The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan face-to-face survey finds Labor maintaining the remarkable upward trend it has recorded across recent polling: its primary vote is up 2.5 per cent to 52 per cent, the Coalition’s is up 0.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent, while the Greens, Family First and independent/others are all down. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead has edged up from 60-40 to 60.5-39.5. The pattern is further demonstrated by the latest Reuters Poll Trend aggregate, which finds Labor’s two-party lead has crept steadily upwards since June, and has now increased to 59.0-41.0 from 58.0-42.0 a month ago. George Megalogenis of The Australian offers an exquisitely simple hypothesis: “the women swing first, then the men”. This was apparently the pattern when the current governments in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia were elected (I suggest One Nation complicated the picture in Queensland and Western Australia), and it gives every appearance of playing out at present federally. However, there is the curious exception of men under 35, many of whom seem to have abandoned Labor since the onset of the financial crisis.
Other news:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Julia Gillard is “working behind the scenes” to save the career of Laurie Ferguson, a fellow member of the “soft Left” faction who backed the Rudd/Gillard coup against Kim Beazley in December 2006. Ferguson has been left high-and-dry by the effective abolition of his western Sydney seat of Reid, the redrawn seat of that name being the effective successor to its abolished neighbour Lowe. However, Ferguson’s efforts to find a new home are being resisted by the “hard Left” faction of Anthony Albanese. Coorey reports Ferguson believes he has the numbers to win a local preselection vote in Fowler, to be vacated with the retirement of Julia Irwin, but it seems at least as likely that this and other contentious seats will be filled by the decree of Kevin Rudd and the panel of factional leaders which was empowered to make final determinations through a recent change to the party constitution. VexNews intimates that if denied, Ferguson might look at “obtaining support for a potentially expensive and spectacular legal challenge”.
• Paul Sheehan of the Sydney Morning Herald had an interesting piece last week on the Liberal preselection for Cook ahead of the last federal election, which saw the dumping of the initially victorious Michael Towke and his eventual substitution with Scott Morrison. Towke’s Right faction lost the PR battle at the time (as my own electorate profile attests), but as Sheehan tells it, talk that Towke had fudged his CV had little or no foundation in fact. Rather, he was a victim of “a view among some senior Liberals” – evidently including John Howard – that “a Lebanese Australian could not win Cook in a tight election”. It will be recalled that the expanse of southern Sydney covered by the electorate includes Cronulla. Sheehan also relates that the Daily Telegraph’s reporting of Towke’s preselection led to a defamation action which was settled out-of-court with a payment of $50,000.
• Peter Caton of the Tweed Daily News reports the Nationals are struggling to find candidates to run against Labor incumbents Justine Elliot, in the one-time party stronghold of Richmond, and Janelle Saffin, in its marginal neighbour Page. The only known candidate for the latter is Kevin Hogan, who according to The Northern Star “runs his own finance business from his Clunes cattle farm”.
• Pat Farmer, the Liberal member for Macarthur, has as expected been soundly defeated for preselection by Russell Matheson, a police sergeant and former mayor of Campbelltown. The margin was 22 votes to nine.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports the Victorian ALP will follow the footsteps of the NSW Nationals by choosing a state election candidate through a US-style primary. Whereas the Nationals are still to decide which seat in which to conduct their experiment, Labor has earmarked the Liberal-held marginal of Kilsyth. The decision stems from a cross-factional committee report which also recommends reinvigorating the party organisation by slashing membership fees.
• VexNews reports that Louise Staley, who has previously sought federal preselection for Wannon and Menzies, is now hoping for a state berth in the country seat of Ripon, which Labor’s Joe Helper holds on a margin of 4.4 per cent. Staley is a former state party vice-president and Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert. Also said to have nominated are “John van Beveren, a local winery owner and education professor and Vic Dunn, the local inspector at Maryborough”.
• The Australian Review of Public Affairs has published my review article on Australia: The State of Democracy, written by Marian Sawer, Norman Abjorensen and Phil Larkin through the auspices of the Democratic Audit of Australia and published by The Federation Press.
Plenty happening in Tasmania:
• Labor’s troubled first-term member for Bass, Jodie Campbell, has confirmed she will not contest the next election. Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Senator Helen Polley, has been mentioned as a possible successor, which would see the seat’s factional alignment transfer from Left to Right. The Liberals have preselected Steve Titmus, a former television news reader and PR consultant for Gunns Ltd. The winner will be the seat’s sixth member in less than two decades. UPDATE: The Launceston Examiner reports that the new candidate is likely to be determined by prime ministerial fiat “after the dust settles”, and that there is a second potential candidate in Winnaleah District High School principal Brian Wightman, who is currently pencilled in as one of six candidates for the Bass state election ticket.
• Terry Martin, independent member for the northern Hobart upper house division of Elwick, faces criminal charges which regardless of their merits are politically lethal by nature. Martin was elected as a Labor member in 2004, but was expelled by the party in March 2007 after crossing the floor to vote against the government’s fast-tracking of the proposed Tamar Valley pulp mill. He is due to face re-election at the next round of periodical elections in May; a by-election need not be held if the seat is vacated after January 1.
• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports the Liberals have finalised their state election ticket for Denison, adding “renewable energy lawyer Matthew Groom, businesswoman and former Miss Tasmania Sue Hickey, and high-profile school parents advocate and Glenorchy councillor Jenny Branch” to the already announced Michael Hodgman (the sole incumbent), Elise Archer and Matt Stevenson.
• Tasmanian government legislation for fixed terms has been referred to a committee, scuppering any chance of it being passed in the week remaining before a recess that will last until the election. Premier David Bartlett nonetheless swears that the election will be held on March 20, again locking the psephological community into the headache of simultaneous elections in South Australia and Tasmania.
Elsewhere on the site, note that it’s all happening on the Willagee by-election thread, while things are ticking over more slowly yet still surely on the Bradfield and Higgins threads. Observe also the New South Wales Newspoll post immediately below.
Frank, Scorpio,
thanks guys, that’s really thoughtful of you….that cosy little chat with Fran is cheering me up no end
[I am sure that many of us here would love you to share some of those provoked thoughts with us sometime, Bob!]
Care to comment on Keane’s observations, or just snipe?
GB
I really doubt the polls will change significantly.
Does anyone think Newspoll will drop below the Ruddslide 55-45 fortress that has been impregnable for 2 years?
For the record I don’t.
[Care to comment on Keane’s observations, or just snipe?]
I’ve commented on them bob. Now what are your thoughts on them? Or are we to assume you agree with everything Bernard says because you linked him?
203 – I agree with you Dio. I don’t hear the passion out there that Laurie Oakes obviously thinks he is hearing.
Hang on a bit, young Glen, you give me case and evidence of the Victorian government being incompetent. I’ll give you Mr. Doyle, previous Opposition Leader as current Mayor of Melbourne and Chair of Melbourne Health. Mr. Kennett appointed to the Chair of BeyondBlue by Steve Bracks. It’s a reasonable approach to involve people with experience in governement, even when there is a change of government.
I’d be very surprised to see the Victorian government threatened in any serious way.
[On the formation of a conservative/ultra right wing party. No thanks we already have the Nats.]
That’s a bit unfair. The Nats are the biggest bunch of socialists in the country. There is no other group that demands handouts from the public purse more than the National party.
glen
you hang in there buddy.
😉
GB
The thing that would really suck if Newspoll dropped below 55-45 would be the Libs thinking they were coming back, getting all boisterous and being more likely to block the CPRS.
Speaking of Crikey and Drivel, this take from the wonderful The Worst of Perth Twitter Feed. 🙂
[theworstofperth
@crikey_news Crikey’s Guy Rundle on “Why my mouse scroll wheel squeaks.” Tomorrow, Rundle talks us through the lint filter on his dryer.about 11 hours ago from web :-)]
[Rudd’s behaviour is suggestive of a man who isn’t confident of his own policy.
Eventually that lack of confidence might do more to undermine it than any number of boats.]
What a load of “tripe”. Where have you been for the past two or three years, Bernard?
Kevin Rudd has been playing the Opposition like a finely tuned Stradivarius and has driven them so far backwards on every issue that they have relied upon for so many years, that in some issues they have gone round so far they have come back to meet themselves.
Classic example, economic management. Must be a while now since we heard any Coalition claims of “superior economic management”!
On the asylum seeker issue, Bernard (& Bob), Turnbull have been blind-sided so badly by Rudd that they are now reduced to suggestions of discredited Howard era policies and vague suggestions of “at some future date”, once in Government of coming up with a policy to resolve the asylum seeker issue.
Yeah, right, Bernard. Rudd’s confidence is so shattered that in a short while, Rudd will be so in command of this issue (ably assisted by Turnbull) that the Coalition will be very reluctant to even mention it again.
The dog whistle is going to get jammed right down Turnbull’s throat!!!
HSO most governments are past their used by dates after 12 years without significant renewal and Brumby’s is no exception.
But an incompetent Victorian government is one thing. Replacing it with an incompetent Opposition is another which wont happen any time soon.
Governments lose government, oppositions don’t win it. The Vic government has not been perfect but it by far better than anything the Libs have to offer. Brumby realised sometime back the issues that could harm his government and is well into the process of addressing them. Ted has along way to go.
Ted will never be Premier. No Liberal currently in Spring Street will be either I reckon.
[Governments lose government, oppositions don’t win it. The Vic government has not been perfect but it by far better than anything the Libs have to offer. Brumby realised sometime back the issues that could harm his government and is well into the process of addressing them. Ted has along way to go.]
Exhibit A: Carpenter Govt in WA, as much as it pains me to type this.
Any idea who the special guest on Insiders is tomorrow?
209 – What a trap it would be for the Libs Dio. Rudd would get his DD trigger and the Libs would have to have policies for the election, policies that would reflect the Howard years it seems. What a mistake that would be.
Glen! The Victorian Liberals problem is that 9-12 months ago when the Brumby Government looked shaky, it did not panic instead it focused on fixing the problems and for the most part they have acheived this.
The Liberals are a poor alternative in Victoria, the Liberals seem lazy and egar to wait for the Government to do something wrong and when the Government has made a mistake quite often the Greens have been more active in response than the Liberals.
Yes, Green supporters do take a bow! for you are our performing the Liberals.
[pack them up, bring them to Christmas island and process them]
That would be illegal. These people have not entered Australian waters, so we have no right to detain them or take them to a detention centre, which is what Xmas Id is. Detaining people on the high seas is piracy. The only thing we have the right to do with people rescued in international waters is take them to a safe haven, which is what we have done.
215 – The big difference Frank is that Labor has become the default government in Vic having ruled for all but 7 of the last 26 years. In WA the Libs seem to be the default party of government.
Glen, don’t agree with you on this. One of the things that has been a feature of the gov’t in Victoria has been a willingness to engage people from other parts of the political spectrum to run stuff.
[215 – The big difference Frank is that Labor has become the default government in Vic having ruled for all but 7 of the last 26 years. In WA the Libs seem to be the default party of government.]
That I agree with, all thanks to the hugely popular Sir David Brand who did a Menzies right through the late 50’s and 60’s. pity The Court Dynasty had to stuff it up for them.
Bob1234, does Keane give anything thought provoking about the alternatives Sharman Stone/Julie Bishop/Malcolm Turnbull or should I just vote for them on the strength of what you copied here?
HSO
Exhibit A: Myki the State Government spent $1.3 billion, which was $350 million blowout whereas they could have adopted the system used in the UK (Oyster).
They are a joke and they are incompetent it’s just that the Vic Libs are just as bad.
Night all, and don’t bother with Passhendaele, unless you like a weepy interspersed with a bit of poorly executed body bits all over the set and no, and I mean no, coherent rationale for the battle. That’s so annoying. Does anyone know of any docos about Passhendaele
Glen! Interesting you mention Myki! Whilst i question if it will work on a full Tram but that has more to do with people overcrowding the doorways than Myki itself.
But if that can be overcome i actually think Myki will work out quite well.
[Care to comment on Keane’s observations, or just snipe?]
Not “snipe” at all Bob! Just an invitation to favour us with a little more than one-line shots such as this one.
I did comment on “one” comment of Keane’s at 211 which I thought sufficient and allowed for others to make comment on the rest of Bernard’s piece which I consider of low grade and up to Bernard’s usual standard. ie Extremely low grade!
Cheers, Scorpio 😉
O.K. last thingy, Glen. agree the public transport ticketing is nuts, but if you’re sick, really sick, see us if you want to survive (mostly).
The Vic Libs are the last people to talk about the state of Melbourne’s public transport. I still curse Jeff Kennett every time I get on a tram and have to deal with those stupid machines.
Not for much longer 😉
[the Libs would have to have policies for the election]
You are a man of little faith, Gary!
The Libs “have” policies. They just don’t want to release them in case Labor “steals” them.
It must be true, because I have heard a number of them say that! 😉
[The Vic Libs are the last people to talk about the state of Melbourne’s public transport. I still curse Jeff Kennett every time I get on a tram and have to deal with those stupid machines.]
And the WA Libs unbder Sir Charles Court made their biggest stuff up ever by closing the Perth to Fremantle Railway Line – only to be reopened in 1983 by one Brian Burke – see he was good for something 🙂
Oh my dog! Bolt the doors, shutter the windows, batten down the hatches and lock up your daughters!
[Climate Change sceptic Alby Schulz has described the theory of global warming as a “perverted science” that may plunge Australia into a new Dark Age, comparing the ideology to the rise of Nazism.
In a speech to Parliament on an emissions trading scheme yesterday, Mr Schulz noted it was Sir Winston Churchill who warned of the perverted science of national socialist ideology when he declared:
“… the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science.
“That is just as applicable today to the perverted science of global warming,’’ Mr Schulz told Parliament. ]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/samanthamaiden/index.php/theaustralian/comments/climate_change_perverted_science_says_alby_schulz/
[…but the subtext (of Megalogenis’ article) seemed to be suggesting that the longer Labor stayed in power, the more disastrous it would be for the country. What do you think?]
Funny, I got that impression too.
On asylum seekers: Rudd should just stay put and wait the hijackers out. The voters will be behind him on this. They realise there’s nothing he can do short of sending in the SAS, and that ain’t gonna happen. The see Rudd as a PM willing to ameliorate the conditions we settle on refugee seekers and getting a very ungrateful kick in the guts for it fro a small group of them. I would say little or no change in Newspoll.
After all, what is the alternative? The hijackers are not our immigration responsibility, we can’t hijack them in turn. We have done our bit, and it is they who have been found to be the ungrateful ones in all this.
Bernard Keene is right. Kevin Rudd has to be absolutely terrified, facing an opposition with such profound wisdom and insight such as this! His confidence must have been completely “shattered” when Alby came out with this.
I listened to many of the other Coalition submissions on climate change and so many of them were so “over the top” and wide of the mark as well as being blatantly untrue, that I had to cross over to the Senate which was almost as bad but on other issues!
I can’t see this issue ending anywhere other than with a DD late in 2010!
Turnbull must be wondering what he did in a previous life to deserve being saddled with such a pack of fools as Schulz, Tuckey, B Bishop, Boswell, Joyce and Heffernan.
I’ll agree with Bernard Keane on one thing: Stephen Smith is a damn fine foreign minister, a vast improvement on Dolly Downer.
[Turnbull must be wondering what he did in a previous life to deserve being saddled with such a pack of fools as Schulz, Tuckey, B Bishop, Boswell, Joyce and Heffernan.]
Turnball is relying on those dinosaurs to keep him in the leadership – I don’t feel any sympathy for the man, he’s junking all of his moderate principles!
There’s no way Turnball can get the Liberal partyroom to accept an ETS, even an amended one negotiated with the government. So he’ll come out with the “Wait until after Copenhagen” excuse, and then Rudd has his DD trigger(but I bet we don’t go to a DD until August/September next year).
I’m inclined to agree with Antony that it would be difficult to argue that not passing the CPRS in the next two weeks constitutes “failure to pass.” I think Rudd will wait until the February sittings to push it to a vote, or a refusal to vote. Then Turnbull will have to either back down or give Rudd a trigger for a July-August election. Not having the bill through before Copenhagen is a pity, but it’s not going to make much material difference.
[THE $1600 home insulation rebate scheme will be slashed by $400 today in a sudden move set to rock the Federal Government’s troubled economic stimulus program.]
This from TPD. “rock”, “troubled”. Yeah, sure Glenn.
Apparently the industry sees the end of the world coming because of this move.
Ooops, link to 241.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26287440-952,00.html
Anna Bligh is heading toward oblivion according to Galaxy. The Sunday CM just loves those polls. I wonder if they would be as in love with them if Anna was still popular.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26287688-952,00.html
Oh dear, the asylum seekers on the OV have just lost a lot more support.
[Most of the Sri Lankan asylum seekers in a stand-off with Australian authorities off the coast of the Riau Islands have admitted living in Indonesia for years.]
[In written messages thrown off the Oceanic Viking, the Australian customs ship that has been home to the 78 ethnic Tamils for the past two weeks, the asylum seekers said they had been living in Indonesia for as long as five years and had been accepted by the United Nations office in Jakarta as genuine refugees.
They said they engaged a people smuggler because of their frustrations that no country would accept them, leaving them to sit in limbo in rented accommodation in Indonesia, unable to work or study.]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/sri-lankans-admit-living-in-indonesia-20091031-hqtm.html
No wonder they don’t want to go ashore, they’d be going back to where they came from.
[Most of the Sri Lankan asylum seekers in a stand-off with Australian authorities off the coast of the Riau Islands have admitted living in Indonesia for years.]
And what did I say about the unlikelihood of people sailing across 4000km of ocean directly to Australia? I will come back in the morning for Diogenes’s apology.
[Most of the Sri Lankan asylum seekers in a stand-off with Australian authorities off the coast of the Riau Islands have admitted living in Indonesia for years.]
Good find, Gary. There is likely to be a few red faces around the traps with this revelation! Especially on PB!
[THE $1600 home insulation rebate scheme will be slashed by $400 today in a sudden move set to rock the Federal Government’s troubled economic stimulus program.]
slashed
sudden
rock
troubled
You would think the reduction of a gift from 1600 to 1200 for people interested in insulation would have justified a ‘brutally’ and ‘heavily’.
The Milne is getting a bit lazy in taking out the trash.
[Good find, Gary. There is likely to be a few red faces around the traps with this revelation! Especially on PB!]
And for St Bob and the Meeja who fell for their bovine manure 🙂
Always good to deal with the facts of the matter.