Following last week’s surprising and almost certainly rogue Newspoll result, The Australian sent its pollster out into the field again over the weekend for an eagerly anticipated follow-up survey. However, when the results were published yesterday, all that was offered was attitudinal results on asylum seekers – although breakdowns by party support made clear that voting intention had also been ascertained. This sent Gary Morgan on the offensive:
Newspoll should have conducted another poll as soon as possible when they saw the dramatic change in their results – and if different, released the data to correct the misconceptions caused by their “rogue” poll … A statistical analysis of the data reported on Australians’ attitudes to “boat people” issues – specifically the breakdown by “Political support” – suggests the ALP vote in that poll was very strong. The percentage supporting each political party clearly should have been released. Polls and their publishers should not seek to set the agenda by selectively releasing polling data. Polls and their publishers are powerful but with that power comes responsibility.
Queried by Andrew Crook of Crikey, The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell explained that “even Crikey” should be able to understand that a non-fortnightly set of voting intention figures would cause a disturbance in the force. Mitchell further invoked a Beatles-and-the-Stones style arrangement between Newspoll and Nielsen in which they have agreed not to step on each other’s releases. Yet just one month ago, on the same day that Nielsen produced its regular monthly poll, The Australian published a “special Newspoll survey” on the Liberal leadership in between its regular fortnightly polls, and was not in the least bit shy about informing us that the sample produced the same 58-42 split in favour of Labor as recorded the previous week. In fairness, it should be noted that Crikey “understands that on Sunday morning, Newspoll chief Martin O’Shannessy contacted his Nielsen counterpart John Stirton and agreed not to release the two-party preferred vote to The Australian”.
My own concern with all this is that I was hoping for a new poll result to hang my regular set of electoral updates off, and didn’t get one. Here they are:
• The saga surrounding the YouTube Downfall parody aimed at Mitchell MP Alex Hawke over his feud with former Right ally and state upper house MP David Clarke has lifted a rock on preselection manoeuvres for safe Liberal state seats. Hawke-Hitler is portrayed in the video castigating himself for having backed Hills Shire councillor Andrew Jefferies to depose incumbent Wayne Merton in Baulkham Hills. The Clarke forces have been hoping the seat might instead go to Damien Tudehope, who has a not inconsiderable public profile as spokesman for the NSW Family Association – and whose son Thomas has just resigned as Malcolm Turnbull’s media adviser after being linked to the aforesaid YouTube video. The infamous episode where 40 Clarke supporters showed up at a Young Liberal branch meeting at Hawke’s office, prompting Hawke’s staff to call the police, reportedly occurred as part of efforts to secure Baulkham Hills for Tudehope. In Castle Hill, Clarke faction operative Dominic Perrottet (whose brother Charles has just resigned as Clarke’s chief-of-staff after he too was linked to the YouTube video) has been plotting to depose incumbent Michael Richardson. On the other side of the pendulum, Hawke is apparently backing another ally, state Young Liberals president Scott Farlow, for the seat of Drummoyne (which Labor’s Angela D’Amore holds by a margin of 7.6 per cent), while Clarke man Kevin Conolly hopes to again contest Riverstone, where he ran against Labor’s John Aquilina in 2007.
• Stephanie Peatling of the Sydney Morning Herald reveals the identity of the abortive Right challenger to Philip Ruddock in Berowra: Richard Quinn, a Hunters Hill councillor. A Ruddock supporter specifically identifies Quinn’s backers as “the Taliban faction”, meaning the forces associated with David Clarke. Quinn has “now expressed interest in Bennelong”, which would put him up against former tennis player and unsuccessful Bradfield preselection aspirant John Alexander, plus another previously unheralded entrant in “businessman Mark Chan”.
• Lisa Carty of the Sydney Morning Herald explains Labor’s recent western Sydney preselection shenanigans in terms of a deal in which the Right will retain its hold on Fowler following Julia Irwin’s retirement at the next election, despite the numbers in local branches being finely poised between the two factions. The Right’s favoured candidate for Fowler is Ed Husic of the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union, who was defeated by Louise Markus when he ran in Greenway at the 2004 election. In return for not pursuing a claim in Fowler, the Left will be awarded Werriwa at the expense of Right incumbent Chris Hayes. However, state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite is quoted in the article saying there is “no deal to shift (Hayes) to Macarthur”. That hasn’t stopped an avalanche of reports about whether Werriwa will go to Reid MP Laurie Ferguson, as proposed by Julia Gillard and the soft Left, or Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union organiser Damien Ogden, the candidate of Anthony Albanese and the hard Left.
• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports claims Labor internal polling of 650 voters in Robertson shows Belinda Neal set to be dumped by a swing of “about 20 per cent”, although this has naturally been denied by state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite. The report also quotes Labor sources suggesting recent talk of a run for the premiership by her husband John Della Bosca has been raised for use as a “bargaining chip” to protect Neal’s position.
• The Queensland Liberal National Party has preselected Hajnal Ban, Logan councillor, Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007 and recipient of an eye-watering Russian surgical procedure to lengthen her legs, as its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. Unsuccessful candidates included Cameron Thompson, the former Liberal member for
Blair (who was presumably handicapped by an understanding that the seat was the domain of the Nationals), and Gold Coast councillor and former children’s television presenter Bob La Castra.
• Former Senator, one-time Democrats leader and blogosphere identity Andrew Bartlett will run for the Greens at the federal election in Brisbane, which Labor’s Arch Bevis holds with a diminished post-redistribution margin against the LNP of 3.8 per cent. Antony Green explains why he won’t win.
• Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports Labor preselection nominations for Canning, Cowan and Swan will close on December 1, and candidates will be chosen by mid-December.
• The Macquarie Street blog of Poll Bludger regular Oz informs us that NSW upper house MP Gordon Moyes, long estranged from the Christian Democratic Party from which he was elected, has announced he is joining Family First.
• Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reports that Anna Bligh will respond to the state’s review on accountability by moving to impose a $1000 cap on political donations unless the federal government does likewise before July 2010, as well as imposing a ban on “success fees” to lobbyists.
“Polls and their publishers should not seek to set the agenda”
Now thats a laugh coming from Morgan. He’s been releasing pro-Labor biased polls for the last 10 Years. Either he is doing this on purpose or he is too bloody lazy to fix the bias/error margin.
I’m thinking the former.
William not sure if you’re interested, but the AAP also confirms Warren Entsch has nominated for preselection for Leichardt (to be held this Sunday).
Following on from the previous thread,
On the survey results being manipulated, I assume this relates to newspaper readership, the figures are done by Morgan
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/press-releases/2009/917/
As for colluding to distort research data for commercial outfits, that just doesn’t make any sense.
They have different clients, and jealously guard the data they collect anyway. They aren’t going to collude and destroy their reputations, for what?
I can’t remember who mentioned it, but there was also the suggestion that the poll results were of great consumer interest. Apart from us lunatics, and the other lunatics in the political industry, no-one else cares.
It is interesting to note that CC has been described as the New Religion by the CC deniers & co. Yet, it was Minchin that stated the many in the Liberal Party do not believe that CC was caused by human.
Hallelujah, I am a believer.
Itep
I once told Warren Entsch that the tie he was wearing was the “worst bloody tie I had seen in my life.” He took it as a compliment.
[Now thats a laugh coming from Morgan. He’s been releasing pro-Labor biased polls for the last 10 Years. Either he is doing this on purpose or he is too bloody lazy to fix the bias/error margin.
I’m thinking the former.]
You do realise that Morgan has run as a Liberal Party candidate, right?
william,
the australians newspoll flash application has not been updated.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics
I sent an email to both newspoll and the australian asking why they are displaying data that is 6 mths old.
No reply as yet.
🙁
Gus,
Maybe they are trying to fudge the numbers.
I’m starting to build my tin hat.
Silly question, but as a non-statistician I’m still getting my head around this statement:
“A statistical analysis of the data reported on Australians’ attitudes to “boat people” issues – specifically the breakdown by “Political support” – suggests the ALP vote in that poll was very strong”.
So the aforementioned statistical analysis was sufficient to suggest that the ALP vote was “strong”. However, the same analysis is not sufficient to provide an exact percentage for the ALP vote? Did it merely give a range on what the ALP vote might be?
The obvious explanation is that the Newspoll had Labor on 58 or so, which just makes their poll from last week look nutty.
William, Your commentary ends in a odd way
[The report also quotes Labor sources suggesting recent talk of a run for the premiership by her husband John Della Bosca has been ra]
[However, the same analysis is not sufficient to provide an exact percentage for the ALP vote? Did it merely give a range on what the ALP vote might be?]
Yeah! Why doesn’t Morgan reveal this statistical analysis NOW!
No one has a “right” to see Newspolls data.
Only the person who paid for the data has a right to see it(probably The Australian).
Therefore if it’s not in their best interest they will not release it. You may be amazed to find political parties, including the Labor Party do the exact same thing, run a poll but never release the results.
Thanks Tom, something went awry there for a few minutes. All better now.
[You do realise that Morgan has run as a Liberal Party candidate, right?]
So? Look at Roy Morgan. It’s rather hypocritical of him to go on about Newspoll when it’s been shown time and time again to be closer. 63.5% Labor 2PP federally and 66% state, with regular outliers, pffft. People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
All better indeed – interesting commentary
[Only the person who paid for the data has a right to see it(probably The Australian).
Therefore if it’s not in their best interest they will not release it.]
You’re completely missing the point. In order to avoid a perception of bias, Newspoll must release all the polls they do.
If they weren’t going to release a poll, you’d think it would be the one with a 7% swing, that they could’ve dismissed as being flawed on the grounds that it is unbelievable.
[If they weren’t going to release a poll, you’d think it would be the one with a 7% swing, that they could’ve dismissed as being flawed on the grounds that it is unbelievable.]
Excellent point.
TTH
But the political parties are just that. They by their very definition are biased and self-interested.
On the other hand News Ltd is supposed to be “fair and balanced” to take the motto of FoxNews.
[The obvious explanation is that the Newspoll had Labor on 58 or so, which just makes their poll from last week look nutty.]
It wouldn’t need to be that high though. Even a 56 would make the 52 just look utterly wrong, especially when all the other polls in the meantime have been steady. One thing’s for sure, there will have been some interesting converations going on at News Ltd this week.
Surely Morgan is within their rights to (a) expose the “boat people” poll to a statistical analysis; and (b) release this analysis. Obviously they have already done (a), because they have said as much (hence the comment that the ALP vote was “strong”. So why not (b)?
[The Queensland Liberal National Party has preselected Hajnal Ban, Logan councillor, Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007 and recipient of an eye-watering Russian surgical procedure to lengthen her legs, as its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. Unsuccessful candidates included Cameron Thompson, the former Liberal member for Blair (who was presumably handicapped by an understand that the seat was the domain of the Nationals)]
The next election results will be interesting. Now we’ll have the Libs, the Nats, the LNP, and the Country Libs, with % and seat swings away from the Libs and Nats to make up for the new LNP vote in QLD. LNP for QLD, Lib/Nat for NSW and VIC, Lib (and ind Nat) for WA and SA, Lib for Tas and ACT, and Country Lib for NT.
What a mess. I can’t see them winning an election so divided. I hope the Libs/coalition/LNP/whatever break their record 13 years in opposition. The punishment for inflicting us with Howard must be long and painful.
Just because PBers are paranoid about the OO does not mean that the OO is not nefariously witholding poll results.
(Or improved grammar and writing to that effect.)
“You’re completely missing the point. In order to avoid a perception of bias, Newspoll must release all the polls they do.”
HA!!
Including all the ones the political parties pay them to do?? Come off it.
Newspoll is a private company, they work to make money and for their clients, not in the goodness of mankind. If The Australian newspaper said “Don’t release”, then newspoll won’t release the data. If you pay them $100,000 or whatever it costs to get a poll done, i’m sure they’ll be happy to release the figures to the public and anything else to your hearts content.
[Newspoll is a private company, they work to make money and for their clients, not in the goodness of mankind. If The Australian newspaper said “Don’t release”, then newspoll won’t release the data. If you pay them $100,000 or whatever it costs to get a poll done, i’m sure they’ll be happy to release the figures to the public and anything else to your hearts content.]
All of that is entirely irrelevant to what you were replying to:
[In order to avoid a perception of bias, Newspoll must release all the polls they do]
Who pays the piper, calls the tune.
In this case the tune must be a sweet nothing.
Is there anybody else who thinks that we may see the creation of a new centre-right, slightly dampish, conservative party some time in the next year or two?
Or does the Rudd/Gillard Government already fill that bill?
Yes, but you’re all missing the big issue: if newspoll had released its 2PP figure, William would have had a proper title for this thread.
Get with the program!
[Is there anybody else who thinks that we may see the creation of a new centre-right, slightly dampish, conservative party some time in the next year or two?
Or does the Rudd/Gillard Government already fill that bill?]
I think we’re at the point in the development of the two party system where splits don’t really happen anymore. Splits don’t happen over nothing. There needs to be something big and overarching. If Turnbull fails he fails. The party will churn through leaders, not split, same with Labor. Factions are more developed than ever. Everyone knows disunity is death.
Interesting survey from the Illawarra on CPRS today:
[Region backs carbon scheme despite threat to jobs
BY BRETT COX
10 Nov, 2009 09:39 AM
The Illawarra is supporting the Federal Government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, despite the potential impacts on jobs and the region’s economy, a new survey shows.
Two-thirds of respondents to a Illawarra Regional Information Service survey said they supported the introduction of the Government’s scheme to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The survey of 300 people also found that 55 per cent believed the actions of an individual could help slow climate change, while more than half said they were prepared to pay more for electricity if it was generated from renewable sources.]
http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/
zoomster
I appreciate your excellent contribution to us all getting a proper focus and a proper sense of scale.
[Yes, but you’re all missing the big issue: if newspoll had released its 2PP figure, William would have had a proper title for this thread.]
Spot on! 😀
There is a great side to this whole 52-48 thing.
Finally, the left gets to inflict unfamiliar type of pain on the right. The pain of losing a decent gain in polling. And it will come many more times.
I thought that the most frightening moment of the lot during Four Corners came when the ultimate realist indicated that ‘clean coal’ was about 20-30 years away. I mean, we all knew that, but here we had a main figure willing to admit it.
[I can’t remember who mentioned it, but there was also the suggestion that the poll results were of great consumer interest. Apart from us lunatics, and the other lunatics in the political industry, no-one else cares.]
Aristotle, perhaps no one except “us lunatics” cares that the voting figures from this week weren’t published, but much was made of the figures from last week’s poll by the News Ltd. and ABC hacks. They clearly thought a lot of people would care about those numbers and flogged them to death throughout the week, right up until Milne’s column on Sunday. Even the writers who admitted early in their pieces that the poll might be an outlier, carried on in the body of their work as if it wasn’t. Worst, having to put up with TruthHurts’ triumphant drivel was almost suicide inducing.
Now that (as seems likely) last week’s numbers are proved to be vapourware, the whole theme of last week should be retracted. It turns out the announcement of Rudd’s political death was a little premature. All the business about Rudd “taking a hit”, failing to keep the under-50s loyal, on the run, out of touch with community sentiment, and the Liberals finally learning to concentrate on Labor and not themselves etc. etc. were garbage. They were baseless.
But until the new figures are published News Ltd is allowed to run last week’s poll as “The Benchmark” (as Milne called it).
The real story is that Rudd hasn’t taken much of a hit at all. The real story is that Asylum Seekers aren’t the deal-breaker that they used to be. The real story is that the Coalition can’t take a trick off Labor.
However, it is the baseless story of the “Rudd Disaster” that is still current. And that is why the latest figures should have been published, an honest explanation provided and the record corrected.
[Including all the ones the political parties pay them to do??]
Which would likely be, how many? My guess would be “0”, zero!
Labor uses their own polling firm and the Libs, Crosby/Textor and maybe one or two others but much cheaper than Newspoll!
Gravel
If you are around, I checked the Apac site just now to see when the CC repeats will be on but they still haven’t got the program times up so I sent them an email to ask why.
Hope the hospital visit wasn’t anything serious.
While on the subject of the CC the Cowra mayor was impressed with Kev and his crew. 😉
[The Community Cabinet meetings in Bathurst on Monday with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Senior Government Ministers were a great success. The meetings gave us an excellent opportunity to talk to the Federal Ministers to raise important local and regional issues that are important to all in our community in their daily lives. The Ministers in attendance were receptive to our views on the issues we were there to discuss. These issues included securing the corridor for the Bells Line Expressway, the level of funding provided from the Federal Government for community groups in the region, transport infrastructure, telecommunications (including digital TV) and potential issues presented by water security and climate change.]
I mean who needs to pay for the OO when local papers like this one most likely get chucked on your lawn for free each week 😉
http://www.cowraguardian.com.au/news/local/news/general/from-the-mayors-desk/1673103.aspx
Gusface,
Any figures will do for OO, real or made up.
[Everyone knows disunity is death.]
You forgot a bit!
“Except for the Coalition!”
Newpoll run the poll for Limited News and Limited News is perfectly entitled to withhold the data completely if they so desire. To publish some of the data only when recent practice is to release the 2PP info as well is just plain unprofessional if not downright unethical. The good news is they they have been caught out.
My concern goes a little deeper than the wrongs identified in other posts. I expect that there will be a number of voters who are swayed by which party is portrayed as on the up or in decline. I expect there will be some shift to the Libs simply due to the perception that Labor has slipped. Swingers like to think they can spot back a winner especially if it’s a couple of lengths behind at the last bend but finishing strongly. The opposition did not ‘earn’ that boost; it was presented to them despite their failure to enunciate anything resembling an AS policy of their own.
Geez, some of the posts here put me in the mood to break a few of William’s guidelines
[You forgot a bit!
“Except for the Coalition!”]
When there’s that much internal disunity, it’s sure to come out. But all things considered, the coalition isn’t doing too bad at keeping it behind closed doors.
On the surface, the Peacock/Howard years look more disunified, but I think underneath, there’s more disunity than ever. Which is a pity as the coalition should be shown for what they are.
scorpio
Coalition motto: ‘Disunity before dishonour!’
Boarwar
The Liberals seem to be about as divided now as they were with the Australian Democrats split. I could definatly see there being a Liberal Party, a National Party and a ‘Conservative Party’ in a few years time. The Pseudo-Hansonite Rednecks and the Ruling Class, suit-and-tie wearing Tories are moving in opposite directions.
Or should that be: ‘Dishonour before Death?’
no, um ‘Death before Disunity?’
nope um, ‘Disunity before Death?’
Well, I am sure if they keep trying they will get it right sooner or later.
[and the Liberals finally learning to concentrate on Labor and not themselves etc. etc. were garbage. They were baseless.]
Bushfire Bill
It’s not like you to understate things to such a degree as you have done here!
Very out of character. Much better when you tell it how it is!!! 😉
HM
AGW has fundamental implications for society, economy and environment.
If you genuinely think it is a crock then your path is very much one way. If you think it is on, then the path is very much in the other direction. It is hard to see how these views can be reconciled because, logically, there is no middle ground. It is all one way. Or all the other. The cracks can be papered over, but as soon as the rubber hits the road on program and regulation questions, the chasm opens.
Grog,
[Geez, some of the posts here put me in the mood to break a few of William’s guidelines]
Unfortunately, some of us are more easily tempted or have trouble resisting!!! 😉
For the Nats the answer is clear. There is no AGW. Therefore they will not ever vote for an ETS.
For the Liberals the chasm exists. They have folk on both sides of the chasm.
The DD threat merely helps to sharpen the pointy bits.
The CDP is over. Family First is now the minor party of choice for the Fundermentalist Christian Right.