Morgan: 56-44

UPDATE: This post was originally called “Newspoll minus three days”, but has been changed after Roy Morgan broke their normal fortnightly pattern by issuing results from last weekend’s face-to-face polling (i.e. before the stimulus package was announced). From a sample of 853, it shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 59.5-40.5 to 56-44. Labor’s primary vote is down four points to 46.5 per cent, the Coalition is up two to 38 per cent and the Greens are up half a point to 8 per cent.

The excitement of the past few days has quickly overloaded Tuesday’s thread, while adding real interest to the next set of opinion polls. Unless ACNielsen and Galaxy have something planned over the weekend, the next ones up are the regular Monday double of weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Newspoll. John Hewson tells Crikey he’s expecting an election later this year, presumably a double dissolution:

You’d have to think that the odds are narrowing on the possibility of an early election, towards the end of this year. At best, the Rudd Government’s second stimulatory package will just buy some time – simply delay the inevitable. As long as the global recession continues to deepen and, as a consequence, China’s growth continues to stall, the best Rudd can hope for is to hold up consumer spending by the cash handouts sufficient to avoid a technical recession – namely, two consecutive quarters of negative growth … Moreover, the ETS is to be introduced next year with all the scaremongering opportunities that carries for the major polluters. So why not go the people for a “mandate” to continue with the strategy, especially now that Turnbull has so clearly nailed his colours to the mast, becoming such a fixed target, from both outside and within?

Of course, there’s much here that might be contested, not to mention the lack of a double dissolution trigger at this stage. In brief:

• Possum dissects the electoral impact of the stimulus package here and here.

• Antony Green analyses the finalised federal redistribution boundaries for Western Australia.

• The Senate has amended legislation abolishing tax deductible political donations, which will instead be limited to donations from individuals rather than companies. Deductions applied for donations of up to $100 from individuals before the Howard government’s 2006 “reforms” jacked it up to $1500 and extended it to companies. The legislation as amended maintains the $1500 threshold.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,270 comments on “Morgan: 56-44”

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  1. It’s good to grace the new thread first.

    [“What’s the position of Julie Bishop? I mean she’s the Dusty Springfield of Australian politics,” he told ABC television.]

    #1744 – Groggy, a 60s revival? aided and abetted by the Australian Cricket Team, who is doing a very impression of that super group from the 60s called The Easybeats. Friday On My Mind indeed, Julie seems to nag everybody these days.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvcP58TqBq0

  3. [By any stretch, the Coalition’s severe cuts in the 1996/1997 budgets did not result in lower growth and higher unemployment -]
    Before that budget the economy had been growing for 4 consecutive years! There was no reason to cut the budget then, it would’ve gone into surplus just 18 months later than it did if there were no cuts at all.
    [The GST did not increase unemployment and reduce growth.]
    Where did I say it did? Plus, you are ignoring that the GST was compensated for, especially for high income earners.
    [Extending it to all goods and services would dramatically reduce complexity and result in higher revenues for the states.]
    And result in a drop in consumption because it would lead to higher prices. If the government compensated for it, then they would just go into further debt.

  4. [ “What’s the position of Julie Bishop? I mean she’s the Dusty Springfield of Australian politics,” he told ABC television.

    “She says ‘sit and wait’. Here she is, wishing and hoping and praying and thinking.]

    And Ironically the former member for Stirling, Eoin Cameron is a Dusty DEvotee and was consulted for the recent musical on her life 🙂

  5. Regarding the 1996-97 budget cuts – as a matter of fact there was a very sharp mini-recession that hit the ACT at that time. Several people I knew wound up with negative equity in their homes. National growth was still OK overall thanks to Qld and WA, but there was a dip.

  6. TF – With all this talk of Dusty and Gough it gives one pause for thinking about the average age of parliamentarians…

    Wonder how many have an ipod like Obama? Wonder how many know what an ipod is…

  7. [Of course, there’s much here that might be contested, not to mention the lack of a double dissolution trigger at this stage.]
    The Carbon trading scheme could become a double dissolution trigger if the Government tries to get it through this year. Greenxenofielding could block it for all sorts of reasons.

  8. For once I think Hewson is right. If the stimulus succeeds in avoiding a technical recession that would be a bloody miracle in the international context and Rudd could well go to the people for a mandate for his handling of the GFC and the GCCC (global climate change crisis, my new acronym). He’d get an increased majoriy. It doesn’t need to be a DD, because Labor would gain seats in the Senate and have no further trouble from that quarter.

  11. Turnbull must be praying the the stimulus legislation gets passed next week. In 3 months time he will be having nightmares about a DD – when every economic ill and every job loss will be blamed on him.

    Even if he does a double back flip with pike and passes the legislation he will still be blamed for every economic ill and every job loss, for delaying the stimulus.

  12. Interest rates can’t drop too much lower or nobody will bother lending their money. Speaking as a net lender, if rates drop to say 1%, I’d take my money out of the bank and buy something that would gain value faster – slaves, perhaps.

  13. The following post has a calculation of no surprise results.

    Beneficiaries of a DD include the ALP and the Greens overall.

    Disbeneficiaries of a DD include the Coalition and Senators Ludlam and Fielding.

    Bring on the DD (not that I have anything against Senator Ludlam).

  14. #12 AIC
    I thought the banks earned about the same margin on lending regardless of the rates, but lower rates means more people borrowing so more profit for the banks.

  15. Adam,

    Screaming banshees flailing their legs and arms admonishingly as the economy goes over a cliff in a ball of fire are always a good investment at this time of the economic cycle.

    They are cheap and they are plentiful.

  17. does Fielding go up for election in 2010 ? i’ve never paid much attention to him before yesterday–he was just part of the noise in the background, what a pratt he’s turned out to be!

  19. Fielding`s term expires on the 30th of June 2011 and so his seat will be up for election in the financial year 2010/11 unless there is a DD.

  21. America’s Financial Assistence package, note the permanent tax cut of $35 billion dollar and for people who does not paid tax, there is a cash handout

    A question has to be asked, why the ALP preferred a cash handout rather than tax cuts proposed by Obama, Liberals and Xenophone

    Is it because they got a bounce from the last handout? If that is the case, we might get another handout in April

    http://obama.3cdn.net/8335008b3be0e6391e_foi8mve29.pdf

    something to

    Barack Obama’s Plan to Stimulate the Economy and Protect American Families
    • Provide an immediate $250 tax cut for workers and their families.
    • Provide an immediate, temporary $250 bonus to seniors in their Social Security
    • checks.
    • Provide an additional $250 tax cut to workers and an additional $250 to seniors if
    • the economy continues to worsen
    • Provide relief to homeowners hit by the housing crisis.
    • Provide aid to states hardest-hit by the housing crisis to avoid a slash in services.
    • Extend and expand Unemployment Insurance.

    I. PROVIDE AN IMMEDIATE TAX CUT FOR WORKERS & THEIR FAMILIES
    Barack Obama believes we must restore fairness to the tax code. Months ago, recognizing the squeeze
    on working people in this country and the economic difficulties they were confronting, Obama proposed
    tax relief of up to $500 for 150 million workers. This refundable income tax credit will provide direct
    relief to American workers facing the regressive payroll tax system, offsetting the payroll tax on the first
    $8,100 of earnings while preserving the important principle of a dedicated revenue source for Social
    Security. The economy has weakened significantly. Obama believes we cannot wait until he becomes
    president to give workers the tax relief they need. He believes we should make half of the tax credit,
    $250 per worker, available immediately in order to quickly get money into the pockets of Americans.
    This will help maintain consumer spending, strengthen the economy and ease the squeeze so many
    Americans are currently experiencing. If there is a three-month cumulative decline in employment,
    Obama believes we should immediately provide the remaining portion of that tax credit, an additional
    $250 per worker. Stimulus: $35 billion. Additional Reserve: $35 billion.
    II. PROVIDE AN IMMEDIATE SUPPLEMENT TO SOCIAL SECURITY FOR LOW- AND
    MIDDLE-INCOME SENIORS
    Research suggests that older Americans are particularly likely to spend rather than save additional
    money they receive. Obama understands that seniors living on fixed incomes are squeezed by higher
    prices. Obama is calling for providing middle- and low-income seniors – who would not benefit from
    the workers’ tax credit – an immediate, one-time $250 supplement to their Social Security benefit. And
    if there is a three-month cumulative decline in employment an additional temporary supplement of $250
    per Social Security beneficiary should be provided. These payments would not alter the Social Security
    program and would not use revenue from the Social Security trust funds. This would provide immediate
    consumer spending in a feasible way. By piggy-backing on the Social Security Administration’s highly
    efficient payment system, these supplemental payments will stimulate consumer spending in the most
    rapid way possible. Stimulus: $10 billion. Additional Reserve: $10 billion.
    III. ESTABLISH A $10 BILLION FUND TO HELP FAMILIES AVOID FORECL

  24. [… these supplemental payments will stimulate consumer spending in the most
    rapid way possible.]

    Ha ha ha dovif – you should read what you cut and paste. 😛

  26. No 3

    ShowsOn, the introduction of the GST did result in one quarter of negative growth, but the economy quickly rebounded.

  27. No 24

    ruawake, the US economy is unlikely to benefit from these handouts in any meaningful way. The US requires massive budget consolidation and taxation increases to restore finances to health and retire debt.

  30. [America’s Financial Assistence package, note the permanent tax cut of $35 billion]
    In terms of GDP, this is equal to about AUD$3 billion.

    In contrast to this, the Australian government’s package will be spending $12.7 billion over the next 3 years, including $11 billion this financial year alone.
    [ShowsOn, the introduction of the GST did result in one quarter of negative growth, but the economy quickly rebounded.]
    And the Government compensated – rich people mainly – for the GST. If you want to unilaterally put GST on everything that currently doesn’t have GST, you’d have to compensate people for the same amount. If you don’t, consumption will drop because over all purchasing power will go down.
    [The US requires massive budget consolidation and taxation increases to restore finances to health and retire debt.]
    Sure, but it doesn’t require taxes increases AT THIS TIME. Unless you want it to stay in recession for a decade.

  31. It is alleged, by some, that Mr Costello did not want to introduce legislation making cartel behaviour a criminal offence because of the bit of bother Dick had.

  32. Ruawake

    Yeah quickly but only for a short time, that is why in America most money is spend in Tax cuts, which have long term effect!!!! Will increase jobs…. which is important

    That is why in Australia we had a package in November and we needed a pack by March, we will probably get one in July, then another in November, and like William said, the ALP will call a election before the economy worsens

    The big question is the ALP is doing what is good for the ALP and not Australia, The popular thing to do would be to give people cash, which tends to be pretty popular. Magabe give people cash to vote for him too, if the ALP give me $10,000, I am happy to vote for them too. As long as I am not charged with corruption.

  33. actually the July and November handouts is already in legislation …. that is the $200 billion fund in case the economy worsensd

  34. No 30

    [And the Government compensated – rich people mainly – for the GST.]

    Rubbish. There was compensation in the form of welfare payments as well as commensurate reductions in income tax.

    [Sure, but it doesn’t require taxes increases AT THIS TIME. Unless you want it to stay in recession for a decade.]

    Tell that to Barack Obama – he is increasing taxes for people earning over $200,000.

  35. [Yeah quickly but only for a short time,]
    That is the whole POINT of a stimulus package. You want to stimulate the economy as a substitute for the economy stimulating itself. You don’t want to add permanent tax cuts that a) take a long time to have an impact and b) place an ongoing burden on the budget. That defeats the purpose of a stimulus package.

  36. Gotta say Bernard Keane has been writing great stuff of late:
    http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20090206-Egos-stimulated-but-what-about-the-national-interest-.html

    [The politicking continued in the Senate committee considering the package. The efforts of Coalition MPs in committee last night were laughable. Eric Abetz spent some time trying to determine whether the printer who produced the package documentation had to work overnight. Ken Henry noted that it had been a very long time since anything sent to the printer hadn’t required overtime, and he wasn’t referring just to life under Rudd. Barnaby Joyce, who appears to be wholly economically illiterate, was asking about the country going trillions of dollars into debt. Treasury officials were unflustered even as Coalition senators baited them. ]

  37. ok,ok, Fielding is a bluddy brainless idiot—is that better 🙂 and if William bans me for calling a pollie names i’ll come and haunt you as well as lurk!!!

  38. dovif

    Surely you know that the legislation is to increase the limit on Govt bonds to $200 billion.

    Given that $60 billion in bonds were on issue when Costello was Treasurer your previous comment is mischievious, wrong or a delusion. 😉

  39. In breaking news, Dovif @ 32 discovers that a politician is acting politically. “This never happened under Howard he says sternly”……..

  40. [Rubbish. There was compensation in the form of welfare payments as well as commensurate reductions in income tax.]
    Wrong. The GST compensation was skewed far in favour of people who didn’t really need it. A single person earning $20,000 a year AFTER TAX got $5 compensation a week, a single person earning $75,000 a year AFTER TAX got $70 a week.
    [Tell that to Barack Obama – he is increasing taxes for people earning over $200,000.]
    So that he can cut taxes for the other 95% of the U.S. population.

    Sometimes what is best for everyone is what is worse for a few. Deal with it.

  41. Fielding wants $4bil spent on an unemployment scheme, mind you he has no details but wants the treasury to work it out and put it together for him

  42. Shows on

    That is the difference between the Labor stimulus package and the Obama stimulus package. The ALP is hoping that if they patch things up for the short term, like William says, they might go into the next election, while the economy is not in disaster mode. It will cost us more money, the money spend will have less lasting effect, but the ALP might still be in power. That is why they are rejecting the tax cuts, it has slow start off effect, but in the long one, it will increase permanent spending in the economy and confidence. ie get us out of the recession. But the economy might look bad when the ALP go to the polls

    While Obama have 4 years before the next election, they can take a long term plan, and make sure America recovers.

  44. He allready was once, told a sad story of how he hit hard times in 1992 . I thought Nelson had returned there for a while 🙂

  45. [The ALP is hoping that if they patch things up for the short term, like William says, they might go into the next election, while the economy is not in disaster mode.]
    That’s because we have a PROBLEM in the SHORT TERM, so that is where we need a solution.

    We don’t NEED a stimulus package that only starts fully working 3,4, or 5 years from now, because our economy, and the world economy will probably be growing strongly by then. We need a stimulus package that has its greatest effect within the next 18 months.
    [That is why they are rejecting the tax cuts, it has slow start off effect, but in the long one, it will increase permanent spending in the economy and confidence.]
    1) There are already tax cuts legislated that come into effect on July 1st
    2) Tax cuts don’t stimulate the economy as quickly as immediate one off lump sum payments
    [While Obama have 4 years before the next election, they can take a long term plan, and make sure America recovers.]
    He is actually doing BOTH, tax cuts and one off payments (read your own copypasta).

  48. Shows on

    This is an old subject, taxes was lowered for everyone, but since people who are on low income pay less tax, it favoured the rich, however the low income rebate and tax free threshold was increased significantly

    There was also a payment for the elderly, more middle class benefits, dole was increased slightly, that is how the tax proceed was used to help the poorer

  49. No 45

    ShowsOn, despite your litany of aggressive responses, a short term solution often has long term consequences.

    $118 billion of deficit means higher taxes, higher unemployment and lower economic growth for future generations. Is minuscule short term gain worth the extremely costly burden it imposes? I don’t think so.

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