7.51pm. The NSWEC has all but a few booths in from Port Macquarie, and you can now clearly call it for Peter Besseling, who leads the Nationals candidate 36.8 per cent to 31.9 per cent. Elsewhere it’s clear the results are as expected: a big win for the Liberals in Ryde, and narrower wins for Labor in Cabramatta and Lakemba following swings of over 20 per cent.
7.30pm. With 22.4 per cent counted, Besseling 37.6 per cent and Nationals 31.9 per cent, so Besseling home and hosed unless these are very good Nationals booths outstanding.
7.26pm. Labor’s lead now up to 5.7 per cent in Cabramatta according to the ABC. Still no actual prefernece counts in yet.
7.24pm. Seven booths out of 21 counted on the primary vote in Ryde, and that Taverner poll is looking good: Liberal on 62 per cent of the two-party vote.
7.23pm. ABC computer has Besseling leading by 1.2 per cent in Port Macquarie, but with no notional preference counts in yet this is based on assumptions about preferences.
7.21pm. The ABC computer is now up to speed on the Cabramatta count: Labor is facing a 24 per cent swing, but that leaves them with 5 per cent to spare.
7.14pm. No real trouble for Labor in Lakemba, with 59.2 per cent after a third of the booths counted.
7.11pm. NSWEC has eight booths counted in Cabramatta, Labor leading 48.0 per cent to 40.4 per cent, so Nick Lalich is not actually in trouble. Liberals on 54.9 per cent in Ryde with over a third of the booths counted, so an obvious win for them there.
7.08pm. Comments tells me Cabramatta “tightening”, but ABC computer still only has one booth. NSWEC website most unwieldy (PDFs? Come on …).
7.00pm. Nine booths in and 6 per cent counted in Port Macquarie, and looking ominous for the Nationals, who trail Besseling 35.0 per cent to 32.9 per cent on the primary vote. Still nothing from Ryde.
6.55pm. Labor looking at an ugly swing in Cabramatta of over 20 per cent, but not enough to cost them the seat.
6.50pm. Commenter Oakeshott Country, who knows his Port Macquarie onions backwards, says the three small booths in so far suggest a very close result between the Nationals candidate Leslie Williams and independent Peter Besseling.
6.42pm. Riverwood booth in from Lakemba. Labor vote on 55.3 per cent, which suggests a 20 per cent drop.
6.20pm. Booths closed 20 minutes ago. First results should be in shortly.
According to Channel 9 News: Labor is very worried about Cabramatta!
there’s a surprise!
One small booth in Lakemba ALP -55%
That’s not Oakeshott country!
3 very small booths in PM (including Lord Howe Is) Nationals 37%, Beesling 30% – as these should be rock solid nationals, it may be a close result after all
those three booths total 67% who is polling the other 33%
Certainly hoping that exhaustion rates are less than 60%… well, I hope our electorate is intelligent enough.
Probably the other 10 independants and The Greens?
Thanks Oz, I wasn’t aware that there were 13 candidates.
[ One small booth in Lakemba ALP -55% ]
Any other election, this’d be a stupid question, but this one, I wonder. Is that a dash and a primary vote, or a minus sign on a swing?
Meanwhile, OC – you may have to start calling yourself Beesling Country if it continues like that for him. 😛
They include John’s River, the guy who owns the petrol station there is standing as an independent. He got 10% – he is unlikely to repeat that anywhere else – would these voters gone for Beesling or the Nats, if the local boy wasn’t standing?
Haha the petrol station guy is running? Legend.
I was surprised Jimbo, my barber, eventually decided not to run as a “true independent”
is there anyone in PM NOT running?
😛
First Cabra booth in… looks 55% ALP – 45% LIB
Zombie Mao ask who isn’t running!
I believe that might be the ALP.
4 big booths in Cabramatta ALP 47%, Lib 41% 5500 counted
What’s the record for the most amount of candidates?
24% swing! a nice big kick but I suspect the ALP will hold Cabramatta
True, Mexicanbeemer but their candidate is running as an independant. =P
Don’t forget the Liberals mexicanbeemer (although they are supporting Beesling)
It is bigger 2PP Mexicanbeemer
I remember a few years ago at a general state election that something like 13 people ran in the seat of Richmond.
I was going to ask Oz if the local ALP had a preferred candidate in Port Macquarrie
9 booths in (2700) votes in PM Beesling 35% Nats 33%
Mexicanbeemer – I think anyone except the National – the answer is no
re: Bird of paradox @#10
The small booth in Lakemba is a new booth for this by-election. It is the Electoral Commission’s data entry centre in Riverwood.
I expect a very low turnout in Lakemba. When I voted early this afternoon, there wasn’t even a queue to vote.
None of the big PM booths are in. I think they would favour Beesling
Go Besseling.
Cabramatta seems to be tightening
Oh and 55% of First Preferences to the Liberals after 7 booths in Ryde.
They didn’t win any of them at the State Election, and pretty much uniformly.
The Wills by-election of 1991, with 22 candidates, holds the federal record.
Frankston East 1999 special election had 16 candidates
Go Besseling – if he’s ahead with only a handful of smaller booths in, he’ll do even better when the big Port booths come in soon.
Ok, Cabramatta retained by the ALP. They have held up their vote in some larger booths.
18 booths in in PM (10000) votes Beeseling 37%, Nats 32%. I think he is going to win – the Nats are not going to be preferenced over him. Can we now say the national party is finished on the North Coast?
I hope so, OC.
11% swing to The Greens in Lakemba, better than the swing to the Libs.
Hahahahaha! We own Ryde now!!!!
RYDE- LIB GAIN!!!
So could I asay its a safe bet that the Liberals have won Ryde, the ALP have won Lakemba and Cabramtta and Port Macquarrie is looking like an Indepent held seat, if that is correct then how many seats do the ALP need to lose to lose marjority Government status.
A 11% swing to the Greens in an area that I wouldn’t call Green friendly would be seen as a good result.
Mexicanbeemer – Antony Green appears to agree with you.
Also, 15 seats I think.
Labor will now hold 51 seats out of 93, so need to lose 5 to lose their majority.
Honest John,
I guess you would be happy if the government now cancelled the Epping to Chatswood railway. After all, the Libs tried to stop it being built and all the new stations are in Ryde!
I can’t imagine any huge events changing between now and the next election… but who knows?
Yeah, that would be smart… Cancel a $2bn project that is almost completed.
I’m sure the whole of NSW would be pleased with such good management.
Agreed, Mexican, almost 15% at this stage, probably looking at something slightly lower than that by the end of the night, is a great result for the Greens in Lakemba.
How many National ministers in NSW after O’Farrell’s coming triumph? After this performance the Liberal balance in the Colaition will markedly increase. As for Labor do they have it in them to get down fighting and try to win back some ground?
People who place their faith in by-election swings are usually disappointed.
*5. Dunno where the 1 sneaked into.
I agree with Anthony!! Liberals need to refrain from thinking they have the next election in the bag.
Bi-elections are an opportunity to vote knowing it is sending a message to the Government or Opposition.
For a start both Lakemba and Cabramatta will return to 20% plus margins