The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan face-to-face survey finds Labor maintaining the remarkable upward trend it has recorded across recent polling: its primary vote is up 2.5 per cent to 52 per cent, the Coalition’s is up 0.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent, while the Greens, Family First and independent/others are all down. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead has edged up from 60-40 to 60.5-39.5. The pattern is further demonstrated by the latest Reuters Poll Trend aggregate, which finds Labor’s two-party lead has crept steadily upwards since June, and has now increased to 59.0-41.0 from 58.0-42.0 a month ago. George Megalogenis of The Australian offers an exquisitely simple hypothesis: “the women swing first, then the men”. This was apparently the pattern when the current governments in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia were elected (I suggest One Nation complicated the picture in Queensland and Western Australia), and it gives every appearance of playing out at present federally. However, there is the curious exception of men under 35, many of whom seem to have abandoned Labor since the onset of the financial crisis.
Other news:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Julia Gillard is “working behind the scenes” to save the career of Laurie Ferguson, a fellow member of the “soft Left” faction who backed the Rudd/Gillard coup against Kim Beazley in December 2006. Ferguson has been left high-and-dry by the effective abolition of his western Sydney seat of Reid, the redrawn seat of that name being the effective successor to its abolished neighbour Lowe. However, Ferguson’s efforts to find a new home are being resisted by the “hard Left” faction of Anthony Albanese. Coorey reports Ferguson believes he has the numbers to win a local preselection vote in Fowler, to be vacated with the retirement of Julia Irwin, but it seems at least as likely that this and other contentious seats will be filled by the decree of Kevin Rudd and the panel of factional leaders which was empowered to make final determinations through a recent change to the party constitution. VexNews intimates that if denied, Ferguson might look at “obtaining support for a potentially expensive and spectacular legal challenge”.
• Paul Sheehan of the Sydney Morning Herald had an interesting piece last week on the Liberal preselection for Cook ahead of the last federal election, which saw the dumping of the initially victorious Michael Towke and his eventual substitution with Scott Morrison. Towke’s Right faction lost the PR battle at the time (as my own electorate profile attests), but as Sheehan tells it, talk that Towke had fudged his CV had little or no foundation in fact. Rather, he was a victim of “a view among some senior Liberals” – evidently including John Howard – that “a Lebanese Australian could not win Cook in a tight election”. It will be recalled that the expanse of southern Sydney covered by the electorate includes Cronulla. Sheehan also relates that the Daily Telegraph’s reporting of Towke’s preselection led to a defamation action which was settled out-of-court with a payment of $50,000.
• Peter Caton of the Tweed Daily News reports the Nationals are struggling to find candidates to run against Labor incumbents Justine Elliot, in the one-time party stronghold of Richmond, and Janelle Saffin, in its marginal neighbour Page. The only known candidate for the latter is Kevin Hogan, who according to The Northern Star “runs his own finance business from his Clunes cattle farm”.
• Pat Farmer, the Liberal member for Macarthur, has as expected been soundly defeated for preselection by Russell Matheson, a police sergeant and former mayor of Campbelltown. The margin was 22 votes to nine.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports the Victorian ALP will follow the footsteps of the NSW Nationals by choosing a state election candidate through a US-style primary. Whereas the Nationals are still to decide which seat in which to conduct their experiment, Labor has earmarked the Liberal-held marginal of Kilsyth. The decision stems from a cross-factional committee report which also recommends reinvigorating the party organisation by slashing membership fees.
• VexNews reports that Louise Staley, who has previously sought federal preselection for Wannon and Menzies, is now hoping for a state berth in the country seat of Ripon, which Labor’s Joe Helper holds on a margin of 4.4 per cent. Staley is a former state party vice-president and Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert. Also said to have nominated are “John van Beveren, a local winery owner and education professor and Vic Dunn, the local inspector at Maryborough”.
• The Australian Review of Public Affairs has published my review article on Australia: The State of Democracy, written by Marian Sawer, Norman Abjorensen and Phil Larkin through the auspices of the Democratic Audit of Australia and published by The Federation Press.
Plenty happening in Tasmania:
• Labor’s troubled first-term member for Bass, Jodie Campbell, has confirmed she will not contest the next election. Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Senator Helen Polley, has been mentioned as a possible successor, which would see the seat’s factional alignment transfer from Left to Right. The Liberals have preselected Steve Titmus, a former television news reader and PR consultant for Gunns Ltd. The winner will be the seat’s sixth member in less than two decades. UPDATE: The Launceston Examiner reports that the new candidate is likely to be determined by prime ministerial fiat “after the dust settles”, and that there is a second potential candidate in Winnaleah District High School principal Brian Wightman, who is currently pencilled in as one of six candidates for the Bass state election ticket.
• Terry Martin, independent member for the northern Hobart upper house division of Elwick, faces criminal charges which regardless of their merits are politically lethal by nature. Martin was elected as a Labor member in 2004, but was expelled by the party in March 2007 after crossing the floor to vote against the government’s fast-tracking of the proposed Tamar Valley pulp mill. He is due to face re-election at the next round of periodical elections in May; a by-election need not be held if the seat is vacated after January 1.
• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports the Liberals have finalised their state election ticket for Denison, adding “renewable energy lawyer Matthew Groom, businesswoman and former Miss Tasmania Sue Hickey, and high-profile school parents advocate and Glenorchy councillor Jenny Branch” to the already announced Michael Hodgman (the sole incumbent), Elise Archer and Matt Stevenson.
• Tasmanian government legislation for fixed terms has been referred to a committee, scuppering any chance of it being passed in the week remaining before a recess that will last until the election. Premier David Bartlett nonetheless swears that the election will be held on March 20, again locking the psephological community into the headache of simultaneous elections in South Australia and Tasmania.
Elsewhere on the site, note that it’s all happening on the Willagee by-election thread, while things are ticking over more slowly yet still surely on the Bradfield and Higgins threads. Observe also the New South Wales Newspoll post immediately below.
I just love applying these figures to to AG’s HOR caclulator, 5 Nats and 19 Libs with the mad monk the only choice left for the fibs. Do the nats become deregistered as a party on these figs?? . I can still dream can’t I.
Looks like a clear majority are deaf to the border protection dog-whistle. The trend seems overwhelming. It is hard to imagine that the coalition would want to hand Rudd any DD trigger, even for later use in August 2010.
The Liberal’s non-pre-selection of Towke suggests they are getting narrower at a time when they need to broaden their appeal. They badly need new blood. Rudd could be PM for most of the next decade.
There is a story about a coalition split in the Fairfax media:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/coalition-could-split-by-end-of-the-year-20091030-hnzg.html
I don’t see how this will save the Nats. They area rebranding themselves to the right of the Libs.
From the previous thread.
Do tell as she was pinned up behind the PM at QT:
Is Peter Hartcher trying to teach us how to suck egg? So how is Rudd any different from any other PMs in Australian political history. And he is being criticised for that? Maybe because Rudd has had the longest “honeymoon”.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/captain-rudds-preferred-course–a-little-to-the-right-20091030-hppk.html
Hartcher’s analysis is also a little simplistic on the maths side. As some of Poss’s analysis has shown, the basis of the Lib’s “rusted on” 40% is shrinking (dying off/being outnumbered by new voters) over time. Thus over time the Libs will go backwards from here if they fail to attract new voters. Conversely Rudd simply has to avoid offending the left and at least 50% of the centre and his position will gradually improve.
The Libs are too focused on hanging onto the right for survival. But in the long term that isn’t enough – they need ot change the current landscape adn attact a new generation of conservative voters. But they don’t have any idea what might be the fresh policy ideas to do that.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26283948-601,00.html
Who are you going to believe Fran Bailey or Malcolm Turnbull? This is the beginning of a nasty he said/she said and before long the bar stools will be flying and bottles will be dashed on top of the bar.
Ian McLachlan may have a note on the offer somewhere in his back pocket.
Can’t see anything strange about the alleged offer to Fran Bailey, it makes political sense (oh, hang on…therefore MT wouldn’t have done it….)
Fran holds her seat, albeit by a small margin, but most pundits expected her to hang on due to her response to the fires and her longevity.
Whereas Peter’s seat has been redistributed against him, and he lost the preselection for where ever it was, so he’s a more risky proposition.
So, if you’re looking at either losing two seats or losing one, it makes sense to try and save one at the expense of the other.
The only question is why Fran is silly enough to make public a conversation she says she regarded as private, and any pollie worth their salt would never reveal.
One wonders how many of these outgoing Libs are going to say things to damage their party on the way out??
BTW, reading articles like Laurie Oakes’, based on anonymous Labor sources, talkback radio (always such a guide to mainstream thinking) and anecdotal evidence, I can’t help thinking what fun it would be to be a ‘Labor insider’ in Canberra at present.
Get Oakes or Milne or Kerr or Shanahananahan aside, do a bit of wink wink, nudge nudge, omg we’re all doomed, gee isn’t Malcolm a cunning political operator (no, that might be a bridge too far) and next minute, it’s dished up in the national media as unassailable truth.
The three articles this morning (by Hartcher, Oakes and Crabbe) all seem touched by the same bewitched, bothered and bewildered prose about Rudd’s continuing popularity despite him allegedly lacking requisite character or leadership skills.
I sense our doyens of traditional journalism are frustrated that Rudd sails on apparently impervious to their predictable barbs of disaster which never seem to come true. It’s like those economists that have predicted ten of the last three recessions.
Clearly, Rudd is some sort of post modernist politician phenomenon who has not only risen to power without the MSM seal of approval, but actively does not crave or need their approval to stay there.
Howard used talk back radio to communicate his message when confronted by a hostile media. Rudd seems skilled at communicating through the ever changing new media channels. The simple message appears to be, “He knows where he is going and he knows how to get there”.
entre nous – cracker of a story
I think this is the point, not why Fran Bailey made the comment. Goes to the heart of a major credibility issue for Turnbull; it might be “technically” not an untruth, but doesnot pass the public opinion smell test.
I wonder whether an electoral advertising them is going to be a simple “who are you going to believe?”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26283948-601,00.html
GG, that is why “honeymoon” is the only and last straw that they can hang on to. Because it implies …… erh ……. it implies nothing really except it makes them look credible in their commentary, they hope.
Fast forward to mid 2015 when Fred Rudd hands over to Ginger Gillard, he will still be tapping with his “honeymoon” shoes at 65% approval. He will have written the longest consummated honeymoon note in political history.
I have only browsed over a couple of Dennis atkins articles in the past but if I thought they were all pro Liberal?
What’s going on here then?
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26269440-953,00.html
Also notice the OO’s scary Labor story for weekend is that labor is expanding the detention centre on CI to take over 2000 shock horror!
Dunno what’s wrong with them, think of all that stimulating and providing of new jobs for the locals. Long term and short term projects they say, CI will be booming 😉
With all of the goodwill the Fran Bailey has received as a result of her public statements concerning the bushfire tragedy which received national attention then there’s no doubt she’ll win the honesty test against Fake Email Turnbull any day of the week.
I said the other day that Rudd is the smartest Australian political leader I have ever seen. I now believe that Turnbull is just about the dumbest Australian politician leader I have ever seen. To me it’s a toss up between Turnbull and Billy McMahon.
And guess what their ABC’s main story accompanied by photo is?
Quoting the OO main story of course!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
Well, a honeymoon is a short-lived thing, where sensuality, dinners at romantic restaurants, beaches in exotic places and puppy love take precedence over more mundane things like forgetting to take out garbage, using the toilet spray after a big smelly and scrimping to pay the mortgage rule the roost. In other words suspension of disbelief opposed to mundane reality.
One would have thought that the GFC was a very large dose of mundane reality and that Rudd has passed any test on this subject long, long ago. On asylum seekers the policy has been to get rid of the Nauru guano pits as immigrant holding centers and to offer prompt assessment of refugees’ claims, but only for those who make it here in the physical sense (i.e. they arrive on Australian territory), rather than the notional sense . A group of refugees were saved from drowning by what happened to be an Australian-flagged ship, and then showed their gratitude by hijacking it, demanding to be taken to their port of personal choice or violence would ensue. No government, or nation can condone that behaviour. Rudd has been handed a victory out of nowhere because most people would agree with him that antics like taking a rescue ship by force negate any sympathy your Average Joe might have felt for the refugees’ plight.
The house has been saved, the garbage has been taken out and if a little Glen-20 has been sprayed in the bathroom from time to time to sanitize a malodorous waft, then that’s OK too. It’s better than the alternative.
In short, Rudd and his adoring spouse, the Australian voter, have settled in for the long haul. The old boyfriend, lurking in the shadows, sending mad notes whimpering “I told you so,” trying to convince the ex-girlfriend to leave nerdy new hubby, has missed the boat. Their affair was fun while it lasted, but the lady’s with someone else now, so piss off Malcolm (and your mates too). If the old fun crew don’t get the message that she’s serious about the new guy, then the next reply to the lurker’s pleadings will have to be uncomfortably blunt. And please don’t kill the cat. She’ll start actively disliking you if you do that. It wasn’t the cat that turned her off you.
There it is in a nutshell. It’s not a honeymoon any longer. That’s an outdated word to describe what’s happened in Australian politics over the past three years. Rudd and the voters are a young married couple now, with a maturing relationship, and they’re going to see where it takes them.
Tom Hawkins
With an honourable mention to “every mother loves her baby” Nelson and “Dolly” Downer!
Dolly would win hands (and fishnet stockings) down.
😉
Vera,
It’s just a coincidence that ABC On-line and other organs of Aunty have extraordinary close links to The Australian since JA became a Director of the ABC! 🙂
scorpio
They are desperate to keep the whistling about us being overrun by the Asian hoards going for as long as they can.
Well at least over this weekend when Newspoll is being done 😉
I think turnbull has “jumped the shark” with this latest MALfeasance.
Beside alienating the voters with his behaviour,he has now set course to alienate his own party.As his stuffups and attempted hits on the government continue he is more and more going to be seen as a bull in a china shop.
Dario
I think your comment is right about the ship being Australian territory, not for migration purposes but legally.
The Indonesians have repeatedly said that it would be illegal (one used the word torture) for the refugees to be forced off (I suppose force may be up to interpretation).
Psephos
You just may be right that Article 33 doesn’t apply but there would have to be some international law about returning people claiming asylum to the country they are fleeing. I’ll look for it. The idea of doing that is abhorrent.
Vera,
I don’t know whether or not you noticed but the Commercial TV News and Current affairs has given it scant treatment in recent days.
I think their Directors decided that their viewers in general, couldn’t give a “rats” about it and that their best interests were served in concentrating on their “infomertials” and plugging real estate and products that most people really don’t need as well as the odd suburban scandal and the previous day’s crime reports!
Surprisingly, Kevin Foley now comes out as having had depression recently which almost led to him quitting. He even says it affected his work which is unusually candid.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26284312-5006301,00.html
Scorpio
I noticed that, the AS story was only rating a passing mention halfway through the Commercial TV news all through last week.
Apart from that 9 ‘exclusive’ last night.
On that , aren’t 9 interferring there, taking notes from AS and promising to make their plight known? Surely such stunts would make the AS think 9 are helping them to get to Australia and thus all 9 is doing is working against the govt encouraging the AS to stay put on the OV?
Whatever else people might think about Peter Hartcher’s article, one thing he has been spot-on with is the mindset and disarray within the Coalition.
Classic examples of that “seething, restless, aimless anger expressing itself in reactivity, indisipline & opposing for the sake of opposing were Tony Abbott on Lateline and QANDA this week and Scott Morrison last night.
But really, there is no one that you could leave out, Turnbull, Bishop, Stone, Minchin, the list goes on right through the ranks.
It really shows up dramatically in Question Time where the anger is palpable and in full public view not only to the gallery, but to the Press Gallery, of which, many members, were so enamoured of the Coalition’s performance when they had a friendly Speaker and were able to dictate the proceedings of both Parliament and QT.
They have been desperately trying to shine a kindly light on this state of affairs, but gradually I think that the frustration of trying to continually spray deodorant over this smelly corpse is taking its toll!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/captain-rudds-preferred-course–a-little-to-the-right-20091030-hppk.html
About the perceived bias of ABC. I still remember that during the Howard Era how impressed I was with ABC’s impartialty and willingness to challenge the Liberal government. JA and Co. were not appointed recently and there is no credible evidence whatsoever that they are affecting the editorial standard of ABC. Most of the journalists that were around then are still here now. Surely they don’t all sudenly have a change of heart?
For those who go and search for signs of bias there will always be something there. However, to base one’s perception of bias over ABC quoting The Australian is not at all convincing.
I can only see two reasons why he’s done this (quite possibly it’s all the one reason)…
1. SA Labor wants to take attention away from other current media stories.
2. SA Labor and/or Foley realises Rann isn’t invincible and as such need to start introducing Foley to the people in preparation for a smooth leadership transition.
God I hope Foley never becomes SA Labor leader.
This shows the difference between Labor and the Coalition. Rudd taking a leading role while the rabble cant even decide on whether to support and ETS or to deny CC all together.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/labor-threatens-climate-walkout-20091030-hpqv.html
Vera,
My take on it, (for what it is worth) is that 7 and 9 in particular are working to another agenda than much of the rest of the media with WIN TV working to a separate agenda again.
Their aim is to put the Government under pressure to achieve more favourable outcomes in regards up-coming Digital spectrum and Broadcasting arrangements in which the ABC is expected to get more favourable treatment than them.
They are indirectly saying, that if you treat us kindly, then we will treat you kindly back.
I don’t think there is the same sort of focus on “support for the Coalition” that we see with the other media and that must start to wain due to the utter futility of the endeavour as demonstrated by the polls for so long.
Vera,
Any comparison between Rudd, Smith and Howard, Downer in relation to representing Australia in the International arena is like daylight to night time, white to black. Very similar to what Obama is doing in repairing the US international relationship with so many countries alienated by the Bush Administration.
Howard/Downer didn’t do anywhere near as much damage to Australia’s relationship with the rest of the world, but they were very, very, poor in their representation. Rudd and Smith, by contrast, have been very proficient in diplomacy and improving Australia’s relationship with the rest of the world not just the US and GB!
I think he is great, he is a politician who speaks his mind.
He’s a highly inferior version of Paul Keating.
LOL! Yeah, because Greens like you were big supporters of privatising the Commonwealth Bank, QANTAS, and cutting tariffs and income taxes.
You only like Paul Keating in theory, you don’t actually like his economic policies.
SO
I don’t mind Foley. I actually prefer him to Rann, although he is a boofhead. He has an enormous amount of baggage in his personal life though, as he says, and if he can sort himself out I think he could be a good Premier.
If we’re playing stereotypical supporters, you’re also a socialist.
But no, i’m not a stereotypical supporter, and I doubt you are. I don’t vote for the Greens for their economic policies. I vote for the electorally viable left-leaning third party because both major parties are socially and morally conservative.
Spot on. Yet Keating was too arrogant to heed his advisers’ warnings that ripping Dolly Downer to shreds in Parliament every session would only result in a stronger Lib Leader. Hubris cometh before the Fall.
They replayed Howard’s interview on Hardtalk today on ABC News Radio.
A Howard type character would fit comfortably alongside Gollum in the Lord of Rings.
Thank God for Rudd’s total demolition of Howard and his subsequent mincing of the leftovers known as the Liberal Party.
Scorpio,
There also seems to be a lot of world leaders or high ranking officials coming to see Rudd lately as well
‘Macedonian PM last week
Bulgaria and China this week
http://www.smh.com.au/national/china-seeks-closer-ties-with-canberra-20091030-hpr6.html
http://www.sofiaecho.com/2009/10/30/807724_bulgarian-president-purvanov-holds-talks-with-australian-prime-minister-kevin-rudd
Gusface said:
Bewdy expression there, Gus, from the infamous “Happy Days” episode, I presume?
Turnbull never had a chance given the continual display of recalcitrance within his party. Maybe in Turnbull’s mind he thinks he can morph to be like them until one day, when he is PM, he can put his own less extreme line into play. It wouldn’t work, they would still vote against him.
Lets just say, the circumstantial evidence overwhelmingly points to more than a strong possibility that the ABC for some time, has favoured the Opposition in their reporting, especially ABC On-line!
ABC On-line regularly presents articles which base most of their content on material from The Australian and other News Ltd sources.
The “so-called” National Newspaper, content leans heavily towards supporting the Liberal Party and daily publishes material intended to damage the public standing of Kevin Rudd and the Labor Government.
The Editor in Chief of that newspaper has publically admitted that the editorial direction of the publication is exactly along those lines. As has been mentioned by a number of people, incldsing Rudd himself, that is their prerogative and we have to live with that reality.
Janet Albrechtsen, according to her promo is as follows;
Herself, long with a General Manager and a Board of Directors, was appointed by John Howard, the Prime Minister of a Liberal led Government.
In virtually every piece presented on the ABC whether ABC On-line, AM, PM and other agencies, the Coalition and their opinion, stance, policy, leads the presentation with the body of it commonly using News Ltd sources for added substance to the tenant being presented.
To project their requirement of “balance” in their piece, they add a small countervailing attribute from an ALP source, usually not even a “direct” one!
It would have to stretch credibility to a somewhat unbelievable level, to think that with these things combined, that there is not a degree of favouritism demonstrated in the ABC presentations towards the Liberal Party and against the ALP!
What was that you implied again? Not at all convincing!!! Come on now, you are pulling my leg, aren’t you?
Robot @ 26
I’ve not seen a PB post that makes a blanket accusation of ABC bias, rather specific criticisms of certain programs.
Case in point: Rarely does ABC Sunday “Insiders” not have 2 of its 3 guest journos from Murdoch newspapers. I’ve heard more of Czar Murdoch’s right-wing views from Piers Ackers, Milne, Bolt etc. on that ABC program over the years than I have watching his own Skynews channel!
I have.
You could start with all the references to “their ABC”.
Vera,
I wonder if Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop gets to have much access to these visitors. I bet they are positively seething at Rudd doing an “Obama” and becoming a recognised and respected figure on the world stage.
Howard tried hard but was I think, treated more in a courtesy and derisory fashion by most world leaders except Bush who saw him as being a more than useful fool to take advantage of!
Scorpio, the ole deputy dorg of the pacific title Kev won’t mind doing without 😉
Scorpio @ 41
Thanks for that illuminating analysis of ABC organisation. My observations are restricted to what I see on tube and the ABC classical music station.
The lack of professionalism displayed on the ABC’s weekday morning show is appalling from Trioli right through to the weather person, but I haven’t noticed a significant level of anti-Rudd government bias
He was referring to the American Broadcasting Company which I have found of late to be fairly neutral on Australian politics.
I have heard rumours however that FoxNews content is putting The Onion out of business.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/30/jon-stewart-takes-on-war_n_339788.html
Dyno, In all honesty, I have no idea what that means, so would appreciate your explaining your point explicitly. Cheers!
However The Onion not to be out done by FoxNews has scooped them on this one.
http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/obamas_declaration_of_swine
For all those advocating that the Tamil Sri Lankans ought to be returned to Sri Lanka I suggest that you read this article.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/contributors/tamils-horrific-treatment-makes-them-desperate-to-leave-20091030-ho18.html