Presidential election minus 17 days

Two states have moved to the McCain column on my weighted aggregates: Ohio, where polling for McCain remains surprisingly strong, and West Virginia, where a 50-42 result from Public Policy Polling puts the state back where it should probably have been all along. Obama’s lead in North Dakota is largely based on what was probably a rogue poll. For all that, Obama retains leads of over 5 per cent in enough states to win the election (note that the table below will be updated as new polls become available, so the aforementioned might be out of date at the time you read this).

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 56.0 37.0 3215 17
Maine 54.8 38.9 2185 4
Washington 55.1 40.5 2149 11
Iowa 54.0 39.7 1160 7
Minnesota 53.4 40.5 3177 10
Wisconsin 52.2 39.5 3567 10
Pennsylvania 52.7 40.3 3604 21
New Hampshire 53.3 42.1 3360 4
Ohio 51.8 40.8 3024 20
Virginia 51.5 43.1 3324 13
New Mexico 50.1 42.0 2427 5
Colorado 51.9 45.7 3038 9
North Carolina 50.7 45.5 4769 15
Nevada 49.5 45.4 3221 5
Indiana 48.8 45.0 3128 11
Missouri 49.2 45.4 3063 11
North Dakota 45.8 43.6 1206 3
Florida 46.6 45.9 3420 27
Montana 45.5 47.5 2003 3
Georgia 45.6 49.5 3533 15
West Virginia 43.0 50.0 3022 5
Others – – – 175 137
RCP/Total 50.2 42.8 – 378 160

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

925 comments on “Presidential election minus 17 days”

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  1. Ok, here is a new one on me, I didn’t know this before tonight. So I’m gathering that none of you out there probably knew this either ….

    [
    Some of McCain’s black relatives support Obama
    BY ELGIN JONES

    In the rural Teoc community of Carroll County, Miss., where the ancestors of Sen. John McCain owned enslaved Africans on a plantation, black, white and mixed-race family members unite every two years for their Coming Home Reunion, on the land where the plantation operated.

    Some of McCain’s black family members say they are not sure exactly where they fall on the family tree, but they do know this: They are either descendants of the McCain family slaves, or of children the McCains fathered with their slaves.

    http://www.sfltimes.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2041&Itemid=42
    ]

  2. I could not resist. This one is from votefromabroad.org –

    Is John McCain a Maverick?

    No! says Terrellita Maverick, a descendant of Samuel Augustus Maverick, who went to Texas in the 1800s and became famous for not branding his cattle, which led to unbranded cattle being called “mavericks.” The Maverick family has been active in progressive politics for generations, including Fontaine Maury Maverick, who was a congressman and his son, a firebrand lawyer who defended draft resisters. The Mavericks object strenuously to McCain’s being labeled a maverick, saying: “He’s a Republican. He’s branded.” Thanks to Debbie Scherrer for the pointer.

  3. More polls –

    Obama Continues to Lead in the National Polls

    With seven new national polls released yesterday, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain in all of them, with the average lead being 6.3%
    – Battleground (Obama +4)
    – Diageo (Obama +10)
    – Gallup expanded (Obama +6)
    – IBD (Obama +5)
    – Rasmussen (Obama +4)
    – Research 2000 (Obama +10)
    – Zogby (Obama +5)

  5. Conventional wisdom would say there will be a narrowing, to borrow a scenario from OZ 2007. Can’t see it being enough for MCain unless something very dramatic happens. The Princeton Election Consortium has some interesting comment and analysis of the polls.

    I reckon the Democrats will win the contest to get the vote out this time.

  6. There have really only ever been three Mavericks, Bart, Beau and Brett. I wonder how many people here remember them. I’m showing my age.

  8. So, will Powell endorse Obama or not?
    We’ll find out in a few hours, when MEET THE PRESS airs in the U.S.
    Also: The Houston Chronicle today endorses Obama for President, the first time in 40 years they have supported a Democrat!

  9. I provide the below quote only for the interesting term ‘ethically challenged’.

    [Salt Lake Tribune, which supported George W. Bush in 2004, commented that “out of nowhere, and without proper vetting, the impetuous McCain picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. She quickly proved grievously under-equipped to step into the presidency should McCain, at 72 and with a history of health problems, die in office. More than any single factor, McCain’s bad judgment in choosing the inarticulate, insular and ethically challenged Palin disqualifies him for the presidency.” The Kansas City Star, in turn, described Palin as “unqualified.”]

  10. When is Meet the Press, in our time…

    Would there be a stream/download?

    Heh, showing my youth, but the only maverick named Bart I know if from the Simpsons..

  11. “Meet the Press” is seen on the NBC Television Network from 9-10 a.m. ET in most markets. In Washington D.C. and New York City, the broadcast is seen from 10:30-11:30 a.m. ET.

    Not sure what that equals for us

  12. [“Meet the Press” is seen on the NBC Television Network from 9-10 a.m. ET in most markets. In Washington D.C. and New York City, the broadcast is seen from 10:30-11:30 a.m. ET.]

    I’m pretty sure it shown on Ch 7 at around 3.30am Monday Morning according to Yahoo 7.

    [ 03:30 am NBC Meet the Press G TV-G Current Affairs, Closed Captions Seven ]

  13. There’s been quite a sharp move McCain’s way on the RCP average, which has moved North Dakota to McCain on my aggregates. However, I’ve decided I’m no longer going to include the Zogby internet polls, which has boosted Obama’s figure for Ohio.

  16. #52 — Is John McCain a Maverick?

    I like what Mikey Robbins said on GNW last Tuesday. Someone who keeps saying their a
    Maverick all the time, Is a bit of a Dickhead Maverick…

  17. well, as everyone else is doing it..

    I, former President of the Peoples Republic of China, Chairman of the Communist party of China and all-round brutal-dictator, endorse Barack Obama for President of the United States of America.

  20. Gary Bruce says –

    “There have really only ever been three Mavericks, Bart, Beau and Brett. I wonder how many people here remember them. I’m showing my age.”

    James Garner as Bret Maverick,
    Jack Kelly as Bart Maverick
    Roger Moore as Beau Maverick

    That show was on over 45 years ago… & I’m younger than that!

  22. Meanwhile it took Fox 5 minutes on it’s 8.00 am PT news to mention the Powell endorsement. They led with complaints that Obama campaign is raising too much money and then having the audacity to spend it and voter fraud. The first half hour was mainly all about voter fraud. Don’t they know how to spell “Florida”?

  23. jjulian1009 @ 9,

    Missouri has an exemplary record as a bellwether. The state has voted for the victor in every presential election from 1960 onwards; a longer unbroken streak than any other state. It also voted for the winner in every election from 1904 to 1952. So 1956 (when it voted Democrat against the grain) is its only miss in 26 contests.

    These days it probably leans slightly to the Republican side of the ledger, but not by much. I’m not surprised Obama’s doing well there now that he’s well ahead nationally. There may be a lot of rednecks there, but like Pennsylvania that’s balanced by the liberal enclaves at each end of the state.

  24. http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/-/2/hi/americas/7678788.stm

    Indeed Powell has backed Obama. Bush and the Republican Party have ruined their moral, social, and now economic credentials, with disapproval ratings in the 70-80% range.

    I’m glad the US senate swung back to 49-49 with 2 ind at the 2006 legislative election. With Obama’s poll momentum, there should be no issues seeing Obama as the next US president with a majority in both houses.

  25. Darn,

    [
    Darn
    Posted Monday, October 20, 2008 at 12:54 am | Permalink
    Fox is reporting that Powell has endorsed Obama.
    ]

    Now wait for the other shoe to drop 😉 😉

    [
    juliem
    Posted Friday, September 26, 2008 at 3:28 pm | Permalink
    Adam @ 37,

    Colin Powell will be in Obama’s cabinet. You heard it here first …….
    ]

  26. William @ 71,

    [
    I now have Ohio back in the McCain column by a grand total of 0.1 per cent.
    ]

    It may be that close but only in Ohio [ not nationally 😉 ]

  27. Isn’t it all a bit been-there-done-that for Powell?

    Even if he’s offered a spot, would he take it? I recall he rejected an offer to serve in Bill Clinton’s cabinet.

  29. David @ 77, I don’t recall that he endorsed Clinton at any point. That decision, in and of itself, is a major change in mindset.

  30. The fact that there are racists anywhere in the world is not surprising. There’d be a number of black voters who are not voting for McCain because he is white, but people are not whining about that.

  31. ltep, i know that there are racists out there, i’ve lived in that kind of country growing up. the unofficial michigan headquarters of the K K K was almost literally in my back yard growing up, between 10 to 15 miles away. there weren’t any black students at my schools growing up.

    you missed the point. rather than lecturing me about racism being a fact of life, you should have been upset or shocked about the form/method/mode that racism took in this instance. It is 2008 and the 21st century. Such crude methods of demonstrating someones point should resonate in civilized society.

  36. William Bowe @ 63

    Good call on Zogby Internet Poll.

    Here’s what Nate Silver at 538.com said today about Zogby’s Daily Tracker:

    The national tracking polls are actually in pretty good agreement with one another, with IBD/TIPP, Research 2000, Gallup, and Hotline all settling in the 5-7 point range. Zogby is the outlier at Obama +2.7, and that’s because Zogby has the odd practice of fixing his poll’s party identification weights based on what they were in the last presidential election. In Zogby’s world, then, it’s still 2004, when there were roughly as many Republicans as Democrats. Although Zogby’s trendlines may be worth looking at, his topline numbers are basically unusable.

  40. I’m sure that any remaining Obama sceptics from the militant Centre have had all of their doubts allayed by the resounding endorsement of Obama by the very serious and considered Powell, who knows more than anyone whether Obama has the requisite experience and qualities to be POTUS.

    Now let us now speak any further of the matter. 😉

  41. Two questions:

    1. In the early hours of this morning (about 4.30am) Fox announced that the latest Gallup tracking poll was showing 52/42 for Obama. I checked the internet but was unable to confirm those figures and no-one else seems to be quoting them. Can anyone else tell me if they have seen the 52/42 figures?

    2. Does anyone know when Bush’s proposed financial summit is scheduled for and is it going to occur before polling day. .

  42. bob @ 74 said:
    “I’m glad the US senate swung back to 49-49 with 2 ind at the 2006 legislative election. With Obama’s poll momentum, there should be no issues seeing Obama as the next US president with a majority in both houses.”

    I dearly wish that were the case, but a Senate minority can stop any bill from passing through by stopping debate closure with only 41 votes (filibuster). Only 1/3 of the Senate up for re-election, and it appears the Republicans (even without their buddy Lieberman) are most likely to have 41 to 43 Senators in the new Congress. This is important for Cabinet appointments and Supreme Court nominations as well as money bills.

    Also please note, that Dem Senators from southern states will often vote against the party majority policy. If Democrats were to pull off the long shot of 60 Senators after this election, you can bet a handful will be such “Bluedogs”. It’s almost better to have them stay Republican for all the damage they will do opposing Obama on issues that could hurt the Sentors’ chances of re-election in their home states.

    Think of our own “maverick” Senator Barnaby Joyce, except he only talks a good game to be able to spend more time with his loved ones (those would be the folks with the cameras and microphones), then votes with the Coalition.

  44. Can I just point out that Zogby is a cretin? He reports his tracking poll at 52.7%, ie to three degrees of accuracy. His MOE is about 3%.

    How can you report a decimal point of accuracy when you inaccuracy level is ten times that? The answer is that you cannot honestly do that. I assume he has some knowledge of basic mathematics and knows this. So he is completely dishonestly trying to make his poll look more accurate than it is.

  45. Darn,

    Here’s the Gallup likely voter information from their website today:

    A Tighter Race Among Likely Voters

    Gallup is also looking at the race according to two likely voter scenarios. One, the traditional Gallup approach, takes into account voters’ intention to participate in the current election as well as their voting history in previous presidential elections. Among this group, Obama leads McCain by three points, 49% to 46%. This is similar to Obama’s standing among traditional likely voters over the past five days.

    An alternate approach to defining likely voters uses only voters’ self-professed likelihood to vote in 2008, and does not factor in whether they voted in past elections. This model assumes that new registrants and infrequent voters will be more heavily represented in the pool of voters who turn out on Election Day than has been the case historically. Among this more broadly defined likely voter group, Obama leads by seven points, 51% to 44%. — Lydia Saad

  46. Diogenes,

    Throughout the 2004 and 2006 elections, I was one of Zogby’s internet poll respondents. I can attest that there is absolutely no verification of whether respondents were what they reported themselves to be, which didn’t stop Zogby from publishing the results (that William Bowe has rejected).

    Although one assumes Zogby has verified the veracity of the identification of it’s tracking poll respondents, it’s use of 2004 Repub to Dem voter ratio is suspect. By contrast, Gallup is presenting its data in both 2004 and 2008 models (see my previous post #95), letting the media/aggregation websites choose which they want to include.

  47. Adam,
    Although I feel as negative as you regarding Fraser’s “coup” in 1975, it was not Fraser who sacked Whitlam.

    Over the decades, I’ve come to lay a lot more responsibility for the sacking on Whitlam’s own abysmal judgment in his appointment of a drunken egomaniac like Kerr as Governor-General and his subsequent appointment of Lionel Murphy to the Supreme Court, which gave Bjelke-Petersen the opportunity to replace Murphy with a bogus Labor Senator who voted with Fraser to block supply.

    Compared to Howard’s reign, the Fraser governments were moderate and certainly did not generate the considerable redistribution of wealth to the rich which we’ve endured over the past 12 years. Fraser also spoke out against racism around the world and continues to do so.

  48. I think this should be nipped in the bud right here.

    I haven’t experienced a Dismissal discussion on this site and I’m sure it’s very illuminating but I dunno if a US election thread is the best place for it?

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