrayed in the video castigating himself for having backed Hills Shire councillor Andrew Jefferies to depose incumbent Wayne Merton in Baulkham Hills. The Clarke forces have been hoping the seat might instead go to Damien Tudehope, who has a not inconsiderable public profile as spokesman for the NSW Family Association – and whose son Thomas has just resigned as Malcolm Turnbull’s media adviser after being linked to the aforesaid YouTube video. The infamous episode where 40 Clarke supporters showed up at a Young Liberal branch meeting at Hawke’s office, prompting Hawke’s staff to call the police, reportedly occurred as part of efforts to secure Baulkham Hills for Tudehope. In Castle Hill, Clarke faction operative Dominic Perrottet (whose brother Charles has just resigned as Clarke’s chief-of-staff after he too was linked to the YouTube video) has been plotting to depose incumbent Michael Richardson. On the other side of the pendulum, Hawke is apparently backing another ally, state Young Liberals president Scott Farlow, for the seat of Drummoyne (which Labor’s Angela D’Amore holds by a margin of 7.6 per cent), while Clarke man Kevin Conolly hopes to again contest Riverstone, where he ran against Labor’s John Aquilina in 2007.
• Stephanie Peatling of the Sydney Morning Herald reveals the identity of the abortive Right challenger to Philip Ruddock in Berowra: Richard Quinn, a Hunters Hill councillor. A Ruddock supporter specifically identifies Quinn’s backers as “the Taliban faction”, meaning the forces associated with David Clarke. Quinn has “now expressed interest in Bennelong”, which would put him up against former tennis player and unsuccessful Bradfield preselection aspirant John Alexander, plus another previously unheralded entrant in “businessman Mark Chan”.
• Lisa Carty of the Sydney Morning Herald explains Labor’s recent western Sydney preselection shenanigans in terms of a deal in which the Right will retain its hold on Fowler following Julia Irwin’s retirement at the next election, despite the numbers in local branches being finely poised between the two factions. The Right’s favoured candidate for Fowler is Ed Husic of the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union, who was defeated by Louise Markus when he ran in Greenway at the 2004 election. In return for not pursuing a claim in Fowler, the Left will be awarded Werriwa at the expense of Right incumbent Chris Hayes. However, state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite is quoted in the article saying there is “no deal to shift (Hayes) to Macarthur”. That hasn’t stopped an avalanche of reports about whether Werriwa will go to Reid MP Laurie Ferguson, as proposed by Julia Gillard and the soft Left, or Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union organiser Damien Ogden, the candidate of Anthony Albanese and the hard Left.
• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports claims Labor internal polling of 650 voters in Robertson shows Belinda Neal set to be dumped by a swing of “about 20 per cent”, although this has naturally been denied by state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite. The report also quotes Labor sources suggesting recent talk of a run for the premiership by her husband John Della Bosca has been raised for use as a “bargaining chip” to protect Neal’s position.
• The Queensland Liberal National Party has preselected Hajnal Ban, Logan councillor, Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007 and recipient of an eye-watering Russian surgical procedure to lengthen her legs, as its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. Unsuccessful candidates included Cameron Thompson, the former Liberal member for
Blair (who was presumably handicapped by an understanding that the seat was the domain of the Nationals), and Gold Coast councillor and former children’s television presenter Bob La Castra.
• Former Senator, one-time Democrats leader and blogosphere identity Andrew Bartlett will run for the Greens at the federal election in Brisbane, which Labor’s Arch Bevis holds with a diminished post-redistribution margin against the LNP of 3.8 per cent. Antony Green explains why he won’t win.
• Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports Labor preselection nominations for Canning, Cowan and Swan will close on December 1, and candidates will be chosen by mid-December.
• The Macquarie Street blog of Poll Bludger regular Oz informs us that NSW upper house MP Gordon Moyes, long estranged from the Christian Democratic Party from which he was elected, has announced he is joining Family First.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reports that Anna Bligh will respond to the state’s review on accountability by moving to impose a $1000 cap on political donations unless the federal government does likewise before July 2010, as well as imposing a ban on “success fees” to lobbyists.
[The Coalition wouldn’t have had this problem in the first place, as we weren’t getting flooded by boats after they introduced the Pacific Solution. It only happened because Rudd threw out the Welcome Mat, dropped TPV’s, Right of Return, Mandatory Detention, Pacific Solution and Detention accomodation costs.]
Er, no. The boats started up again under your messiah Johnny. Try again.
[Yeah, but as I think Dio mentioned, that’s just the lower house.
So even if the government agrees to opposition amendments in the Senate, they are still going to vote against the bill when it is returned to the house? That is just bizarre.
[Not so’s that anyone notices. Books are a luxury item, not a daily necessity. ]
I disagree. If you want an educated society books are a necessity, not a luxury.
[The government simply took the most expedient path. There are jobs to be lost in book printing in Bendigo, and thus votes to be lost in a marginal seat.]
Why didn’t they at least reduce the release window from 30 to 20 or 10 days? Or how about 15? I can never understand why I see a book on Amazon, but walk into an Australian retailer only to be told the book isn’t out here for another month.
[The Coalition wouldn’t have had this problem in the first place,]
What a load of utter crap. If you believe that you will believe anything. You got your arse handed to yourself in this thread on Possum’s blog:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/10/19/push-vs-pull-asylum-seeker-numbers-and-statistics/
It is sad that you STILL haven’t figured out what those FACTS actually mean.
[Please try again.]
You can have your own opinions but not your own facts.
[Er, no. The boats started up again under your messiah Johnny. Try again.]
It’s all clearly explained here:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/10/19/push-vs-pull-asylum-seeker-numbers-and-statistics/
SNIP: Abuse deleted – The Management.
Even I think your last sentence in 1300 is correct TomH.
[He doesn’t believe a word of it. He’s nothing but a liar who has been pretending he voted for Rudd last election.]
Exactly, and we’re to believe he voted Labor last time, even though he constantly professes his admiration for John Howard LMFAO
Is it just me or is Copenhagen going to be a flop? If it is going to be a flop, (with big Spin, no doubt), we are looking at 2 degrees definite, up to 4 degrees more likely than not. Instead of fussing around with a 5% ETS, wouldn’t it be better to start investing in coping with the consequences?
Building algae gruel farms, shifting our cities to higher ground, that sort of thing?
ShowsOn:
[Turnbull hasn’t proposed ANYTHING, he hasn’t come remotely close to stating what he would do in this situation if he was Prime Minister, most likely because he thinks Rudd is making the best of a bad situation]
I’m well aware of that. They have no policy. I am referring solely to offers of special treatment. They’ve been offered but the asylum seekers don’t deserve any.
Turnbull is pointing that out in lights, and by doing so he makes it harder for the government to make such offers.
Will our Green friends please explain this decision via WA Labor Backbencher Andrew addell re the proposed Stop & Search law ?
[Andrew Waddell
Hide
Andrew Waddell I cant believe the greens oppose a review of the Stop and Search Laws….principle is one thing, but at least force a review of the draconian laws.
55 minutes ago · Comment · Like / Unlike]
[Exactly, and we’re to believe he voted Labor last time, even though he constantly professes his admiration for John Howard LMFAO]
And is behaving in exactly the same way as a simlar poster with the Goat Avitar 🙂
This whole debacle has reinforced one thing: the supposed special relationship with Indonesia is a farce, just as it was in 2001 during the Tampa crisis. You can probably fault Rudd on putting too much trust in the Indonesian authorities to fulfill their side of the bargain!
It might be better for the government if they cut their losses, and take the lot of them to Christmas Island, but take an inordinately long time to process the Sri Lankans and make a big show of deporting those who don’t fulfill the refugee requirements.
Let me add that Chris Evans is a poor media performer, so is Brendan O’Connor!
The Coalition has two policies on the OV:
1. Give them bathers
2. The tapeworm solution. Put food on the beach and they will the ship like the Tape Worm of urban myth.
The Herald Sun is reporting that it looks like the Liberal Party will be voting down the ETS
If Copehagen is a flop, will the Opposition be right in rejecting a 5% ETS?
[You can probably fault Rudd on putting too much trust in the Indonesian authorities to fulfill their side of the bargain!]
I’m not so sure about that. Indonesia hasn’t really done much wrong so far. They’ve allowed the boat to stay in port, and have said they won’t be forcing the people off the boat, which is fair enough. Ok, there have been some unhelpful utterings from lower officials, but most of it is BS and is more the fault of our media looking for a headline from nobodies than anything else.
Emerson badly needs some good media training. He was wooden, hapless, repetitive, uninspiring and unready for the obvious questions. He is not what Labor needs cf OVs.
Why does Red Kerry always say “Thanks for talking to us” whenever he finishes talking to someone like Chris Evans?
Chris Evans just did his talking points like a broken record and didn’t actually answer any questions.
Red Kerry should just sum up the entire interview by saying “Thanks for talking”
OTOH, he was quite useful to Red Kerry and to the Opposition…
[The Herald Sun is reporting that it looks like the Liberal Party will be voting down the ETS]
But isn’t Macfarlane still negotiating with Penny Wong?
So Turnball has been rolled by Minchin and the sceptics?
SNIP: Abuse deleted – The Management.
[Truthiness, are you going to answer any of the questions put to you, or just dodge like the liar you are?]
Are we sure he and Generic Person aren’t the same person?
Oh, yes sir, indeedee, yes, the Indonesians have done a big wrong thing.
By refusing the OV human cargo the Indonesians are sending a clear message to third parties: if you rescue refugees in Indonesian waters you had better plan on taking them home. The implication is that a fair few more people are going to be drowing as a result.
Evan! Yes they are still negotiating and in honewsty the story was a bit all over the place but it suggested that the bill would enter the HoR before the negotiations are finished then move tot he Senate, the story then went on to talk about the Greens being excluded because they would not lower their target.
honewsty = honesty
GP was pithier, I believe.
a more inclined to the egregious…
[Are we sure he and Generic Person aren’t the same person?]
No. But they’re certainly both very similar.
As always after a hot day in Canberra, a thunderstorm is rumbling in off the hills and it’s starting to rain.
[If Copehagen is a flop, will the Opposition be right in rejecting a 5% ETS?]
No, Boerwar. Today I was stunned by a person who said she was a CC sceptic. Said it is just the natural order of things. I asked if she’d read anything the IPCC or CSIRO had to say. She said ‘why would I need to. I’ve lived long enough (in her 50s) to know things change naturally. This woman is tertiary educated.
The Sri Lankans obviously sabotaged the boat, thinking that they’d get rescued in Australian waters. But they miscalculated and ended up instead in the Indonesian zone.
I think that’s how this whole mess started!
BH! She is partly right! anyone old enough would know things change naturally.
The issue is how do we ensure that our impact is not adding to the natural order.
yep, but BH, why would we invest a whole lot of funding in something that is not going to make a global difference when we should be funding stuff that will make a difference to our ability to survive the consequences?
I don’t use having a tertiary education as a test for whether someone has any common sense, judgement, or even intelligence.
Evan@1322:
[Are we sure he and Generic Person aren’t the same person?]
GP is monosyllabic. The troll just rabbits on and on.
Yep, it was like the OO the other day. They had an ageing codger who proved that global sea levels hadn’t changed because he had been swimming for x decades and had not noticed a thing. One codger = IPCC = no OO credibility.
I just wished Red Kerry would have asked one additional question that was clearly missing from the interview with Chris Evans.
We had lots of questions about “negotiations” and “deals” but the big topic was avoided.
He should have asked, why can’t we just force them off the boat?
But that is stupid!
[It might be better for the government if they cut their losses, and take the lot of them to Christmas Island.]
That would maximise the government’s losses. It would give the smugglers what they want, let the Indonesians off the hook, and prove the Liberals right. If they really can’t be disembarked in Indonesia, they’ll have to go back to Sri Lanka, or maybe India if they’ll take them.
Because the Indonesians have said they don’t want that to happen and this is an Indonesian Port
[I don’t use having a tertiary education as a test for whether someone has any common sense, judgement, or even intelligence.]
Neither do I, Boerwar, but I would have expected that would have given her the nous to want to be informed by all sides of the debate.
Isn’t investing in renewables a start and making the mob 5% cleaner is better than nothing.
Huge thunderstorm here and we don’t need more rain. Will have to go. Night all.
Plus, GP did not wear the old heart (if any) on the sleeve.
Jeez, no one could accuse Chris Evans of using his charm to manipulate people, could they? That interview with Kerry O’Brien was woeful. When people like me and other bleeding heart leftie latte and chardonnay sipping hippie types some of whom inhabit Pollbludgers, want to shake him, no wonder Kevin wants to keep them on a short leash. Here was I thinking he was quite O.K. about letting them get on with it.
I think it is too late for starts. We need to be thinking middles and finishes. If Copenhagen is about starts and not finishes, we are stuffed and might as well learn to deal with it.
HSO
Greetings. And snap.
[He should have asked, why can’t we just force them off the boat?]
It doesn’t matter how patiently or how often you explain to TTH the situation regarding forcible removal, he soon loses patience and simply wants to kick them off the boat without regard for where they can be kicked off to, and then the cycle of patient explanation repeats. It needs to be drilled into TTH’s brain once and for all that Indonesia won’t accept them if they are forced off the boat.
Triton
Why can’t they force them off the boat?
Because no one has thought to give them bathers?
*zedtime*
G’day Boerwar. Those pine bark beetles should be taking options on any DNA manipulation solutions that would optimise food options, I reckon. Fine bit of adaptation that would be.
BTW, how did Mrs Boerwar take the mankini?
Psephos
Fortunately Smith agrees with me and says that SL is NOT an option, for reasons that I gave earlier.
[But Mr Smith says that is not an option.
“We are certainly not proposing to take up the suggestion of the Leader of the National Party in the Senate, that they be returned to Sri Lanka,” he said.
“In advance of a proper assessment of their claims, that in my view would be in breach of our international obligations and in breach of the refugee convention.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/08/2736606.htm?section=australia
[That would maximise the government’s losses. It would give the smugglers what they want, let the Indonesians off the hook, and prove the Liberals right]
Agreed