The Australian reports that the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 55-45, down from 57-43 at the previous two polls. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 44 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one point to 38 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is up four points to 30 per cent. More to follow. UPDATE: Graphic here. Turnbull’s approval is the only leadership measure that has moved noticeably.
The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead steady at 58-42. Also featured: support for an ETS-driven early election continues to fall; confidence in the economy continues to rise; there is no one widely held view on who should be our next US Ambassador; and two-thirds agree that “the Liberals are just not prepared at the moment to take on the difficult task of governing Australia”.
Also:
• The Gold Coast News reports that Peter Dutton faces “an ugly pre-election battle” if he wishes to move from notionally Labor Dickson to the safe Liberal Gold Coast seat of McPherson, to be vacated by the retirement of Margaret May. Rival candidates include federal divisional council chair Karen Andrews, a “close ally” of May; Dr Richard Stuckey, husband of Jann Stuckey, state front-bencher and member for the local seat of Currumbin; and Michael Hart, who unsuccessfully contested the state seat of Burleigh at the last two state elections.
• For the second election in a row, Dennis Jensen will represent the Liberals in their safe Perth seat of Tangney despite having lost the initial preselection vote. The West Australian reports that Jensen won a State Council vote over the initially successful candidate, Glenn Piggott, by no less a margin than 76 votes to five. This result was foreshadowed a month ago by a commenter on this site travelling under the name of Matt Brown’s Imaginary Friend (Matt Brown being the initial victor of the 2007 preselection), who wrote: “Council knows that if Jensen (is) dumped, the Libs’ chances of holding the marginals will dive because campaign funds will be so stretched, adverse publicity will have (a) ripple effect, and Tangney itself could be lost to Jensen if (he) stood as an independent, whether to him or even to the ALP if he did the obvious and swapped preferences with them”.
• Saturday’s Weekend Australian featured a post-redistribution proposal Mackerras pendulum, which you can see at Mumble. The accompanying article takes aim at the assertion of Peter van Onselen and others that the redistributions of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia collectively constitute a “Ruddymander”.
• Simon Benson of The Daily Telegraph reports that the tensions over the New South Wales Labor leadership could be coming to the boil:
With the various warring factions in the Labor party room unable to decide on who would be a replacement, Mr Rees was said to be considering acting before he gets chopped. Sources confirmed he was using threats of a reshuffle to axe “trouble-making” ministers, a veiled reference to Health Minister John Della Bosca, if sniping about his leadership continued. The internal malaise in the Government has become so bad that very few MPs believe the current situation can continue. Mr Rees is also reported to have told those closest to him that his position was untenable if the plotting against him could not be arrested. Another Labor source said Labor powerbrokers including national secretary Karl Bitar were considering tapping Mr Rees on the shoulder next week if they could convince Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt to take over. It is understood Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is also being drafted into the soap opera with sources claiming his Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese has directly lobbied Mr Rudd to support a move to install Ms Tebbutt, who is Mr Albanese’s wife.
John Della Bosca today added fuel to the fire by declaring it was “no state secret” that it was constitutionally possible for an upper house MP such as himself to be Premier. However, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports focus group research shows “many people still think (Rees) should be given time to make a go of the job”, and gives an insight into the public view of Della Bosca, Tebbutt and other sometimes-mentioned leadership prospects, Kristina Keneally, John Robertson and Frank Sartor.
• The ABC reports that the member for the Nationals member for the Victorian state seat of Murray Valley, Ken Jasper, will retire at the next election. Jasper is 71 years old and has held the seat since 1976. I must confess the seat does not loom large in my consciousness, but my election guide entry tells me the Nationals are “concerned at their ability to hold the seat without him”. Jasper nonetheless held the seat in 2006 with 50.9 per cent of the vote against the Liberal candidate’s 21.9 per cent.
• The Victorian Greens have preselected for the highly winnable state seat of Melbourne a barrister and former president of Liberty Victoria, Brian Walters, ahead of Moonee Valley councillor Rose Iser.
Lots more information on various Greens preselections from Ben Raue of The Tally Room:
• Raue appears to have the inside dope on the state upper house preselection in South Australia, declaring former Democrat and current state party convenor Tammy Jennings the “clear frontrunner” for the lucrative top spot (he earlier named SA Farmers Federation chief executive Carol Vincent, former convenor and unsuccessful 1997 lead candidate Paul Petit and unheralded Mark Andrew as the other candidates).
• Raue also names preselection candidates for the Queensland Senate: Larissa Waters (the 2007 candidate, who also ran for Mount Coot-tha at the March state election), “perennial candidates” Libby Connors and Jenny Stirling, and 2009 Sunnybank candidate Matthew Ryan-Sykes.
• Raue names Emma Henley and Peter Campbell as candidates for the Victorian upper house region of Eastern Metropolitan.
• In the Tasmanian state seat of Braddon, Paul O’Halloran has apparently been chosen to “lead the ticket”, to the extent that that means anything under Robson rotation. Braddon is the only one of the five divisions currently without a Greens member.
Antony Green corner:
• In comments on this site, Antony discusses the prospects of a Victorian redistribution before the next federal election:
A Victorian redistribution is due because the boundaries from the last redistribution were gazetted on 29 January 2003. A re-draw starts seven years later, the end of January 2010. A redistribution is not required in the last 12 months before the House expires. The current House first sat on 12 February 2008 so it expires 11 February 2011. This means there is an unfortunate two week gap that will force a redistribution. If the Victorian boundaries had been gazetted two weeks later in 2003, or if the Rudd government had re-called parliament in December 2007, the redistribution would be deferred. Unfortunately, the Electoral Act is very prescriptive on dates so it appears the redistribution will have to take place, unless the act is changed.
• Two posts on his blog relate to the slow decline of the Nationals, one directly, the other with reference to the relative decline of rural population.
• Also featured is a post comparing the current position of the state Labor government in New South Wales with that of the Unsworth government as it drifted to the abyss in 1988.
Goodness, the LDP have only won 20 single-member seats of the 228 declared so far. If it wasn’t for the PR seats they’d be almost wiped out.
[It’s good to see that they have Godwin Grech’s in the UK too.]
Godwin McGrech, perhaps. But of course this is genuine whistle-blowing, not just being a Tory spy.
I wonder which LDP members are surviving? The really right wing WWII was America’s fault ones? Or the moderate ones?
Could it be that the LDP returns as a more right wing party?
It’s not going to go down well in the US. George Bush would probably have bombed the UK to teach them a lesson.
Diogs,
Bush would have bombed “New England”, just to teach them a lesson.
Diogenes,
That’s the really silly thing. American plane, American victims, one of America’s favourite enemies. Not promising territory.
Brown possibly had little regard for his special friends across the Pond…
Sort of a Bennelong moment:
[Former Prime Minister Kaifu lost in Aichi. Possible DPJ sweep in Aichi.]
The Komeito leader has lost his seat. Good riddance to corrupt gangsters.
[Brown possibly had little regard for his special friends across the Pond…]
Brown held a press conference last week saying he was opposed to the release.
Surely he isn’t stupid enough to say that in a press conference when he privately approved it?
Maybe Her Maj will sack him. 😀
The DP is winning virtually all the urban seats. The LDP is hanging on mainly in its rural seats in the southern islands, where feudal relations are strongest.
GG
People are, by their nature, irrational beings. Religion could not exist without it. A religion needs certain things to service: guilt for breaking their rules and reproduction like Catholics do so well. It’s evolution baby, that’s why suicide cults aren’t more popular, they don’t pass the survival of the fittest test.
GG, once you admit to relying on faith (should read “irrational blind acceptance of hocus pocus without any evidence) we leave the realm of argument and lodgic so this discussion is futile.
The world is full of beauty but magic or the supernatural is by definition impossible. Mixing bi carb and vinagar looks like magic but it isn’t. Magic would have to operate under a set of guiding laws – that we can call the ‘laws of science’. Octopus look cool, as do pictures of space, people we are attracted to look amazing. There’s no need to make up fantasy angels, we have more amazing things in real life.
So anyway, anyone ever heard of this thing called ‘polls’?
ShowsOn,
Well, he didn’t say it in Parliament (did he?).
There may be another resignation or two from amongst his ministers, if this starts to hurt Brown.
[People are, by their nature, irrational beings.]
Rubbish.
The Heysen Molotov,
The term “poll” refers to the occipital protrusion at the back of a horse’s skull.
Sorry! Forgot the link.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poll_(livestock)
Oh, stuff it…
There’s an outside chance the DJP will get 320 seats, which is a super majority.
I don’t exactly know what this means, but it could mean changing the constitution.
My London correspondent tells me that on the 1pm BBC Radio news, Straw was denying everything and saying the story was “absurd”.
So it will probably come down to the bona fides of the letters that the Times has got hold of.
Will David Cameron do a Turnbull, and demand that Brown resigns? Somehow I doubt it!
It seems that a super majority enables passing legislation even if it is blocked by the upper house:
[If a bill is adopted by the House of Representatives and then either rejected, amended or not approved within 60 days by the House of Councillors, then the bill will become law if again adopted by the House of Representatives by a majority of at least two-thirds of members present.]
[So it will probably come down to the bona fides of the letters that the Times has got hold of.]
Has Godwin Grech had access to a computer while in hospital?
I heard somewhere Japan is horribly gerrymandered?
2167
Changing the Japanese Constitution requires a two-thirds supermajority in both houses, followed by a referendum.
[Changing the Japanese Constitution requires a two-thirds supermajority in both houses, followed by a referendum.]
Thanks! That sounds even harder than changing the Australian constitution.
[I heard somewhere Japan is horribly gerrymandered?]
The single-member seats are malapportioned in favour of the rural areas, though not as badly as they used to be. That is partly offset by the PR seats.
Sounds like the new government should push through some electoral reform.
The DJP will most likely stuff things up though soo many years out of government and having so much power…it is almost like Whitlam coming to power after 20 odd years and Howie’s Senate Majority in 2004 a mix like that cant be good.
I can understand the It’s Time factor must be playing a big role here.
If only Junichiro Koizumi had stayed LDP leader and PM this may not have happened.
[That sounds even harder than changing the Australian constitution.]
Yes and no. It would basically tighten the initiation process to require bipartisan agreement, while loosening the ratification process by abolishing the double majority requirement. Since the conventional wisdom goes that referendums never succeed without bipartisan agreement anyway (and often not even then), you might argue the Japanese method would make it easier.
I wouldn’t get my hopes up about the new government. Ichiro Ozawa, the DPJ godfather, is one of the nastiest men in Japanese politics, which is saying a lot. But this enormous mandate for change will be hard to ignore.
[The DJP will most likely stuff things up though soo many years out of government and having so much power…]
Well, to take your Whitlam analogy further, when Whitlam was elected some sections of the public service, notably the treasury where full of Liberal hacks that refused to accept the legitimacy of the Whitlam government, hence they leaked against the new government.
The new government should sack a heap of bureaucrats to show them who is boss.
Glen,
Not to mention the “demographic catastrophe” that Japan is caught in.
No matter how dominant the DJP are, could they loosen immigration controls and survive long?
I bet not…
[Not to mention the “demographic catastrophe” that Japan is caught in.]
No easy answer to that one.
BTW how long is a Japanese parliamentary term?
Did no-one, no-one, understand that the reference to Joseph Campbell’s work was to invite people to understand beliefs in context, and specifically in historical contexts, at the very least.
four years
Harry “Snapper” Organs,
It did go over my head, sorry. But don’t ask a pack of atheists feeling their oats to have sympathy for ‘ligos. You’re up a gum tree without a paddle, there.
Harry @ 2182
[the reference to Joseph Campbell’s work]
Looks interesting by the Wiki outline. I must follow up on him.
Thanks
HSO,
I’m sorry. I missed it. Can you please provide the reference.
Psephos
Okay, how about I rephrase this: irrational behavior and beliefs are common amoungst humans.
Everyone that has ever believed in the occult, not picked ’13’ because it is unlucky (sometimes I know something is superstitious nonsence and yet I do it anyway which is the hight of irrationality), had a mental health problem such as drug, alcohol or gambling problems, or an eating disorder or an obsesive compolsive disorder, or Turnbull Syndrome is displaying irrational tendencies. It is also irrational to party instead of study when one has an exam the next morning. So add procrastination to the list of irrational activities. is it rational to destroy our planet and work long hours to fuel the production of consumer goods for just one generation, when we all know gadgets do not equal hapiness? Isn’t love sort of irrational? Revenge is also irrational if it won’t reverse the offence or discourage it in the future. In fact much of what makes us human is irrational, though we also have a rational side. The problem is that although our conscious might be rational all to often our sub-conscious is irrational. Robots might not waste their time going to the holy temple but nor do they fall in love or skip down the street or jump in puddles.
William, I’ve been reading through the site for some information on the Nippon result. Will you do something separate, or let it happen on this thread?
[Did no-one, no-one, understand that the reference to Joseph Campbell’s work was to invite people to understand beliefs in context, and specifically in historical contexts,]
Do you mean that it is justifiable for humans 30,000 years ago to come up with religious beliefs to explain natural phenomena like the sun rising?
To me this observation that religious thoughts are a product of their time is another strike mark against religion. As each year passes science explains more and more, while religion explains less and less.
ShowsOn @2042
[The one valuable thing it did do was enable the top of secular power hierarchies to continue to act with a shared “moral compass”.]
[Can you elaborate? I’m not completely sure what you mean.]
In early societies, moral authority was based primarily on the political hierarchy (might is right).
The top dog was therefore functionally amoral, only having his personal whims to guide him.
Religion gets around this by extending the hierarchy into the imaginary field.
The top dog now (in theory) answers to god. The holy scriptures act as a shared moral constitution. The clergy class creates an alternate (sometimes) power base.
The religion also re-enforces the existing structures, because they really are just a reflection of them.
History is full of ways that this system can fail, but it usually does a better job than the preceding model.
check out the cute graphics
http://www.asahi.com/
if you click on one of the districts on the map, and then click on one of the districts, you get little animations of the candidates, with the winner giving the “banzai.” I don’t think Green-san will be able to emulate this.
[I’m sorry. I missed it. Can you please provide the reference.]
Post #2046.
Kersepbleptes, it was a reference to someone who has done a very impressive body of work, and if you had any interest in understanding people believing in all sorts of powers beyond themselves, which occurs across time and cultures. it wouldn’t be a bad place to start.
[William, I’ve been reading through the site for some information on the Nippon result. Will you do something separate, or let it happen on this thread?]
This thread. I don’t want to actively encourage internationalisation of this site (might I suggest Ben Raue’s The Tally Room?), but at the same time I’m relaxed about people going off-topic towards the end of long, soon-to-be-closed threads.
Japans economy is stuffed. They aren’t producing enough proleteriat locally and refuse to import them from cheap overseas sources. A growth economy is in real trouble when it stops growing. However the world is finite with finite resources so that will plague all growth economies eventually, which is why we need a “steady-state economy”.
I humbly accept, Harry. I am incurably flip, and on this occasion I apologise.
G.G. and Shows , The 4 book collection is called “The Faces of God”. The 4 volumes are: a collection of all creation beliefs; another, all primitive beliefs; and the next 2, all occidental and oriental beliefs. It’s by Joseph Campbell, anthropologist. He wrote a range of other stuff, my favourite being a collection from the North Amerindians, just after the Europeans “arrived”
Thanks, William. Much appreciated.
A Christian told me once that if you don’t accept Jesus as your savior then you go to hell for all eternity. I replied “okay what about the native Americans living in the modern day US in the year 50AD? They not only don’t believe Jesus is God, they’ve never heard of him or had the opertunity to hear of him. Did every single person living on that continent in that century and the next 15 or so centuries go to hell for pain and suffering for all eternity?”. He replied “yes, it’s unfortunate but that is exactly why we must spread the good word”.
Kersebleptes, no sweat.