Nielsen: 56-44

The keenly awaited monthly Nielsen poll of 1400 respondents has Labor’s two-party lead down just slightly to 56-44 from 57-43 a month ago. Likewise, Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 45 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down three points to 68 per cent and his disapproval is up five to 28 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up two points to 37 per cent, and his disapproval is steady on 53 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 69-23 to 68-22. Michelle Grattan provides further details on responses to asylum seeker policies:

As the effort to persuade the 78 Sri Lankans on the Oceanic Viking to disembark in Indonesia continues, 47 per cent of Australians disapprove of how the Prime Minister is handling the asylum-seeker issue; 45 per cent approve … Nearly two-thirds of Coalition voters disapproved, compared with one-third of Labor voters and just over half the Greens supporters … just 13 per cent thought the Government’s asylum-seeker policy was too harsh; 37 per cent said it was about right. Only 6 per cent of Coalition voters and 14 per cent of ALP voters said the policies were too hard. Labor voters were more than twice as likely to rate the policies too soft as too harsh. Nearly four in 10 Greens voters said they were too harsh.

UPDATE: The Australian offers results from that follow-up Newspoll we’ve been hearing about, but at this stage at least there are no figures on voting intention. It instead focuses on attitudes to asylum seeker policy, with results that largely echo those of last week’s Essential Research survey: 53 per cent disapprove of the government’s handling of the issue against 31 per cent approve, but only 22 per cent believe the Coalition would do a better job against 21 per cent for Labor. Forty-six per cent believe the government’s response has been too soft against 16 per cent too hard.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research: 59-41, i.e. unchanged on the last few weeks. However, Rudd’s approval ratings have taken a hit. Further questions on interest rates and yet another one on whether the government’s asylum seeker policies are tough, weak or just right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

895 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44”

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  1. AUSTRALIANS are divided over how Kevin Rudd is handling the asylum-seeker issue in an Age/Nielsen poll that takes some skin off the Prime Minister but contains little joy for Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull.

    Kevin Rudd’s disapproval is up 5 points and 44 per cent of Australians think current asylum-seeker policy is too soft.

    But Labor’s two-party lead has fallen only 1 point in a month. The ALP’s margin is 56-44 per cent, which would give the Government extra seats.

    Mr Turnbull’s hopes that the Labor plunge in last week’s Newspoll would continue have been dashed, although the asylum-seeker issue seems to be a small negative for Mr Rudd.

    Mr Turnbull’s approval rating has risen only slightly, and the Coalition’s primary vote has increased only 1 point, to 38 per cent, 7 points behind Labor’s 45 per cent (down 1 point).

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/nation-split-on-rudds-asylumseeker-stance-20091108-i3in.html

  2. People’s feeling regard to the AS issue I am sure is to do with the confusion presented in the media and Rudd’s inability to some clear plan, even if it was just rehtoric. Most people probably couldn’t even tell you what has been going on.

    So this is not much different to last month within MOE and I think is what I predicted.

    [Predictions Nielson and Newspoll? Prior to the over the top noise over the last Newspoll I would have predicted..something like newspoll 58/43 and nielson 57/45 but now I would guess at 57/43 and 56/45 – not because of the noise but because of Rudd’s lack of clearly dealing with the issues.]

    So common a 57 Newspoll.

  3. I was hoping that Newspoll would put its out tonight, but so far nothing.

    They probably decided to wait until after Neilsen put out its poll so as not to be caught out and embarrassed as they were last Tuesday!

  4. To be honest I am surprised the disapproval for the asylum seeker issue isn’t higher. I though we were more bigoted then that! Remember in the disapproved column is also those who think Rudd is ‘too hard’ i.e. greens.

  5. La Stupenda in a surprisingly lucid mood:

    [People won’t turn to an Opposition in a shambles, which doesn’t present an alternative. The Opposition’s problems are easy to see, but Turnbull seems unable to fix them. Its fractures over emissions trading will be on view daily in coming weeks.

    In these circumstances it would be surprising if the polls got better for it any time soon, other than the occasional rogue.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/rudd-gets-asylum-from-a-rogue-poll-20091108-i3iq.html

  6. Doesn’t matter too much what Newspoll puts out now. Nielsen with 2xMorgan and ER all point to one thing – virtually no change. Unless Newspoll have some new fan dangled method that picks up something the others can’t.

    So like I said before. The Libs have now fired every bullet in the chamber, their last great hope, boat people, failing to make a discernible impact. The cupboard is bare.

    Maybe Rudd will take a few more hits over the next week on the issue but in the end he will come out with something that will satisfy the populace he is dealing with the issue.

    Bringing Howard out of the closest may just remind people the Libs are stuck in a previous era.

  7. Those figures on peoples attitudes towards the Government’s handling of thr AS issue somewhat reflect what Essential picked up from first glance.

    I shall have a closer look to compare to see if there is any movement of consequence since the Essential came out, but it doesn’t look dramatically different.

    I think you are right, TP!

  8. [Bringing Howard out of the closest may just remind people the Libs are stuck in a previous era.]

    Yes, and the reverence shown to every Murdoch pearl of wisdom doesn’t work as well as it used to, either.

  9. BB,
    [Its fractures over emissions trading will be on view daily in coming weeks.]

    After reading what transpired at the Liberal’s Victorian Conference, that is not surprising!

    [CLIMATE change sceptics in the Liberal Party will not be silenced despite Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull’s contention there is ”overwhelming support … right across the board” within party ranks for a carbon trading scheme.

    The sceptics dominated debate on climate change in a meeting of the Victorian division of the Liberal Party yesterday.

    One rank-and-file Liberal member was given rousing applause when he said global warming was a natural phenomenon and the theory that human activity had caused it was ”absolute rubbish”.

    Another speaker said those proposing action on climate change were working towards creating a ”world government”, while a third said any engagement on the issue would signal that the Liberals had ”raised the white flag”.

    The grassroots debate highlights the huge task Mr Turnbull faces as he tries to bring his party with him on amendments to the Government’s carbon pollution reduction scheme.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-sceptics-persist-against-turnbull-20091107-i2vs.html

  10. Regardless of the Newspoll which is neither here nor there now, Turnbull now has a problem with the ETS in trying to not let it damage the brand further. He could go for a conscience vote to save face.

  11. [Another speaker said those proposing action on climate change were working towards creating a ”world government”]

    Seriously, some of the tin foil hat brigade need a good slappin’

  12. [CLIMATE change sceptics in the Liberal Party will not be silenced despite Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull’s contention there is ”overwhelming support … right across the board” within party ranks for a carbon trading scheme.]

    But… but… they gave him a STANDING ovation!

  13. So it’s official.

    “Labor voters were more than twice as likely to rate the policies too soft as too harsh.”

    Does this mean ~60% of Labor voters think Rudd’s too soft, versus 30%?

    Well there we have it folks.

    A majority of Australians think this Labor government are soft touches.

  14. [CLIMATE change sceptics in the Liberal Party will not be silenced despite Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull’s contention there is ”overwhelming support … right across the board” within party ranks for a carbon trading scheme.]

    Get off the Titanic you fools.

  15. [Another speaker said those proposing action on climate change were working towards creating a ”world government”]

    Did anyone else note Pies’ very quick side comment “And I don’t believe in them” on the United Nations’ today? Got a laugh from the panel.

  16. [Malcolm Turnbull’s contention there is ”overwhelming support … right across the board” within party ranks for a carbon trading scheme.]

    He actually was talking about the Labor Party here. There is absolutely “NO” chance he could have been talking about the Liberal Party let alone the “Coalition”! 😉

  17. [I am simply stating what a majority of Australians are thinking?]

    What they are thinking is that, despite the asylum seeker rumpus, next election they’re going to teach your side a lesson they’ll never forget.

  18. Going by this, Rudd’s handling of the issue so far hasn’t really cost him any skin.

    This, combined with his approval figures in Monday’s Newspoll, to me, clearly point to it being an outlier and means a further headache for Newspoll to work out what went wrong!

    [Mr Rudd’s approval was 68 per cent (down 3 points); his disapproval was up 5 points to 28 per cent, giving an 8-point fall in net approval (that is, subtracting disapproval from approval). Mr Rudd’s disapproval was consistent with his long-term average (26 per cent).

    The increases in Mr Rudd’s disapproval rating were greatest among Coalition and Greens voters.

    Mr Turnbull’s approval was up 2 points to 37 per cent; his disapproval was steady on 53 per cent. Mr Rudd leads as preferred prime minister 68 per cent (down 1 point) to Mr Turnbull’s 24 per cent (up 1 point). ]
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/nation-split-on-rudds-asylumseeker-stance-20091108-i3in.html

  19. [But voters are also unimpressed with the opposition, with just 22 per cent convinced that the Coalition would better handle the issue if it were in government.]

    What Newspoll is saying is ‘a pox on both yer houses’, but what will the ‘pundits’ say…

  20. Oh dear TTH – “But voters are also unimpressed with the opposition, with just 22 per cent convinced that the Coalition would better handle the issue if it were in government.”
    From the oz link provided by Zombie (26)

  21. “This is a real blow to you and your side TTH and you know it.”

    As I’ve stated before.. it’s an ONGOING problem.

    You actually have to fix it and DO something for the problem to go away. Otherwise it’s going to get much much worse.

    Lets see what Australians think of Rudd’s soft touch Asylum policies after another year of boatpeople flooding here, another year of stunts/blackmail attempts, and another year of possible drownings.

    There’ll be plenty more Oceanic Vikings for you to deal with, I assure you.

  22. If the so called flood hasn’t had the desired effect already with the media barrage that has taken place it won’t over the next while either. The opposition are not seen as being able to do any better. Ergo potency lost.

  23. It’s looking more and more like vindication for those of us who early on called the Newspoll a rogue and outlier. After this, will it continue to be, or does it still deserve to be, held up as the definitive poll, the one which sets the news agenda for the cycle? Seems Newspoll has taken a bigger hit to its credibility than Mr Rudd has taken.

  24. The OC is a special case. That has been the main story, not the boat arrivals. They are a 15 second news item and most people are used to it now. Face it TTH, the truth is hurting for you.

  25. Who writes this rubbish? According to Neilsen, Rudd is on a PPM of 68%. How in the blazes can a majority of voters think he is doing a bad job. isn’t 68 bigger than 49?

    [KEVIN Rudd is doing a “bad job” on managing asylum-seekers, according to a majority of voters, while almost half think he is “too soft” on the issue.

    A Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian reveals 53 per cent think the government is doing a bad job of handling the large influx of asylum-seeker boats this year, while only 31 per cent of voters are happy with the Prime Minister’s performance on the issue.

    Labor voters are increasingly concerned about Mr Rudd’s stance, with the number of supporters who believe he is doing a good job on asylum-seekers falling from 53 per cent in April to 44 per cent. ]
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26323224-421,00.html

  26. [Lets see what Australians think of Rudd’s soft touch Asylum policies after another year]

    Let’s see in a few years’ time what Australians think of the Liberals’ agenda to attack the pay, conditions and job security of working families. It’s the Liberals’ ONGOING problem because it’s their ONGOING ideological stance.

  27. [PS. Can I now stop having my post’s censored, as I am simply stating what a majority of Australians are thinking? :-)]

    Or is the REAL reason you are in moderation is because William has “banned” the nickname” “Generic Person”, and despite the name change you are still posting under the aforementioned banned person’s IP Address/login details ? 🙂

  28. [Lets see what Australians think of Rudd’s soft touch Asylum policies after another year of boatpeople flooding here, another year of stunts/blackmail attempts, and another year of possible drownings.]
    This really is just raving, scaremongering and exaggeration. You’ve lost it old son.

  29. [Nielsen: 56-44]

    da honeymoon is over,pack your bags rudd and get ready for the turnbull express.

    Oh, the figure is 56 to labor,
    😉

    still the msm and their opinista’s know rudds doomed,they just dont know when.,dont know where but they know that it will happen
    (unca rupe promised em and unca howie promised as well)

  30. Kevin Rudd is “not” the Government. He is the Prime Minister “of” the Government! There is a “difference”!

    I suppose you could say Labor voters are a “majority” of voters but really, comparing figures with “April”! That’s drawing a long bow, surely. There was only a trickle of boats coming then and there wasn’t the drama’s of the past three weeks then!

    [Labor voters are increasingly concerned about Mr Rudd’s stance, with the number of supporters who believe he is doing a good job on asylum-seekers falling from 53 per cent in April to 44 per cent.]

  31. [Who writes this rubbish? ]

    Answering my own question. Samantha Maiden and Amanda Hodge. It’s up on the Oz web site now.

    Maybe News Ltd got cold feet about releasing the voting intention figures and just decided to release the figures on peoples attitudes towards the Government’s handling of the AS issue!

    Probably too embarrassed to release them! 😉

  32. [Labor voters are increasingly concerned about Mr Rudd’s stance, with the number of supporters who believe he is doing a good job on asylum-seekers falling from 53 per cent in April to 44 per cent.]

    Like I said, not much emotion in the issue and the reason for dissatisfaction would have been lack of clarity and the noise the media made. After all we are talking about 78 rescued at sea for Indonesia who are now stuck at a port off Indonesia…hardly a major boat people issue.

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