Newspoll geographic and demographic analysis

Newspoll today brings us its quarterly geographic and demographic analysis, which our good friend Possum has converted into many pretty graphs. The most intruging aspect is that Labor has apparently gone off the boil in Western Australia and South Australia. Labor’s problems in the former territory hardly need reiterating in light of the events of last month, but the defeat of the Carpenter government has probably lanced the boil in terms of federal implications. Recent state polling from Newspoll and The Advertiser, along with anecdotal evidence regarding the Murray-Darling issue, underscores the point that South Australia could loom as a problem for Rudd. Luckily for Labor, they emerged from the 2007 election with healthy buffers in all the state’s traditionally marginal seats: 4.4 per cent in Kingston, 5.1 per cent in Hindmarsh, 6.7 per cent in Wakefield and 7.7 per cent in Makin.

Two other potentially significant indicators: Labor has maintained its honeymoon bounce in the 18-34 age category while losing it in the older groups; Kevin Rudd’s approval rating in South Australia has fallen 15 per cent since the first quarter.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

116 comments on “Newspoll geographic and demographic analysis”

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  1. Thanks Vera

    agree with your comment about no grandstanding , isn’t it a pleasure to see a dinkum politcan , sure he’ll make mistakes along road but th core ‘left’ policys he believes in to be implemented overall will benefit ‘oz’

    Yes was abit naughty…again , did venture again & was an affiable thorn (again) amongst so many precious petals Now apart from th unbelievable religous fervour of support displayed that we agree upon thats so different from supporters of Kevin07 , is political supporters who only read th equivalent of th OO …but worse lots of equivalent OO’ every day ….like how do you form objective thoughts if your sources ar so biggotedly biased

    whereas in ‘oz’ , do like a number of writers in Fin Review , Age & SMH and give all of Uncle Ruperts newspapers a miss

  2. What is it with Michelle “La Stupenda” Grattan and “tests”?

    [But with an interest rate fall of 0.25 or 0.5 of a percentage point coming next week, Rudd and Swan are facing a real political test, coming under pressure to say the banks should pass on the whole rise.]

    Every piece she writes has a new one. Fielding is a test. Interest rates are a test. Turnbull is a test. Petrol excise is a test. The budget was a big test.

    It’s clear to me she still thinks the Rudd government is illegitimate, winning an election last year (which was a pretty big test all on its own, I would’ve thought) on the back of what she famously called “counter-intuitive” polls that had been indicating Labor had been ahead since early 2006.

    There are other predictables in every Grattan article. I went searching for the “Heads I win, tails you lose” section, and found it pretty quickly:

    [There are two extreme scenarios for what lies ahead. At the most optimistic end: the Congress could quickly pass the bail-out, which could work a minor miracle and the crisis could abate fairly soon. At the pessimistic end: the bail-out could fail in Congress, or pass but not do the trick and the meltdown could worsen.]

    That pretty-well covers it all: the bill could pass, it could fail, or it might not work anyway. There might be a miracle… or there might not be. Any other squares on the roulette table need a chip placed on them before we spin the wheel? Why, yes! Her next sentence is:

    [There are many positions between.]

    …rounding out Michelle’s Delphic epistle of fearless predictions.

    So whether everything works, fails, or works at first and then fails, or anything happens in-between, Australia’s diva of political journalism has it covered.

    An newspaper gal through-and-through, La Stupenda lives and dies by the old reporter’s maxim: “You read it here first.”

  3. What about this story! Home Affairs Minister Bob Debus met with senior Australian Crime Commission officials, who promptly opened a file on the minister and included details of their night out:

    Debus is the Minister in charge of the Australian Crime Commission, so it is a bit suspect for them to start a file on him without any good reason to do so.

    If this is true heads will roll.

  4. [The Liberal Federal Executive has finally got around to approving the Liberal National Party.]
    So does this mean the Liberal Party in Queensland no longer counts as the Queensland division of the Liberal Party?

    If the LNP and Liberals both stand candidates in the same seats at the next election then they will be doing Kevin Rudd a huge favour.

  5. before they can field candidates they have to work out which party room each member should  meet in and just who can/cant vote at each meeting, then their voters will have to try and work out who of the plethora of candidates they want to vote for, what a schemozzle!

  6. The infrastructure timetable advance has me thinking that Rudd & co. are expecting to have to do some pump priming via large projects in the next few years.

    It could actually be the perfect time, as the world economy slows, all those tradespeople and engineers employed by the resource boom are going to need somewhere to head to.

  7. i guess that will stop the whiners that Rudd’s doing nothing, the dills dont realise that it’s just as well we have a prudent government in now, one that carefully examines policy before implimenting it, rather than one who’ll paper over the cracks and gloss over the nitty gritty facts.

  8. Judith Barnes

    2 things wrong with your assertion

    The fund was set up by the prudent Howard government, who invested this amount for future capital projects, ie if the economy in the future slows, this will kick start the economy with 20billion…… that would be your prudent government

    Rudd is just tapping into the kitty set up by Howard, and the economy had been slowing for a year now, people are still paying too high interest rate and inflation is still high, there is an argument for using this kitty later (to not increase inflation) or earlier (ie NSW in recession for 1 year now – incompetant government)

    To say Rudd is doing a lot by saying he is using Howard and Costello’s kitty is a bit rich

  9. [The fund was set up by the prudent Howard government, who invested this amount for future capital projects, ie if the economy in the future slows, this will kick start the economy with 20billion…… that would be your prudent government]

    Saving money and never spending it while the house falls down around you is not ‘prudent’

  10. To quote the chief economist at the ANZ Bank – the Howard government ‘wasted every dollar of the surpluses’. The kitties they developed were to keep election time pork barrelling money away from ministers that actually might want to have policy. The current government has decided that the money that should have been spent on infrastructure over the past 10 years better get spent from now on to improve productivity and capacities, whilst we still have some China boom left.

  11. Showson
    “What about this story! Home Affairs Minister Bob Debus met with senior Australian Crime Commission officials, who promptly opened a file on the minister and included details of their night out”

    they still think Howard is giving the orders 🙁

    ps debus aint the only labor pollie they have a file on i venture!

  12. c’mon dovif, that fund was set up from the left over monies from the mining boom, that is after Howard had greased the palms of his top end of the town mates and spreed it vote buying, Costello had an embarrassment of riches that even Howard couldnt spend, the whole boom money should have been spent on infrastructure, hospitals, schools and universities, this country could have been the envy of the world instead of our utilities, ports and roads being second grade and we should have had by now one of the most skilled workforces in the world, Costello didnt have to stir a finger the money rolled in in a tidal wave and most was wasted just as quickly, Howard and Costello have a lot to answer for, just think of where we’d be now if that money was used properly, think of the Iraq war waste and what about the enormous amounts an egotistical Howard wasted on ads to try sell himself and Hiacynth intending to waste 1/2 mill. on redoing the diningroom to seat another two guests, what about the enormous amount to wallpaper the prime ministerial plane that Howard used for his never ending trips too and from Sydney and Canberra because the Lodge wasnt good enough for him,i could go on and on, add all of that to the rampant pork barrelling that was the Howard/Costello legacy, Rudd even tries to save the public purse by staying with our ambassadors rather than $10,000 a night hotels as the Howards and co did, i’d say he’s a prudent PM.i dont often rant but this is one thing that has me fired up.

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