Presidential election minus 17 days

Two states have moved to the McCain column on my weighted aggregates: Ohio, where polling for McCain remains surprisingly strong, and West Virginia, where a 50-42 result from Public Policy Polling puts the state back where it should probably have been all along. Obama’s lead in North Dakota is largely based on what was probably a rogue poll. For all that, Obama retains leads of over 5 per cent in enough states to win the election (note that the table below will be updated as new polls become available, so the aforementioned might be out of date at the time you read this).

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 56.0 37.0 3215 17
Maine 54.8 38.9 2185 4
Washington 55.1 40.5 2149 11
Iowa 54.0 39.7 1160 7
Minnesota 53.4 40.5 3177 10
Wisconsin 52.2 39.5 3567 10
Pennsylvania 52.7 40.3 3604 21
New Hampshire 53.3 42.1 3360 4
Ohio 51.8 40.8 3024 20
Virginia 51.5 43.1 3324 13
New Mexico 50.1 42.0 2427 5
Colorado 51.9 45.7 3038 9
North Carolina 50.7 45.5 4769 15
Nevada 49.5 45.4 3221 5
Indiana 48.8 45.0 3128 11
Missouri 49.2 45.4 3063 11
North Dakota 45.8 43.6 1206 3
Florida 46.6 45.9 3420 27
Montana 45.5 47.5 2003 3
Georgia 45.6 49.5 3533 15
West Virginia 43.0 50.0 3022 5
Others – – – 175 137
RCP/Total 50.2 42.8 – 378 160

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

925 comments on “Presidential election minus 17 days”

Comments Page 15 of 19
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  1. Possum,

    [
    Possum
    Posted Friday, October 24, 2008 at 1:19 pm | Permalink
    Dio – 375 EV’s seems to be the most used definition of a landslide.
    ]

    I based my guess upon Obama winning all of the states upon the RCP no tossup states map + Indiana ….. think that is either 374 or 375, I’m not on the computer right now that has that list on it ….

  2. Possum,

    [
    The best definition seems to be 370 EV using historical criteria

    Sold for 370!
    ]

    Are you coming into our little guessing contest? I can’t remember, again not at the other computer in our house at the moment, but I don’t think you are in yet …..

  6. [Dario: That 538 site is crazy, the Republican trolls over there are getting hammered!]

    I try to avoid reading the comments 🙂

  9. jj, my sis sent me today unsolicited an article by the Detroit News – it was their endorsement for McCain. I responded by forwarding her, without additional comment, a cut and paste of an article that had heaps of veterans endorsing Obama as CIC ;-). My BIL is a sherrif’s deputy in real life after retiring on 20 years in the Army as a warrant officer …..

  10. Juliem went:

    [Are you coming into our little guessing contest?]

    I’m not too sure that Montana, North Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia (let alone 2 of the 3 Nebraska Congressional Districts) have decided which way they are going to flip yet. So it’s 364 pretty much certain + X.

    And I have no idea at the moment how big X is, or is even likely to be.

  11. [Possum, I just want to mention that you’re hypercorrecting.]

    It’s a terrible habit J-D. I always fall into it when I’m trying to be precise.

    Normally people just tell me to stop being a condescending prick and STFU! 😀

  13. Possum @ 710, you have until 10pm on Tuesday Nov. 4th to get me your predictions should you decide you want all the way in. Need EV number & guess on if Obama wins MO & state that will put Obama over the top. I say 10pm as that is the approx. time I will go to bed (I’m on Canberra time) and the polls will be already in progress by the time I wake up Wednesday morning so that would be cheating to take any more guesses at that point.

    10pm deadline on Tuesday the 4th …. Cheers 🙂

  14. Don’t think we will have to wait up on the state of Washington for a result but IF we do we will be waiting awhile …

    [
    Finally, in the unlikely event that Washington state determines the Obama-McCain contest, the nation could be held in suspense for days. The state’s vote-by-mail system allows ballots to be postmarked as late as midnight on Election Day.

    Polls show Washington leaning strongly toward Obama.
    ]

  16. Re 511,

    ltep, this post is for you

    your 511 follows:
    [
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, October 23, 2008 at 6:38 am | Permalink
    juliem my point was that we should have independent foreign policy so it shouldn’t matter who is the President of a single country. It is the arrogance of Americans who think the world cares about who leads their country. To most people it makes no more difference than who leads any other country.
    ]

    Now take a look at this. Just as a for example: (1) Canada – 75% of Canadians say it makes a difference to their country who is elected President of the USA & (2) Australia – their poll says 75% of Australians say it makes a difference to us who is POTUS & (3) Norway – 73% of Norwegians say it makes a difference to them who is elected POTUS.

    [http://www.foreignpolicy.com/gallup/]

  19. Further to 718,

    From the depths of that story comes this gem, a la Watergate in 1972 😉 …..

    [
    As if these problems weren’t enough, Democratic Party officials are asking incumbent GOP Rep. John Shadegg embarrassing questions concerning election-season espionage after a credit card belonging to Shadegg’s campaign manager was found under a desk in the offices of the Arizona Democratic Party headquarters.
    ]

  20. NYT says Obama’s margin of victory if the election were held today would exceed Clinton’s in 1992 ….

    [
    Senator Barack Obama is showing surprising strength among portions of the political coalition that returned George W. Bush to the White House four years ago, a cross section of support that, if it continues through Election Day, would exceed that of Bill Clinton in 1992, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News polls.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/us/politics/24poll.html?_r=2&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
    ]

  21. Interesting Gallup Poll stats and analysis (‘Bottom Line”) that the proportion of total RV’s who are first-time voters in 2008 is the same as it was in 2004 @ 13%:

    “First-time voters show solid support for Obama, 65% to 31%. That is a better showing for the Democratic candidate than in 2004, when first-time voters favored John Kerry over George W. Bush by 55% to 41%.

    Bottom Line

    Each presidential election brings a new wave of voters into the electoral process. And although there is speculation that Obama’s candidacy — given his appeal to young and minority voters — could bring an unusually large number of first-time voters to the polls this year, the proportion of registered voters who say they will be voting for the first time is no higher than it was in 2004. This to some degree may reflect the high turnout in 2004, which was about 10 points higher than it had been in recent elections, and thus would have significantly diminished the available pool of potential first-time voters for the 2008 election. Thus, the fact that the 2008 estimate of first-time voters is no lower than the 2004 estimate may still reflect an impressive influx of new voters this year, even though it may not be proportionately higher than in the last election.

  22. If you’re still around juliem, i’d love in on your competition.

    So i’d like 400 for Obama (that’s Kerry plus Iowa, Florida, NC, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Georgia, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota and one Nebraskan vote (that can happen can’t it?)). Obviously Obama wins Missouri. And tipping him over 270? Hmmm…how about Florida? Yes i believe i’ll go with that.

    Wooo!

  23. Yo ho ho,

    anyone can get in, I’ve put your guesses down. no awards here other than the pride of the one who got it right 😉 ……. you’re further out than I am, brave you are 🙂 … good on you 🙂

  27. Are we the highest Juliem? i remember last year with the Fed, people were tipping high 80s and 90s (and some in the 100s). I went low (78) and was a little dissapointed i wasn’t more wrong!

  28. Yo ho ho,

    This is the range so far. Mine is 375, yours is 400 …

    286
    291
    293
    306
    309
    310
    311
    313
    318
    338
    338
    348
    348
    350
    364
    375
    400

  31. William, Possum, HOLD the presses ….

    [
    Poll: Red State Of Montana Up For Grabs

    By Eric Kleefeld – October 23, 2008, 3:12PM

    In a possible new sign that the electoral map is swinging further to Barack Obama, a new Montana State University poll gives him a narrow lead in Montana, a state that has voted Dem only twice in the last 50 years.

    The numbers: Obama 44%, McCain 40%, with a ±5% margin of error. The undecided number here is awfully high, and McCain could very well win this, but it does seem like the state is up for grabs. For example, McCain took a strong lead here in September, but a Research 2000 poll from this past weekend gave him a close lead of 49%-45%.

    http://www.msubillings.edu/CAS/NAMS/Poll2008%20Day-1.pdf
    ]

  32. [William, Possum, HOLD the presses ….]
    Montana is the next most likely to flip on Intrade, probably thanks to this poll.

    Indiana keeps going back and forth between the candidates.

  35. Can I just make a quick prediction? That lady who was mutilated by the nasty black man is going to be a fraud. The B is too neat and even in depth to be done involuntarily. I’m guessing she turns out to be a very sick puppy. I have been wrong before but I’m pretty confident on this one.

  36. Dio, agreed on that 🙂 ….. back to the IR footy game, see you all in the morning, briefly. Going to Perisher for a bushwalk tomorrow and not home again till late in the day …. 🙂

  37. [The B is too neat and even in depth to be done involuntarily. I’m guessing she turns out to be a very sick puppy. I have been wrong before but I’m pretty confident on this one.]
    I assumed that the reason it was back to front is because she did it to herself while looking into a mirror.

  38. A bit of poetic justice here. The McCarthyesque Bachman has been abandoned by the RNC who are pulling her advertising. With her opponent getting $1M based on her disgusting comments it’s bye bye time for Bachman.

    [Two sources aware of ad buys in Minnesota say that the National Republican Congressional Committee is pulling its media purchases from Bachmann’s race.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/22/gop-pulling-its-ads-from_n_136941.html

  46. Darn,

    They are not talking to lefties who have made up their mind, live in a different country and don’t vote.

    Might pay for you to realise this.

  47. 741

    I’m with you Diogenes. A damn good thrashing is what these conservative types need to bring them back into the real world, (if that’s possible)

  49. GG

    Actually, I pretty much lose interest once the election happens. I’m one of those “the journey is more important than the destination” people. And as Ron pointed out repeatedly, I’m really more interested in the Repugs getting the boot than Obama getting in. I’m hoping to avoid negatives more than achieve positives.

  50. [They are not talking to lefties who have made up their mind, live in a different country and don’t vote.]
    Fox News just appeals to people who watch Fox News. I don’t think they are convincing many people to switch from supporting Obama to McCain.

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