Two states have moved to the McCain column on my weighted aggregates: Ohio, where polling for McCain remains surprisingly strong, and West Virginia, where a 50-42 result from Public Policy Polling puts the state back where it should probably have been all along. Obama’s lead in North Dakota is largely based on what was probably a rogue poll. For all that, Obama retains leads of over 5 per cent in enough states to win the election (note that the table below will be updated as new polls become available, so the aforementioned might be out of date at the time you read this).
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 56.0 | 37.0 | 3215 | 17 | |
| Maine | 54.8 | 38.9 | 2185 | 4 | |
| Washington | 55.1 | 40.5 | 2149 | 11 | |
| Iowa | 54.0 | 39.7 | 1160 | 7 | |
| Minnesota | 53.4 | 40.5 | 3177 | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 52.2 | 39.5 | 3567 | 10 | |
| Pennsylvania | 52.7 | 40.3 | 3604 | 21 | |
| New Hampshire | 53.3 | 42.1 | 3360 | 4 | |
| Ohio | 51.8 | 40.8 | 3024 | 20 | |
| Virginia | 51.5 | 43.1 | 3324 | 13 | |
| New Mexico | 50.1 | 42.0 | 2427 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 51.9 | 45.7 | 3038 | 9 | |
| North Carolina | 50.7 | 45.5 | 4769 | 15 | |
| Nevada | 49.5 | 45.4 | 3221 | 5 | |
| Indiana | 48.8 | 45.0 | 3128 | 11 | |
| Missouri | 49.2 | 45.4 | 3063 | 11 | |
| North Dakota | 45.8 | 43.6 | 1206 | 3 | |
| Florida | 46.6 | 45.9 | 3420 | 27 | |
| Montana | 45.5 | 47.5 | 2003 | 3 | |
| Georgia | 45.6 | 49.5 | 3533 | 15 | |
| West Virginia | 43.0 | 50.0 | 3022 | 5 | |
| Others | – | – | – | 175 | 137 |
| RCP/Total | 50.2 | 42.8 | – | 378 | 160 |
Well the narrowing (I’ve been expecting it) doesn’t seem to be happening.
McCain really needs the markets to settle, but the steady drum beat of the oncoming recession is growing louder – I can’t see any respite from that direction.
We won’t know until the day but perhaps the size of Obama army on the ground, the extent of early votes, a big turn out from the amoungst the black vote and dismay within Rebuplican ranks will all combine to produce an off the dial result.
Obama will win, and maybe win big but in some ways its cold comfort. I can’t shake the feeling that its eight years too late. We’ve missed the chance to use good times to solve problems and just we justed leverage up and pretended it was real wealth.
I do wonder how much the world lost when the repubs stole Florida in 2000.
WTR,
My regret about 2000 is more that McCain didn’t win the nomination. Whilst I agree that Gore would have been much better than Bush, the 64yo McCain might have been better still in my view.
Obama is going to have a very hard job if current indications are anything to go by. Being loved by the world won’t get him re-elected in 2012, if the US economy has gone down the toilet. And of course the Repubs may well run Palin for Prez in 2012.
[Obama is going to have a very hard job if current indications are anything to go by. Being loved by the world won’t get him re-elected in 2012, if the US economy has gone down the toilet. And of course the Repubs may well run Palin for Prez in 2012.]
Just two questions Dyno. What makes you think people will hold Obama responsible and what makes you think Palin will be any more electable next election next time?
[I love Mike Moore so watch out! The left needs someone like him to stir things up. ]
I think Moore is nothing more than a left wing version of George Bush. If you want to watch good political documentaries, watch The Fog of War or Standard Operating Procedure by Errol Morris, or Cult of the Suicide Bomber http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0817498/
Moore is a polemicist, he isn’t really interested in the truth (which is the essence of documentary filmmaking), he is simply interested in replacing a right wing mythology with a left wing one. This betrays the Enlightenment roots of the left which proposed that the truth can stop weak people from being exploited by the powerful.
But this isn’t surprising really, Moore changes his mind on things so quickly I can’t keep up – he was against the U.S. invading Afghanistan (even though it was unanimously backed by the U.N. security council!), but then when Bush planned the invasion of Iraq he said they should be in Afghanistan! He seems to believe the opposite to whatever position he is attacking at any point in time irrespective of the content.
In contrast, Morris’ films are interested in particular truths (who did what, when and how did they do it?) but he is also interested in why people try and cover up and make sense of the truth. Moore’s films are like the lame didactic films first year film students make. Whereas Morris’ are some of the best films ever made, because they don’t try to ram half baked arguments down your throat.
Having said that, I think Moore’s old TV show was excellent. I vividly recall a sketch that involved Moore setting up a petrol station “Iraqi Gas”, which sold petrol for $1 a gallon. Unsurprisingly he was swamped with customers, who couldn’t care less about the brand name. If only he would revert to doing stunts like that, you know, when he didn’t take himself so seriously.
Dyno,
I’d agree McCain in 2000 would have a been a much better outcome (I suspect Humphry B Bear would have been better as well).
The fallout from the crash and the extent of the economic decline is going to be make life hard for incumbants everywhere. The repubs may well have an (undeserved) shot and getting back in 2012 – but I really doubt they roll the Dice with Palin again.
People can say what they like, label it overreacion ror whatever, but had Bush failed in 2000, the world would be a much different place now. I’m not necessarily talking about wars that wouldnt have happened. I’m talking about the basic human values and the place of the USA in the world.
[I’m talking about the basic human values and the place of the USA in the world.]
I don’t think it is anything that can’t be corrected over time. If McCain wins it will just take a lot longer.
The fact is, Obama can be a pretty mediocre President, and still be consider light years better than Bush. So whoever wins, the expectations are going to be rather low. He can screw up a lot and still be considered better than Bush.
Btw – I went through a Moore love-fest phase aswell. I think he’s important as part of the wider voice, but he’s a showpony who plays with the truth as much as any right wing nut does. Bowling For Columbine is a good film, but Fahrenheit 9/11 is pure garbage. Like I said, he’s important for discussion, but I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him…
ShowsOn – an Obama victory is a massive step for humanity. And I’m not getting all hazy and bright-eyed here. He will struggle considerably in his first term with the current climate, but the election of Obama would be massive for the consience of the USA and the world, IMO.
Obama is getting all the breaks. World capitalism implodes, McCain shoots himself in the foot, Palin self-destructs, and now Obama’s granny is going to die just before polling day, allowing the whole country to have a great big gooey Oprah-moment with him. At this rate he’ll carry Utah and Wyoming.
[Like I said, he’s important for discussion, but I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him…]
Oh certainly, he has every right to make whatever rubbish he wants to. And I’ll reserve my right to call it pie in the sky rubbish. 😀
In the long term however I think he does his cause more harm than good. Because like George Bush and Karl Rove et al, he seems to be saying that the truth actually isn’t important, it is how persuasive you can be using loud music and tacky voice over narration that actually counts.
To me that is playing right into the “we make reality” ethos of the Bush administration. It makes things too simple, it tries to convince people that a semi-coherent theory is as good as a well though out one. Well great, but the world doesn’t actually work that way.
Oh, and THAT film didn’t help Kerry win in 2004 either. But Moore made over $100 million from it, so I’m sure he’s happy.
(For what it’s worth, Errol Morris earns money by making advertisements, he is an Oscar winning documentary filmmaker, but his films don’t make any money, because you have to think really hard when you watch them. Sure they have arguments, but you have to think a lot to work out what they are.)
[ShowsOn – an Obama victory is a massive step for humanity….]
I agree, and I think the world economy will start turning around in 3 years. So if he gets his domestic economic policy right, they will be on their road to recovery when he is going for re-election.
Clinton did it, I can’t see why Obama can’t do the same. He will have basically the same advisers. I mean he taught at University of Chicago which is the birthplace of economic rationalism. (I don’t mean that in the derogatory sense, I just mean in the ‘using evidence to make economic policy decisions sense)
[At this rate he’ll carry Utah and Wyoming.]
Hillary would’ve carried Puerto Rico.
Do I hear the sounds of the drovers dog?
New McCain / Palin campaign poster:
Zogby up 1 for McCain to +9
Obama 51 (steady)
McCain 42 (up 1)
Any talk of Palin running as the republican pres candidate in the future is silly IMO. First, they would have no intention of having a woman in charge; Palin is just there to get the redneck vote out. Second, she has dodged all interviews in this campaign as VP but running for pres she would have to be able to handle well questions she clearly doesn’t understand. Finally, in the fallout after this trainwreck, I can’t see the republicans being a forgiving lot, so I doubt they would touch her.
“Obama is getting all the breaks. World capitalism implodes .. granny is going to die ”
Not exactly what I call luck
[Second, she has dodged all interviews in this campaign as VP but running for pres she would have to be able to handle well questions she clearly doesn’t understand.]
I think this is the more important one. It would also mean more TV debates, so she couldn’t hide behind her scripted questions as she did in the VP debate. While 4 years is a long time, I can’t see her being able to learn enough between now and then to get even remotely close to being a viable Presidential candidate.
901
I do wonder how much the world lost when the repubs stole Florida in 2000].
I think we can safely say the world lost plenty. To give just one example, I never thought I would live to see the day when the US would involve itself in the sanctioning of torture and the trashing of the Geneva convention, whatever the provocation. I just hope that the election of a good and decent man like Obama will over time will help to repair the massive damage done to this once great nation by Bush and his neocon cohorts. .
“Palin is just there to get the redneck vote out.”
I think McCain also picked her because he throught he could lock up the disaffected Clinton voters – that roll of the dice ended up snake eyes too.
I think Palin is no chance in 2012. Alaskan Gov is her last political gig.
Incidentally: why the zero coverage on Oba-one Kenobi’s white Momma?
And i mean ZERO.
Curious of Keating Towers,
LE
Rasmussen moves 1 point to Obama, now at +8
Obama 52 (steady)
McCain 44 (down 1)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Teen Defends Halloween Art Some Call Racist
OCONTO FALLS, Wis. — An Oconto Falls teen who hung three black-faced scarecrows by their necks as a Halloween display says the mannequins aren’t racist and he’s not taking them down.Marc Monfort, 18, said that only the media have complained.
He said that the figures hang from their necks but not by nooses. He says tying the rope to the neck is the only logical way to hang the figures.Mayor Don Osborne said that the display, which includes a Confederate flag, is disgusting. He said he can’t say whether it’s racist but he wishes it weren’t there.
District attorney Jay Conley said that police have mentioned the mannequins but haven’t asked that charges be filed.Local resident Rebecca Setterman calls the display clearly racist. She said that it makes her embarrassed to live there.
http://www.channel3000.com/news/17794877/detail.html
Darn
Yes there were many tragedies inherent in the 2000 decision. The million dead Iraqis, the non-action on climate change (which will hurt us most of all in the long term) and the death of multi-lateral concensus on many policies. Considering that you had a man (Bush) trying to get elected by arguing in court that counting the votes in a democratic election should be stopped, nobody should have been surprised.
New thread.