Newspoll today brings us its quarterly geographic and demographic analysis, which our good friend Possum has converted into many pretty graphs. The most intruging aspect is that Labor has apparently gone off the boil in Western Australia and South Australia. Labor’s problems in the former territory hardly need reiterating in light of the events of last month, but the defeat of the Carpenter government has probably lanced the boil in terms of federal implications. Recent state polling from Newspoll and The Advertiser, along with anecdotal evidence regarding the Murray-Darling issue, underscores the point that South Australia could loom as a problem for Rudd. Luckily for Labor, they emerged from the 2007 election with healthy buffers in all the state’s traditionally marginal seats: 4.4 per cent in Kingston, 5.1 per cent in Hindmarsh, 6.7 per cent in Wakefield and 7.7 per cent in Makin.
Two other potentially significant indicators: Labor has maintained its honeymoon bounce in the 18-34 age category while losing it in the older groups; Kevin Rudd’s approval rating in South Australia has fallen 15 per cent since the first quarter.