Presidential election minus 17 days

Two states have moved to the McCain column on my weighted aggregates: Ohio, where polling for McCain remains surprisingly strong, and West Virginia, where a 50-42 result from Public Policy Polling puts the state back where it should probably have been all along. Obama’s lead in North Dakota is largely based on what was probably a rogue poll. For all that, Obama retains leads of over 5 per cent in enough states to win the election (note that the table below will be updated as new polls become available, so the aforementioned might be out of date at the time you read this).

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 56.0 37.0 3215 17
Maine 54.8 38.9 2185 4
Washington 55.1 40.5 2149 11
Iowa 54.0 39.7 1160 7
Minnesota 53.4 40.5 3177 10
Wisconsin 52.2 39.5 3567 10
Pennsylvania 52.7 40.3 3604 21
New Hampshire 53.3 42.1 3360 4
Ohio 51.8 40.8 3024 20
Virginia 51.5 43.1 3324 13
New Mexico 50.1 42.0 2427 5
Colorado 51.9 45.7 3038 9
North Carolina 50.7 45.5 4769 15
Nevada 49.5 45.4 3221 5
Indiana 48.8 45.0 3128 11
Missouri 49.2 45.4 3063 11
North Dakota 45.8 43.6 1206 3
Florida 46.6 45.9 3420 27
Montana 45.5 47.5 2003 3
Georgia 45.6 49.5 3533 15
West Virginia 43.0 50.0 3022 5
Others – – – 175 137
RCP/Total 50.2 42.8 – 378 160

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

925 comments on “Presidential election minus 17 days”

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  1. Ok no debates on 1975 from this corner, I was recovering from Watergate at that time ……

    On Fraser’s actions of today in 2008, GOOD on him 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Can we have a URL please??? 🙂 thanks

  2. Julie

    Do you think this “Joe the plumber” crap is assisting McCain in Ohio? I must admit I’m getting a bit sick of hearing about it myself.

  3. [Do you think this “Joe the plumber” crap is assisting McCain in Ohio? I must admit I’m getting a bit sick of hearing about it myself.]
    I thought it was killed off when they found out he owes back taxes, isn’t a registered plumber, and earns under $250,000 a year, so he would be better off on Obama’s tax plan.

    Now they’ve moved on to the Todd Palin the Hunter and Fisher argument, in which he proposes that core American values are hunting and fishing:
    http://www.eschatonblog.com/2008_10_19_archive.html#1494430979794468107

  4. Darn, I’ve no bloody idea …… I’ve ignored it all myself; meaning that any article or reference therein, I’ve went out of my way to avoid it …..

  6. I have to say that I find it a bit unsettling that a bloke can’t ask an election candidate a tough question these days without being descended upon by an international network of partisan attack dogs.

  7. Americans come November 4th will have to decide whether they are still pro-country, Pro-life, Pro-Gun and Pro-Family.

    The leftist Liberal agenda with the prospect if the polls are correct of getting a supermajority in both the Executive Branch(Presidency) and the Legislative (Congress).
    The polls are so bad for the Republicans at the moment that in the Senate they may not even have the numbers after November to filibuster. This could lead to the third and final branch of Government the Judicary to see the appointment of more Liberals to the Supreme Court. There decision will make even Wade vs Roe tame in comparsion.

    Americans i live in a supermajority leftist Liberal country Australia will Labor-Liberal-and Green all pandering to the chattering classes of the Liberal elite with only the small National Party trying to stand up to Conservative values with very limited media coverage. Without the USA retaining at least some Conservative values I’ll have nothing to look for to offer me hope and inspiration down under.

  8. People in glass houses…

    [GOP voter registration fraud case leads to arrest

    The owner of a firm that the California Republican Party hired to register tens of thousands of voters this year was arrested in Ontario late last night on suspicion of voter registration fraud.

    State and local investigators allege that Mark Jacoby fraudulently registered himself to vote at a childhood California address where he no longer lives so he would appear to meet the legal requirement that signature gatherers be eligible to vote in California.

    Jacoby’s arrest by state investigators and the Ontario Police Department comes after dozens of voters said they were duped into registering as Republicans by his firm, Young Political Majors, or YPM. The voters said YPM tricked them by saying they were signing a petition to toughen penalties against child molesters. The firm was paid $7 to $12 for every Californian it registered as a member of the GOP.]

    http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-fraud20-2008oct20,0,3842357.story

  9. [Americans come November 4th will have to decide whether they are still pro-country, Pro-life, Pro-Gun and Pro-Family.]
    What about Pro-stitute?
    [The leftist Liberal agenda with the prospect if the polls are correct of getting a supermajority in both the Executive Branch(Presidency) and the Legislative (Congress).]
    If that’s what the U.S. people vote for, then that’s what the U.S. people vote for. Voters are never wrong.
    [The polls are so bad for the Republicans at the moment that in the Senate they may not even have the numbers after November to filibuster. ]
    Why do you see this as a problem? Plus, in all likelihood Lieberman is going to become a Republican after the election anyway.
    [This could lead to the third and final branch of Government the Judicary to see the appointment of more Liberals to the Supreme Court.]
    Well, Bush appointed two conservatives there, so why can’t a liberal President appoint some liberals to balance things out?
    [There decision will make even Wade vs Roe tame in comparsion.]
    Roe V Wade was tame, it found that there is an implied right to privacy in the constitution, including the right of people to do what they like to their own bodies.
    [Without the USA retaining at least some Conservative values I’ll have nothing to look for to offer me hope and inspiration down under.]
    Good, because the economic policies the U.S. has pursued over the last eight years has resulted in economic ruin. So they aren’t inspirational.

  12. Americans who cherish the right to bear arms beware.

    The Howard Liberal Government in 1996 introduced the toughest gun laws in Australia that infringed that right. I remember Liberals in the United States at the time appauded the Howard Australian Government in rallies in DC.

    A supermajority Democrat victory with the most Liberal President perhaps since JFK who was hamstrung somewhat by a narrow victory against Nixon the US could be heading down the same path as Australia some 12 years later.

    Only the then NSW National Party leader Ian Armstrong stood up for gunowners rights the silence was deafening from all parties in Australia. When such Liberal treachery happens its very hard to remove.

  14. [The Howard Liberal Government in 1996 introduced the toughest gun laws in Australia that infringed that right. ]
    MAKE MORE SENSE. The U.S. constitution does not apply to Australians. There is no right to guns in the Australian constitution.
    [Only the then NSW National Party leader Ian Armstrong stood up for gunowners rights the silence was deafening from all parties in Australia.]
    I’ve heard people are allowed to own as many guns as they want in Iraq, why don’t you move there?

  15. I think the attitude of multiple Australian governments to gun ownership has something to do with Australia being a democracy. The overwhelming majority of Australians back gun control. When we looked back on the Howard eras achievements after he lost the election (it didn’t take long), I distinctly recall unanimous support for his gun control laws being the most positive thing Howie did.

  16. [I distinctly recall unanimous support for his gun control laws being the most positive thing Howie did.]
    That’s the best thing I can remember.

    Oh, and giving one billion dollars worth of aid to Indonesia after the tsunami. I’m sure Howard doing that drove some conservatives insane.

  17. The cost of Living in Australia has skyrocked under both (Liberal) Labor and Liberal Governments with taxes on just about everything. When I travel to the United States i’m so surprised by how cheap things are allthough the price varies depending on different state VATs.

    Americans are so lucky particularly in regard to fuel, alcohol and cigarettes compared to Australia. I remember as a young teenager in Queensland how cheap cigarettes were under the National Party because we had no tobacco tax now its daylight robbery.

    A supermajority Liberal Democratic victory could mean increase taxes and charges on everything for the American people and the cost of living will rise considerably for god sake don’t become another Australia.

  18. Colin Powell’s endorsement of Obama has really got the Repug blogs going and split them. The moderates say good on him and say he’s said what a lot of them were thinking. The extreme right have disowned him, labelled him a traitor, unAmerican etc etc. It’s been a great wedge at a time when they really didn’t need one. Newt Gingrich said:
    [“What that just did in one sound bite… is it eliminated the experience argument.” ]

  19. [The cost of Living in Australia has skyrocked under both (Liberal) Labor and Liberal Governments with taxes on just about everything.]
    Well let’s be fair here. It was the LIBERALS and the NATIONALS who voted for the G.S.T. Labor opposed it. Go check Hansard if you don’t believe me.
    [Americans are so lucky particularly in regard to fuel, alcohol and cigarettes compared to Australia.]
    No, IN THIS REGARD, they are stupid. They don’t tax things enough, then complain with their budget is half a trillion in debt.
    [I remember as a young teenager in Queensland how cheap cigarettes were under the National Party because we had no tobacco tax now its daylight robbery.]
    Have you ever thought of WHY tobacco products are taxed? I’ll give you a one word clue “cancer”.

  20. Paul @ 107,

    [
    This could lead to the third and final branch of Government the Judicary to see the appointment of more Liberals to the Supreme Court.
    ]

    NOTHING at all wrong with this. What goes around comes around, i.e the swing of the pendulum eventually goes left, it doesn’t always stay right. Get used to it 😉

  22. Paul Nash

    In the words of Malcolm Fraser in the Melbourne Age this morning:

    [An Obama presidency gives hope that the US will again be a force for good in the world]

    Couldn’t have said it better myself.

  23. Showson @ 119

    Your rebuttal at me over tobacco products being taxed because of “cancer”

    Confirms exactly what is wrong with the elite Liberal agenda thats being forced down our throat. Liberals are obsessed with Health and Education instead of some of the more productive modes of our economy.

    Theres no point having the most educated and healthier workforce if theres no jobs for people to get thats why spending on infrastructure is more important that Health and education.

    As pink floyd says; “we don’t need no education we don’t need no forced control”
    “all and all its just another brick in the wall”

    If I choose to smoke i don’t need no trendy health professionals lobbying the Government to tax cigarettes sky high so i’ll be encouraged to give up.

    This is just more Liberal social engineering.

    Don’t you remember Margaret Thatcher Conservative Prime-Minister of the United Kingdom 1979-1990 famous saying “Theres no such thing as society”

  27. [Liberals are obsessed with Health and Education instead of some of the more productive modes of our economy.]
    WHAT!? Are you saying that dead, sick and people who can’t read and write are productive? 😀
    [As pink floyd says; “we don’t need no education we don’t need no forced control”
    “all and all its just another brick in the wall”]
    LOL! And who informs your infrastructure theory? Led Zepplin? Let me guess, your outlook on energy policy was determined by a critical analysis of AC/DC’s albums?
    [If I choose to smoke i don’t need no trendy health professionals lobbying the Government to tax cigarettes sky high so i’ll be encouraged to give up.]
    We agree on this. PLEASE for MY sake keep on smoking. Smoke 100 packs a day for all I care. But if you ever get cancer, promise me that you won’t use a public hospital that I helped pay for, or visit any doctor who studied in Australia who my taxes helped educate.
    [Don’t you remember Margaret Thatcher Conservative Prime-Minister of the United Kingdom 1979-1990 famous saying “Theres no such thing as society”]
    Yes I remember this moronic statement from a moronic Prime Minister. I didn’t need you to remind me. If it wasn’t for her, apartheid in South Africa would’ve ended a decade sooner.

  28. [The quality of Young Liberal blog training seems to have declined since Generic Person did the course.]
    P.N. is an agrarian socialist, i.e. a member of the Nationals.

  29. [More W.Va. voters say machines are switching votes
    In six cases, Democratic votes flipped to GOP

    WINFIELD, W.Va. — Three Putnam County voters say electronic voting machines changed their votes from Democrats to Republicans when they cast early ballots last week. This is the second West Virginia county where voters have reported this problem. Last week, three voters in Jackson County told The Charleston Gazette their electronic vote for “Barack Obama” kept flipping to “John McCain”.

    This is the second West Virginia county where voters have reported this problem. Last week, three voters in Jackson County told The Charleston Gazette their electronic vote for “Barack Obama” kept flipping to “John McCain”.

    In both counties, Republicans are responsible for overseeing elections. Both county clerks said the problem is isolated.

    They also blamed voters for not being more careful.

    “People make mistakes more than machines,” said Jackson County Clerk Jeff Waybright.

    Shelba Ketchum, a 69-year-old nurse retired from Thomas Memorial Hospital, described what happened Friday at the Putnam County Courthouse in Winfield.

    “I pushed buttons and they all came up Republican,” she said. “I hit Obama and it switched to McCain. I am really concerned about that. If McCain wins, there was something wrong with the machines.

    “I asked them for a printout of my votes,” Ketchum said. “But they said it was in the machine and I could not get it. I did not feel right when I left the courthouse. My son felt the same way.

    “I heard from some other people they also had trouble. But no one in there knew how to fix it,” said Ketchum, who is not related to Menis Ketchum, a Democratic Supreme Court candidate.

    Ketchum’s son, Chris, said he had the same problem. And Bobbi Oates of Scott Depot said her vote for incumbent Democratic Sen. John D. Rockefeller was switched to GOP opponent Jay Wolfe.

    “I touched the one I wanted, Rockefeller, and the machine put a checkmark on the Republican instead,” Oates said of her experience Thursday.

    She said she caught the mistake, called over a worker in the county clerk’s office and was able to correct her vote. But she worries other voters may not catch such a mistake.

    When asked if she is sure she touched the box for Rockefeller, she said, “I’m absolutely positive.”

    Putnam County Clerk Brian Wood said on Saturday that he is upset there are “so many negative stories out there and not enough positive ones. We want people to vote. People need to know the facts.

    “But we haven’t had any major issues. We try to explain to voters how the machines work then they come in,” Wood said.

    In Putnam County, early voters have the option of asking for either touch-screen machines or optical scan ballots — paper ballots on which people mark in their election choices.

    Wood said some voters might not realize that touch-screen voting machines may take a few seconds to record their choices.]

    http://wvgazette.com/News/200810180251

  30. Paul, don’t forget that Pink Floyd also says: “Money/It’s a hit/Don’t give me that do-goody-good bullshit”. Not to mention: “I know a mouse and he hasn’t got a house/I don’t know why/I call him Gerald”.

  32. This may somewhat help explain Obama’s current leads in Florida and Virigina:

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/VA_and_FL_state_parties_clashing_with_McCain.html

    [VA and FL state parties clashing with McCain

    There are important stories in regional papers today that touch on something that has been happening behind closed doors and is now starting to become public: clashing between state parties and the McCain campaign in two key states.

    In Florida, the differences between Gov. Charlie Crist’s state party and the McCain campaign have for weeks been an open secret among the political class.

    Now comes word, via the St. Pete Times’ Adam Smith, that the Florida GOP is holding back some of its money for the next cycle.

    “State party officials announced to their state executive committee Saturday that they expect to carry over at least $2 million into 2009, rather than spend all their money on this election.”

    The news came on the same day that Crist was explaining why he hadn’t appeared in any ads for McCain in the state.

    ”I haven’t been asked,” Crist explained to the Miami Herald’s Mary Ellen Klas.

    Up I-95, in Virginia, it isn’t much better.

    Party Chairman Jeff Frederick was rebuked by McCain for likening Obama to Osama bin Laden last week. And when McCain was in Frederick’s backyard for a rally in Prince William County yesterday — he’s also a state legislator — the chairman had no role in the program.

    But the problem in Virginia began well before Frederick’s gaffe. Veteran Virginia Republicans don’t think much of McCain’s organization and were dumbfounded as to why it took them so long to bring the candidate and his running mate back into the state. Likewise, McCain aides are annoyed at what they see as provincialism among Virginia Republicans and some of Frederick’s off-message comments about the campaign.

    To wit, the Richmond Times-Dispatch’s Jeff E. Schapiro’s Sunday column:

    “The chatter over Frederick’s tense relationship with McCain also continues. Frederick’s apparent frustrations with McCain seem to reflect those of conservatives in general. The feelings must be mutual.

    “In an e-mail to Frederick after the latest dust-up, the McCain team warned, ‘Come on, man, this {expletive} has got to stop.'”]

  33. William Bowe said:

    “I have to say that I find it a bit unsettling that a bloke can’t ask an election candidate a tough question these days without being descended upon by an international network of partisan attack dogs.”

    I just thought Obama’s answer was weak. It should have been; how do you propose we pay for the wars that have been costing us over 200 billion a year for the last 5 years.

  34. Paul @ 117,

    [
    Paul Nash
    Posted Monday, October 20, 2008 at 12:35 pm | Permalink
    The cost of Living in Australia has skyrocked under both (Liberal) Labor and Liberal Governments with taxes on just about everything. When I travel to the United States i’m so surprised by how cheap things are allthough the price varies depending on different state VATs.
    ]

    Yes as noted, price varies from one place to the next. Some states apply way more tax than others.

    In general though, the main reason that you perceive things as cheaper is because the US doesn’t have to fund all of the helping programs that are available in Australia. I won’t itemize them here, but I’m talking about the various things that are controlled and issued through either Centrelink and/or Medicare. If Obama can get a universal health care proposal (for example) across the board within the potential term limits that he is subject to (max 8 years, 2 terms) you can bet that won’t come cheap. I don’t know how they plan on affording that as I’ve no idea what Iraq is costing each day and I don’t think that just bringing troops home and ending US committment there will be enough. I will be interested to see how they cost that once they have a plan to put forth. Universal health care is badly needed there. As an example, Canada has a system very similar, if not identical to the Aussies, and I am sure that Canadian taxes aren’t dirt cheap in comparison 😉 …

    Also, too, you will find that the quality isn’t necessarily as good as ours here in Oz either. This difference is MOST notable with food and groceries. The quality of the identical cut of meat at a US grocery store compared to an Aussie one (quality here, not price) is [if 10 is the best and 0 the worst] is a 4 compared to an Aussie 8 at best, you easily see many 3/9 comparisons. I shopped for food in US markets for the better part of 30+ years {counting only those as an adult where I did my own shopping} compared to 4+ here, but I could immediately see the difference. You pay MORE per unit of weight for something that is only half the quality at best …….

    The grass is most definitely NOT greener on the other side of the fence, part of the reason I left the USA.

  36. [and back up it goes…

    Reuters/CSpan/Zogby national tracking poll:]

    Are Zogby still weighting their tracking poll based on the 2004 party turn out (which had only a very small lead for the Democrats?)

    The Democrats have increased their registration lead by 2 million in the last 4 years, I just can’t see how the turn out will be the same this year as in 2004.

  37. [Are Zogby still weighting their tracking poll based on the 2004 party turn out (which had only a very small lead for the Democrats?)]

    Yes. I’ve seen a few blogs putting Rasmussens internals (a 6%+ Democrat party ID advantage) on a Zogby poll about a week ago and it added around 3 points to Obama.

  38. Nicely said, Juliem. Another reason why things are so “cheap” in the US is that labour tends to be inexpensive. Workers in the service industry are especially low paid – which is why waiting staff depend on tips.

    Also, there’s a whole pool of “undocumented workers” in the US that can be drawn upon to keep costs down, in everything from meat packing to construction.

  39. [Also, there’s a whole pool of “undocumented workers” in the US that can be drawn upon to keep costs down, in everything from meat packing to construction.]
    I guess that explains why McCain supported “comprehensive immigration reform”, big business Republicans told him to.

  42. More details on newspaper endorsements in the election …..

    [
    What’s startling is when you look at that list of large papers that have backed Obama. It’s a who’s who of the dominant papers in nearly every giant metro: Boston, New York, both papers in Chicago, Cleveland, Philly, Pittsburgh, D.C., San Francisco, Sacramento, Atlanta, both papers in L.A., Detroit, both papers in Seattle, Portland, Miami, Orlando, Raleigh, Buffalo and more. McCain’s only clear wins are in Columbus and San Diego, and barely managing a split in Texas, of all places. It’s a veritable landslide.

    But even more revealing, Obama has an even wider lead in those that have switched sides. That flipflop number is now close to 25, with McCain only picking up one paper from the Kerry side in 2004 (the Daily Press in Newport News, Va.)

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/greg-mitchell/why-obamas-shocking-lands_b_136010.html
    ]

  43. Juliem, the first paragraph is interesting because I remember reading an article not that long ago pointing out that America is country of small towns. I don’t remember the exact figures (Some cute comparison like 100 cities of 250,000 or > but 250,000 with 10,000 or <. I dunno if that adds up, but something like that.) but I do remember that more than 50% of the US population lives in towns of less than 25,000 or rural areas.

  44. McCain was over performinng during the post Convention Palin boom, he is now under performing. It is likely that he will make up ground in the remaining fortnight.

  45. [Paul Nash

    As pink floyd says; “we don’t need no education we don’t need no forced control”
    “all and all its just another brick in the wall”]

    Pink Floyd did not say either of those line. The education level of some people here is a serious problem. If you must quote song lyrics, please use them correctly. The lines are directed at Pink’s teacher, which would become apparent if they were quoted accurately. The correct lyric are:

    “We don’t need no education, we don’t need no THOUGHT control” and “All IN all YOU’RE just another brick in the wall”.

  48. enjaybee, FYI from Guardian UK

    “Rupert Murdoch may have told his biographer that he favoured Barack Obama rather than Hillary Clinton because he’ll sell more papers but Obama is obviously not his choice for president.

    Murdoch’s New York Post has backed John McCain. In a lengthy editorial the paper “enthusiastically urges” McCain’s election because of his “lifelong record of service to America, his battle-tested courage, unshakeable devotion to principle and clear grasp of the dangers and opportunities now facing the nation”.”

  49. Enjaybee…. not sure who owns them?

    But checking out Wikipedia (when in doubt, go there) a whole list of his assets is given and in the US, as far as only newspapers go, he owns two –

    New York Post
    The Wall Street Journal

    The New York Post endorsed McCain. According to my website source, the WSJ hasn’t made an endorsement as of yet. If I’m wrong on that, can someone else post it if they know different? thanks 🙂

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