Following last week’s surprising and almost certainly rogue Newspoll result, The Australian sent its pollster out into the field again over the weekend for an eagerly anticipated follow-up survey. However, when the results were published yesterday, all that was offered was attitudinal results on asylum seekers – although breakdowns by party support made clear that voting intention had also been ascertained. This sent Gary Morgan on the offensive:
Newspoll should have conducted another poll as soon as possible when they saw the dramatic change in their results – and if different, released the data to correct the misconceptions caused by their “rogue” poll … A statistical analysis of the data reported on Australians’ attitudes to “boat people” issues – specifically the breakdown by “Political support” – suggests the ALP vote in that poll was very strong. The percentage supporting each political party clearly should have been released. Polls and their publishers should not seek to set the agenda by selectively releasing polling data. Polls and their publishers are powerful but with that power comes responsibility.
Queried by Andrew Crook of Crikey, The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell explained that “even Crikey” should be able to understand that a non-fortnightly set of voting intention figures would cause a disturbance in the force. Mitchell further invoked a Beatles-and-the-Stones style arrangement between Newspoll and Nielsen in which they have agreed not to step on each other’s releases. Yet just one month ago, on the same day that Nielsen produced its regular monthly poll, The Australian published a “special Newspoll survey” on the Liberal leadership in between its regular fortnightly polls, and was not in the least bit shy about informing us that the sample produced the same 58-42 split in favour of Labor as recorded the previous week. In fairness, it should be noted that Crikey “understands that on Sunday morning, Newspoll chief Martin O’Shannessy contacted his Nielsen counterpart John Stirton and agreed not to release the two-party preferred vote to The Australian”.
My own concern with all this is that I was hoping for a new poll result to hang my regular set of electoral updates off, and didn’t get one. Here they are:
• The saga surrounding the YouTube Downfall parody aimed at Mitchell MP Alex Hawke over his feud with former Right ally and state upper house MP David Clarke has lifted a rock on preselection manoeuvres for safe Liberal state seats. Hawke-Hitler is portrayed in the video castigating himself for having backed Hills Shire councillor Andrew Jefferies to depose incumbent Wayne Merton in Baulkham Hills. The Clarke forces have been hoping the seat might instead go to Damien Tudehope, who has a not inconsiderable public profile as spokesman for the NSW Family Association – and whose son Thomas has just resigned as Malcolm Turnbull’s media adviser after being linked to the aforesaid YouTube video. The infamous episode where 40 Clarke supporters showed up at a Young Liberal branch meeting at Hawke’s office, prompting Hawke’s staff to call the police, reportedly occurred as part of efforts to secure Baulkham Hills for Tudehope. In Castle Hill, Clarke faction operative Dominic Perrottet (whose brother Charles has just resigned as Clarke’s chief-of-staff after he too was linked to the YouTube video) has been plotting to depose incumbent Michael Richardson. On the other side of the pendulum, Hawke is apparently backing another ally, state Young Liberals president Scott Farlow, for the seat of Drummoyne (which Labor’s Angela D’Amore holds by a margin of 7.6 per cent), while Clarke man Kevin Conolly hopes to again contest Riverstone, where he ran against Labor’s John Aquilina in 2007.
• Stephanie Peatling of the Sydney Morning Herald reveals the identity of the abortive Right challenger to Philip Ruddock in Berowra: Richard Quinn, a Hunters Hill councillor. A Ruddock supporter specifically identifies Quinn’s backers as “the Taliban faction”, meaning the forces associated with David Clarke. Quinn has “now expressed interest in Bennelong”, which would put him up against former tennis player and unsuccessful Bradfield preselection aspirant John Alexander, plus another previously unheralded entrant in “businessman Mark Chan”.
• Lisa Carty of the Sydney Morning Herald explains Labor’s recent western Sydney preselection shenanigans in terms of a deal in which the Right will retain its hold on Fowler following Julia Irwin’s retirement at the next election, despite the numbers in local branches being finely poised between the two factions. The Right’s favoured candidate for Fowler is Ed Husic of the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union, who was defeated by Louise Markus when he ran in Greenway at the 2004 election. In return for not pursuing a claim in Fowler, the Left will be awarded Werriwa at the expense of Right incumbent Chris Hayes. However, state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite is quoted in the article saying there is “no deal to shift (Hayes) to Macarthur”. That hasn’t stopped an avalanche of reports about whether Werriwa will go to Reid MP Laurie Ferguson, as proposed by Julia Gillard and the soft Left, or Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union organiser Damien Ogden, the candidate of Anthony Albanese and the hard Left.
• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports claims Labor internal polling of 650 voters in Robertson shows Belinda Neal set to be dumped by a swing of “about 20 per cent”, although this has naturally been denied by state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite. The report also quotes Labor sources suggesting recent talk of a run for the premiership by her husband John Della Bosca has been raised for use as a “bargaining chip” to protect Neal’s position.
• The Queensland Liberal National Party has preselected Hajnal Ban, Logan councillor, Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007 and recipient of an eye-watering Russian surgical procedure to lengthen her legs, as its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. Unsuccessful candidates included Cameron Thompson, the former Liberal member for
Blair (who was presumably handicapped by an understanding that the seat was the domain of the Nationals), and Gold Coast councillor and former children’s television presenter Bob La Castra.
• Former Senator, one-time Democrats leader and blogosphere identity Andrew Bartlett will run for the Greens at the federal election in Brisbane, which Labor’s Arch Bevis holds with a diminished post-redistribution margin against the LNP of 3.8 per cent. Antony Green explains why he won’t win.
• Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports Labor preselection nominations for Canning, Cowan and Swan will close on December 1, and candidates will be chosen by mid-December.
• The Macquarie Street blog of Poll Bludger regular Oz informs us that NSW upper house MP Gordon Moyes, long estranged from the Christian Democratic Party from which he was elected, has announced he is joining Family First.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reports that Anna Bligh will respond to the state’s review on accountability by moving to impose a $1000 cap on political donations unless the federal government does likewise before July 2010, as well as imposing a ban on “success fees” to lobbyists.
[Robot, there is no test]
Had a great chuckle when I walked past the newsagent today and banner for The Oz read:
“BOOKS: LABOR FAILS THE TEST”
Xanthippe jstu got one of the apple e book readers (not a Kindle). The screen is very good – not backlit and far easier on the eyes. Not cheap, but there are already an amazing number of historical books you can download from the Guttenberg Project for free.
That being said, I still love having a book to keep too.
GG
I’m pretty sure the OO is just referring to the House vote not the Senate vote, as the House vote is on the unamended bill.
[THE Coalition is expected to present a united front and vote down emissions trading legislation when it is brought before Parliament next week. ]
Actually, Finns, I read earlier in the day that the AS mob had written on the back of the formal letter from the Government. According to that report, blessed if I can recall who/what agency was reporting, as it was just before a marathon interviewing session at work, and an afternoon of who woulda thunk it, madness, the original letter to the AS people had been translated into Tamil and their response was in a somewhat mangled English conveying they thought they were being conned and saying they wouldn’t have a bar of the offer.
Psephos, what I’ve been suspicious about is that there is a significant Sri Lankan community already here in Australia, particularly in Melbourne. I’ve been wondering about whether some of them might have been coaching people trying to escape Sri Lanka and Indonesia.
BH, I hope the anaesthesist is giving you a cut rate, boom tish.
Hmm, on the other hand, if the OV asylum seekers are that paranoid, who’s to know? I recall the story of a refugee from earlier times who became acutely distressed – location middle coastal Queensland _ well meaning health person arranges for this person to be transferred to hospital in Brisbane – result? – refugee goes berserk – why? – turns out hospitals are where he was tortured.
My brain hurts.
I’m going to go watch Clarke and Dawe.
Probably charges me more, HSO, for doing him out of a fee for the valium or whatever it is they give you.
Watched a bit of SBS News tonight and OV wasn’t their lead item – had terrific piece about the dog. Cheering to see a good news story from there.
HSO@1254:
[I’ve been wondering about whether some of them might have been coaching people trying to escape Sri Lanka and Indonesia.]
I hadn’t thought of that, but it would be logical, and an entirely human thing to do.
Oz is a good place to live, why wouldn’t you want your friends and relatives to come here? Can’t blame them for doing that.
They are certainly behaving as though they understand how our legal system works.
What they don’t seem to understand is that Australians don’t like people coming the raw prawn.
[I’ve been wondering about whether some of them might have been coaching people trying to escape Sri Lanka and Indonesia.]
Harry, in the classical Darwinian scenario. The OV is now in its 4th week and it has been sitting there like a primeval cesspool. A number of organic agents, like middlemen, must have sprung up already to do whatever the stakeholders like if the price is right.
The English version of Rudd’s bribe document to the boatpeople on the OV have been leaked by someone in the Immigration department.
Seems people in the Department are getting frustrated with this government being such lightweights.
BH
Speaking of that dog…
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/slideshow/ALeqM5ij_Q-yC2RXnuSC_H0G8ffXsQggYQD9BTSFE80?index=1&ned=au
Well, I guess we’ll have to have a little more patience (sniggle), to see how it all turns out. BTW, TTH, are you suggesting there’s a Godwin Grech clone in Immigration? That should turn out well.
And indeedy, Finns.
Are the AS on the OV hanging out for a trip to Xmas Island? Why did they turn down the offer?
“TTH, are you suggesting there’s a Godwin Grech clone in Immigration?”
I’m sure those that worked during the Howard years suddenly see the flood of illegals due to Labor slackening off the laws, are disgusted as they have to handle Illegals with kid gloves.
I’m angry as hell and I don’t even work in the Immigration department, I can just imagine how frustrated they are.
Thanks Vera – you can see Kev is a dog lover by the way he is holding it. My OH has a habit of judging people by the way they react to his constant companion – yeah, the dawg. The funny thing is that he’s usually right. He likes Kev.
Gawd, Diog, who would know why they turned down the offer. As I intimated earlier it could be they’re being coached, perhaps from contacts here in Australia. It could be they’re extremely paranoid and irrational, or the group is dominated by such people, due to previous trauma.
Could be a mix of these factors.
[Why did they turn down the offer?]
Some possibilities:
* They were told by the Indonesians and the smugglers that unpleasant things will happen to them if they go ashore once the Australian media has gone home.
* They were advised to do so by “refugee advocates” and immigration lawyers, for various self-interested reasons.
* They were told by the Liberals and/or News Ltd (to the extent that there’s a difference) that if they hold out Rudd will eventually give in.
TTH
People don’t work in the Dept. of Immigration they end up there.
For a professional public servant immigration is the pits. It can be career ending. 🙁
TTH, you’re so certain of what the problem and solution is, I suggest you consider a career change and apply to the Department, or alternatively stand for parliament so you can set everyone straight.
*gawn*
Chris Evans is getting killed by Red Kerry. He’s waffling badly and looks like he’s just repeating mantras.
Was the offer conditional ie. disembark before x and you will be offered resettlement after processing??
The OO today went in hard against the Govt. over the book decision.
It struck me that Harper Collins is owned by Murdoch. Does it still publish in Oz and, if so, why would the OO be bagging the Govt. over a benefit its boss will get from the decision.
Psephos and HSO
But surely they’d be better off taking that offer than ending up behind barbed wire on Xmas Island for an uncertain time.
If they’re getting advice not to take the offer, the advice sucks and you have to wonder who’s giving it to them.
Even I’m pissed off with the sweetheart deal they’re getting and I’m about as far left as anyone here on refugees.
[The OO today went in hard against the Govt. over the book decision.
It struck me that Harper Collins is owned by Murdoch. Does it still publish in Oz and, if so, why would the OO be bagging the Govt. over a benefit its boss will get from the decision.]
Harper Collins has the rights to distribute ABC Books – I wonder thaat is why they have such a cosy relationship ?
Interesting the no one in the MSM is mentioning that we are seeing and hearing from the AS because the govt has allowed access, unlike the Tampa
[The OO today went in hard against the Govt. over the book decision.]
I’m a free-trader and I think it was a bad decision, but this issue is very esoteric and has no political legs. No-one is interested in complaints from booksellers.
Diogenes, I agree with you. I’m pretty far left on refugees too and its getting really annoying. I wonder how the rednecks feel?? I would have given them a deadline then ruled that they can never resettle in Oz. Wow, Im sounding like Howard, bit of a worry
[No-one is interested in complaints from booksellers.]
But plenty of people buy books though and they’re more expensive because of the protection tariff.
BH, the OO would have gone in just in hard had the book decision gone the other way. Its doesnt matter, as long as its Rudd-bashing
[I’m a free-trader and I think it was a bad decision, but this issue is very esoteric and has no political legs. No-one is interested in complaints from booksellers.]
I celebrated the decision by spending $200 on books at Amazon.com.
Surely there was a middle ground solution? They should’ve reduced the 30 day window to 10 days. If a local publisher didn’t have their version out within 10 days, then the retailers should be allowed to import.
[But plenty of people buy books though and they’re more expensive because of the protection tariff.]
So they should buy books via the internet instead.
Has this been mentioned?
[The coalition is expected to present a united front and vote down emissions trading legislation when it is brought before parliament next week. ]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/coalition-ready-to-vote-down-ets-legislation-next-week/story-e6frf7jo-1225797080452
“Some possibilities:”
Or the most likely reason.
They hold disdain for rules, laws and regulations, are arrogant spoilt con-jobs(we know alex was for a fact, what about the rest?) who want the express lane to the land of milk and honey like every other economic migrant that comes here, and will do anything, and I mean ANYTHING to make sure they get their way.
[Chris Evans is getting killed by Red Kerry. He’s waffling badly and looks like he’s just repeating mantras.]
Diog, under the circumstances, i thought Evans did quite well.
[Chris Evans is getting killed by Red Kerry.]
Yes, he was most unconvincing regarding special treatment. It was pretty obvious that it’s been offered, but after the asylum seekers’ behaviour towards their rescuers they don’t deserve any special offers or to be taken to Christmas Island. This is one occasion where I welcome Turnbull turning up the heat on the government because the more he does it the harder it is for the government to cave in. That’s what they would probably do if they could get away with it.
[and will do anything, and I mean ANYTHING to make sure they get their way.]
And yet it must hurt you so very much that the Coalition wouldn’t be doing anything differently than what the government has done.
[This is one occasion where I welcome Turnbull turning up the heat on the government because the more he does it the harder it is for the government to cave in.]
What on Earth does “turn up the heat” mean in this context? Turnbull hasn’t proposed ANYTHING, he hasn’t come remotely close to stating what he would do in this situation if he was Prime Minister, most likely because he thinks Rudd is making the best of a bad situation.
[And yet it must hurt you so very much that the Coalition wouldn’t be doing anything differently than what the government has done.]
Oh come on. Jackboot Johnny would have personally gone up there with his 12 gauge and given them what for!
SO@1282:
[Has this been mentioned?]
Yeah, but as I think Dio mentioned, that’s just the lower house.
We’ll have to wait to see what happens in the senate.
The opposition, and MT, will be living in interesting times. They can vote it down in the LH, it will still pass, but it’s a DD trigger if they vote it down in the senate.
Emerson was very weak. Red Kerry had him for dinner.
[But plenty of people buy books though and they’re more expensive because of the protection tariff.]
Not so’s that anyone notices. Books are a luxury item, not a daily necessity. People who buy lots of books (like me) either don’t mind the price or buy them on Amazon.
The government simply took the most expedient path. There are jobs to be lost in book printing in Bendigo, and thus votes to be lost in a marginal seat.
“And yet it must hurt you so very much that the Coalition wouldn’t be doing anything differently than what the government has done.”
The Coalition wouldn’t have had this problem in the first place, as we weren’t getting flooded by boats after they introduced the Pacific Solution. It only happened because Rudd threw out the Welcome Mat, dropped TPV’s, Right of Return, Mandatory Detention, Pacific Solution and Detention accomodation costs.
Please try again.
Turning up the heat as in AGW… obvious, really.
Looking at the second and third paragraphs here, it seems to fit into my two previous posts which show just how much Murdoch depends on “favourable’ decisions by Government to fatten up the Murdoch treasury!
This has a direct relationship to the News ltd attitude and relationship to the Rudd Labor government!
In a nutshell, it’s all to do with the “money”!
[HarperCollins is a publishing company owned by News Corporation. It is the combination of the publishers William Collins, Sons and Co Ltd, a British company, and Harper & Row, an American company. The worldwide CEO of HarperCollins is Brian Murray.[1] The company publishes under many different imprints, and publishes The Collins English Dictionary.]
[HarperCollins announced HarperStudio in 2008 as a “new, experimental unit… that will eliminate the traditional profit distributions to authors. The long-established author advances and bookseller returns has not proved to be very profitable to either the author or the publisher.The approach HarperStudio is now taking is to offer little or no advance, but instead to split the profit 50% (rather than the industry standard 15%), with the author”. The division is headed by Robert S. Miller, previously the founding publisher of Hyperion, the adult books division of the Walt Disney Company.[5][6]
Web Approach
In order to both boost book sales and reach the online market, HarperCollins offers a browsing feature on its website, whereby customers can read selected extracts from books before purchasing. [7][8] There are some concerns among publishers with this approach because they feel that the online books could be exploited in a “Napster-type” way.[9] In addition, excerpts of books are also available to mobile phone users.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harper_Collins
Thanks Frank – I’d forgotten that. I didn’t like it being sold – surely it was a nice little money earner for the ABC.
I agree – Chris Evans was difficult to watch tonight. Time to say ‘we gave them a good deal which they’ve rejected. They can now go to the back of the queue”.
Guaranteed resettlement in Australia? You cant say that isn’t special treatment. Is it really an appropriate reward for their behaviour?
Just to be clear though Dio, whilst I’m not thrilled at the government about this issue, it is very much a low order issue, no where near a vote changer, as the polls (rogue excepted) has shown
Shows On, re: the Herald article.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Opposition can conduct a debate in the House of Representatives on the original Bill, necessarily taking an oppositional line, and at the same time purport to be negotiating in good faith on their amendments. How far they can go in deriding the legislation must surely be constrained by their stated aim of reaching agreement.
Agree BH, the deal should be taken off the table if rejected.
1283 – TheTruthHurts
Your posts are becoming more hysterical as the days go on. I’m frustrated too by the situation but you need to get a grip on yourself – or maybe you need to loosen your grip or take your hand off it altogether.