Morgan: 56-44

UPDATE: This post was originally called “Newspoll minus three days”, but has been changed after Roy Morgan broke their normal fortnightly pattern by issuing results from last weekend’s face-to-face polling (i.e. before the stimulus package was announced). From a sample of 853, it shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 59.5-40.5 to 56-44. Labor’s primary vote is down four points to 46.5 per cent, the Coalition is up two to 38 per cent and the Greens are up half a point to 8 per cent.

The excitement of the past few days has quickly overloaded Tuesday’s thread, while adding real interest to the next set of opinion polls. Unless ACNielsen and Galaxy have something planned over the weekend, the next ones up are the regular Monday double of weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Newspoll. John Hewson tells Crikey he’s expecting an election later this year, presumably a double dissolution:

You’d have to think that the odds are narrowing on the possibility of an early election, towards the end of this year. At best, the Rudd Government’s second stimulatory package will just buy some time – simply delay the inevitable. As long as the global recession continues to deepen and, as a consequence, China’s growth continues to stall, the best Rudd can hope for is to hold up consumer spending by the cash handouts sufficient to avoid a technical recession – namely, two consecutive quarters of negative growth … Moreover, the ETS is to be introduced next year with all the scaremongering opportunities that carries for the major polluters. So why not go the people for a “mandate” to continue with the strategy, especially now that Turnbull has so clearly nailed his colours to the mast, becoming such a fixed target, from both outside and within?

Of course, there’s much here that might be contested, not to mention the lack of a double dissolution trigger at this stage. In brief:

• Possum dissects the electoral impact of the stimulus package here and here.

• Antony Green analyses the finalised federal redistribution boundaries for Western Australia.

• The Senate has amended legislation abolishing tax deductible political donations, which will instead be limited to donations from individuals rather than companies. Deductions applied for donations of up to $100 from individuals before the Howard government’s 2006 “reforms” jacked it up to $1500 and extended it to companies. The legislation as amended maintains the $1500 threshold.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,270 comments on “Morgan: 56-44”

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  1. [ruawake, what did you think of Jana Wendt, shes faded into the sunset now
    if anyone wants a redneck irritating radio announcer try Bob Francis here in Adelaide, the sweetheart of the blue rinse liberal happy clappers, if your not a lib dont bother to ring his talkback, all you’ll get is abuse.]

    And it’s ironic that Bob, like John Laws and Keith McGowen on 3AW were hop Top 40 DJ’s in the 1960’s playing anti-establishment music from the likes of John Lennon etc.

  2. i guess it’s all relative, one lady is bewailing losing her farm equipment and complained because the firefighters cut the fence and took off to a worse place, others are grieving their dead, i dont want to sound hard and i know it would be dreadful losing one’s goods but they’re all alive and well, for that they should be eternally grateful, they could have everything i own and i wouldnt turn a hair as long as my family is ok.

  3. Judith 998, Bob Francis is even more dangerous on the pavements of Adelaide with his motorised scooter! Have you encountered him there? I often get out of his way in Victoria Square on weekday mornings.

  5. [i guess it’s all relative, one lady is bewailing losing her farm equipment and complained because the firefighters cut the fence and took off to a worse place, others are grieving their dead, i dont want to sound hard and i know it would be dreadful losing one’s goods but they’re all alive and well, for that they should be eternally grateful, they could have everything i own and i wouldnt turn a hair as long as my family is ok.]

    Exactly, they don’t realise that the Firies prioritise according to the severity of the fire, and the danger to people. You can rebuild a house, but you cannot rebuild a dead releative.

  7. [the new ch7 program Sunday Night seems to be shades of Barcelona under another name.]

    And Mike Munro went to seven for this ? He should’ve stuck with reading the Sydney Weekend news, but then again – Munro was a Bovver Boy during his ACA days – and trying to be the nice guy on This Is Your Life is like Ray Martin doing Midday – a real good way to ruin your Journalistic reputation.

  8. FC, i turned over to the Einstein factor, i couldnt take too much of Sunday Night, pity it could have been a good show with it’s lineup, i loathe and detest Barcelona with a vengeance.

  12. ruawake, over the years theres only two journo’s i’ve ever come across that i’ve any time for, one became like a second dad to me and was a good man and a decent human being, Bob Whitington, the other is Nigel Hunt from the Sunday mail, Nigels been a friend since his cub reporter days and i trust him utterly, as for the rest i wouldnt give them a helping hand if they were in the gutter, they’re a lot of phiranas in a feeding frenzy.

  13. The fires are beyond understanding really… just horrific. Certainly it will be the only real story of the week.

    Makes the whole waiting for newspoll seem a bit… well… childish.

  15. The only people playing politics in a time of national crisis are those saying criticising Brown. You may not like it, ruawake or Vera, but with climate change the number of bushfires, their severity and the number of lives lost from them and other natural disasters is only going to go up.

    In 10, 20, 30 years, when we have them again and they’re worse we’ll be bitterly picking up the pieces and cursing Rudd and other short-term, narrow minded leaders. But for some reason you believe that because Rudd says something it’s going to happen. That’s not the case and your precious leader is going to have a lot to answer for.

  16. Grog, i get what you mean but being only human we’ll still wait with bated breath on Newspoll, i dont know how accurate it’ll be though with everyone absorbed by the bushfires, looks like Adelaide may have a problem next weekend with fairly bad conditions, i hope they’ve taken note at whats happened this weekend.

  17. Alan Reid may have been a nice man for all I know, but professionally he was a Packer hitman and Liberal Party stooge.

    I get ridiculed here every time I say this, but I think Michelle Grattan is the best journalist working in Australia today. She’s fair, moderate and judicious, she’s extremely well-informed, and she does her own legwork despite her 40 years of seniority.

  18. It’s an indictment on yourselves that when the warning signs are being shoved in your faces you clamour to defend the man who’s consigning this country to more of the same – and worse, and attack someone for pointing out the truth.

  19. [Grog, i get what you mean but being only human we’ll still wait with bated breath on Newspoll,]

    Oh Judith, I certainly will (we are all of us here tragics afterall).

    To be really cynical, you;d have to say the fires have snuffed out the oxygen in the opposition’s attack.

    Though when Turnbull was coming up with the following, you have to wonder how much oxygen was left anyway:
    [Mr Turnbull renewed his call for Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to sit down with him to discuss the package, saying the government should be negotiating with the coalition.

    “Why is Mr Rudd prepared to sit down and negotiate with the Greens and the independents, but he will not speak to the opposition?”]

    Gee I don’t know MT, maybe because they didn’t come out the day after the package was announced as declare they’d vote against it…
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/5306839/allocate-schools-money-need-turnbull/
    Dill.

  20. [I get ridiculed here every time I say this, but I think Michelle Grattan is the best journalist working in Australia today. ]

    by whom?

  21. The only way you can construe comments like “This is a reminder of why we need to act on climate change” as ‘political’ is if you believe the existence of climate change is a political issue as opposed to a scientific one.

    As far as I’m aware all the major political parties in Australia profess to accept the existence of climate change. So now it’s just you lot burying your head in the sand pretending that climate change and natural disasters are not in any way connected and because Rudd says a 5% target is dandy and fine it will someone stop this stuff from happening or getting worse.

  22. Oz, i believe in climate change but today isnt the time to try and make a point, people grieving their dead dont want to hear pollies waffling on about CC, Brown is out of step doing it today, theres plenty of time to make his point in the days to come and even more so to comment on the inquests, let people grieve without pointing fingers–except at the arsonists, they should be locked up for life with no hope of parole.

  23. Did journalists become partisan when their career path eventually led to being a “media advisor” for either side of politics?

    Grog, I understand what you are saying – but 20 people suicide each week, many of these deaths are preventable.

    While not trying to diminish the tradgedy of the appalling loss of life in the fires, in context they are not that large.

  24. [I get ridiculed here every time I say this, but I think Michelle Grattan is the best journalist working in Australia today.]
    She’s good at predicting too. As far as I recall she was the first one that said Howard was doomed in around March 2007.

  25. No one is pointing fingers Judith.

    And today IS the time to make the point. The deaths are horrific. And it’s because I don’t want any more unnecessary deaths or damage to homes that I will make that point.

    Agree on the arsonists.

  27. Channel 9 has just reported that Brian Naylor is missing…

    [I get ridiculed here every time I say this, but I think Michelle Grattan is the best journalist working in Australia today.]

    No ridicule from me Adam

  28. Bob Brown…

    how can someone be so… at a time like this…

    *shakes head in disbelief*

    Brown’s decision to shoot his mouth off about CC today was the wrong decision Oz and there is no excuses

  30. [While not trying to diminish the tradgedy of the appalling loss of life in the fires, in context they are not that large.]

    A bit harsh there ruawake. This is very large in any context.

  31. [next to the late great Matt shes someone to respect.]

    Yesterday I was in Borders and decided to flick again through the Latham Diaries (I was in the history section). Geez, did he hate Matt Price.

  32. No, Mary Hannah Wade, he should have toured around and sympathised with victims whilst at the same time working to implement a policy that will virtually ensure that Australia will see worse fires in the years ahead.

  33. Oz

    You can be completely right and horribly wrong at the same time. What Brown said was correct but now wasn’t the time to be trying to make points about climate change. It was cheap and unnecessary.

  36. Oz when your grieving your dead the last thing you need is someone pontificating about CC, this next week all everyone would want will be a shoulder to cry on and a helping hand, everytime they see a newscast or a paper they’ll be seeing the cars etc their loved ones died in or their burnt out homes, pollies can help by greasing the wheels and in the weeks to come making sure they dont hit snags with insurance companys being difficult, cant you understand Oz–they dont need it right now!!!

  37. BB had every right to say that CC will result in more days like today. Do people expect him to pretend any different? He’s not blaming any of the people who have suffered in these tragedies – he’s simply reminding us that we need to take heed of the signs around us. Perfectly reasonable and certainly not disrespectful to anyone. Sending that message today is right and proper.

  38. Michelle Grattan is probably the last journalist who has a clue what is happening. She like the late Alan Reid has developed contacts within both political parties.

    If she quotes “party sources” you can be sure they are not feeding her BS. Unlike some of the twits who call themselves “journalists” now.

    Adam. If you had ever had the chance to talk to Alan Reid in depth you may have a different opinion of him.

  39. Yes Diogenes we should wait till we all lull ourselves into a sense of first-world security before talking about climate change. The fact is, it’s only ever viewed in this country as a completely political debate when have more to lose than most other countries.

    It’s hypocritical to carp on about how sorry you feel for the victims but “The climate change ‘debate’ is for another time”.

    Yet when the people of the Maldives are sinking and it’s their homes being lost, it’s completely fair to use their loss and suffering as a political chess piece.

  41. Oz & Steve K:

    I’m afraid Judith and others are correct – Today was NOT the day to mention Climate Change at all, there is thing called a time and a place.

  42. RU, I will take your word for it, but I suggest you read his hatchet job book on Gorton, which he was ordered to write by Packer at the behest of the anti-Gorton faction of the Liberal Party. It was a disgrace.

  43. Grog, Matt was that rare thing an honest journo, he wrote it as he saw it, the rest of the Newsltd stable could do with his ethics

  44. Steve K

    Brown chose a poor time to say it – I’m pretty sure people that have lost family members don’t feel the same way about his comments as starry eyed Greens do

  46. Oz

    There have always been bushfires. As I said before, the worst one was in 1871 in the US. That one wasn’t due to CC. CC is only one of many factors which may or may not have contributed to this bushfire. To draw a direct link to CC in the context of this bushfire is disingenuous. There will be plenty of time for finger-pointing later.

  47. Frank, Then we disagree. I can’t help but compare this with a car crash where reporters can’t mention contributing factors (e.g. poor road maintenance, excessive speed, lack of decent street lighting etc) out of deference to the community and the way they feel.

  48. [There have always been bushfires. As I said before, the worst one was in 1871 in the US. That one wasn’t due to CC. CC is only one of many factors which may or may not have contributed to this bushfire. To draw a direct link to CC in the context of this bushfire is disingenuous. There will be plenty of time for finger-pointing later.]

    Especially if the Fire was caused by an arsonist.

  50. Oz-Steve K, as ive said before i believe in CC wholeheartedly,you have no idea the arguements i’ve got myself into over it, but there is a time and place and now’s not the time, if you’ve ever lost a loved one you’d understand.

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