Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 55-45, down from 57-43 at the previous two polls. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 44 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one point to 38 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is up four points to 30 per cent. More to follow. UPDATE: Graphic here. Turnbull’s approval is the only leadership measure that has moved noticeably.

The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 58-42. Also featured: support for an ETS-driven early election continues to fall; confidence in the economy continues to rise; there is no one widely held view on who should be our next US Ambassador; and two-thirds agree that “the Liberals are just not prepared at the moment to take on the difficult task of governing Australia”.

Also:

• The Gold Coast News reports that Peter Dutton faces “an ugly pre-election battle” if he wishes to move from notionally Labor Dickson to the safe Liberal Gold Coast seat of McPherson, to be vacated by the retirement of Margaret May. Rival candidates include federal divisional council chair Karen Andrews, a “close ally” of May; Dr Richard Stuckey, husband of Jann Stuckey, state front-bencher and member for the local seat of Currumbin; and Michael Hart, who unsuccessfully contested the state seat of Burleigh at the last two state elections.

• For the second election in a row, Dennis Jensen will represent the Liberals in their safe Perth seat of Tangney despite having lost the initial preselection vote. The West Australian reports that Jensen won a State Council vote over the initially successful candidate, Glenn Piggott, by no less a margin than 76 votes to five. This result was foreshadowed a month ago by a commenter on this site travelling under the name of Matt Brown’s Imaginary Friend (Matt Brown being the initial victor of the 2007 preselection), who wrote: “Council knows that if Jensen (is) dumped, the Libs’ chances of holding the marginals will dive because campaign funds will be so stretched, adverse publicity will have (a) ripple effect, and Tangney itself could be lost to Jensen if (he) stood as an independent, whether to him or even to the ALP if he did the obvious and swapped preferences with them”.

• Saturday’s Weekend Australian featured a post-redistribution proposal Mackerras pendulum, which you can see at Mumble. The accompanying article takes aim at the assertion of Peter van Onselen and others that the redistributions of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia collectively constitute a “Ruddymander”.

• Simon Benson of The Daily Telegraph reports that the tensions over the New South Wales Labor leadership could be coming to the boil:

With the various warring factions in the Labor party room unable to decide on who would be a replacement, Mr Rees was said to be considering acting before he gets chopped. Sources confirmed he was using threats of a reshuffle to axe “trouble-making” ministers, a veiled reference to Health Minister John Della Bosca, if sniping about his leadership continued. The internal malaise in the Government has become so bad that very few MPs believe the current situation can continue. Mr Rees is also reported to have told those closest to him that his position was untenable if the plotting against him could not be arrested. Another Labor source said Labor powerbrokers including national secretary Karl Bitar were considering tapping Mr Rees on the shoulder next week if they could convince Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt to take over. It is understood Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is also being drafted into the soap opera with sources claiming his Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese has directly lobbied Mr Rudd to support a move to install Ms Tebbutt, who is Mr Albanese’s wife.

John Della Bosca today added fuel to the fire by declaring it was “no state secret” that it was constitutionally possible for an upper house MP such as himself to be Premier. However, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports focus group research shows “many people still think (Rees) should be given time to make a go of the job”, and gives an insight into the public view of Della Bosca, Tebbutt and other sometimes-mentioned leadership prospects, Kristina Keneally, John Robertson and Frank Sartor.

• The ABC reports that the member for the Nationals member for the Victorian state seat of Murray Valley, Ken Jasper, will retire at the next election. Jasper is 71 years old and has held the seat since 1976. I must confess the seat does not loom large in my consciousness, but my election guide entry tells me the Nationals are “concerned at their ability to hold the seat without him”. Jasper nonetheless held the seat in 2006 with 50.9 per cent of the vote against the Liberal candidate’s 21.9 per cent.

• The Victorian Greens have preselected for the highly winnable state seat of Melbourne a barrister and former president of Liberty Victoria, Brian Walters, ahead of Moonee Valley councillor Rose Iser.

Lots more information on various Greens preselections from Ben Raue of The Tally Room:

• Raue appears to have the inside dope on the state upper house preselection in South Australia, declaring former Democrat and current state party convenor Tammy Jennings the “clear frontrunner” for the lucrative top spot (he earlier named SA Farmers Federation chief executive Carol Vincent, former convenor and unsuccessful 1997 lead candidate Paul Petit and unheralded Mark Andrew as the other candidates).

• Raue also names preselection candidates for the Queensland Senate: Larissa Waters (the 2007 candidate, who also ran for Mount Coot-tha at the March state election), “perennial candidates” Libby Connors and Jenny Stirling, and 2009 Sunnybank candidate Matthew Ryan-Sykes.

• Raue names Emma Henley and Peter Campbell as candidates for the Victorian upper house region of Eastern Metropolitan.

• In the Tasmanian state seat of Braddon, Paul O’Halloran has apparently been chosen to “lead the ticket”, to the extent that that means anything under Robson rotation. Braddon is the only one of the five divisions currently without a Greens member.

Antony Green corner:

• In comments on this site, Antony discusses the prospects of a Victorian redistribution before the next federal election:

A Victorian redistribution is due because the boundaries from the last redistribution were gazetted on 29 January 2003. A re-draw starts seven years later, the end of January 2010. A redistribution is not required in the last 12 months before the House expires. The current House first sat on 12 February 2008 so it expires 11 February 2011. This means there is an unfortunate two week gap that will force a redistribution. If the Victorian boundaries had been gazetted two weeks later in 2003, or if the Rudd government had re-called parliament in December 2007, the redistribution would be deferred. Unfortunately, the Electoral Act is very prescriptive on dates so it appears the redistribution will have to take place, unless the act is changed.

• Two posts on his blog relate to the slow decline of the Nationals, one directly, the other with reference to the relative decline of rural population.

• Also featured is a post comparing the current position of the state Labor government in New South Wales with that of the Unsworth government as it drifted to the abyss in 1988.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,352 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  3. SO

    [Live Japanese election results! (sadly in Japanese) ]

    Even by your standards, that has to be the most tragic thing I’ve read here. 😉

  4. [Shows On,

    It’s not all about you.]
    WOW! Fantastic reply, just make an ad hominem attack (which itself is a complete non sequitur) and pretend you’ve got an argument!

    Argument is so easy when you can rely on faith, you don’t need to back up any statements with evidence or logical reasoning.

  5. God is with the Japanese:

    [BREAKING NEWS – The Democratic Party of Japan appears certain to wrest power from the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party in Sunday’s House of Representatives election, according to Kyodo News exit polls. The main opposition party is forecast to secure more than 300 of the powerful chamber’s 480 seats in a landslide victory, they showed.]

    http://www.japantimes.co.jp/start.htm

  7. [Even by your standards, that has to be the most tragic thing I’ve read here]
    I have standards?

    The blue is the DPJ

    The red is the LDP

    The blue is winning.

  10. Shows On,

    Another direct hit on your ego. Bully for me!

    Life’s so much easier when you depend only on logic and reason. Everything’s one big maths problem. The answer just pops out at the end of the calculation.

  15. Is the Japanese civil service at all ready for this political rearrangement?

    How easy to control are they- will they stonewall any changes they don’t like?

  18. [Life’s so much easier when you depend only on logic and reason.
    Wrong. Who said life was meant to be easy?
    [Everything’s one big maths problem.
    Wrong. Surely you’re not stupid enough to believe this?
    [The answer just pops out at the end of the calculation.]
    Wrong. Who said life should have an overarching answer or meaning that humans don’t create for themselves?

    I do note that you’ve completely walked away from your belief that god is some sort of supernatural dictator that kills innocent people for unexplained reasons. I’m not surprised you’ve decided to shut up about that.

  19. [Did I read that right? Less than 500,000 people voted in the election?]
    Um, no that’s how many people were exit polled.

  21. [Life’s so much easier when you depend only on logic and reason.]
    Wrong. Who said life was meant to be easy?
    [Everything’s one big maths problem.]
    Wrong. Surely you’re not stupid enough to believe this?
    [The answer just pops out at the end of the calculation.]
    Wrong. Who said life should have an overarching answer or meaning that humans don’t create for themselves?

  22. Oh dear. It really was a terrorist-for-oil swap. Looks like England is “soft on terrorism”. Is there anything countries WON’T do for oil?

    [THE British government decided two years ago it was “in the overwhelming interests of the United Kingdom” to make the Lockerbie bomber eligible for return to Libya, The Sunday Times newspaper reported.

    Justice Secretary Jack Straw dropped his attempt to exclude Abdelbaset Ali Mohmet al-Megrahi from a prisoner transfer agreement with Libya because of “wider negotiations” with that country, it said, citing leaked letters.

    The newspaper said Straw’s decision came after discussions between Libya and BP over a massive oil exploration deal became bogged down. The oil deal was resolved soon afterwards. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26003489-12377,00.html

  25. Even if the new Government ultimately sucks, at least the Japanese have gotten in some practice of kicking out a bad government, sot hey at least will know they can do it again in the future.

  26. Diogenes,

    Yes. It had the stink of truth. I knew the release could never have happened without the central Govt’s acquiescence.

    And they would have needed a reason beyond “compassion”.

  27. [Having made a point, unlike you, I do not feel compelled to repeat it ad nauseum.]
    LOL! you’re weak as piss. Your whole argument is a non sequitur “it’s not about you!”, and “god doesn’t need reasons to kill innocent people, he just does it m’kay!”

    The fact they are reasonable answers to you says everything.

  28. [at least the Japanese have gotten in some practice of kicking out a bad government, sot hey at least will know they can do it again in the future.]

    Quite so. Ending the semi-feudal permanent reign of the LDP-bureaucrat-business complex is the main achievement here.

  29. Shows On,

    Reversion to personal abuse. A sure sign of someone who has lost the plot and lost the argument.

  31. K

    It explains why Gordon Brown has been mumbling inaudibly at his shoes more than usual recently. I’m not sure even Tony Blair would have been as despicably dishonest as Brown has been.

    When’s that UK election?

  33. [Reversion to personal abuse. A sure sign of someone who has lost the plot]
    LOL! Do you read what you write before posting?

    You accuse me of reverting to abuse, and then in the next sentence revert to abuse? You don’t see the contradiction in that?

    But of course it is easier for you to debate about debate rather than actually explaining why god kills thousands of people for no reason.

  34. [It explains why Gordon Brown has been mumbling inaudibly at his shoes more than usual recently. I’m not sure even Tony Blair would have been as despicably dishonest as Brown has been.]

    I agree, he should be forced to resign. I hope Milliband didn’t know about it, since he ought to be the next leader. Unfortunately I think the Tories would have done exactly the same thing.

  35. [Oh dear. It really was a terrorist-for-oil swap.]

    Surely this is potentially the sort of stuff that makes governments fall? Or am I missing something here?

  37. Diogenes,

    Brown may spend a few years (post-politics) justifying himself on this. Remember when he took over from Blair? The pundits said he didn’t have the pizzazz, but at least he wasn’t as mired in international bastardry as his predecessor.

    Now Gordon’s got the lot. Every possible negative. He makes Nathan Rees look chipper…

  39. [Unfortunately I think the Tories would have done exactly the same thing.]

    Possibly so, but unless the Tories knew about it and agreed with it (or agreed to keep quiet), none of the blame will attach to them.

    Based on the (possibly incomplete) information that has come out so far, Labour ought to kick Brown out. And if Labour dissidents don’t have the numbers in the party room, they should do the decent thing when the Commons next meets.*

    *Opinion subject to revision on receipt of more complete version of facts.

  40. Shows ON,

    You seem to have a dose of that NPD thingo that Turnbull is supposed to have.

    Perhaps you are the original swine that caught the flu.

    Only God knows. Perhaps you should ask him.

  42. What will the Scottish Justice Minister say, post-politics, on all this?

    Whatever he says, I bet he says it loudly. Unless, of course, it’s been made worth his while not to.

    Hell, what if Brown’s accepted something that comes to light? Not much sleep for the dirt-units over there at the moment.

    Imagine the Scottish jokes…

  43. SBS plays a Japanese news show at 5:20 AM. No subtitles though, but it will probably summarise the results.

    I hope Rudd gets on the blower tomorrow and congratulates Hatoyama.

    Even Google Japan has gotten into the act by changing their logo to voting booths:
    http://www.google.co.jp/

  45. The decision to release this guy was made by the Scottish government, not the UK government. Is the allegation that Salmond did at Brown’s (secret) request?

  46. Here is the original article. Time for some resignations. Jack Straw looks like he should be first to go.

    [The British government decided it was “in the overwhelming interests of the United Kingdom” to make Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi, the Lockerbie bomber, eligible for return to Libya, leaked ministerial letters reveal.

    Gordon Brown’s government made the decision after discussions between Libya and BP over a multi-million-pound oil exploration deal had hit difficulties. These were resolved soon afterwards.

    The letters were sent two years ago by Jack Straw, the justice secretary, to Kenny MacAskill, his counterpart in Scotland, who has been widely criticised for taking the formal decision to permit Megrahi’s release.

    The correspondence makes it plain that the key decision to include Megrahi in a deal with Libya to allow prisoners to return home was, in fact, taken in London for British national interests.

    Edward Davey, the Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman, said: “This is the strongest evidence yet that the British government has been involved for a long time in talks over al-Megrahi in which commercial considerations have been central to their thinking.” ]

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6814939.ece

  49. Psephos

    Jack Straw told MacAskill that al-Megrahi was being included in the prisoner swap deal with Libya “in the overwhelming interests of the UK”. I think it’s pretty obvious what that means.

    It’s good to see that they have Godwin Grech’s in the UK too. I hope these letters aren’t fake.

  50. Psephos,

    I have no idea exactly how it was done. But if the central Govt was against it, they would have been shovelling shit on the Scottish Govt as hard as they could, in public.

    They must have been in on it, hoping that the fuss could be minimised (DAMN you, you lying BASTARD, Gaddafi!) and that any opprobrium could be confined to Scotland, with the SNP carrying the can.

    All in all, this is an incredible victory for the Libyans. And British Petroleum, of course…

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