Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 55-45, down from 57-43 at the previous two polls. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 44 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one point to 38 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is up four points to 30 per cent. More to follow. UPDATE: Graphic here. Turnbull’s approval is the only leadership measure that has moved noticeably.

The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 58-42. Also featured: support for an ETS-driven early election continues to fall; confidence in the economy continues to rise; there is no one widely held view on who should be our next US Ambassador; and two-thirds agree that “the Liberals are just not prepared at the moment to take on the difficult task of governing Australia”.

Also:

• The Gold Coast News reports that Peter Dutton faces “an ugly pre-election battle” if he wishes to move from notionally Labor Dickson to the safe Liberal Gold Coast seat of McPherson, to be vacated by the retirement of Margaret May. Rival candidates include federal divisional council chair Karen Andrews, a “close ally” of May; Dr Richard Stuckey, husband of Jann Stuckey, state front-bencher and member for the local seat of Currumbin; and Michael Hart, who unsuccessfully contested the state seat of Burleigh at the last two state elections.

• For the second election in a row, Dennis Jensen will represent the Liberals in their safe Perth seat of Tangney despite having lost the initial preselection vote. The West Australian reports that Jensen won a State Council vote over the initially successful candidate, Glenn Piggott, by no less a margin than 76 votes to five. This result was foreshadowed a month ago by a commenter on this site travelling under the name of Matt Brown’s Imaginary Friend (Matt Brown being the initial victor of the 2007 preselection), who wrote: “Council knows that if Jensen (is) dumped, the Libs’ chances of holding the marginals will dive because campaign funds will be so stretched, adverse publicity will have (a) ripple effect, and Tangney itself could be lost to Jensen if (he) stood as an independent, whether to him or even to the ALP if he did the obvious and swapped preferences with them”.

• Saturday’s Weekend Australian featured a post-redistribution proposal Mackerras pendulum, which you can see at Mumble. The accompanying article takes aim at the assertion of Peter van Onselen and others that the redistributions of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia collectively constitute a “Ruddymander”.

• Simon Benson of The Daily Telegraph reports that the tensions over the New South Wales Labor leadership could be coming to the boil:

With the various warring factions in the Labor party room unable to decide on who would be a replacement, Mr Rees was said to be considering acting before he gets chopped. Sources confirmed he was using threats of a reshuffle to axe “trouble-making” ministers, a veiled reference to Health Minister John Della Bosca, if sniping about his leadership continued. The internal malaise in the Government has become so bad that very few MPs believe the current situation can continue. Mr Rees is also reported to have told those closest to him that his position was untenable if the plotting against him could not be arrested. Another Labor source said Labor powerbrokers including national secretary Karl Bitar were considering tapping Mr Rees on the shoulder next week if they could convince Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt to take over. It is understood Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is also being drafted into the soap opera with sources claiming his Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese has directly lobbied Mr Rudd to support a move to install Ms Tebbutt, who is Mr Albanese’s wife.

John Della Bosca today added fuel to the fire by declaring it was “no state secret” that it was constitutionally possible for an upper house MP such as himself to be Premier. However, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports focus group research shows “many people still think (Rees) should be given time to make a go of the job”, and gives an insight into the public view of Della Bosca, Tebbutt and other sometimes-mentioned leadership prospects, Kristina Keneally, John Robertson and Frank Sartor.

• The ABC reports that the member for the Nationals member for the Victorian state seat of Murray Valley, Ken Jasper, will retire at the next election. Jasper is 71 years old and has held the seat since 1976. I must confess the seat does not loom large in my consciousness, but my election guide entry tells me the Nationals are “concerned at their ability to hold the seat without him”. Jasper nonetheless held the seat in 2006 with 50.9 per cent of the vote against the Liberal candidate’s 21.9 per cent.

• The Victorian Greens have preselected for the highly winnable state seat of Melbourne a barrister and former president of Liberty Victoria, Brian Walters, ahead of Moonee Valley councillor Rose Iser.

Lots more information on various Greens preselections from Ben Raue of The Tally Room:

• Raue appears to have the inside dope on the state upper house preselection in South Australia, declaring former Democrat and current state party convenor Tammy Jennings the “clear frontrunner” for the lucrative top spot (he earlier named SA Farmers Federation chief executive Carol Vincent, former convenor and unsuccessful 1997 lead candidate Paul Petit and unheralded Mark Andrew as the other candidates).

• Raue also names preselection candidates for the Queensland Senate: Larissa Waters (the 2007 candidate, who also ran for Mount Coot-tha at the March state election), “perennial candidates” Libby Connors and Jenny Stirling, and 2009 Sunnybank candidate Matthew Ryan-Sykes.

• Raue names Emma Henley and Peter Campbell as candidates for the Victorian upper house region of Eastern Metropolitan.

• In the Tasmanian state seat of Braddon, Paul O’Halloran has apparently been chosen to “lead the ticket”, to the extent that that means anything under Robson rotation. Braddon is the only one of the five divisions currently without a Greens member.

Antony Green corner:

• In comments on this site, Antony discusses the prospects of a Victorian redistribution before the next federal election:

A Victorian redistribution is due because the boundaries from the last redistribution were gazetted on 29 January 2003. A re-draw starts seven years later, the end of January 2010. A redistribution is not required in the last 12 months before the House expires. The current House first sat on 12 February 2008 so it expires 11 February 2011. This means there is an unfortunate two week gap that will force a redistribution. If the Victorian boundaries had been gazetted two weeks later in 2003, or if the Rudd government had re-called parliament in December 2007, the redistribution would be deferred. Unfortunately, the Electoral Act is very prescriptive on dates so it appears the redistribution will have to take place, unless the act is changed.

• Two posts on his blog relate to the slow decline of the Nationals, one directly, the other with reference to the relative decline of rural population.

• Also featured is a post comparing the current position of the state Labor government in New South Wales with that of the Unsworth government as it drifted to the abyss in 1988.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,352 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  2. Funny, I posted the 55-45 half an hour ago, yet not one response on here yet. If the movement was up rather than down i’m sure there’d be a flood of posts as there usually is…

  3. Kersebleptes

    I’m not up with the theory to which you refer. From my understanding the “scripts” from the Inca times before and after, including the Maya somewhat further North, were accounting vehicles.

  5. Bob 1234 – all within the margin of error – and it seems that we have a very very consistent trend line around 56-44. Unless it goes up or down outside of a band of 54-57 / 46 – 43, I don’t think there is much that need to be said. Turnbull has had a jump in preferred PM but so has Rudd. What else can be said.

  8. Funny how all that’s discussed on Newspoll nowadays is the difference between electoral catastrophe and electoral genocide.

  10. From nationalforum…..

    Concern about the economy has eased substantially (down to 16.4% from a peak
    of 24% in November. Jobs as a concern has fallen remarkably from 11.9% last
    month to 3% this month. The big change has been in health – up from 1.7% in May
    to 9% now, while Change (climate change) has also improved. Debt has increased
    slightly as a concern. Education is the fifth most important issue.

    Of these issues, economic ones, including debt, tend to favour the Liberals,
    while health, climate change and education favour Labor. The movement in these
    issues provides a better explanation in the change in voting intention than the
    approvals of the leaders.

  12. [In Portugal there is no one in prison for drug use:]
    Are there people in jail for drug use in Australia? I doubt it. People may be put in jail for committing crimes in order to sustain drug use, but not for drug use itself.

  14. If what national forum says is correct – that is issues and not the approval of leaders – that moves voting intention, then things will remain basically stable in terms of Labor/LNP preference. The issues – the economy, jobs, public finances, health, education and climate change – are still flowing in Labor’s favour, so there is very little chance things will improve for the LNP even if they can fix their leadership problems.

  15. ShowsOn

    I thought the program said that there are sixty thoudand in Australian jails for drug use. Are there any laws in our nation or states that make drug use illegal? It follows that …

  17. and from the summary provided by onlineforum……

    “Highlights of the research are:

    The strength of the major parties is similar to what it was 12 months ago with Labor and the Greens up a little and the Liberals down a little

    Despite Rudd having had favourable press lately, and Turnbull very unfavourable, their respective approval ratings have barely changed

    Rudd is approved by just over 50% of our respondents, while Turnbull is disapproved by 56%

    In terms of who would make the best prime minister Rudd’s rating suffer from a perception that he is too much about spin (19%) but Turnbull’s suffer from the perception that the Coalition is disunited and he cannot manage it (53%)

    For the first time in 12 months health and education have appeared in the top five issues, while concern about financial matters has diminished significantly

    Most voters approve of the various health measures recommended by the National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission, although they are least enthusiastic about the proposal to have competitive Medicare providers and one general practice.

    When asked how much they would pay towards the Denticare proposal most would not be prepared to pay the 0.75% of income proposed.”

  18. [Are there any laws in our nation or states that make drug use illegal? ]
    There aren’t in South Australia. But it is a crime to possess a certain amount of drugs, a small amount for hard drugs, and quite a lot for marijuana.

    Drug taking itself isn’t illegal.

  19. Loved those photos you posted Finns, nothing like hard evidence to silence the doubters.

    Good article on Fair Work here.

    [The jury is still out on whether the Rudd government’s new Fair Work industrial system will work, a leading employer group says. The government needs to be open to go back to parliament and amend the laws if problems arise, according to Australian Industry Group (AiGroup), chief executive Health Ridout. Mrs Ridout, who has been appointed to a number of government committees and whose organisation worked closely with Labor to develop the new laws.

    In a speech to the World Congress of the International Industrial Relations Association conference in Sydney, Mrs Ridout said workplaces had displayed a high degree of co-operation during the global financial crisis]

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/jury-out-on-fair-work-system-employers-20090824-ewg0.html

    Now why didn’t Howard and the libs encourage and get the unions to work with them, appoint them to advisory boards, seek their opion and input?

  20. The larger issue in the Health Report is that if someone is caught with drugs of more than is considered personal use for ten days he is considered a trafficker; with severe penalties. Below that, the “culprit” is considered ill or, at least, a subject for counselling.

  21. I see also in tomorrows Age that ALP branches in Vic are calling for an overhall of the party in Vic. and a end to branchstacking.

  23. Now why didn’t Howard and the libs encourage and get the unions to work with them, appoint them to advisory boards, seek their opion and input?

    Because Castle Howard’s agenda was destruction of the unions.

  27. Labor 44 down 1
    Liberal 34 up 1
    Nationals 4 steady
    Greens 9 down 1
    Others 9 up 1

    55-45 down 2

    Rudd:
    Satisfaction 61 up 1
    Dissatisfaction 29 up 1

    Turnbull:
    Satisfaction 30 up 4
    Dissatisfaction 56 down 1

    Preferred PM:
    Rudd 66 up 1
    Turnbull 19 up 2

  29. [And weren’t you crowing in anticipation of an INCREASE in the Green Vote ? ]

    Um, where did I say that? I have consistently stated that the polling for the Greens continues to go up after each election and the last election was no different. They’ve gone to a new high of ~10% and haven’t lost it.

    They’ll gain the BOP after the next election, then if the coalition won’t support you, you’ll have to deal with the Greens. Don’t bite the hand that feeds you 😉

  30. [Um, where did I say that? I have consistently stated that the polling for the Greens continues to go up after each election and the last election was no different. They’ve gone to a new high of ~10% and haven’t lost it.]

    Here: 🙂

    [It seems the honeymoon is over criers (Frank and GG) were wrong for the 2532535423th time. The Greens are still polling well above the 2007 result and pre-2007 election polls.]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/08/21/morgan-58-42-5/comment-page-1/#comment-319822

  31. [Here]

    Where? I don’t see anywhere where i’ve said I expected the Greens to increase their polling prior to the next election compared to what they’re polling at present.

  33. Fat Rats about Newspoll, really.

    Lateline Business must be especially appalled or maybe bemused by the likes of.. geez! Chris Bowen. How incredibly nunsuch.

    I am faint at the number of times he used the ‘going forward’ term. And he looked so smug, not realising how dumb he appeared.

    Thanks, Chris Bowen. I will recall you, for only that.

    Think about this, Kev. Don’t need this.

  34. [Funny, I posted the 55-45 half an hour ago, yet not one response on here yet. If the movement was up rather than down i’m sure there’d be a flood of posts as there usually is…]
    I see bob you’re continuing to get on here and fling barbs at PBers you disagree with. These constant inane put downs are so futile and purile. Just a waste of a good post.

  35. [I see bob you’re continuing to get on here and fling barbs at PBers you disagree with. These constant inane put downs are so futile and purile.]

    Barbs? Put downs? Where?

    I simply made a (correct) observation.

  38. Bob spends a lot of time under the bridge waiting for the Gruff brothers. Unfortunately the Gruffs are a large family around these parts.

  40. [There is growing unrest in the Coalition with its foreign affairs spokeswoman, Julie Bishop, but there will be no moves to replace her. As deputy leader, she chooses her portfolio. Any move to dump her as deputy could result in a leadership spill as well. ”You’ll start a war that no one can win,” said one MP.]

    They are stuck with Julie. Almost feel sorry for them.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/turnbull-readies-for-last-stand-20090824-ewl9.html

  41. [Bob spends a lot of time under the bridge waiting for the Gruff brothers. Unfortunately the Gruffs are a large family around these parts.]

    Especially with the Italian branch with all it’s paesane -)

  42. From Twitter re Newspoll:

    [gavindmillerWho is your preferred PM? Malcom Turnbull, or a jar of marbles? I will pass the results on to the people at newspoll11 minutes ago from TweetDeck ]

  46. [William Bowe, on the Labor-friendly Pollbludger.com , comments on Newspoll’s finding that Labor’s lead has dropped from 59-41 to 55-45:

    BOWE: Curious how quiet these threads get when Labor drops four points.

    Possum Comitatus: Heh!]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,23954848-20261,00.html

    HAHAHA

    And Labor-friendly? That must be the understatement of the year! 😀

  47. Bob’s on a one man crusade to change that perception for William.

    Bob, it’s a quality thing that works best, not quantity.

    HAHAHA doesn’t quite cut it, except perhaps at Green party meetings after the giggle stick has been passed around.

  48. To further expand on #45, the June 12-14 Newspoll was the 53/47 one. The 56/44 poll two weeks later was OzCar where Turnbull’s dissatisfaction skyrocketed by 21% in a single poll to 58%. Rudd’s satisfaction only went up 1%, yet the Preferred PM rating went from 57/25 to 65/18. Turnbull is exaggerating Labor’s lead.

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