Two states have moved to the McCain column on my weighted aggregates: Ohio, where polling for McCain remains surprisingly strong, and West Virginia, where a 50-42 result from Public Policy Polling puts the state back where it should probably have been all along. Obama’s lead in North Dakota is largely based on what was probably a rogue poll. For all that, Obama retains leads of over 5 per cent in enough states to win the election (note that the table below will be updated as new polls become available, so the aforementioned might be out of date at the time you read this).
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 56.0 | 37.0 | 3215 | 17 | |
| Maine | 54.8 | 38.9 | 2185 | 4 | |
| Washington | 55.1 | 40.5 | 2149 | 11 | |
| Iowa | 54.0 | 39.7 | 1160 | 7 | |
| Minnesota | 53.4 | 40.5 | 3177 | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 52.2 | 39.5 | 3567 | 10 | |
| Pennsylvania | 52.7 | 40.3 | 3604 | 21 | |
| New Hampshire | 53.3 | 42.1 | 3360 | 4 | |
| Ohio | 51.8 | 40.8 | 3024 | 20 | |
| Virginia | 51.5 | 43.1 | 3324 | 13 | |
| New Mexico | 50.1 | 42.0 | 2427 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 51.9 | 45.7 | 3038 | 9 | |
| North Carolina | 50.7 | 45.5 | 4769 | 15 | |
| Nevada | 49.5 | 45.4 | 3221 | 5 | |
| Indiana | 48.8 | 45.0 | 3128 | 11 | |
| Missouri | 49.2 | 45.4 | 3063 | 11 | |
| North Dakota | 45.8 | 43.6 | 1206 | 3 | |
| Florida | 46.6 | 45.9 | 3420 | 27 | |
| Montana | 45.5 | 47.5 | 2003 | 3 | |
| Georgia | 45.6 | 49.5 | 3533 | 15 | |
| West Virginia | 43.0 | 50.0 | 3022 | 5 | |
| Others | – | – | – | 175 | 137 |
| RCP/Total | 50.2 | 42.8 | – | 378 | 160 |
It’s not going to be a good day on Wall St. I think the economy has done enough to help Obama. It’s time it started behaving itself and showed a bit more confidence in the new POTUS. 😉
[Trading in futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq 100 Index was limited until U.S. markets open to stop the contracts from extending losses of more than 6 percent today. ]
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZRWfr8j_IXc&refer=worldwide
Darn,
I think you just proved my point. They don’t care what you think.
Diogenes,
You are a riddle of outrage and a passion of indetermination. Understanding the consequences of actions taken is a first step to responsibility.
[I think the economy has done enough to help Obama]
There is a LOT more to come, trust me
Diogenes @ 749
That’s the beauty of this election Diogenes – it really is the journey that’s important this time, because Obama’s arrival as POTUS will be sufficient in itself to change the tenor of world and domestic engagement. And not just because of the symbolism of electing a black president. We only have to look at the way he was received around the world on his trip, and how the vast majority of interested people outside the US want him elected. Not to mention the 89% in the US who want a change in direction. He’ll have a genuine mandate to get stuck in. The bonus is that the financial meltdown will give even greater opportunity for him to make lasting domestic changes because of the necessity for firm action, and because the vested interests are on the outer. Chaos gives great cover for a change agent 🙂
At this point I suppose the republicans must be praying (Howard like) for a major terrorist strike somewhere to allow them to rev up the old fear campaign. Its their only chance. I woder if they woudl provoke one if they could?
JV,
Lovely sentiment.
But, I always remember the tosh spewed out when Armstrong walked on the moon about how the world would fundamentally change and that the moment was a cathartic experience for the planet.
Well here we are forty years later and human nature is still human nature.
According to Howard, the terrorists will be celebrating the victory of Obama on Nov 4.
GG
I agree. It’s just different degrees of bad for me.
BTW Do you think Palin’s $150,000 clothes shopping was money well spent? How could they let that one out? It’s three times what “Joe the Average Plumber” earns in a year.
Yeah, pretty much. Hate to be the pessimist (Or realist) but the fundamentals of the world aren’t going to change, Obama or no Obama, economic crisis or no economic crisis.
Well Palin came out and said that all the clothes that are bought are either returned or auctioned for charity. She also disputes the figure of $150,000.
JV
Like Diogenes I want an end to Bush and hope Obama can deliver it. However, while I realise that most Americans are opposed to Bush now, and many always were, the change in government won’t be sufficient for me to simply trust America again. As one of my favourite philosphers said, all that is necessary for the forces of evil to triumph is for men (sic) of good will to say nothing”. The fact is, under George W Bush america did a lot of eveil, adn many americans accepted it, even though it trashed every principle their country was founded on.
My respect for the average American really has taken a dive in recent years. Its one thing that the election was stolen from Gore in 2000, but in 2004 a majority of US voters re-elected Bush despite knowing what he was like. They shoudl have known about Iraq and the building debts they are only now paying for. They really don’t seem to care what they do to the rest of the world. (My apologies to the minority who do care, including a few who post here.) Obama has a lot of bad legacies to repair, of which the economy is only one. I personally think that Americas moral bankruptcy is worse than its economic bankruptcy, and indeed the latter is a consequence of the former. I think the weakening of US power after Bush will be permanent, and it will never regain its position of unquestioned global supremacy. They don’t deseve to.
Don’t forget that the McCain Palin duo is still polling ~45%. That’s far too high for me to believe that America is somehow magically different.
It’s much the same as the last election in Oz. We are still the same country who elected Howie four times. Admittedly, Howie was not GWB but there were a few comparisons. Bush is actually less xenophobic in his immigration policies than Howard.
Diogenes,
Re Palin’s clothing – Passionately don’t care.
Re Joe the Plumber – Do you approve of the Obama “we are in to change you can believe in” Democrat hit job on a guy that asked a question?
Somehow I reckon you would have to dig much deeper in Howard than Bush to find some humanity. Dubya was an idiot.
GG
[Re Palin’s clothing – Passionately don’t care.]
I find that a bit surprising. I seem to recall you having a bit to say about Michelle Obama’s “lobster, caviar and champagne snack”. Remind me how that story turned out… 😉
GG – I never thought walking on the moon would change a thing. The analogy is empty. As an example in practical terms of the importance of this election, if Obama gets to the White House, there will be a collective sigh of relief from all those who want a more reasonable foreign (and domestic) policy from the US. Obama being there as a symbol of tolerance and the application intelligent reason to emerging problems rather than resorting to immediate brute force, should have the effect of altering the way the US is perceived by others, including reducing the rage that leads to terrorist acts against westerners. If so, we will all, including erstwhile co-belligerents like Australians, be just a little safer. Only Obama offers that possibility. That to me is sufficient reason to be very excited at his impending large victory.
Socrates
Yes, the legacy of the Bush years is going to be long-lasting. I would like to see Obama working to strengthen the UN (although I know the structural problems), and/or working with multilateral groups of nations of necessary to bring the US’s power and wealth to bear as a force for good around the world. If the rest of the world sees that happening with less a much aggressive pursuit of self-interest, then US influence can emerge again without being a threatening one.
Diogenes,
My hypocrisy is not as bad as yours.
Women, clothes WTF? Talk to your missus for a re education experience.
Lobster and living the high life. I dare Michelle to admit it’s true.
‘if necessary’ that should be in 768.
You blokes don’t seriously believe they went to the moon do you?
In 1969 they hadn’t even invented the pocket calculator. They didn’t even have colour TV. I have seen unedited footage which clearly shows the flag being blown by wind.
It was a con. 🙂
JV,
I accept you stood above the hysteria, just like you are doing now.
Centre,
Are you describing the moon landing or Obama’s campaign?
I’m referring to other famous American cons like WMD’s. As for Obama, He’s going super.;)
GG
Actually, I don’t care about the $150,000 Palin spent and I don’t care about Michelle’s lunch even if she had it. I am concerned about the possibility of double standards. I am even more concerned that an intelligent man like you fell for Rush’s BS.
BTW As a horse man, is tomorrow’s Cox Plate field the worst in living memory? I can’t think of a Cox Plate field with so few Group 1 winners ever.
Diogenes I agree. I like Raheeb and last week Toorak winner.
Thanks GG, although I might allow a quiet little ‘huzzah’ to escape on 5 November if things go according to the script and the Kid wins.
Wasn’t the moon landing filmed somewhere in the Nevada desert?
JV, I wouldn’t bet it was filmed on the moon?
Diogenes,
There is a difference between being wealthy and flaunting it. Clothes are like costumes for political figures and I have no problem with individuals having the best available. It’s like have the latest technology etc. Lobster and caviar is different IMHO.
Regardless, the race will throw up a winner. Princess Coup for me.
I love a good conspiracy theory. Where are the camera people, the set designers and the property stewards for this fake moon landing. Nary a whisper apart from unsubatantiated supposition.
My goodness, next you’ll be saying an African American will be POTUS in our lifetime.
What about the lizard track in the ‘moon dust’ before they put a foot down? Or it could have been the mark of a sand rake prong.
GG – They didn’t use many technicians – the film quality and lighting was terrible. But the ones they did use, well they haven’t been heard of since have they? Eh? Their bodies are probably underground in that facility with the aliens the authorities dissected and kept secret.
Ramussen
National
O-52 M-45
i.e. no change
also from Ramussen:
“Every week it seems to get worse for House Republicans. As we will demonstrate below, we have expanded the number of possible to likely net gains for Democrats from our previous 15 to 20 to a new and rather astounding 22 to 27 seats.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/house_race_update_democratic_domination_continues
Of course it is the Senate which is far more crucial.
Battle Ground
O-49
M-46
O is steady, McCain Up one
anyone noticed the O doesnt drop below 49 too often?
thats right dave
also research2000 and some of the tv polls have a democrat bias, IPP, AP and Battleground have a republican bias.
Ramussen is neither.
In Ramussen O has not gone below 50 for a loooong time
looking at todays four strategic vision polls and noticing how heavily they bias to the republicans, I’d be worried about Georgia if I was McCain.
Insider Advantage has Obama leading 48-47 in Georgia, so I’m now counting it as a swing state and including it in my aggregates list.
strange you should mention Georgia
Inside Advantage/POll Position Poll
Obama, 48 percent
McCain, 47 percent
woah
Damn you William
😛
where will the blue march stop – Kansas?
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14895.html
according to this Obama has a ten point lead in Ohio (third poll in two days to show this) but its basically tied in Florida, hanging chad country.
diog, are we electing a potus or an african witch doctor to cure the us ills…. Santiago aeropuerto
SNIP: Unproductive comment deleted – The Management.
Match point #9836. I mean how MANY times can one campaign stuff it up? If it isn’t McCain, it is the loony wackos who follow him …..
Good call Dio 😉 …….
[
Diogenes
Can I just make a quick prediction? That lady who was mutilated by the nasty black man is going to be a fraud. The B is too neat and even in depth to be done involuntarily. I’m guessing she turns out to be a very sick puppy. I have been wrong before but I’m pretty confident on this one.
]
[
Fox News VP: If McCain Worker ‘Mutilation’ Story Is a Hoax His Campaign Is ‘Over’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/greg-mitchell/fox-news-vp-if-mccain-wor_b_137522.html
]
[
Ashley Todd Fake “Mutilation” Exposed
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/24/mccain-supporter-who-clai_n_137484.html
]
[
“McCain Adviser Endorses Obama”
Charles Fried, a professor at Harvard Law School, has long been one of the most important conservative thinkers in the United States. Under President Reagan, he served, with great distinction, as Solicitor General of the United States. Since then, he has been prominently associated with several Republican leaders and candidates, most recently John McCain, for whom he expressed his enthusiastic support in January.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/24/mccain-adviser-endorses-o_n_137590.html
]
[
“Without going through the details too much, she’s gravely ill,” Obama told Roberts in an interview that aired today on “GMA.”
Besides the hip, Obama said, “She had some other problems that were getting worse. You know, we weren’t sure, and I’m still not sure, whether she makes it to Election Day.
“We’re all praying and we hope she does,” he said.
]
Yes, we do hope she does …..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/24/obama-arrives-in-hawaii_n_137536.html
[
John McCain, who has harshly criticized the idea of sitting down with dictators without pre-conditions, appears to have done just that. In 1985, McCain traveled to Chile for a friendly meeting with Chile’s military ruler, General Augusto Pinochet, one of the world’s most notorious violators of human rights credited with killing more than 3,000 civilians and jailing tens of thousands of others.
The private meeting between McCain and dictator Pinochet has gone previously un-reported anywhere.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-dinges/mccain-meets-a-bloody-dic_b_137422.html
]
juliem
What a surprise! McCain’s biggest story for the week is a shameless race-baiting by a lunatic loser supporter. And McCain and Palin latched onto the story like the lemmings they are and both rang her to give support to the poor little darling. I’m interested to hear what their response is now.
Poor old Matty Drudge, who trumpeted the story, has a new headline. SHE MADE IT UP.
Today’s National Public Radio poll of 1000 RV in battleground states conducted by Greenberg, Quinlan, and Rosner shows Obama leading McCain 52-41 compared to the same poll in 2004 showing Bush leading Kerry 49-45. Obama is leading among Independents by 12. Can’t tell if they have done any earlier polls this year. The states polled were: CO, IA, IN, FL, MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI.
Obviously, the inclusion of currently deep blue states like NH, IA, MI AND WI would inflate the numbers, and so the remaining states would be much closer than 11%.
All the same, G, Q, R provides an interesting qualitative speculation for the 15 point turnaround from 2004:
“Obama has emerged as the stronger leader.
This is being solidified by a growing intensity of communication and voter contact where Obama’s campaign enjoys substantial advantages on traditional forms of campaigning, like TV advertising and door-to-door knocking, phone calls and mail, but also on all forms of internet-based communication.
The financial crisis was a turning point in the election – but largely because it clarified the basis for choosing the president and the qualities and policy approach each candidate brought to the moment.”
I find the last sentence particularly compelling as a counter to the CW that Obama is being swept along to an easy victory in the wake of the international financial crisis, which I reckon is similar to Cry-Baby Bill Hayden’s comment in 2003 (while giving Hawke the middle-finger salute on front page of “Daily Telegraph”) that a drover’s dog could have lead Labor to victory.