Nielsen: 56-44

The keenly awaited monthly Nielsen poll of 1400 respondents has Labor’s two-party lead down just slightly to 56-44 from 57-43 a month ago. Likewise, Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 45 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 68 per cent and his disapproval is up five to 28 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up two points to 37 per cent, and his disapproval is steady on 53 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 69-23 to 68-22. Michelle Grattan provides further details on responses to asylum seeker policies:

As the effort to persuade the 78 Sri Lankans on the Oceanic Viking to disembark in Indonesia continues, 47 per cent of Australians disapprove of how the Prime Minister is handling the asylum-seeker issue; 45 per cent approve … Nearly two-thirds of Coalition voters disapproved, compared with one-third of Labor voters and just over half the Greens supporters … just 13 per cent thought the Government’s asylum-seeker policy was too harsh; 37 per cent said it was about right. Only 6 per cent of Coalition voters and 14 per cent of ALP voters said the policies were too hard. Labor voters were more than twice as likely to rate the policies too soft as too harsh. Nearly four in 10 Greens voters said they were too harsh.

UPDATE: The Australian offers results from that follow-up Newspoll we’ve been hearing about, but at this stage at least there are no figures on voting intention. It instead focuses on attitudes to asylum seeker policy, with results that largely echo those of last week’s Essential Research survey: 53 per cent disapprove of the government’s handling of the issue against 31 per cent approve, but only 22 per cent believe the Coalition would do a better job against 21 per cent for Labor. Forty-six per cent believe the government’s response has been too soft against 16 per cent too hard.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research: 59-41, i.e. unchanged on the last few weeks. However, Rudd’s approval ratings have taken a hit. Further questions on interest rates and yet another one on whether the government’s asylum seeker policies are tough, weak or just right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

895 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44”

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  1. News will probably justify not publishing the results on the grounds that they don’t want their regular polling to be out of synch. The other strategy may be to wait until next week when there may be a drop in Rudd’s popularity that they can sell as a spring back within MOE or some such tosh.

    Either way, they are trashing the Newspoll reputation.

  2. [Notice I didn’t respond to that poster who had the gall to post a link that I had posted on that very issue last night! Cheeky, or what!]

    As expected I guess 🙂

  3. [There seems to be some curious technical error in that Samantha Maiden sentence – nothing shows up at all when I look at it on my browser (MSIE).]

    The “inverted commas” come up as little squares with two little o’s in the top and either a little 93 or 94 in the bottom!

  4. [Of course, it’s possible that Newspoll deliberately didn’t ask for voting intentions so they couldn’t be accused of not releasing them, should they indicate that 52/48 was a rogue poll.]

    No, its not possible. Their figures released on Monday had party breakdowns on the AS questions. The only way they could have that data is if they asked the respondents their voting intention.

  5. [News will probably justify not publishing the results on the grounds that they don’t want their regular polling to be out of synch]

    Except as Crikey has pointed out, they’ve never done that in the last 3 years

  6. [No, its not possible. Their figures released on Monday had party breakdowns on the AS questions.]

    Okay. I don’t actually read The Australian.

  7. [News will probably justify not publishing the results on the grounds that they don’t want their regular polling to be out of synch.]

    Actually, according to the Crikey article, it was because O’Shannessy of Newspoll rang up Stirton of Nielsen and offered to withhold the figures, on a “non-compete” basis i.e. they have an agreement that two polling organizations won’t publish on the same day. Niuelsens come out Monday.

    Which of course means Newspoll should have published today, Tuesday.

    Sick and tired of hearing excuses from News Ltd, and some of their apologists here, as to why things either happen or don’t happen. There’s always some smick-sounding explanation: “we don’t compete in polling”, “that’s the culture”, “an honest mistake”, “my source is usually ultra-reliable” etc. etc.

    News Ltd. are run by one of the nastiest, meanest, most unethical megalomaniacs you could possibly contemplate. He personally picks his editors to be of like mind. He invented Fox News. I put nothing past him.

    Murdoch wants us to believe he’s a rational businessman (another excuse often trotted out when he goes feral), but he’s actually an alien from outer space, disguised as a human being. You can tell this by the fact that he can’t bend the little finger on his left hand, always a dead giveaway.

  8. [The Australian’s editor in chief, Chris Mitchell told Crikey that he had decided not to publish on the question of voting intention because he guessed that Nielsen would be polling for the SMH and the Age at the same time.

    “John Stirton from Nielsen will confirm Martin [O’Shannessy] never intended to run a full poll last weekend. Even Crikey should be able to understand the concept of ”fortnightly’,” Mitchell said.

    He said the full Newspoll has been published fortnightly for 25 years but that he had the “flexibility” to throw in extra questions, presumably related to voting intention, on the back of other Newspoll polling on the alternate weekends.]

    If I am reading this right, Mitchell is “trying” to say that the AS results released on Monday were “extra questions on the back of the previous Newspoll and were also a completely separate poll on the next weekend.

    As Glen would say, “bullbutter”! It can’t be both and Monday’s figures cannot be collected without first identifying “voting intention”!

    They have caught Howards disease!

  9. [ News Ltd. are run by one of the nastiest, meanest, most unethical megalomaniacs you could possibly contemplate. He personally picks his editors to be of like mind. He invented Fox News. I put nothing past him. ]

    You’re right. All we need to do is just live a bit longer than him and it is good odds we will see the empire broken up or even better falter under his replacement.

    Either way limited news is on borrowed time as are its flunkies.

  10. GG at 826

    Now that is indeed a nice little question for Mr Samuel at the ACCC

    [Crikey understands that on Sunday morning, Newspoll chief Martin O’Shannessy contacted his Nielsen counterpart John Stirton and agreed not to release the two-party preferred vote to The Australian. Fairfax and News have a history of avoiding polling on the same day so as not to cannibalise each other’s results.]

  11. [As Glen would say, “bullbutter”! It can’t be both and Monday’s figures cannot be collected without first identifying “voting intention”!]

    Yeah, I reckon he’s lying his ass off with that one

  12. [He personally picks his editors to be of like mind. He invented Fox News. I put nothing past him.]

    I doubt that he puts personal views ahead of the business, though, or at least not enough to hurt the business. Think what you like about Fox News – and who doesn’t – but it’s very successful. The Australian has its audience and it caters to it.

  13. [“John Stirton from Nielsen will confirm Martin O’Shannessy never intended to run a full poll last weekend. Even Crikey should be able to understand the concept of ”fortnightly’,” Mitchell said.]

    First, congratulations to Mr Mitchell on the subtle dig at Crikey. Second, is he arguing that polling of voting accident happened ‘unintentionally’?

  14. Greensborough Growler,

    It’s got me beat how they can blatantly “lie” like this and not think that people won’t see right through it!

    Mitchell is taking us to be complete imbeciles!

  15. [Yeah, I reckon he’s lying his ass off with that one]

    Almost everything about this polling issue has been a lie. Why anyone bothers to defend them – citing ethical grounds – escapes me.

  16. In fact, a quick look at the last few months even shows that they released 3 voting intention polls in 3 weeks! October 6th, 12th, and 20th!!! Lying scumbag.

  17. [Now that is indeed a nice little question for Mr Samuel at the ACCC]

    Yep – he should get on with it and hear, hear to BB’ summary of Murdoch.

    If that newspoll had been bad for Labor it would have been published this morning. They’ve published other results on a Tuesday before now. No matter what Mitchell says he would not have let a bad poll for Labor get away from him.

    The Libs don’t look particularly happy so I can’t see that the result was in their favour. And why did Milne feel the need to declare Newspoll the only one tht counts. It is all very fishy.

  18. It’s got nothing to do with Trade Practices.

    The Trade Practices Act was designed to do two things:

    1. Protect consumers

    2. Maintain competition in a market.

    How one pollster deciding not to publish results does either of those two things is beyond me. (whether or not it’s not to interfere with another pollsters results)

  19. I can’t be the only one wondering how Mr Turnbull has made the leap to the proposition that “The government has outsourced immigration to people smugglers”. It makes absolutely no sense. Hasn’t he learned not to overplay his hand yet?

  20. Thinking some more on the ACCC/collusion angle.

    Of course I am not a lawyer, so am only speculating, not making any allegation, but just reading a bit more on in the Crikey article…

    [The Australian’s editor in chief, Chris Mitchell told Crikey that he had decided not to publish on the question of voting intention because he guessed that Nielsen would be polling for the SMH and the Age at the same time.]

    “guessed”???!!! Now that sounds real lame. One might think when one member of a cartel just happens to “guess” that a competitor was going to lift prices on the same day

    Indeed, was there not a post here somewhere that Neilsen was a week early? So guessed real very luckily indeed?

    As I say, I am not a lawyer, but could this be collusion to reduce competition to induce consumers to buy both FXJ and NCP newspapers???

    Mr Samuel?

  21. Aristotle at 875

    Just saw your post…the [alleged] damage to consumers is to attempt to induce them to buy both newspapers, due to collusion to reduce competition on a matter of great consumer interest

  22. How would it reduce competition? Isn’t it actually pro-competitive because it has the aim of ensuring that multiple polling companies are able to stay in the market?

    In any case, how are the results of polling (research) a consumer good?

  23. From the AAP

    [Colourful former Liberal MP Warren Entsch is making a political comeback, nominating for preselection in his old seat.

    After retiring at the 2007 federal election Mr Entsch has put forward his name ahead of an LNP preselection ballot for the seat of Leichhardt on Saturday.]

  24. Aristotle,

    You’re forgetting one thing though! The political section of most of these polls are asked in connection with the “commercial” section of the survey.

    If one part can be manipulated to suit a particular intent and in collusion with another pollster, then there is nothing to prevent them from colluding and manipulating data with the commercial content.

    Or for that matter, on strictly commercial polling.

    The element of doubt is there and rightly, it should be looked at to ensure that correct propriety is being observed to protect the interests of the customer of these services.

  25. [No wonder Fairfax hasn’t made more of it also!

    They are protecting their man, Stirton and his cosy deal with O’Shannessy!]

    Except that’s all BS as well. Newspoll and ACN have both published at the same time 3 times this year! Oct 12th, June 29th and May 18th. Its just one lie after another really.

  26. [The element of doubt is there and rightly, it should be looked at to ensure that correct propriety is being observed to protect the interests of the customer of these services.]

    But aren’t their clients News Ltd and Fairfax? Their ‘customers’ are not the buyers of the newspapers.

  27. [Isn’t it actually pro-competitive because it has the aim of ensuring that multiple polling companies are able to stay in the market?]

    Huh? That’s exactly what price fixing aims to do, and that sure as hell aint legal

  28. [ADELAIDE is experiencing its hottest day in nine months, with the mercury reaching 38.8C at 2.20pm – 16C above the average temperature on this date.]

    Now Liberal MPs fight back against Minchin’s insanity:
    [One Liberal frontbencher told The Australian that Senator Minchin came across as a “complete fruit loop”.

    “Border control is going along a treat and they come out behaving like total f…wits. They don’t know how crazy they look, because crazy people never do,” the Liberal said.

    “Ironically they have made it easier for people who want to pass this legislation because we cannot be seen to give in to these people.]
    [“I have no doubt we will support amendments, the Labor Party will accept some amendments and the emissions trading legislation will get through.”

    Liberal MP Mal Washer told The Australian Online today that the Liberal Senate leader “wouldn’t have a clue”.

    “First of all, Nick would not have the remotest idea what a majority of the partyroom thinks,” Dr Washer said.

    “You get a lot of emotion generated by a few people. He should be a bit more circumspect.

    “I don’t dislike Nick. But to go public on it while we’re still trying to negotiate is to say the least bloody unhelpful. Frankly, he wouldn’t have a clue. He’s out of touch. And we’re about to find out anyway.”]

  29. [Except that’s all BS as well. Newspoll and ACN have both published at the same time 3 times this year! Oct 12th, June 29th and May 18th. Its just one lie after another really.]

    Dario, I’d like to see this pushed a bit further and harder to see just how deep a hole they make in trying to dig themselves out of it.

    It can only really come from the blogosphere as the commercial media is almost totally covered by News and Fairfax. I can’t really see the ABC in its present state, picking it up for a bit of a run!

  30. So there we have it. The Newspoll defence blown apart:

    a) That they didn’t ask voting intention so couldn’t report it – BS. Party breakdown was included with the AS questions

    b) That it would put their polling out of sequence – BS. They polled 3 times in 3 weeks only last month

    c) That they didn’t want to interfere with the ACN poll – BS. They already polled at the same time as ACN 3 times this year

    Newspoll, hang your head in shame. Your reputation is in tatters.

  31. [But aren’t their clients News Ltd and Fairfax? Their ‘customers’ are not the buyers of the newspapers.]

    The clients they make their income from are “commercial” clients. ie Financial Institutions, Banks, Retail Companies etc. The whole gammit of the business world uses surveys to determine everything from production targets, advertising style and budgets and a heap of other reasons.

    There are literally hundreds of these done each week. I do a couple of them on-line regularly and am often surveyed by phone!

  32. I honestly hope the government is taking notice of Newspoll’s actions here. They obviously shouldn’t publicly state anything about them being dodgy, but certainly they should think about starting to trump the other pollsters as being ‘more reliable’, as a way of getting the word out there about this whole questionable episode.

  33. And also, these very same commercial clients are also in many cases, clients of the two News providers mentioned also.

    They advertise with them providing lucrative cash streams, they also enjoy patronage through favourable news coverage.

    If they were being provided with false or misleading survey results to enhance their intention to advertise based on those survey results, then……. how much imagination does one need to see massive potential for conflict of interest and potential to damage business competitiveness!

    If caught out on impropriety, it also has enormous potential to damage the news providers! A risky game if being played!

  34. No, you’re all getting carried away here.

    Trade Practices protects consumers from poorly made products, or misleading and deceptive advertising etc.

    Or, stops (or should stop) a large competitor bankrupting a smaller competitor by selling below cost, or stops one retailer pressuring manufacturers to supply them with exclusive goods, or at different prices (volume and quantity issues aside) etc

    These are clear consumer protection and competition enhancing laws, it’s got nothing to do with pollsters, supplying or not supplying poll data to be published.

    You may be annoyed with the media’s over reaction to the Newspoll, but don’t forget, Rudd himself over reacted to the result.

    Besides, none of this changes people voting intentions anyway. That’s a delusion that some in the media feel, but don’t fall into the same trap.

  35. Can the government look at revoking or changing the rodent’s cross-media ownership laws? Howard put too much power in the hands of too few players, friendly to his partisan cause, of course. Besides anything else, policy that encourages media concentration is an assault on democracy. As we might well be seeing in this instance.

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