Morgan: 56-44

UPDATE: This post was originally called “Newspoll minus three days”, but has been changed after Roy Morgan broke their normal fortnightly pattern by issuing results from last weekend’s face-to-face polling (i.e. before the stimulus package was announced). From a sample of 853, it shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 59.5-40.5 to 56-44. Labor’s primary vote is down four points to 46.5 per cent, the Coalition is up two to 38 per cent and the Greens are up half a point to 8 per cent.

The excitement of the past few days has quickly overloaded Tuesday’s thread, while adding real interest to the next set of opinion polls. Unless ACNielsen and Galaxy have something planned over the weekend, the next ones up are the regular Monday double of weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Newspoll. John Hewson tells Crikey he’s expecting an election later this year, presumably a double dissolution:

You’d have to think that the odds are narrowing on the possibility of an early election, towards the end of this year. At best, the Rudd Government’s second stimulatory package will just buy some time – simply delay the inevitable. As long as the global recession continues to deepen and, as a consequence, China’s growth continues to stall, the best Rudd can hope for is to hold up consumer spending by the cash handouts sufficient to avoid a technical recession – namely, two consecutive quarters of negative growth … Moreover, the ETS is to be introduced next year with all the scaremongering opportunities that carries for the major polluters. So why not go the people for a “mandate” to continue with the strategy, especially now that Turnbull has so clearly nailed his colours to the mast, becoming such a fixed target, from both outside and within?

Of course, there’s much here that might be contested, not to mention the lack of a double dissolution trigger at this stage. In brief:

• Possum dissects the electoral impact of the stimulus package here and here.

• Antony Green analyses the finalised federal redistribution boundaries for Western Australia.

• The Senate has amended legislation abolishing tax deductible political donations, which will instead be limited to donations from individuals rather than companies. Deductions applied for donations of up to $100 from individuals before the Howard government’s 2006 “reforms” jacked it up to $1500 and extended it to companies. The legislation as amended maintains the $1500 threshold.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,270 comments on “Morgan: 56-44”

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  1. [ Gusface
    Posted Monday, February 9, 2009 at 12:44 am | Permalink
    I just saw Order in the House, was Costello speaking in the parliament at like 4.30am?

    Sad wasnt it Bree- no more relevance,just a lonely voice howling at the moon ]

    [ Bree
    Posted Monday, February 9, 2009 at 12:45 am | Permalink
    You saw it too, Gusface. ]

    From what I hear,Costello has been doing this since,oh, November 2007

  2. Antony @ 1182

    Even without Group Ticket Voting, there’ll still be arking up over preferences like there still is in the lower house(s). Maybe less of it, though.


    If Bob Brown is allowed to question the bushfires as to why they occurred and whether or not it’s likely there’ll be more of them, then the terrorists have already won. You’re either with us or you’re against us.

  3. [Were there any Labor MPs there at 4.30am?]

    would you hang around ,while someone tried to metamorphose into a werewolf?

    labor people aint dumb-they excommunicated costello long long ago.

  4. [I just saw Order in the House, was Costello speaking in the parliament at like 4.30am?]
    No. He made his contribution at 6:28 PM the previous day.

  5. Frank i admit sometimes i cant understand their reasoning but there it is, years ago a judge in the supreme court made a hairline decision to disallow some crucial evidence in a case we were involved in, it really could have gone either way the line was so fine, we were devistated having gone through so much to reach that point, so were the professionals who got us there, they were gutted, while i was very bitter at the time i’ve looked back and i realise now that it was better that way than give the defence grounds to appeal and get perhaps a not guilty verdict, by that decision the crown pulled out rather than go ahead without the full evidence and they have the choice of recharging the accused later on, as time goes by new evidence comes up ie DNA etc.

  6. What a pathetic individual is Peter Costello.

    Imagine a politician of his former standing making speeches in the house at 4am.

    He could hold a front bench position in opposition today at the drop of a hat.

    He could’ve accepted the leadership of his party when it was presented on a velvet cushion in Nov 2007. Instead he spat the dummy, stamped his feet, rolled around on the floor and then pulled the old silent treatment – silent that is if you could block out the sound of aggressive thumb sucking.

    Now it looks like Cossie is considering a tilt at the leadership of his party. His behavior is far too erratic to be trusted with the prime ministership of this nation. He shows all of the symptoms of Latham’s disease and we know what a difficult problem that can be.

  7. [Imagine a politician of his former standing making speeches in the house at 4am.]
    He didn’t, his speech started at 6:28 PM on Tuesday:

    Page 87

    He got in early probably specifically so he didn’t have to hang around Parliament and talk sometime in the morning. While he was off sleeping, his colleagues were speaking.

    Costello is such a hypocrite, he says the package doesn’t have much for unemployed. Well he was calling unemployed and DSP recipients dole bludgers and the “bad back brigade”.

  8. [Imagine a politician of his former standing making speeches in the house at 4am.

    He didn’t, his speech started at 6:28 PM on Tuesday:]

    To me I’m sticking with the 4:30am line.

    Bree told me, so it must be true.

  9. As` expected the Government has received a boost in the latest Newspoll:

    Voters give a thumbs-up to Rudd cash handout

    THE Rudd Government’s economic management and $12 billion cash giveaway have been strongly endorsed and have given Labor the same big boost it got before the pre-Christmas $10 billion cash splash.

    According to the latest Newspoll survey, taken exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, primary vote support for Labor jumped five percentage points to 48 per cent – the same as in December – after the $42 billion economic stimulus package was announced last week.

    A large majority of those surveyed, 63 per cent, also think the Rudd Government is doing a good job managing the economy during the global financial crisis and only 33 per cent think the Coalition would do a better job.

    Labor’s primary vote jumped from 43 per cent to 48 per cent and the Coalition’s fell from 39per cent to 36 per cent.

    On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor leads the Coalition 58 per cent to 42 per cent – close to its record margin just after winning the election.

    After deciding to oppose the Government’s economic stimulus package in the Senate, Malcolm Turnbull has seen his personal support as Opposition Leader drop to a new low.

    According to the Newspoll survey, 57 per cent of voters believe the economic stimulus package, which includes $12 billion in short-term cash giveaways to boost retail spending, will be good for the economy. Almost half those surveyed, 48 per cent, believe they would be personally better off as a result of the package.

    The Government has argued that the $12 billion retail boost announced last week is required to “fill the gap” in spending between the slowing in economic growth now and the start of $30 billion in building projects such as school halls and libraries.

    Of those who thought they would get a cash payment, 29 per cent said they would spend all of it on goods and services.

    About a third, 34 per cent, said they would spend at least half, 15per cent said they would spend less than half and 20 per cent said they would not spend any on goods and services.

    Satisfaction with the way Mr Turnbull is doing his job was steady, although down one point to a new low of 44 per cent, but dissatisfaction rose seven points to a new high of 38 per cent.

    Last week, the Liberal leader said he thought his opposition to the spending measures would receive a “poisonous reception” and that the Liberals would be “hammered” in the polls. But he added that it was “the right thing to do”.

    In December, after the Government’s first $10 billion handout was announced, Labor and the Prime Minister received big lifts in support and Mr Turnbull’s support fell.

    Mr Rudd’s personal standing has been steady since the announcement of the latest package, with no change in the level of satisfaction in the way he is doing his job, still at 63 per cent, and with dissatisfaction at 26 per cent. On the question of who would be the better prime minister, Mr Rudd rose from 60 to 62 per cent, and Mr Turnbull fell from 22 to 20 per cent.

    The Government’s economic management is most strongly supported by Labor voters and younger people. High numbers of 18- to 34-year-olds and 35- to 49-year-olds – the ALP’s strongest areas demographically – believe they will be better off as a result of the package.

    People aged over 50, including pensioners and self-funded retirees who have been hit hard by losses in superannuation and investments, are the most opposed to the package.

    Mr Turnbull showed no sign yesterday of backing away from his opposition to the package.

    “The problem with the package is it is putting an absolutely unsustainable burden of debt on future generations,” the Liberal leader said on the Ten Network.

    “Think about this: we are going to have to look our children and their children in the eye and say: ‘We have put tens of billions, $200 billion of debt, probably more, on your shoulders, and we did it so we could send everyone in Australia a cheque for $950.’

    “This is not an effective stimulus. The payment, the cash splash of December, was an ineffective use of money as an economic stimulus.

    “It had some merit to it, of course, because it involved helping out the pensioners.”

  10. [Thanks. I see that that Hansard ended with the words ‘time expired’. Says it all really doesn’t it.]
    Ha! I’m glad you noticed that. I watched the speech live, and it was hilarious when he had to shut up and sit down mid sentence.

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