UPDATE: This post was originally called “Newspoll minus three days”, but has been changed after Roy Morgan broke their normal fortnightly pattern by issuing results from last weekend’s face-to-face polling (i.e. before the stimulus package was announced). From a sample of 853, it shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 59.5-40.5 to 56-44. Labor’s primary vote is down four points to 46.5 per cent, the Coalition is up two to 38 per cent and the Greens are up half a point to 8 per cent.
The excitement of the past few days has quickly overloaded Tuesday’s thread, while adding real interest to the next set of opinion polls. Unless ACNielsen and Galaxy have something planned over the weekend, the next ones up are the regular Monday double of weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Newspoll. John Hewson tells Crikey he’s expecting an election later this year, presumably a double dissolution:
You’d have to think that the odds are narrowing on the possibility of an early election, towards the end of this year. At best, the Rudd Government’s second stimulatory package will just buy some time – simply delay the inevitable. As long as the global recession continues to deepen and, as a consequence, China’s growth continues to stall, the best Rudd can hope for is to hold up consumer spending by the cash handouts sufficient to avoid a technical recession – namely, two consecutive quarters of negative growth … Moreover, the ETS is to be introduced next year with all the scaremongering opportunities that carries for the major polluters. So why not go the people for a “mandate” to continue with the strategy, especially now that Turnbull has so clearly nailed his colours to the mast, becoming such a fixed target, from both outside and within?
Of course, there’s much here that might be contested, not to mention the lack of a double dissolution trigger at this stage. In brief:
• Possum dissects the electoral impact of the stimulus package here and here.
• Antony Green analyses the finalised federal redistribution boundaries for Western Australia.
• The Senate has amended legislation abolishing tax deductible political donations, which will instead be limited to donations from individuals rather than companies. Deductions applied for donations of up to $100 from individuals before the Howard government’s 2006 “reforms” jacked it up to $1500 and extended it to companies. The legislation as amended maintains the $1500 threshold.
Frank, Then we disagree. I can’t help but compare this with a car crash where reporters can’t mention contributing factors (e.g. poor road maintenance, excessive speed, lack of decent street lighting etc) out of deference to the community and the way they feel.
Steve, they’re things that are normally bought up at the inquest.
Adam – Naylor would be 78.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Naylor_(broadcaster)
His wife is confirmed as among the dead, which does not bode well for him.
From the point of view of CC, the significant thing is the heatwave, not the fires that inevitably come with heatwaves. This was the hottest succession of days in recorded Victorian history.
Sky has the number at 76. Nine News was forecasting it is likely the total will be 100+.
A good night all. I’m going to sit back and enjoy some nice BBC drama on the ABC.
This is becoming a Bolt argument, sure CC is real and it will increase the occurance of extreme weather events.
But to say that the Victorian fires are a result of CC is bollocks. 🙁
[It’s an indictment on yourselves that when the warning signs are being shoved in your faces you clamour to defend the man who’s consigning this country to more of the same – and worse, and attack someone for pointing out the truth.]
Oz Just thinking you know more and are better than anyone else doesn’t make it so.
And don’t you be getting all high and mighty with me, and don’t try and twist what people say so you can get on your high horse and preach at the rest of us.You like to critisise Rudd every chance you get ,for example
[Rudd and other short-term, narrow minded leaders]
and you also talk down to anyone who dares to support him but you can’t handle anyone critisising Bob Brown or his policies. He was tactless and as I said earlier politics could wait until the suffering and greiving these fires have caused eases a little. No one said he shouldn’t talk about CC it is the timing that IMHO is off.
You should live by your own words you know the ones, don’t ‘attack someone for pointing out the truth’
[Sky has the number at 76. Nine News was forecasting it is likely the total will be 100+.]
That latter figure was givenb to me last night unofficially by a net contact that I’ve known for some years who was one of the security officers at the Triage Centre at the Whittlesea CFA staging point. I’m assuming that they’re slowly updating the numbers once the next of kin are advised.
Judith, I have lost a loved one and I do understand. I see things differently that’s all. We can disagree.
Also there is no need for snide remarks about Rudd because he went and talked to fire victims. Comments like that are just mean and petty.
1051
These things are brought up by the reporter on the spot. Watch any half hour news bulletin and you’ll see for yourself. Have you never seen a TV journalist at the scence of a level crossing smash speaking with a local activist who claims to have made repeated representations to local / state government to upgrade the crossing? Of course you have.
Bali I was 78 Australians. Granville was 87. Cyclone Tracey was 70. It looks like this is the worst disaster of the 20th or 21st Centuries apart from wartime events. I’m excluding the heatwaves as the tolls are too unreliable.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_disasters_in_Australia_by_death_toll
Adam @ 1017
Agree. Grattan. Clear. Fair. Thoughtful. Very Smart.
Diog
Did you read yesterdays Lancet online version? Re Alcohol related deaths. That is a disaster. 🙁
Yup, The Lancet, first thing I read every morning.
I would agree that these fires are not directly related to climate change but the frequency and types of these events will be a result of climate change. Climate change can be directly attributed to the drought and dryness of the vegetation.
Climate change will result in more horrific events, increased temperatures and hot spells and weather events out of the publics control. To suggest this is a one off, is bollocks.
Last year in Victoria their was a day in April of extremely strong winds which caused massive power outages, damages to homes, something which i cannot remember happening.
Climate change is i believe moving more rapid then many of us want to believe.
Finally look at what the hot spell has done in Victoria, it has caused massive fruit and veg burning and destruction, this alone will result in price rises and shortages, this alone is something which i think will be a frightening result in Victoria.
Shocking news about BN – If true RIP Mr Naylor
“Around 2 billion people worldwide consume alcoholic beverages and over 76 million people have alcohol-use disorders. In most parts of the world the burden related to alcohol consumption in terms of morbidity, mortality, and disability is substantial. WHO estimates that the harmful use of alcohol causes about 2·3 million premature deaths per year worldwide (3·7% of global mortality) and is responsible for 4·4% of the global burden of disease.”
Maybe you should read it Adam. 😛
[To draw a direct link to CC in the context of this bushfire is disingenuous. There will be plenty of time for finger-pointing later.]
I don’t recall any one making a direct link, and I already said once before neither I, nor Senator Brown, are pointing fingers.
Brown’s quote is:
“the “dreadful inferno” was a terrible reminder of what climate change could mean for Australians.””
And I’ve said that this bushfire unfortunately heralds what we’re likely to see more of with climate change.
[if you’ve ever lost a loved one you’d understand.]
Judith, it’s because I don’t want to see anyone else lose their lives due to something that is within our control, be they Australians or whoever, that I will not be scared into hiding and simply ignore the truth. There’s nothing disingenuous or selfish about what I’m saying. The selfishness and hypocrisy comes from those who apparently sympathise those who have lost lives and homes and then go back to supporting policies that are going to lead to the loss of more lives and homes.
[But to say that the Victorian fires are a result of CC is bollocks.]
Did Brown say so? From the comments I’ve read, he hasn’t.
Have I said so? I don’t believe so, but if something has been construed that way because I poorly phrased it then I withdraw it since that has never been my intention.
ruawake
One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.
I spent the whole of the 1980s reading medical journals and I’m not keen to resume the habit.
The fires were caused by the heatwave, and it’s at least arguable that the heatwave – certainly the intensity and the length of the heatwave – was the product of climate change. The fact that there have been heatwaves and bushfires in the past doesn’t alter that. Robert Mugabe didn’t invent cholera, but the current cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe is his responsibility.
Vera,
Don’t accuse me of being a Labor/Rudd-hating-Brown-phile. I’ve defended and supported many of Rudd’s policies against plenty of people on this blog, on others and in real life. I believe it’s possible to be something other than a Labor Party stooge or a Green Party stooge.
[He was tactless and as I said earlier politics could wait until the suffering and greiving these fires have caused eases a little.]
There is nothing tactless about telling the truth and being one of the few politicians to have the foresight and compassion to care enough about the future of Australia and the world to stop these things from becoming more frequent and worse in their nature.
For the record, you aren’t criticising any policies, just saying “the timing is off IMHO”. That’s completely your prerogative, but it’s also mine to disagree with you and place why.
When the CC sceptics find an iceberg increasing in length or a record cold snap they say, ‘See, CC zealots have got it all wrong!’ The problem with their argument is that one cold snap or one lengthening iceberg or even a cooler year prove exactly nothing about climate change. Ditto one bushfire. Ditto one hot spell.
It would be reasonable to say that climate change will make it much likely that we will have more frequent and hotter hot spells, and more frequent, and worse bushfires.
All the politicians I have ever known are perfectly aware that disasters require issue management. Some of them are sincere in their sympathy for individuals. Some of them are effective in providing effective post-disaster responses. Some of them are effective at media management during disasters. Brumby, Gillard on Insiders, Turnbull and Rudd have shown themselves to be competent politicians in the current disaster. They all understand that one of the golden rules of the disaster issues management game is to seem as if you are not acting in your own or party-political interests.
Bob Brown does not subscribe to that golden rule. He subscribes to a single PR rule consistently regardless of the politics: ‘On the environment, say it like it is’. He thus leaves himself open to changes of callousness and poor judgement. Poor politics.
[Also there is no need for snide remarks about Rudd because he went and talked to fire victims.]
They aren’t snide Vera, they are the truth. Unless you point out the factual or scientific inaccuracies within them?
I understand that a lot of supporters of Rudd’s climate change policy have convinced themselves that because Rudd says it’ll make everything ok, it actually will, but that doesn’t make it true.
Adam in the last ten years temperatures on average in Austrlalia have been increasing each year. Each year records now are being broken regarding temperatures, heatwaves, droughts, days without water, and temperatures for months. To deny that suddenly these events have occurred and yes they have, but the frequency of these events is rapidly increasing. The heat spell last week was a record in temperatures and number of days, and yesterday was the hottest day ever, and the hottest for Februrary. Lack of days without rainfall is also a record in Melbourne at present.
Steve K, i’ve seen more of journos and they’re methods than you could ever poke a stick at, yes we’ve all lost loved ones, but not in traumatic circumstances such as these, the rythm of life you can accept, it’s natural, but not to have them ripped away from you in terror, those families will hear the screams of their loved ones in their dreams for years to come, now they need time to accept whats happened.
Oz, this is the last i’m saying on the subject because i’m getting emotional, it’s not whats been said and whether it’s right or wrong–it’s the bloody timing, in parliament next week or as the inquest happens is the right time to make points such as these, NOT NOW!
Oz
I support the Greens policies and will continue to do so after this. I don’t think that’s hypocritical.
[There is nothing tactless about telling the truth]
The truth is often tactless. For example, many deaths are due to people’s actions (alcohol, cigarettes, stupidity). Doctors (and Brown is a doctor) get taught it’s better not to tell the patient who’s just been told he’s got lung cancer that if he didn’t smoke it wouldn’t have happened. That would be true but tactless.
[Bob Brown does not subscribe to that golden rule. He subscribes to a single PR rule consistently regardless of the politics: ‘On the environment, say it like it is’. He thus leaves himself open to changes of callousness and poor judgement. Poor politics.]
Agree 110% Is it any wonder that with comments like that, the Greens aren’t treated seriously by the average voter.
Rudd not attending these events would be heartless. More should he do Vera sit at home and do nothing. To see the pain and suffering would at least show that the government is doing something and does care.
Oz
It does not matter if CC will accelerate the number of extreme weather events, of course it will. No sane person would deny this truth.
The point is that BB could not help himself – he is so programmed to be “on message” that he failed to see that his message was not the best one to be pushing today.
Poor judgement in my view. 🙁
What was the question that Brown was asked? Thus he may not have directly wished to state something regarding climate change.
Diogenes you’re right about the truth/tactless.
But to make your lung cancer analogy more relevant, if a patient who smoked was diagnosed with a lung disease and the doctor knew that if the patient continued to smoke it create more problems and would greatly increase chances of death then wouldn’t the doctor have the responsibility to tell the patient as soon as possible?
[Agree 110% Is it any wonder that with comments like that, the Greens aren’t treated seriously by the average voter.]
Of course Frank. The 1 million + people who voted for them at the last Federal election, the 16% who voted them at the last ACT election, the 12% at the last WA election etc. etc. are all rabid ferals.
[Of course Frank. The 1 million + people who voted for them at the last Federal election, the 16% who voted them at the last ACT election, the 12% at the last WA election etc. etc. are all rabid ferals.]
And not enough to win a lower house seat nor form Government in their own right.
You’ve just answered your own Question 🙂
ruawake, i was interested in your opinion of Jana Wendt, i guess everyone has two sides, my family saw her entirely differently, maybe it was a bad day for her, i’ll pass on your opinion, maybe we shouldnt jump to conclusions as quickly as we sometimes do.
[The point is that BB could not help himself – he is so programmed to be “on message” that he failed to see that his message was not the best one to be pushing today.]
Plenty of people have used examples of current problems associated with climate change to ram home to the seriousness of the issue, even while they are ongoing. This includes flooding in Bangladesh, the sinking of Pacific islands and the Maldives and heatwaves around the world.
I can understand the sensitivity to those who have lost lives, but the comments are not directed at those who have lost lives but to those who are in a position to lower the chances of it happening again.
From the logic of some here, any news reports of arsonists should also be culled as “political point scoring” considering they are more directly related to the fires (in this case) and “finger-pointing” than Brown’s comments.
[it’s better not to tell the patient who’s just been told he’s got lung cancer that if he didn’t smoke it wouldn’t have happened. That would be true but tactless.]
Once a patient has lung cancer there’s no point in lecturing them. But it is a doctor’s duty to warn smokers of the risk of lung cancer (etc) unless they quit. Likewise it is a politician’s duty to warn what will happen unless action is taken on CC. Maybe today wasn’t the best day to say it, but maybe it was. If an overweight patient has a mild heart attack, what better day to warn them of what will heppen unless they change their behavior?
[You’ve just answered your own Question :-)]
I didn’t ask a question.
I guess the image of “average voter” in your mind is particularly skewed to ignore significant parts of Australia society who have previously voted for Labor or Liberal.
Sky confirms death of Brian Naylor.
Just a small point on CC and it being a tiny bit cold in Europe, and a little warm in Australia.
One of the expected events is changing ocean currents, in particular the gulf stream that takes warm water up the side of Europe and the USA will slow down. This will result in increasingly colder winters in the North, with most of Europe and North America becoming about as cold as Swedan and Finland. Things on the southern side of the globe are expected to be warmer.
Sorry folks, time to read up on chaos theory and understand what it means to push a high gain non linear system into another stable state. It very much looks as if we have succeeded, and if we have it is worth noting that the last time this happened Europe’s temperature dropped about 1 degree a year for about 10 years. If we have succeeded what we are seeing now is nothing.
arson is a deliberate crime just like murder, there is a big difference, just as i believe in CC i also believe arsonists should be locked up for life with no parole.
Oz i don’t care if you dissagree with me, everyone’s free to voice their opinions as it should be, it’s your rants like this about my “precious leader” and “Labor Stooges” and your continuous griiping if anyone criticises Brown that gets on my tits.
[But for some reason you believe that because Rudd says something it’s going to happen. That’s not the case and your precious leader is going to have a lot to answer for.]
I have to say, if you want tactless comments you don’t need to go further than this:
[South Australian Premier Mike Rann labels arsonists ‘terrorists’]
They’re terrible offences, but they don’t fit the definition for terrorism.
RIP Bryan Naylor. 🙁
Putting aside the question of whether Brown should have raised CC and the fires now (I think inappropriate) the CC link does have substance. The fires are of course a product of the heatwave. This heatwave was linked to climate change by weather forecasters in two respects prior to the fires:
– this heatwave has been unusually long, intense and widesprad; concistent with CC projections;
– in Adelaide’s case, this was the second year in a row; one isloated event is not CC but a string of them might be.
There have been an unusual concentration of drought years in SE Australia this decade. That is CC.
Oz
Your defence of BB is admirable – but in my view he was using the fires to press his political agenda.
The merits of his case are irrelevant – and he should know better. I have no objection to his pressing his view as hard as he can – but to do it today is wrong. If you cannot see this fair enough.
No other politician from any party made an attempt to push any political view today in respect of the fires. Except Dr. Brown.
“arsonists should be locked up for life with no parole”
They won’t re-offend and it would be cheaper than fighting the fires. I can’t see how they do it, I stayed home yesterday just in case I had to open up the gates to give the stock free range of the place ( we have paddocks eaten out as part of our fire plan). I tell you it was so hot and the winds so fast the whole thing filled me with fear, the only hope in my view was no fire.
[Sky confirms death of Brian Naylor]
RIP. Hopefully the media don’t turn this into a circus and forget the others that have lost their lives as well.
Vera, I didn’t accuse you of being a “Labor stooge”, re-read the context. I was stating that it’s possible to agree with Rudd on some issues without being a Labor stooge and agree with Brown without being a Green stooge.
[continuous griiping if anyone criticises Brown that gets on my tits.]
Everyone is allowed to criticise Brown. And I’m allowed to say “I don’t think these comments should not have been said”.
But I expect I can criticise Rudd tomorrow and not get any counter-arguments? If I do, I’ll be sure to refer to it as “continuous griping”.