The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan face-to-face survey finds Labor maintaining the remarkable upward trend it has recorded across recent polling: its primary vote is up 2.5 per cent to 52 per cent, the Coalition’s is up 0.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent, while the Greens, Family First and independent/others are all down. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead has edged up from 60-40 to 60.5-39.5. The pattern is further demonstrated by the latest Reuters Poll Trend aggregate, which finds Labor’s two-party lead has crept steadily upwards since June, and has now increased to 59.0-41.0 from 58.0-42.0 a month ago. George Megalogenis of The Australian offers an exquisitely simple hypothesis: “the women swing first, then the men”. This was apparently the pattern when the current governments in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia were elected (I suggest One Nation complicated the picture in Queensland and Western Australia), and it gives every appearance of playing out at present federally. However, there is the curious exception of men under 35, many of whom seem to have abandoned Labor since the onset of the financial crisis.
Other news:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Julia Gillard is “working behind the scenes” to save the career of Laurie Ferguson, a fellow member of the “soft Left” faction who backed the Rudd/Gillard coup against Kim Beazley in December 2006. Ferguson has been left high-and-dry by the effective abolition of his western Sydney seat of Reid, the redrawn seat of that name being the effective successor to its abolished neighbour Lowe. However, Ferguson’s efforts to find a new home are being resisted by the “hard Left” faction of Anthony Albanese. Coorey reports Ferguson believes he has the numbers to win a local preselection vote in Fowler, to be vacated with the retirement of Julia Irwin, but it seems at least as likely that this and other contentious seats will be filled by the decree of Kevin Rudd and the panel of factional leaders which was empowered to make final determinations through a recent change to the party constitution. VexNews intimates that if denied, Ferguson might look at “obtaining support for a potentially expensive and spectacular legal challenge”.
• Paul Sheehan of the Sydney Morning Herald had an interesting piece last week on the Liberal preselection for Cook ahead of the last federal election, which saw the dumping of the initially victorious Michael Towke and his eventual substitution with Scott Morrison. Towke’s Right faction lost the PR battle at the time (as my own electorate profile attests), but as Sheehan tells it, talk that Towke had fudged his CV had little or no foundation in fact. Rather, he was a victim of “a view among some senior Liberals” – evidently including John Howard – that “a Lebanese Australian could not win Cook in a tight election”. It will be recalled that the expanse of southern Sydney covered by the electorate includes Cronulla. Sheehan also relates that the Daily Telegraph’s reporting of Towke’s preselection led to a defamation action which was settled out-of-court with a payment of $50,000.
• Peter Caton of the Tweed Daily News reports the Nationals are struggling to find candidates to run against Labor incumbents Justine Elliot, in the one-time party stronghold of Richmond, and Janelle Saffin, in its marginal neighbour Page. The only known candidate for the latter is Kevin Hogan, who according to The Northern Star “runs his own finance business from his Clunes cattle farm”.
• Pat Farmer, the Liberal member for Macarthur, has as expected been soundly defeated for preselection by Russell Matheson, a police sergeant and former mayor of Campbelltown. The margin was 22 votes to nine.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports the Victorian ALP will follow the footsteps of the NSW Nationals by choosing a state election candidate through a US-style primary. Whereas the Nationals are still to decide which seat in which to conduct their experiment, Labor has earmarked the Liberal-held marginal of Kilsyth. The decision stems from a cross-factional committee report which also recommends reinvigorating the party organisation by slashing membership fees.
• VexNews reports that Louise Staley, who has previously sought federal preselection for Wannon and Menzies, is now hoping for a state berth in the country seat of Ripon, which Labor’s Joe Helper holds on a margin of 4.4 per cent. Staley is a former state party vice-president and Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert. Also said to have nominated are “John van Beveren, a local winery owner and education professor and Vic Dunn, the local inspector at Maryborough”.
• The Australian Review of Public Affairs has published my review article on Australia: The State of Democracy, written by Marian Sawer, Norman Abjorensen and Phil Larkin through the auspices of the Democratic Audit of Australia and published by The Federation Press.
Plenty happening in Tasmania:
• Labor’s troubled first-term member for Bass, Jodie Campbell, has confirmed she will not contest the next election. Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Senator Helen Polley, has been mentioned as a possible successor, which would see the seat’s factional alignment transfer from Left to Right. The Liberals have preselected Steve Titmus, a former television news reader and PR consultant for Gunns Ltd. The winner will be the seat’s sixth member in less than two decades. UPDATE: The Launceston Examiner reports that the new candidate is likely to be determined by prime ministerial fiat “after the dust settles”, and that there is a second potential candidate in Winnaleah District High School principal Brian Wightman, who is currently pencilled in as one of six candidates for the Bass state election ticket.
• Terry Martin, independent member for the northern Hobart upper house division of Elwick, faces criminal charges which regardless of their merits are politically lethal by nature. Martin was elected as a Labor member in 2004, but was expelled by the party in March 2007 after crossing the floor to vote against the government’s fast-tracking of the proposed Tamar Valley pulp mill. He is due to face re-election at the next round of periodical elections in May; a by-election need not be held if the seat is vacated after January 1.
• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports the Liberals have finalised their state election ticket for Denison, adding “renewable energy lawyer Matthew Groom, businesswoman and former Miss Tasmania Sue Hickey, and high-profile school parents advocate and Glenorchy councillor Jenny Branch” to the already announced Michael Hodgman (the sole incumbent), Elise Archer and Matt Stevenson.
• Tasmanian government legislation for fixed terms has been referred to a committee, scuppering any chance of it being passed in the week remaining before a recess that will last until the election. Premier David Bartlett nonetheless swears that the election will be held on March 20, again locking the psephological community into the headache of simultaneous elections in South Australia and Tasmania.
Elsewhere on the site, note that it’s all happening on the Willagee by-election thread, while things are ticking over more slowly yet still surely on the Bradfield and Higgins threads. Observe also the New South Wales Newspoll post immediately below.
Mike Carlton comes up with an amusing little piece in today’s SMH.
[According to this week’s infamous leaked email from a Liberal Party spin doctor, the trick is to whip up public outrage about ”…fat cat public servants not caring about taxpayers, pollies with snouts in the trough, special interest groups getting undeserved handouts from tax taken from hard-working Aussies, a favoured pro-Labor contractor who seems to be getting all the work for a particular job, etc”.
The author of this sage advice was allegedly one Peter Phelps, a flack for an Opposition frontbencher, Michael Ronaldson. I say allegedly because you never know with Canberra emails these days; there’s always the possibility that some hobbit at Treasury has joined the play with a flurry of literary creativity.
Phelps once worked for that hard-right Liberal fruitcake from Tasmania senator Eric Abetz, who was at the epicentre of the hilarious Godwin Grech disaster a few months ago. That should have been warning enough of the perils of a runaway email, you might think, but no. Around and around they go.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gotcha-sexy-turnbulls-dole-spree-20091030-hppg.html
Holy Cow, just now on ABC-TV News, the woman reporter was about to report another Coalition member had spoken out against Turnbull’s ETS strategy and was cut in mid-sentence after the word “another”. This followed her mentioning Minchin’s “hand grenade”.
All conspiracy theories welcome!
I saw that too.
Shows my guilty conscience I guess, but when it got cut off I wondered whether I’d paid my Foxtel bill.
LOL, BB
There must have been an awful lot of phone calls about that truncated piece on the ABC TV news. They ran it again.
Downside was we got even more of Turnbull, looking straight into the camera, hinting about how he’s made a breakthrough on Stern Hu.
[Downside was we got even more of Turnbull, looking straight into the camera, hinting about how he’s made a breakthrough on Stern Hu.]
Hu’s going to run as a liberal candidate??
Cuppa, back at 119. I read the George M. article in the dead tree version earlier today and did a bit of a double take at the conclusions of the final paragraph. Maybe I’m being paranoid, but the subtext seemed to be suggesting that the longer Labor stayed in power, the more disastrous it would be for the country. What do you think?
So who was the other Coalition anti-ETS person then?
I dunno, BB, I reckon when Turnbull does that “we’re governing from opposition” turn, he sounds like a total drongo, unable to comprehend that we noticed that just five minutes ago, some one else from the Opposition was saying “Don’t ask us what we’d do about….., we’re not the government”
I thought this was a great comment to Annabell Crabb’s piece on Kevin Rudd in today’s SMH.
She started out explaining just how “gratious” Rudd can be but then she tried to apply the “two faced” spin to the way he currently reacts to Turnbull and other opponents whom he is treating with some disdain.
[I think you are being a tad unfair on The Ruddbot. Malcolm Turnbull deservedly deserves nothing but contempt from the PM and I admire Mr Rudd for his restraint when dealing with him in Parliament.
Over the past 2 years, the Opposition has been nothing but petty, obstructionist, rude and boorish. I cannot recall an Opposition of such deplorable standard. And now, after 2 years of doing less than nothing they have no better idea than to return like dogs to their own vomit to the very policies of the Howard era that the majority of Australians rejected.
Federal Libs deserve the contempt that the PM and his front bench give them in Parliament. Why should he hold out the hand of bi-partisan friendship when the man it is extended to is a moral vacuum?]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gracious-rudd-turns-grubby-20091030-hppn.html
re the ABC. they are not biased. They are either lazy or lack resources.
The local radio “news” is read from the ABC online verbatim. ABC online is a collection of AAP news wire stories.
The ABC news cycle starts with AM. AM gets its “stories” from The Australian and AAP. How else do they get news at sparrow fart?
My pet peeve is the ABC now seems to think it is OK to get an “expert” from Murdoch or Fairfax to comment, what happened to the ABC experts?
Check it out – read the OZ, then listen to AM. I bet their main story is the Oz main story. 🙁
For a while we had a meme in the media and elsewhere that there was a close connection between the ABC and the ALP and names such as Maxine McKew and Cassidy and the weather fella who contested a seat last election were given as examples of this.
So maybe this info from Friends of the ABC, which lists about 15 persons who share ABC/COALition connections, may ‘balance’ that meme a little.
http://www.friendsoftheabc.org/abc-issues-bias-funding-sponsorship/is-the-abc-biased/why-cant-liberal-party-sympathisers-get-jobs-in
Harry,
For what it is worth, my take on George Megalogenis is that he is probably the fairest and most balance commentator at The Australian but does have somewhat of a “soft spot” for the Libs which he generally disguises but can show through occasionally as in the bit below!
Also he is probably expressing a common belief that good government depends on good opposition but it came out as being a bit partisan!
I don’t really have a problem with this as everyone has their own political leaning and I do appreciate his economic analysis which is right up there with the best of them and generally very fair.
[The next conservative government in Canberra will need to win back women. But while the Coalition’s pitch is a mix of macho retribution and whiney entitlement, Labor will rule for longer than it should, with majorities it doesn’t deserve and which the nation can’t afford to give.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26283230-5013592,00.html
[The next conservative government in Canberra will need to win back women.]
Also young people, working class people and ethnic minorities. Good luck with that.
SNIP: See article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management.
The most laughable aspect of tonight’s news report: the suggestion that Turnball has more diplomatic influence over the Chinese than our PM!
[Also young people, working class people and ethnic minorities. Good luck with that.]
They can forget the ethnic minorities, and regaining Bennelong!
When will it dawn on the Liberal Party that they need to protect the family jewels? If the next election result is half as bad as the polls indicate they surely must start protecting their city based seats.
Surely it is time to encourage a right wing party to form, one that would preference the Libs? Similar to the Greens and Labor.
Ruawake: you want the return of One Nation?
Scorpio,
I dearly wish you had made it absolutely clear that Annabel Crabbe’s piece was yet another hodgepodge of psycho-babel, but without her usual redeeming undergraduate humour. What absolute rubbish to assert that Rudd should treat a leader who employs pit-bull attacks like Turnbull with the same cordiality and respect he treated a decent bloke like Nelson.
[Surely it is time to encourage a right wing party to form, one that would preference the Libs? Similar to the Greens and Labor.]
It works a treat for the NSW Libs in the upper chamber.
If you don’t get a laugh out of this, you certainly should get a chuckle out of the “add” on the right hand side!
[ The Nationals, like a lot of Australian parliamentarians, clearly can’t wait for this fraught year to end. On Thursday night, what once was called the Country Party threw a Christmas party for members of the Canberra press gallery.
It was, we hardly need point out, still October. Nationals leader Warren Truss, a pleasant bloke, explained that he felt it would be a good opportunity to get the event out of the way early because there were only eight days of Parliament left in the year (the MPs and senators will be back in town for their last 2009 hurrah in a couple of weeks) and it was inevitable there would be functions all over the place. If you’re a National, you know it’s tough pulling a crowd when there is competition.]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/politics/with-the-nationals-calling-early-drinks-all-big-bills-christmases-nearly-came-at-once-20091031-hqa7.html
[Ruawake: you want the return of One Nation?]
It will happen, the guys and gals who loved Pauline are still around. A credible person could start a real “conservative” party. The Libs have been trying to stop this, but I think it will happen.
The would allow the Libs to move to the centre and appeal to the “moderates” while still getting right wing nutjob preferences.
scorpio, at least George M. has a brain and a capacity to analyse both economic and political material. Would agree he’s one of the more impartial and therefore interesting to read. Just thought he let it slip there at the end. Catch you later, am going to watch Passchendaele with himself indoors.
[hinting about how he’s made a breakthrough on Stern Hu.]
What’s this???
[What’s this???]
Oh, I just googled it… wow he raised the issue. Gee, job done then I guess. Because of course China will listen to the doofus who a few months back was telling Rudd to tell China to bugger off and give HU back.
Fool.
Hemingway,
You’ll note that I did say that the comment I highlighted was a very apt comment in light of Crabb’s piece.
I thought that in the circumstances of the time that Kevin Rudd was more than gracious in light of Nelson’s “apology”!
He also was more than gracious in offering the hand of bi-partisanship to both Nelson and Turnbull on a number of issues.
This has conveniently been forgotton by most commentators but was, I believe, offered in a genuine way for the country’s overall benefit.
The big mistake by the Libs was in not grabbing that opportunity while it was presented to them and gaining a “free ride” on Rudd’s coat tails while they could.
By just opposing, they created a far larger gap between themselves and Labor that they could have minimised by maintaining some credibility as an “alternative government”.
Few people even amongst the Libs supporters currently see the Coalition as an alternative to Labor now and into the near future!
Ruawake,
[The would allow the Libs to move to the centre and appeal to the “moderates” while still getting right wing nutjob preferences.]
The problem with this is that the Moderates or liberals would be outnumbered by the Conservatives. The preferences would flow the other way and strengthen the Conservatives!!! 🙂
[ruawake
Posted Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 8:35 pm | Permalink
…..
The would allow the Libs to move to the centre and appeal to the “moderates” while still getting right wing nutjob preferences.]
The right wing nutjob’s have other plans, they want the Liberal party as theirs. With a bit more effort they should be able to get a few more nutjobs selected and the Liberal party vote down to 10%.
From “Their ABC”:
[http://www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/ Back in August 2001, the rescue of 460 distressed, mainly Afghan, asylum seekers by the Norwegian cargo ship the MV Tampa divided and changed the nature of Australian politics for years. After being a non-issue at the 2007 election, this week the fate of 78 Sri Lankan asylum seekers, including 10 women and children, stranded on the Australian customs vessel the Oceanic Viking, has dominated the political agenda in both Australia and Indonesia. The event has become an unexpected agony for a Labor government that says it can be both ‘tough and humane]
Part 1:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KT-kPnagaZI
Part 2:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06nY5of2B8Q
Of course this is just “normal climate variability”, it would have nothing to do with climate change, would it? Four in one month. Mmmm!
[MANILA, Philippines – The fourth typhoon to whip the Philippines in a month lashed the capital and nearby provinces Saturday, leaving fresh floods and new misery before blowing out of the country. At least seven people were killed and several were missing.]
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i6eatUwlDQQIHZiKqXjLHTmQSrogD9BLVIT80
[Few people even amongst the Libs supporters currently see the Coalition as an alternative to Labor now and into the near future!]
Scorpio, PB’er Lib Glen appears to be living proof your point.
Hemingway, lol! :-0 😉
[Frank Calabrese
Posted Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 9:13 pm | Permalink
……
unexpected agony for a Labor government that says it can be both ‘tough and humane.]
Frank I am seriously enjoying the Labor government’s pain because I think they should drop the tough bit, but I won’t be changing my vote back to the Liberals because of it.
[The event has become an unexpected agony for a Labor government that says it can be both ‘tough and humane]
It will only be agony if there is a big drop in the polls. If not, nothing lost.
[I am seriously enjoying the Labor government’s pain]
I watched the whole of last week’s parliamenary sittings and I saw no evidence of the government feeling any pain. If anything I think there is a danger of complacency. The Libs’ performance on what is supposed to be their strongest suit (whipping up xenophobic scare campaigns) has been so pathetically bad that Labor MPs are starting to feel invulnerable.
Frank Calabrese,
You could have said that the first link is the totally impartial Fran Kelly doing an interview with the totally impartial Glenn Milne, totally impartial Peter Van Onselen and AWU Head, Paul Howes who has been extremely critical of Rudd’s handling of the AS issue and must also be classed as if not impartial but slightly favouring Labor’s handling of the issue. A big stretch I know, but he is from the Labor side.
So here we have a typical example of the ABC operating under its Terms of Reference, to the letter, with no exception allowed.
Oh, please, spare me!
ps; It is pretty hard to sit and listen to stuff like that without warning!
Its obviously a quiet night (apart from the thunder and lightning in Melbourne). So some random observations from me:
1) I think Annabelle Crabb must have been charmed by malcolm turnbull when she had access to him, I sense she is somewhat partial to his views
2) Luca Curmani’s daughter is a honey. I might even back Cimi de triumphe in the cup just to honour her presence
3) George Mega’s article predicting a Ruddslide was a bit premature. I personally would have waited for the Higgins/Bradfield results before hooting about Ruddslides. Still an’ all, if The Australian’s efforts at building the coalition a new backbone crates no movement in the next Newspoll, it will be fun to see how quickly they drop the issue.
Not looking for any arguments on the above, I’m just saying, you know? Its a slow night….
[ps; It is pretty hard to sit and listen to stuff like that without warning!]
I didn’t even bother playing them cos I knew it was a a load of horse manure, hence pasting the description of the clip.
pps; I haven’t got to the second link yet. My download speed has been slashed and it takes forever to download.
I hope for your sake that it is worth it! Otherwise I might have to come across to Perth by the intertubes and flatten the tyres of your wheelchair! 😉 😉
Mr Squiggle,
[Not looking for any arguments on the above, I’m just saying, you know? Its a slow night….]
If it gets too slow then you can always check out Frank’s links that he “kindly” posted above!!!
[If it gets too slow then you can always check out Frank’s links that he “kindly” posted above!!!]
But they will be music to Squiggle’s ears considering his political leanings 🙂
Bernard Keane in daily Crikey email is always interesting and thought provoking…
[Indeed it’s significant that Rudd’s normally deft touch in communicating his key message has deserted him in recent days and Stephen Smith has looked the more relaxed and calm figure, partly because he doesn’t start talking about “kids behind razor wire” the moment he opens his mouth. Rudd’s behaviour is suggestive of a man who isn’t confident of his own policy.
Eventually that lack of confidence might do more to undermine it than any number of boats. The PM should remember that not everything is a crisis just because some journalists and commentators insist that it is.]
The trouble is the Liberal Party waits until the other mob makes sooo many errors and mistakes they’ll be thrown out. The Liberals dont try to really offer an alternative which they should be doing instead they wait and wait and wait and look at Victorian an incompetent government that will probably be in power for 20 years because nobody wants to vote for the Liberals because they have no voice, no leadership and no policies and it is for those reasons i wont be wasting my time helping them next year in 2010 they can fall in a heap for all i care they dont deserve my support neither does the federal party im not wasting a day.
On the formation of a conservative/ultra right wing party. No thanks we already have the Nats.
The trouble is the moderates have control of the front bench but not the party room.
I honestly hope when we lose next year they really give everything a clean out and get rid of usless MPs and bloody well have some policies.
I hope Hockey is given a fair go but who knows??
What’s this about Malcolm bragging about talking to the Chinese?
They obviously didn’t think it rated a mention, or a photo unlike Kev and Julia 😉
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-10/31/content_12365241.htm
All Blacks gave us a Rugby lesson again!
Oh and bugger it my Melbourne Cup pick Vigor just missed getting a run
OK back to the cricket
192 – Bernard’s talking crap, honestly.
[But they will be music to Squiggle’s ears considering his political leanings :-)]
Frank, he will really appreciate the second part. Fran even has that great Liberal hero, J. W. Howard on defending his asylum policy legacy!!
[Psephos
Posted Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 10:14 pm | Permalink
I am seriously enjoying the Labor government’s pain
I watched the whole of last week’s parliamenary sittings and I saw no evidence of the government feeling any pain.]
So perhaps every one can drop the muslim peril stuff, the hijack nonsense, pack them up, bring them to Christmas island and process them. Perhaps from now on we can give the boat people the same coverage ( and even treatment) as those landing at airports.
In other words, perhaps we could stop the nonsense and move onto more important things.
Gary
From the small snippets of his views I’ve seen cut and pasted here at various times talking crap seems to be the norm with the guy.
Mr. Squiggle. it’s unfortunate for your mob, but you’re in nowhere land for some considerable period of time if the current polls persist. 60.5 to the ALP is 119 seats.
[Bernard Keane in daily Crikey email is always interesting and thought provoking…]
I am sure that many of us here would love you to share some of those provoked thoughts with us sometime, Bob! 😉