NSW by-elections live

7.51pm. The NSWEC has all but a few booths in from Port Macquarie, and you can now clearly call it for Peter Besseling, who leads the Nationals candidate 36.8 per cent to 31.9 per cent. Elsewhere it’s clear the results are as expected: a big win for the Liberals in Ryde, and narrower wins for Labor in Cabramatta and Lakemba following swings of over 20 per cent.

7.30pm. With 22.4 per cent counted, Besseling 37.6 per cent and Nationals 31.9 per cent, so Besseling home and hosed unless these are very good Nationals booths outstanding.

7.26pm. Labor’s lead now up to 5.7 per cent in Cabramatta according to the ABC. Still no actual prefernece counts in yet.

7.24pm. Seven booths out of 21 counted on the primary vote in Ryde, and that Taverner poll is looking good: Liberal on 62 per cent of the two-party vote.

7.23pm. ABC computer has Besseling leading by 1.2 per cent in Port Macquarie, but with no notional preference counts in yet this is based on assumptions about preferences.

7.21pm. The ABC computer is now up to speed on the Cabramatta count: Labor is facing a 24 per cent swing, but that leaves them with 5 per cent to spare.

7.14pm. No real trouble for Labor in Lakemba, with 59.2 per cent after a third of the booths counted.

7.11pm. NSWEC has eight booths counted in Cabramatta, Labor leading 48.0 per cent to 40.4 per cent, so Nick Lalich is not actually in trouble. Liberals on 54.9 per cent in Ryde with over a third of the booths counted, so an obvious win for them there.

7.08pm. Comments tells me Cabramatta “tightening”, but ABC computer still only has one booth. NSWEC website most unwieldy (PDFs? Come on …).

7.00pm. Nine booths in and 6 per cent counted in Port Macquarie, and looking ominous for the Nationals, who trail Besseling 35.0 per cent to 32.9 per cent on the primary vote. Still nothing from Ryde.

6.55pm. Labor looking at an ugly swing in Cabramatta of over 20 per cent, but not enough to cost them the seat.

6.50pm. Commenter Oakeshott Country, who knows his Port Macquarie onions backwards, says the three small booths in so far suggest a very close result between the Nationals candidate Leslie Williams and independent Peter Besseling.

6.42pm. Riverwood booth in from Lakemba. Labor vote on 55.3 per cent, which suggests a 20 per cent drop.

6.20pm. Booths closed 20 minutes ago. First results should be in shortly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

206 comments on “NSW by-elections live”

  1. [ Dubbo was close both at the by-election to replace McCrane with Fardell and her re-election at the 2007 election. Labor preferences assisted her on both occasions and with Labor on the nose their preferences will be fewer and fewer come 2011. This should assist the Nationals in reclaiming Dubbo and Tamworth on simple mathematical dimensions. ]

    This is wrong – Labor didn’t run a candidate in the 2004 by-election. They got 11.1% in 2007… it’s hard to see them going much backwards from that. In 2007, Fardell was 0.9% behind the Nats on primary vote, but won by 0.9% – the figures here would suggest about half the Labor voters preferenced the Nats, so they’re neither helped not hindered by any reduction in Labor’s vote. If the Nats want to win Dubbo, they’ll have to do it themselves.

    As for Torbay, he ain’t going nowhere… he beat the Nats 72.7 to 17.7 on primary last time. Tamworth’s more winnable for them, but if it’s following Northern Tablelands (and New England federally), the Nats are gonna get squelched. Will be interesting to see which one happens. As for Port Macquarie, they’ve blown their best chance to get that back.

  2. The NSWEC seems to have all the declaration votes for Lakemba added to the result but it’s still only 80.3% of the total enrollment, this seems too low, even for a by-election. Do they wait until all the votes from a certain part of the declarations are counted before they add them to the results or do they continuously update it?

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