Either due to the market meltdown, the debate or both, much has changed in Gallup tracking poll land since our last thrilling instalment.
We also have this entertaining survey on Australian attitudes to the presidential race from UMR Research, showing 66 per cent of respondents preferring Barack Obama against 13 per cent for John McCain. Sarah Palin and (especially) George W. Bush also appear to be none too popular in our part of the world.
The question is – can Obama keep the lead up? And for how long?
Methinks his lead will start to contract after (if!) the bailout is passed and the economy disappears from the front pages for a few days…
Swing Lowe,
For 36 days 😉
yes, he is the culprit. blame it on Alan Greenspan who once cautioned the stock market not too be “too exuberance”.
[“Innovation has brought about a multitude of new products, such as subprime loans and niche credit programs for immigrants. Such developments are representative of the market responses that have driven the financial services industry throughout the history of our country … With these advances in technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers.
The widespread adoption of these models has reduced the costs of evaluating the creditworthiness of borrowers, and in competitive markets cost reductions tend to be passed through to borrowers. Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit, lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately.
These improvements have led to rapid growth in subprime mortgage lending; indeed, today subprime mortgages account for roughly 10 percent of the number of all mortgages outstanding, up from just 1 or 2 percent in the early 1990s.”
Alan Greenspan (4 April 2005). “Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan, Consumer Finance At the Federal Reserve System’s Fourth Annual Community Affairs Research Conference, Washington, D.C.”, Federal Reserve Board.]
[yes, he is the culprit. blame it on Alan Greenspan who once cautioned the stock market not too be “too exuberance”.]
The easiest way to stop the stock market from being too exuberant is to increase interest rates, but Greenspan refused to do that, which is why so much bad credit is now killing the market.
It is going to be 36 very interesting days!
Particularly I’m looking forward to the VP discussion.
This is going to have a huge impact on the polls.
I use a widget to keep track of the progression of polls. The widget shows the election polls by strength of states.
In addition to other different graphical visualizations of data, this one displays the progression of votes over time.
Hereby you can see how/if the states have moved!
It gives a great overview and it is updated as the polls come in!
http://www.youcalc.com/apps/1221747067033
… and its easy to put on your blog and fits in your sidebar!
Make a difference, keep on voting!
I note that William is still struggling to contain his enthusiasm for his favourite thread. 😉
The UMR poll he links reflects PB. Of Labor voters, 79% want Obama to win and only 6% want McCain to win. Now that Adam has gone, where are we going find that 6%! Perhaps Ron could take one for the team.
For William’s benefit though, post 5 looks and smells a lot like a bot post. Quite a few very similar blog comments posted in the last few hours if you Google some of the phrases used.
Plus, he used my favourite footballers name in vain.
Who bothered to commission a poll into Australian perspectives on the US presidential election? A real waste of money.
I think some commentators are right in that Palin would do better if not trying to parrot some learned responses. Under pressure she is trying to remember all the points she has learnt and in consequence sounds incoherent and painful.
They may as well let her answer as best she can from whatever it is she knows and whatever common sense she has – at least (one hopes) it would be logical and coherent – even if ignorant of some of the facts and realities. Better to sound ignorant that sound like a nut case.
Focus on Iowa.
http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2008/09/30/1932997-mccain-focusing-on-iowa-despite-polls
Obama’s doing well now, let’s hope he can crush McCain in Nov. The Aus survey seems to be about right. A pity Labor can never hope for those kinds of figures.
Itep: I heart that survey. To use an American metaphor, it shows that Australian states are naturally “blue”, not “red”. Even our most conservative states (W.A. and Qld.) dislike McCain, and they dislike Palin more.
Re 12,
Too bad that we can’t translate that dislike for Republicans into dislike for the Libs and Nats 😉
[..A pity Labor can never hope for those kinds of figures.]
There would be no other surving party if Labor got figures like that.
steve
McCain has completely lost it if he thinks he’s got a chance in Iowa. He should be in MI or PA. One has to question the man’s sanity.
I was pleased to see that all of McCain’s talk about getting a bipartisan approach to the bailout actually bore fruit in his home state. He must have a lot of pull in Arizona. The Dems and the Repugs voted unanimously together. There were four Dems and four Repugs in Congress and all eight voted AGAINST the bailout. He must be real popular in Arizona.
Obama got a level vote in Illinois with the Dems 7-4 and Repugs 2-5.
This is McCain’s only chance to ascend the pinnacle of power in the US.
He is now in desperation mode and the next 6 weeks should be interesting.
There will be no stone left unturned in his scramble for votes. ANY VOTES.
Fasten the seatbelts and enjoy the ride. Can’t wait for the VP’s debate Thursday.
RealPolitics is now giving North Carolina to Obama if you look at their EV map with no tossup states 😉 ……. up to 301 now folks 🙂
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
Here’s Geoff Elliott’s take on it in the Oz.
[But things have changed again. Back into the toss-up state categories are the Republican terrorities of Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana. Check out the toss-up states here and look at the margins of victory for George W. Bush in 2000 in the last three states I cite _ that gives you an indication of where the electorate is at and crisis that is now engulfing the McCain camp.]
And finishes with the “Money Quote”.
[Old Republican hand Pat Buchanan just said on MSNBC that John McCain’s campaign is “in extremis”, noting that the Wall Street crash is “disastrous” for Republicans. And conservative Republican Bill Kristol, an old friend of McCain’s wrote in the New York Times today that McCain “is on course to lose the presidential election”.]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/geoffelliott/index.php
I question why McCain is campaigning in Iowa.
Obama has been surprisingly strong there. McCain’s got a (much) better shot in neighbouring Minnesota and Wisconsin.
[Back into the toss-up state categories are the Republican terrorities of Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana.]
The only one of those four that haven’t been polled recently (i.e. since the financial crisis started in earnest) is Indiana. I’m fascinated to see what movement (if any) has taken place there. It’s a difficult state to figure out because it is demographically unique – a very red state in the middle of the very purple midwest…
You guys have been too harsh on George W. he does have some usefulness:
Well, It’s getting colder over there boom boom
Interesting point all the Congressman from Sarah Palin voted against the bail-out.
If the Market tanks or a major new crisis develops then Thursday VP debate may wreck the McCain campaign.
I was blog surfing U.S blogs and there was one blog that I can’t recall at present but if William would like I will attempt to locate, the Blog at a serious of state polls and it was Interesting to see several states that voted for Bush leaning towards Obama.
I think Obama will go on and win in November but it will be a close result.
juliem has already provided the link to the blog I mentioned in previous post
What do you mean ‘all the Congressman from Sarah Palin’?
Interesting link to what may be the political repercussions of this morning’s bailout vote:
http://rossdouthat.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/three_scenarios.php
Personally, I don’t think that the 3rd scenario described is accurate – recessions have come and gone (several times) in the past 40 years and there hasn’t been too many radical political realignments in the US (1968 is the only one that comes to mind, which happened during the Vietnam war and counterculture protests).
My pick is that McCain will continue to suffer until the bailout is sorted out (won’t be done by Thursday our time earliest) and it will then be up to him to cut back as much into Obama’s lead as fast as possible.
As for Congress – we all know that the Dems will retain both the House and Senate – but, whilst I see strong gains for the Dems in the Senate, I only see a modest pickup of seats for them in House…
LTEP,
I think Mexicanbeemer means the Congressman from Alaska (Rep. Young – R).
Given that he’s in the fight for his political life (he’s trailing by 14 points in the last poll out there), it was highly unlikely that he was ever going to vote for what was considered to be a highly unpopular bailout (although I think people’s opinion of it will change now that the value of their 401-Ks took a major hit yesterday)…
The economy is not going to dissappear between now and November. The only way it will stabilise is if they do a (very costly to taxpayers) deal. In the mean time the falout continues. The despeate announcements lately have been about avoiding that fallout. Never mind the share price falls (still only about 25% overall, which compares to the one day loss in 1987) the real drama will be the coming collapse of equity funds and the employment consequences as incomes decline. Australia is much better off and the government here is acting quite sensibly to protect us (insane revenue blocking measures in the Senate aside). But the US is headed for a long recession – nobody will loan them the cash to get out of it.
[What do you mean ‘all the Congressman from Sarah Palin’?]
I think he meant Alaska.
This new Rasmussen poll says that it is about even between those who support and oppose the bail out:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/general_business/opposition_to_bailout_plan_falls_dramatically
It’s basically a third each in favour, opposed, and unsure or uncommitted.
So I think the idea that it is strongly opposed by the public is wrong.
I think this add on Google might be a bit out of date or misleading, somehow!
[Annuities, IRAs, 401ks. Insurance FINANCIAL services. Retiring soon? Receive higher retirement income. Safe!]
I return today to see 1.25 trillion lost , bailout fails , 12 votes decided $800billion
95 Democrats and 133 Republicans killed it and is anyone so foolish as to suggest only th Republicans killed it when a 10 year maths student will know EITHER Partys votes killed it , so both ar equally responsible
Econamically th bailout was/is necessary ONLY because of its flow on effects on both US & world economy
I must say from my hart I would hav favored a ronanomics solution…let all those greedy and/or irresponsible credit decsion making Banks etc go broke , let there high powered brown paper finacial engineers go ta ta without parachute $ exits , provide finacial relief for employees affected re welfare etc , wow i’ve still got 790 billion left…so 120 billion for universal healthcare , ‘trade’ with viable banks to rejig loans on capacity to repay so homeowners hav opportunity to reasonable repay wthin means but keep houses & stabilise house prices , implement a ‘poor’ climb ladder program , and with rest ring th Chinese to keep it…and sack any who won’t be reprogrammed to accept adequate ‘regulation’, standards & disclosure and balanced budgets , or maybe just abolish econamists anyway
ShowsOn @ 28,
I read an article today (sorry forgot to save the link) which said that the safety of ones seat was directly related to how they voted on the bailout plan. Those who were in tough reelection races were overwhelmingly voting against it. Ditto for the opposite end of the spectrum. And for those who aren’t up for reelection? They voted (think the numbers were about 2 dozen or so?) all but two for the bailout plan.
If they knew they didn’t have to answer to anyone or that they were safe, they voted for it. Otherwise not ……
Ron
Any chance you could support McCain? We badly need a Repug supporter to bash up now that Adam has left, hopefully temporarily.
The ronanomics solution looks good to me.
Both Parties killed the bailout but they are not equally responsible. 66% Dems said yes and only 30% Repugs agreed so the Repugs are more responsible which must be eating away at McCain like a cancer.
O’Possum Factor
#1124 dated 30/9/08
“I can only go with the data Dio. The alternative to observable reality is
wishful thinking.”
O’Possum Factor you only ‘go with th data’ when its not adverse to Obama…when its adverse to Obama say like strongly linking him to corrupt sleeze Rezko , then you ‘don’t go with th data’ ….then don’t go with NYT journalistic investigations or ABC News , ah wishful thinking then
Intrade now has Obama at 62.2 vs McCain at 37.6. State by state markets at 338 – 200. Very ugly numbers for the Repubs.
One of McCain’s economic advisers co-wrote a book in 2000 predicting that the Dow would hit 36,000 in a decade:
http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Strategy-Profiting/dp/0609806998/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1222774439&sr=8-3
Apparently the Dow Jones is now lower than when Bush was first elected.
[I read an article today (sorry forgot to save the link) which said that the safety of ones seat was directly related to how they voted on the bailout plan. Those who were in tough reelection races were overwhelmingly voting against it. Ditto for the opposite end of the spectrum. And for those who aren’t up for reelection? They voted (think the numbers were about 2 dozen or so?) all but two for the bailout plan.
If they knew they didn’t have to answer to anyone or that they were safe, they voted for it. Otherwise not ……]
The best break down of this sort I have been able to find was in the Washington Post. All 17 Republicans who won their first term at the last election voted against it! How gutless.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122273311165788291.html?mod=todays_us_page_one
[I must say from my hart I would hav favored a ronanomics solution…let all those greedy and/or irresponsible credit decsion making Banks etc go broke]
Most likely this would result in a world-wide recession that would take a few years for us to get out of. I don’t see how that would help improve living standards.
[or maybe just abolish econamists anyway]
LOL! Yeah Ron, it is all the fault of economists. 😀
[O’Possum Factor you only ‘go with th data’ when its not adverse to Obama…when its adverse to Obama say like strongly linking him to corrupt sleeze Rezko]
Exactly what Rezko data are you referring to!?
[Intrade now has Obama at 62.2 vs McCain at 37.6. State by state markets at 338 – 200. Very ugly numbers for the Repubs.]
Obama was at 62.5 earlier in the day. But still, he is up by about 4.5% in the last 36 hours.
Having said that, he was around 60 shortly after his convention, so it seems what has really happened is the Republican convention / Palin factor has washed out, and we are now back basically to where we were before, plus a boost because of the economic issues.
Interestingly, according to this chart Obama’s figures started to take off when Lehman filed for bankruptcy:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/09/on_the_state_of_the_race_1.html
There has been some slight Intrade movement on Palin being withdrawn. It’s now up to 11.9 from 9.5. Nothing to get excited about at this stage but maybe worth keeping an eye on.
ShowsOn
didnt you know about rezko (real name-beezlebub)
apparently after chewing on some latino babies he sets out to enslave some more hos and bros to run his skanky shakedown loansharking slumlord empire.
after lunch he moonlites as a high school careers advisor sic,subverting the youth of tomorrow with his evil plans.
or so i heard 🙂
Au contraire my good man O’Ronnly @ 33 – your definition of data (encompassing everything from poorly interpreted pieces of colour research from the NYT, right through to Republican talking point memos and old socks) differs significantly from mine (numbers).
Anyway – that’s an old argument full of heat and little light. I’ve found a site that should keep you occupied for hours 😀
http://obamacrimes.com/
Enjoy!
Shows on – I take offence to blaming it on the economists.
I blame the hippies!
Why? Who cares – this is the US thread where reasons dont seem to be needed very often 😛
ADAM
#1107
Yes your post description of most Obamabots here was 100% accurate , typical elitists whose snobbery & arrogance is a character trait & only equalled by there blind unobjective zealotary belief in Obama , who is a phoney & is anti traditional core ‘left’ policys Th oither Obamabot group th non elitists Obama zealotary believers hav simply copied there brethrens blogging traits
Interestingly when there was a US thread earlier in th year till July , there were approx 30 odd Obamabots then there , 95% of whom who had IDENTICAL traits to first paragraph description…so bad th moderator closed th site down , and they formed there own independent thread (which we of us non obama believers left behind christianed appropriately th obamabot “Gilligans Island’)
As a Labor supporter , I find both Thread’s sets of elitist /zealotary Obamabots completely non traditional aussie Labor both in approach & standards I must also say Obamabots generally display a lame interest in core Labor ‘left’ values provable by there strong unequivacol defences of Obama ,& gallingingly even when phoney Obama is 100% in clear unambiguous breach thereof , and therefore hav always assumed they’re in th far left fringe non Labor zone
Actualy , being a public person you made a wise decision to disassociate yourself from this lot
Me being a non public person can continue to post here unaffected , although primarily to engage th minuscule % of genuine Labor supporters here who believe Obama is ‘left’ of th conservative Republican and belive a change from a Republican admin/dim wit policy corrupt Bush will be benefical I hav no problems with this miniscule % at all So that’s only why I’m still here against th Obama hordes…and still Labor and still defiant
Has there been any poll in the US since the bailout bill was defeated to see whether the majority of voters blame the democrats or the republicans for it? I think McCain is toast either way because of the way he attachd himself to it, but there are still all teh congressional and gubernatorial contests and I imagine this could influence them greatly.
[Has there been any poll in the US since the bailout bill was defeated to see whether the majority of voters blame the democrats or the republicans for it?]
No official numbers yet, but a soon to be released ABC News poll will apparently shows that they blame the Republicans (surprise, surprise)
http://www.politicshome.com/USA/#
[George Stephanopoulos – ABC, Good Morning America
Stephanopoulos stated that the earliest anything can get done in Congress will be Wednesday. He said that “the power is in Wall Street now” as “another dropoff in the market on Wall Street would create more pressure” on Congress and force action in Congress.
Stephanopoulos revealed that a new ABC News poll coming out this morning asked voters who they blame for the failure of the vote. “The voters seem to be blaming the Republicans in Congress more than the Democrats in Congress” and “for the overall economic situation…voters tend to blame President Bush.”]
Thanks Dario, I think that is significant. Asuming Obama will win now he will want a majority in Congress and teh Senate to work with. If the republicans are blamed for the bailout then I expect he will get both.
[who is a phoney & is anti traditional core ‘left’ policys]
How ‘core left’ is McCain’s policy of giving a huge tax cut to rich people by making the Bush tax cuts permanent?
What about his policy of making people put their social security into privatised accounts that are on the stock market?
How ‘core left’ is McCain’s policy of staying in Iraq for 100 years if necessary?
Why don’t you support Obama’s policy of universal health care, and cheaper health care coverage for those who already have it?
How is it ‘core left wing’ to support a V.P. candidate who thinks the earth is less than 7000 years old. I mean, doesn’t the left cherish enlightenment values of evidence and logical reasoning?
I think your idea of what constitutes left wing ideology needs reconsideration.
Some interesting analysis over at 538 on why the Battleground poll is so far away from all the other major polls at the moment (+2 McCain as opposed to +6 to +9 for Obama). It seems Battleground have their age weightings very, very skewed:
[Take a look for yourself at the “weighted tables” that Battleground released a couple of days ago (PDF). These crosstabs provide a ton of detail — kudos to Battleground for doing so — but unfortunately there is one red flag. This is the age makeup of their weighted sample:
18-34 17%
35-44 12%
45-64 40%
65+ 31%
Intuitively, this probably looks fairly wrong to you — almost twice as many age 65+ voters as age18-34 voters? And in fact, it almost certainly is wrong. By comparison, here is the approximate age composition of the electorate in 2004, as according to the US Census Bureau**:
18-34 26%
35-44 17%
45-64 38%
65+ 19%
Battleground’s numbers are not even close. About 19 percent of voters were aged 65 and older in 2004, as compared to the 31 percent in the Battleground sample. On the other hand, 43 percent of voters were aged 18-44, as opposed to Battleground’s 29 percent. These differences are much, much too large to be attributable to chance alone.]
[Thanks Dario, I think that is significant. Asuming Obama will win now he will want a majority in Congress and teh Senate to work with. If the republicans are blamed for the bailout then I expect he will get both.]
In fact, there is an outside chance the Democrats will win 60 Senators, which is enough to stop filibusters.
This page says the Democrats will win about 55 seats, but with a 15% chance they will get to 60, which is the highest level it has been all year:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/senate%20polls
Rasmussen 51/45
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Rasmussen is pretty stable now. McCain needs another stunt!
[Rasmussen is pretty stable now. McCain needs another stunt]
Maybe his next stunt could be a press conference to announce no new stunts? “Read my lips, no new stunts.”
I just think this week is very crucial. There’s already a big gap in the polls (6% means something like 9 million votes), let’s say Biden only just edges Palin out in the V.P. debate, that will equal another few days of positive coverage for Obama, even more if Palin’s performance is attrocious. So how exactly does McCain then turn it around with just 4 weeks to go?