Presidential election minus 17 days

Two states have moved to the McCain column on my weighted aggregates: Ohio, where polling for McCain remains surprisingly strong, and West Virginia, where a 50-42 result from Public Policy Polling puts the state back where it should probably have been all along. Obama’s lead in North Dakota is largely based on what was probably a rogue poll. For all that, Obama retains leads of over 5 per cent in enough states to win the election (note that the table below will be updated as new polls become available, so the aforementioned might be out of date at the time you read this).

Obama McCain Sample D-EV R-EV
Michigan 56.0 37.0 3215 17
Maine 54.8 38.9 2185 4
Washington 55.1 40.5 2149 11
Iowa 54.0 39.7 1160 7
Minnesota 53.4 40.5 3177 10
Wisconsin 52.2 39.5 3567 10
Pennsylvania 52.7 40.3 3604 21
New Hampshire 53.3 42.1 3360 4
Ohio 51.8 40.8 3024 20
Virginia 51.5 43.1 3324 13
New Mexico 50.1 42.0 2427 5
Colorado 51.9 45.7 3038 9
North Carolina 50.7 45.5 4769 15
Nevada 49.5 45.4 3221 5
Indiana 48.8 45.0 3128 11
Missouri 49.2 45.4 3063 11
North Dakota 45.8 43.6 1206 3
Florida 46.6 45.9 3420 27
Montana 45.5 47.5 2003 3
Georgia 45.6 49.5 3533 15
West Virginia 43.0 50.0 3022 5
Others – – – 175 137
RCP/Total 50.2 42.8 – 378 160

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

925 comments on “Presidential election minus 17 days”

Comments Page 17 of 19
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  1. Julie,
    You’re on fire this morning!
    You’ve already done all the posts I was intending to do, and it goes without saying, done them better than I can.

  3. #767:

    [there will be a collective sigh of relief from all those who want a more reasonable foreign (and domestic) policy from the US.]

    There is nothing ‘reasonable’ about cross border strikes and raids into Pakistan, the Bush policy Obama wants to continue.

  7. [RCP national average up to Obama +7.9 this morning, just 0.3 off it’s highest point in the campaign]
    I think in the next few days some swing states like Ohio, Missouri and Florida will all solidify for Obama. I think that the national numbers going back out to some of their largest gaps is a sign that close state polls will start shifting his way, so on election day he will have 4 or 5 point leads in those states.

    I just can’t see how Obama will fail to win Missouri, Ohio and Florida if he is almost even in North Dakota, Montana and Georgia.

  11. [Apparently this is her “apology ad”. Which is odd, given she doesn’t actually apologises, but seems to actually just restate her views again…]

    LOL! “If you don’t vote for me you are voting against liberty, freedom, your heart, and against your children”.

  12. [Apparently this is her “apology ad”. Which is odd, given she doesn’t actually apologises, but seems to actually just restate her views again…]

    I don’t think it’s odd at all. People with her sorts of views don’t see themselves as being wrong, no matter what anyone else says. All she’ll do is keep saying she was misinterpreted, despite still believing she never was.

  15. [811 SHowsOn – nothing like a good versus bad political debate! At least she is looking like losing – faith in America restored.]
    She is like Palin and Bush. She thinks she is in a constant battle of good versus evil. It is not surprising that people who view the world that way end up completely embarrassing themselves. Their world-view is too simplistic, life is just a lot more complicated than that.

  16. Apologies if this has already been mentioned, but according to the NYT, Sarah Palin’s travelling hair stylist was paid $10,000 in the first two weeks of October. Her job is described in the Republican Party record as “communications consulting”.

    What, ten large to talk to Palin’s hair for two weeks?

    (Curiouser and curiouser.)

  17. Palin is right. Bush’s unpopularity is McCain’s main problem. But it’s kind of hard to criticise a man you voted with 90% of the time. No-ones going to buy it. The old “mavericky maverick” line gets trotted out again.

    It turns out that the “Cut-Nut” (Ashley Todd) is a Ron Paul supporter who went over to McCain. The neocons are really upset with Matty Drudge for leading with the story and dropping the ball. Of course, they neglect to mention the McCain campaigns role in publicising the race-bait smear.

    http://wonkette.com/403810/mccain-campaign-pushed-cut-nut-mutilation-myth-on-media

  18. 810

    It seems Bachmann is happy for the free marketeers to continue leading us towards financial armageddon.

    Every time I hear nut cases like her I understand a bit more about how something as sinister and evil as McCarthyism was allowed to take root in the US in the fifties. Fortunately these loonies are about to lose power for a long time.

  20. [Bachmann is only 3 points behind in the polls.]
    Sure, but she won 50 / 42 at the last election, and her electorate voted 57 / 42 for Bush in 2004.

  21. Bachmann’s opponent has oodles of money now and the RNC have pulled out of advertising for her.

    Now that McCain has lost, isn’t it time he started campaigning for a few marginal Congressmen and Senators like Bob Dole did when he knew he would lose?

  23. [Sure, but she won 50 / 42 at the last election, and her electorate voted 57 / 42 for Bush in 2004.]

    Indeed, but my point is that this isn’t some kind of ‘game changing’ election. The Republicans are definitely not dead and America has not changed.

  25. [Indeed, but my point is that this isn’t some kind of ‘game changing’ election. The Republicans are definitely not dead and America has not changed.]
    If the Republicans lose, that will be a huge change.

    Of course they won’t be “dead”. The Democrats suffered some big loses in 2002, but recovered them all in 2006.

  26. I’m a cold-hearted bastard but even I loved this story.

    [For me the most moving moment came when the family in front of me, comprising probably 4 generations of voters (including an 18 year old girl voting for her first time and a 90-something hunched-over grandmother), got their turn to vote. When the old woman left the voting booth she made it about halfway to the door before collapsing in a nearby chair, where she began weeping uncontrollably. When we rushed over to help we realized that she wasn’t in trouble at all but she had not truly believed, until she left the booth, that she would ever live long enough to cast a vote for an African-American for president. Anyone who doesn’t think that African-American turnout will absolutely SHATTER every existing record is in for a very rude surprise.]

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Early_voting_in_Evansville.html?showall

  27. Oz 823

    [Indeed, but my point is that this isn’t some kind of ‘game changing’ election. The Republicans are definitely not dead and America has not changed].

    If you think there is fundamentally no difference between the election of Obama/Biden or McCain/Palin you just haven’t been paying attention. There is a world of difference. But if you’ve made up your mind, I am not going to try and change it.

    The Repubs may not be politically dead if they lose, but trust me, for a long time they’ll feel like they are.

  28. [The Repubs may not be politically dead if they lose, but trust me, for a long time they’ll feel like they are.]
    At least 8 years! 😀

  29. Righto, 10 days out, and as I said I would, here is my prediction, add it to the comp:

    Obama 322 (picks up CO, IN, IA, NV, NM, OH, VA)

    McCain 216 (holds MO, NC, FL, MT, ND)

  30. [If you think there is fundamentally no difference between the election of Obama/Biden or McCain/Palin you just haven’t been paying attention.]

    America is far more than who is in the White House.

  31. 830

    [America is far more than who is in the White House].

    That’s a motherhood statement that no-one could disagree with. But whoever is in the whitehouse sure makes a hell of a difference to people’s lives, not only in America but across the world. For starters 4000+ young Americans would still be alive today if Gore had won and Bush and his neocons weren’t able to invade Iraq.

  33. 832

    [Darn I think you’re forgetting the countless Iraqis that would also be alive… unless they’re not as important!]

    Itep Of course they are just as important – to any decent person. But not apparently to Bush and his neocons, who liked to refer to them as colateral damage.

  34. [Itep Of course they are just as important – to any decent person. But not apparently to Bush and his neocons, who liked to refer to them as colateral damage.]
    Well, we should also consider the few hundred thousand Iraqis who died between 1991 and 2001 due to inadequate health care and sanitation. PART of this has to be blamed on the economic sanctions imposed by the U.N., and enforced by the U.S. Air Force.

    I don’t want to start a huge argument, but a lot of innocent lives have been lost in Iraq over a very long period of time, which should be a concern to all progressive people. We can’t say innocent people started being killed only 5 years go.

  38. In The Washington Post on 25 Oct., The Cuban American National Foundation, the largest Cuban exile organisation, endorses…….wait for it…………….Barack Obama for Prez!

    From CANF Chair, Jorge Mas Santos:

    “Both presidential candidates have made clear that they want to help the Cuban people achieve freedom. But Barack Obama’s forward-looking and proactive approach toward empowering the Cuban people is more in line with these proposals than John McCain’s vow to continue the Bush administration’s policy.”

    Juliem will lol, even rofl, about this one!

    All the same, I still won’t be adding FL to my Obama potential pickup list due to the FL voting system being decimated by a despicable “budget cut” reduction of the number and opening hours of polling places by the same Repub state legislators who gave us the hanging chad in the 2000 election.

    Early voters needed to stand in line for 4-6 hours this week. We’ve got to thank the gods or whomever for the independence of our AEC. I’ve staffed the early voting office in my NSW city for a few elections, and 5 minutes would be the longest anyone would have to wait. On election day, it’s never been longer than 10 min. in the busiest CBD polling place. Further proof why the Repubs are the real, pro-American democracy party.

  39. Oh dear, it seems the McCain camp was involved in concocting that fake “McCain Supporter is assaulted” news story! Any decent Republicans should disavow this lot immediately – McCain has sold his soul to the forces of darkness!

  40. 838

    jjulian – The polling place at the Melbourne Town Hall is infamous for its long queues on polling day – anything up to 30 or 40 minutes or more – but nothing approaching four or more hours like in Florida. That’s just a disgraceful lack of customer service. I can’t understand how they’re allowed to get away with it.

  41. 839

    [Oh dear, it seems the McCain camp was involved in concocting that fake “McCain Supporter is assaulted” news story!]

    evan – What is the evidence for that claim?.

  42. I still don’t understand why there’s no national independent electoral commission in the US and a uniform system of voting. Surely there’s no basis for allowing 4 hour queues to vote and if there’s that problem the national government should be able to take direct action to rectify it.

  46. 842

    [I still don’t understand why there’s no national independent electoral commission in the US and a uniform system of voting].

    Itep – I agree. For the country that prides itself on taking democracy to the world it’s a sick joke. At least in Australia our electoral system is something we can all be proud of..

  47. [I still don’t understand why there’s no national independent electoral commission in the US and a uniform system of voting.]
    Because the right of states is extremely important the Americans. They associate federal intervention in anything as a symptom of big government. This means that the presidential election is really 50 state elections that happen to be tallied together via the electoral college.

    But I completely agree with you, they could end a whole heap of voter intimidation, abuse, and confusion if they had a bi-partisan federal body that set all the rules for the election.

    Consider that they have a bi-partisan Presidential debates commission which we don’t have. So they are one up on us there. Here essentially whoever is P.M. has a veto power over the conditions of debates with the leader of the opposition.
    [Evan is not “Progressive” enough to have facts to back his wild rantings.]
    The McCain campaign didn’t start the story, but they certainly kicked it on via their cable TV surrogates.

  48. Oh dear… sounds similar to the silly Lindsay pamphlets saga from our election. Desperate party hacks taking matters into their own hands and damaging the overall campaign.

  49. The answer is that the US is a federation, and all elections are conducted at state level or lower. There is no national election authority because there are no national elections. The only “national” positions are the President and the Vice-President, but they are elected by the Electoral College, not directly by the people.

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