Newspoll: ??-??

Following last week’s surprising and almost certainly rogue Newspoll result, The Australian sent its pollster out into the field again over the weekend for an eagerly anticipated follow-up survey. However, when the results were published yesterday, all that was offered was attitudinal results on asylum seekers – although breakdowns by party support made clear that voting intention had also been ascertained. This sent Gary Morgan on the offensive:

Newspoll should have conducted another poll as soon as possible when they saw the dramatic change in their results – and if different, released the data to correct the misconceptions caused by their “rogue” poll … A statistical analysis of the data reported on Australians’ attitudes to “boat people” issues – specifically the breakdown by “Political support” – suggests the ALP vote in that poll was very strong. The percentage supporting each political party clearly should have been released. Polls and their publishers should not seek to set the agenda by selectively releasing polling data. Polls and their publishers are powerful but with that power comes responsibility.

Queried by Andrew Crook of Crikey, The Australian’s editor Chris Mitchell explained that “even Crikey” should be able to understand that a non-fortnightly set of voting intention figures would cause a disturbance in the force. Mitchell further invoked a Beatles-and-the-Stones style arrangement between Newspoll and Nielsen in which they have agreed not to step on each other’s releases. Yet just one month ago, on the same day that Nielsen produced its regular monthly poll, The Australian published a “special Newspoll survey” on the Liberal leadership in between its regular fortnightly polls, and was not in the least bit shy about informing us that the sample produced the same 58-42 split in favour of Labor as recorded the previous week. In fairness, it should be noted that Crikey “understands that on Sunday morning, Newspoll chief Martin O’Shannessy contacted his Nielsen counterpart John Stirton and agreed not to release the two-party preferred vote to The Australian”.

My own concern with all this is that I was hoping for a new poll result to hang my regular set of electoral updates off, and didn’t get one. Here they are:

• The saga surrounding the YouTube Downfall parody aimed at Mitchell MP Alex Hawke over his feud with former Right ally and state upper house MP David Clarke has lifted a rock on preselection manoeuvres for safe Liberal state seats. Hawke-Hitler is portrayed in the video castigating himself for having backed Hills Shire councillor Andrew Jefferies to depose incumbent Wayne Merton in Baulkham Hills. The Clarke forces have been hoping the seat might instead go to Damien Tudehope, who has a not inconsiderable public profile as spokesman for the NSW Family Association – and whose son Thomas has just resigned as Malcolm Turnbull’s media adviser after being linked to the aforesaid YouTube video. The infamous episode where 40 Clarke supporters showed up at a Young Liberal branch meeting at Hawke’s office, prompting Hawke’s staff to call the police, reportedly occurred as part of efforts to secure Baulkham Hills for Tudehope. In Castle Hill, Clarke faction operative Dominic Perrottet (whose brother Charles has just resigned as Clarke’s chief-of-staff after he too was linked to the YouTube video) has been plotting to depose incumbent Michael Richardson. On the other side of the pendulum, Hawke is apparently backing another ally, state Young Liberals president Scott Farlow, for the seat of Drummoyne (which Labor’s Angela D’Amore holds by a margin of 7.6 per cent), while Clarke man Kevin Conolly hopes to again contest Riverstone, where he ran against Labor’s John Aquilina in 2007.

Stephanie Peatling of the Sydney Morning Herald reveals the identity of the abortive Right challenger to Philip Ruddock in Berowra: Richard Quinn, a Hunters Hill councillor. A Ruddock supporter specifically identifies Quinn’s backers as “the Taliban faction”, meaning the forces associated with David Clarke. Quinn has “now expressed interest in Bennelong”, which would put him up against former tennis player and unsuccessful Bradfield preselection aspirant John Alexander, plus another previously unheralded entrant in “businessman Mark Chan”.

Lisa Carty of the Sydney Morning Herald explains Labor’s recent western Sydney preselection shenanigans in terms of a deal in which the Right will retain its hold on Fowler following Julia Irwin’s retirement at the next election, despite the numbers in local branches being finely poised between the two factions. The Right’s favoured candidate for Fowler is Ed Husic of the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union, who was defeated by Louise Markus when he ran in Greenway at the 2004 election. In return for not pursuing a claim in Fowler, the Left will be awarded Werriwa at the expense of Right incumbent Chris Hayes. However, state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite is quoted in the article saying there is “no deal to shift (Hayes) to Macarthur”. That hasn’t stopped an avalanche of reports about whether Werriwa will go to Reid MP Laurie Ferguson, as proposed by Julia Gillard and the soft Left, or Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union organiser Damien Ogden, the candidate of Anthony Albanese and the hard Left.

Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports claims Labor internal polling of 650 voters in Robertson shows Belinda Neal set to be dumped by a swing of “about 20 per cent”, although this has naturally been denied by state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite. The report also quotes Labor sources suggesting recent talk of a run for the premiership by her husband John Della Bosca has been raised for use as a “bargaining chip” to protect Neal’s position.

• The Queensland Liberal National Party has preselected Hajnal Ban, Logan councillor, Nationals candidate for Forde in 2007 and recipient of an eye-watering Russian surgical procedure to lengthen her legs, as its candidate for the new Gold Coast hinterland seat of Wright. Unsuccessful candidates included Cameron Thompson, the former Liberal member for
Blair (who was presumably handicapped by an understanding that the seat was the domain of the Nationals), and Gold Coast councillor and former children’s television presenter Bob La Castra.

• Former Senator, one-time Democrats leader and blogosphere identity Andrew Bartlett will run for the Greens at the federal election in Brisbane, which Labor’s Arch Bevis holds with a diminished post-redistribution margin against the LNP of 3.8 per cent. Antony Green explains why he won’t win.

Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports Labor preselection nominations for Canning, Cowan and Swan will close on December 1, and candidates will be chosen by mid-December.

• The Macquarie Street blog of Poll Bludger regular Oz informs us that NSW upper house MP Gordon Moyes, long estranged from the Christian Democratic Party from which he was elected, has announced he is joining Family First.

Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail reports that Anna Bligh will respond to the state’s review on accountability by moving to impose a $1000 cap on political donations unless the federal government does likewise before July 2010, as well as imposing a ban on “success fees” to lobbyists.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,656 comments on “Newspoll: ??-??”

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  1. I gather the Govt was trying to resolve the problem before parliament so they could concentrate on the ETS. But doesn’t look good, looks a bit like if people stamp their feet enough the Govt will cave, and a bad example for others lined up in SL and probably a whole bunch of candidates waiting around in Indonesia.

  2. A light game. What food would best represent each politician. Eg Joe Hockey= sloppy joes, or wilson tuckey= boiled fruit cake…
    Bob Brown= tutti fruti icecream?

  3. Everyone should have a bex and a good lay down or grab the popcorn.
    This link was posted earlier and it explains very simply what takes place in rescue at sea.

    http://www.marisec.org/rescueatsea.pdf

    Kevin Rudd has done absolutely nothing wrong and i sincerely hope he does not waver from what the directions are in that link.

    Australia was asked to assist in the rescue of survivors in the Indonesian Rescue Zone.

    They were then required to transport , with permission from Indonesia to enter their ports, survivors to the nearest safe port and the survivors are required to disembark from the ship on their own free will so that the ship can carry on with its legitimate business.
    Indonesia is required to allow these survivors to go ashore and then assist them.

    What happens after all that is all under the control of the UNHCR, and another world.

    Indonesia has not refused to accept these survivors.
    Indonesia has said it does not want the survivors if they are forced from the ship.

    The survivors have refused to leave the ship and therefore are in breach of the Rescue at sea international laws.

    They must comply with these laws as any other deviation from these laws sends a strong,clear, bad, mad and unthinkable message to any other ship anywhere in the world with regard to picking up survivors.

    Australia has played it straight, Indonesia has played it straight, the survivors have failed in their their obligations to disembark on their own free will and therefore nothing will be done by Australia or Indonesia to jeopardise the rescue laws. Nothing else will transpire until they leave under their own free will, and nor should it.

    Forget all the hysteria and BS being shoved out there by persons with other motives who are trying to freak the government in to making a decision to breach the international laws etc, so they can then beat up on that, it will not happen.

    Don’t get excited.
    Nothing will happen until they walk off the ship on their own free will and if that takes two years , too bad. The Australian and Indonesian Governments should not be party to a breach of the rescue at sea laws in any way.

    What happens after they walk off is another story.

    Julia Gillard said it all.

  4. Finns

    [Yep, i know nothing. i heard nothing. just let them drown.]

    We might have to do something about those pesky dolphins who would stuff up that wonderful plan by rescuing them. We could start calling the rescue dolphins “people smugglers”. 😀

  5. Rudd would want this ended by Monday, the day of his apology to those who were in the orphanages/institutions.
    It’s been a mess all round, the govt should have taken the lot of them to Xmas Island 4 weeks ago.

  6. [I haven’t heard anything from Sloppy Joe since his supposed big speech the other night!}

    joe is like those old wind-up toys of yesteryear,that took seemingly hours and hours to get ready then to fizzle out in two or three seconds of frenetic movement.

    my favorite was the monkeyclown.

  7. I think a new processing place should be set up on Australian antartic territory, they are in Australia technically, but mighty unhappy I reckon.

  8. Boerwar is correct. I think we need to have a serious discussion:
    Copenhagaen looks likely to be a dud. There is no point doing a half-arsed job if that means irreversable Global Warming will happen anyway. We should take on the huge challenge of keeping CO2 to below 350ppm. If Copenhaegan makes it clear that that isn’t even remotly possible then we should give up any attempts to curb CO2 and feel free to pollute willy-nilly. We should then concentrate on adapting to a world with low agricultural productivity, massive biodiversity loss and tonnes of natural disasters. It’s horrible but it will happen whether we do a little or nothing. I can’t believe I am saying this but I think it is almost time to give up.
    I suspect the leaders of the world have drawn the same conclussion I have, we may have the technical and economic ability to prevent run-away climate change but we don’t have the political will. I think they also realize that if it becomes obvious that there is no hope that there will be mass panic, stock market crashes and political unrest. The primary objective of these talks is not to protect the economy/ecology but to temporarily soothe the masses.

  9. [It’s been a mess all round, the govt should have taken the lot of them to Xmas Island 4 weeks ago.]

    Which one sets the worst precedent?

    1. Taking the AS you rescue in Indonesian S&R waters to Xmas Island

    2. Offering a place in Australia after a 6 week wait in Indonesia if you refuse to get off an Australian ship

  10. [Which one sets the worst precedent?

    1. Taking the AS you rescue in Indonesian S&R waters to Xmas Island

    2. Offering a place in Australia after a 6 week wait in Indonesia if you refuse to get off an Australian ship]

    see 1398

  11. Diogenes: either way, it’s a negative for the government because you know how the media and the Liberals will spin it.
    I wish we weren’t still talking about it, it is a massive distraction for Rudd and his ministers when they should be bashing the Liberals over their divisions on climate change.

  12. TP,@1406 I think Rudd govt reduced the processing time to 3 or 4 mths?
    If so apart from the 30 that have already been found to be refugees the rest will still have to go through the 3 mth process.
    [About 30 of the 78 Sri Lankans have already been found to be refugees and have been told that if they go ashore they will be resettled within six weeks.

    The rest will be processed within 12 weeks if they are also given refugee status.]
    Along the lines of what you said
    [The Federal Opposition says the Tamils are getting a special deal not available to other refugees because the Government wants to save face.]

    Senator Evans reply

    [“What we have been doing in recent years, and particularly in the last year or so, was working with Indonesia to deal with the protracted case load,” he said.

    “To make sure people are settled more quickly we have been cooperating with New Zealand, Canada and others to take that burden off Indonesia when they have been found to be refugees.

    “So in my view it’s an extension of what we have been doing already.”]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/12/2741418.htm

  13. Gusface

    That doesn’t look like an answer to my question. 👿

    I’ll come back tomorrow when the collective PB wisdom has worked out the answer.

  14. vera

    There’s a big difference between being processed and being settled. AS can wait for years to get settled from Indonesia after they have been processed and determined to be genuine refugees. This lot will jump ahead of all of them.

  15. [either way, it’s a negative for the government because you know how the media and the Liberals will spin it.]

    I wouldnt just blame the Liberals. Anything to do with the yellow/black hordes has been a negative since 1850s. It’s in Straya’s DNA.

    [Look homeward Angel now, and melt with ruth:
    And, O ye Dolphins, waft the hapless youth.]

  16. Ah Vera, you’ve hit on the solution to stopping unauthorised boat arrivals.
    Make Antartica the new processing centre for asylum seekers – that’d stop the boats coming!

  17. Gaffhook@1409,

    If what you described is correct and the asylum seekers are in breach of international laws, then which agency is responsible for law enforcement? Laws only have power because they are enforceable. It is quite laughable if the offender holds all the chips. A bad analogy would be someone holding up a bank, and police cannot storm the bank because it breaks some kind of law and have to wait for the robber to come out the bank voluntarily…

  18. [Wasn’y Super Julie supposed to have freed Hu by now???]

    I hope Stephen Smith gets to debate her during the next election campaign – send me the popcorn!

  19. [What? Tiger is not leading by 10. Shame, Tiger, Shame.]

    He ought to win the entire tournament by 20 strokes, the opposition consists of a bunch of hasbeen and dud Aussies.

  20. Oh, and while the bank robber refuses to come out the police is obliged to supply food and water plus sleeping tents. The police also offers an amnesty and weekly payment…
    Of course, not saying the asylum seeks are as bad as bank robbers, they clearly aren’t, and some of them would have gone through a great deal of trauma in their lives. But they are in breach of something, and no one appears to be able to take any action.

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