Newspoll geographic and demographic analysis

Newspoll today brings us its quarterly geographic and demographic analysis, which our good friend Possum has converted into many pretty graphs. The most intruging aspect is that Labor has apparently gone off the boil in Western Australia and South Australia. Labor’s problems in the former territory hardly need reiterating in light of the events of last month, but the defeat of the Carpenter government has probably lanced the boil in terms of federal implications. Recent state polling from Newspoll and The Advertiser, along with anecdotal evidence regarding the Murray-Darling issue, underscores the point that South Australia could loom as a problem for Rudd. Luckily for Labor, they emerged from the 2007 election with healthy buffers in all the state’s traditionally marginal seats: 4.4 per cent in Kingston, 5.1 per cent in Hindmarsh, 6.7 per cent in Wakefield and 7.7 per cent in Makin.

Two other potentially significant indicators: Labor has maintained its honeymoon bounce in the 18-34 age category while losing it in the older groups; Kevin Rudd’s approval rating in South Australia has fallen 15 per cent since the first quarter.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

116 comments on “Newspoll geographic and demographic analysis”

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  2. Interesting that NSW has held up reasonably well, despite all the problems of the state government. Maybe people are better at separating state and federal issues than we give them credit for.

  3. In fact Labor is still ahead of where it was at the election in every state, as measured by 2PV, though only just in WA and SA.
    SA may be partly water and partly pensions – it’s the oldest state demographically.

  4. I’m surprised that SA Labor has dipped so much? Water is beyond their control, so I don’t understand what issue is pushing this. WA is more understandable, given the scandal prone previous government.

    Also Australia’s trade performance is improving:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/02/2380274.htm?section=justin

    Still, as GG would say, Labor has always given us higher trade surpluses, so they must wear the blame for this one too 🙂

  11. i dont detect much anti Rudd here in Adelaide, saying that the Advertiser has been running an anti state and federal labor government vendetta for some time, Martin Hamilton Smith isnt THAT popular, even though the Advertiser poll shows the libs and labor as neck and neck in the state polls Rann out polls him easily as PP, Rann is pulling his socks up and most folk like him so i think things will change there.

  12. I suspect from comments by Adelaide PBers that many think they have been “stitched” by the MD Water agreement.

    Perhaps Diogenes could comment.

  13. Missed today’s discussion on Swan and banks etc. but caught this:

    [Australia’s “greatest ever Treasurer” is out and about giving economic advice to Kevin Rudd. I thought Costello’s economic management was part of the reason we are in the difficulties Rudd & Swan are now dealing with.]

    If anyone’s interested there will be a full hour-long interview with Peter Costello tomorrow on ABC Radio’s The Conversation Hour from 11am Easter States (maybe the West as well, don’t know for sure).

    By my reckoning this would be the longest uninterrupted interview Cozzie has done for quite a while, and although The Conversation Hour is not normally confrontational, could be interesting.

    Also noted that McCrann was supportive of Swan. As was Greg Sheridan of Rudd this morning. Looks like the “word” may have been passed down from Rupert: first Paul Kelly, then Milne, now McCrann and Sheridan. Still Pies and Dennis to go. BTW where is Dennis?

  14. Oh god more Marsupial graphs. Is there one that shows Labor winning Kooyong?
    There certainly isn’t one showing McCain winning Michigan.
    [Martin Hamilton Smith isnt THAT popular, ]
    Curiously he is more popular than his policies, e.g. build a football stadium instead of a new hospital, bid for the Commonwealth Games, but don’t build the tram overpass.

  15. 10 ruawake, it appears the Liberal National Party is confusing everybody including their own supporters.

    [Meanwhile, a senior strategist with Mr Springborg’s Liberal National Party has warned that merging the state coalition partners was likely to cost the Coalition the next federal election.

    Newly elected LNP Brisbane Zone chairman Phil Williams said in a letter to LNP president Bruce McIver that the federal implications of the merger had not been thought through.

    Voters would be confused if they were voting for the LNP, the Liberal Party or the Nationals at a federal poll, Mr Williams said.

    “In seats like Ryan, I believe people vote for the Liberal Party, not the LNP, and we will lose votes. In marginal seats like Longman, this will cost us the ability to win.”

    There was confusion about which party room in Canberra the federal LNP MPs should sit in, he said.

    Failure to address several issues “will in all likelihood cost the Coalition the next federal election”, he said.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24433849-5006786,00.html

  16. BB

    Costello did an hour long interview on “coastal conversations” ABC FM, yesterday. He just talks about his book. Expect “as I say in the book” to be heard many many times. 🙂

  17. [10 ruawake, it appears the Liberal National Party is confusing everybody including their own supporters.]
    Why don’t think just run one LNP candidate in each seat?

    Surely if people don’t see NATIONAL PARTY or LIBERAL PARTY on the ballot they will go to the next closes thing.
    [Costello did an hour long interview on “coastal conversations” ABC FM, yesterday. He just talks about his book. Expect “as I say in the book” to be heard many many times.]
    He’s on Insiders tonight, I’m expecting to hear the same.

  18. ShowsOn

    I expect there will be LNP and Liberal Party candidates at the next Qld election. This is what Phil Williams is saying.

  19. Ruawake:

    [Costello did an hour long interview on “coastal conversations” ABC FM, yesterday.]

    I stand corrected on that then.

  20. [I expect there will be LNP and Liberal Party candidates at the next Qld election. This is what Phil Williams is saying.]
    Oh dear… I thought the Queensland Liberal party had all been wrapped up into the LNP.

  21. Wayne Swan is on fire at the moment (going sensational).

    After the election I used to give it to some family members whenever we’d get together, who all vote liberal, by saying “that’s a real foreign minister” everytime Smith would appear on telly. Now I say “that’s a real treasurer” everytime Swan is on TV. They do not like that lol. :))

  22. ShowsOn

    The LNP is basically a takeover of the Libs by the Nats and Santo’s faction of the Libs. 3,500 of the Libs membership of 5,500 have not joined the LNP.

    The LNP tried to get the QEC to deregister the Liberal Party, but failed. They cited non-existant letters from Libs. to back their claims.

    Even if they get their way there will be “Liberal” independants in many SE Qld seats.

  23. [Even if they get their way there will be “Liberal” independants in many SE Qld seats.]
    If that’s the case, Rudd has just won the next election.

    If I was Turnbull I would be getting the LNP ratified as the new Queensland Liberal division ASAP.

    So do you mean at the next election Michael ‘Stacker’ Johnson will run as a Liberal, not as the LNP candidate?

  24. BB @ 13 –

    Tip also said:

    Mr Costello said he regularly called the banks in for discussions when he was treasurer.

    “They have already allowed the banks to increase their margin by half a per cent. The banks are now charging an additional half a per cent over and above the Reserve Bank rate.”

    As the last real Treasurer we had before the current one pointed out on Lateline yesterday, instead of the banks paying the normal 0.25-0.50% premium on borrowings, they are having to cough up 2.5% (the LIBOR rate hit 6.88% on Tuesday!), assuming they can actually find someone willing to lend money ATM, which makes the 50 basis points fairly reasonable.

    So wasn’t Costello watching, or didn’t he understand it?

    Or, as I posted yesterday, maybe the Libs want one of the banks to teeter so as to justify Turnbull’s repeated calls last week for the Government to bailout the banks.

  26. 20 “Oh dear… I thought the Queensland Liberal party had all been wrapped up into the LNP.”

    Shows on, the problem is that they were supposed to deregister the Liberal Party and National Party names by now but with the changeover to Turnbull the wheels have fallen off the process. Seems like they don’t have the numbers to get it past the Liberal Federal Executive and Liberal Federal Council.

    Even if they do eventually it will probably spark a court case and we are still left with the Liberal National Party when in Queensland and the Liberal and National Parties when in Canberra. Also under the Liberal National Party constitution the members when in Canberra can sit in the party room of the Liberal Party or the National Party depending on which way the wind is blowing on the day.

  27. [So wasn’t Costello watching, or didn’t he understand it?]
    Probably both.
    [COAG has agreed for the Feds to take over all areas of consumer credit (mortgage regulation etc) by mid next year, plus several other agreements]
    This makes sense. The Feds get blamed when rates go up and down, so they may as well be responsible for the regulation.

  28. [Shows on, the problem is that they were supposed to deregister the Liberal Party and National Party names by now but with the changeover to Turnbull the wheels have fallen off the process. Seems like they don’t have the numbers to get it past the Liberal Federal Executive and Liberal Federal Council.]
    How could they let this happen! With Labor it seems if the leader wants something to happen it gets done after a bit of arm twisting (especially if they are the P.M.).

  29. ruawake@22

    You have got to be joking!! If the LNP and Libs run candidates agin each other it would have to cost them. ALP would run riot with “poisonous disunited rabble” type adverts and have a ball.

    Wonder if there would be enough animosity betwixt LNP and remaining Libs for some of them to do a D’Orazio (like in the W.A. election) with preferences?

  30. 28 Shows on, nothing gets solved by the conservatives in Queensland until it has been through the Supreme Court. Only then can a decision be said to have been made.

  32. Poor Possium! Adam will never let him live Kooyong down!! maybe Possium should play in Adam roof while Adam is trying to sleep 😉

  34. GG

    Judith is right about Rudd but wrong about Rann. Most people can’t stand him and if MHS wasn’t such a hopeless blowhard (and he’s the best Liberal, you NEVER see the rest of his team they are so inept) Rann would have been forced to resign by now and hand over to Foley.

    On the issues, Rudd is getting a protest vote because of the MDB. Having Penny Wong perceived as pulling the rug out from her fellow Crow Eaters has gone down very poorly. When summer hits, the anger will get worse. We are an old State as Adam said and the pension grandstanding by the Libs has helped them.

    On the tactics, Rann is totally entrenched as a good news only, do-nothing, Media populist now. The SA Libs (Pyne, Minchin, Downer) are trying to tar Rudd with the same brush in SA (Are the Libs using this tactic in other states?)

  36. I agree with Diogenes (34) it is a perception of all talk and no action on the Murray that is hitting federal Labor in SA.

    It is possible that this gap between rhetoric and reality is much more of a problem for Labor’s climate change policy than whether motorists will be paying a few extra cents on the litre.

  37. Diogenes, MHS comes up with nothing but populist ideas ah la Nelson, most see them as pie in the sky and dont take him seriously, i listen to talkback all night {nightmares keep me from sleeping} and most call ins are just commenting he’d send the state broke in no time flat, the only anti Rudd program is Bob Francis who is a fanatical red neck lib –he even lauded Pauline Hanson when she was in parliament, i avoid that program like the plague,in the past i’ve knocked back commenting on that program when B.V.E was in the news, by the way i listen but never ring, im interested in everyone’s ideas.

  38. “They have already allowed the banks to increase their margin by half a per cent. The banks are now charging an additional half a per cent over and above the Reserve Bank rate.”

    Costello thinks banks lend at cost?

  39. the Advertiser is doing the lib’s work for them, as they did with the charactor assasination of Cornes, westerners complain their paper is fanatical lib, i think the Advertiser would give them a run for their money, much as i love the cryptic crossword i stopped buying it a while back, Chris Kenny and Downer are their regular columnists–nuff said.

  40. I not normally a big fan bt, Terry McRann in the Melbourne Sun probably got it right this morning when he said,

    “This is not a good time to undermine the profitability of our banks. Even accepting, and indeed precisely because, they have made some poor decisions themselves.

    In an ultimate sense, if you have to choose between banks gouging borrowers and being ‘nice’, running the risk of being seen as less safe for depositors, go for the gouging. ”

    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24433272-36281,00.html

  41. [Poor Possium! Adam will never let him live Kooyong down!! maybe Possium should play in Adam roof while Adam is trying to sleep ;)]
    Or just mention that Adam said McCain would win Michigan.

  43. The 18-34s are less likely to have kids, a mortgage amd other family related expenses. With interest rtes on the rise, petrol up 50 cents a litre and inflation at the supermarket, these youngsters may have dodged the financial bullet at this stage.

  44. from article Grog posted (42)

    Labor Support Eases

    SUPPORT for the Labor Federal Government has eroded since it came to power in November last year…When the Rudd government was elected its support was 52.7 per cent on a two-party-preferred measure…New newspoll figures published by News Ltd today put support for Labor at 56 per cent for July to September…

    Huh, am I missing something?

  47. Judith Barnes @ 39 Keep up your earnest work on this blog. Perhaps you are a member of the coffee-table cryptic crossword clique.

  48. Yes Nate, the headline and comment about support easing is incorrect. As another PBer said:

    In fact Labor is still ahead of where it was at the election in every state, as measured by 2PV, though only just in WA and SA.

  49. Yesterday I forecast that there could be a reduced surplus for the 2008/2009 year.

    But I never imagined it could cop a hit such as this prediction. I hope it’s wrong.

    [There are fears the federal surplus could take a $10 billion hit as a result of reduced revenues and the global financial crisis.

    But Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner said Infrastructure Australia and the Building Australia Fund were safe. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24436360-5013871,00.html

  50. Thinking of the demographics of who votes for whom – does anyone know of a site that offerred a 20point quizz that indicates the party(ies) you most connect with? I remember doing the test about a decade ago and came up as a Democrat of the Chip variety. And it was pretty spot on for me at the time but I jumped ship about 2 elections back. “I think I’m a fundamentalist but I can’t be sure about that” Thanks for any help!

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