Newspoll geographic and demographic analysis

Newspoll today brings us its quarterly geographic and demographic analysis, which our good friend Possum has converted into many pretty graphs. The most intruging aspect is that Labor has apparently gone off the boil in Western Australia and South Australia. Labor’s problems in the former territory hardly need reiterating in light of the events of last month, but the defeat of the Carpenter government has probably lanced the boil in terms of federal implications. Recent state polling from Newspoll and The Advertiser, along with anecdotal evidence regarding the Murray-Darling issue, underscores the point that South Australia could loom as a problem for Rudd. Luckily for Labor, they emerged from the 2007 election with healthy buffers in all the state’s traditionally marginal seats: 4.4 per cent in Kingston, 5.1 per cent in Hindmarsh, 6.7 per cent in Wakefield and 7.7 per cent in Makin.

Two other potentially significant indicators: Labor has maintained its honeymoon bounce in the 18-34 age category while losing it in the older groups; Kevin Rudd’s approval rating in South Australia has fallen 15 per cent since the first quarter.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

116 comments on “Newspoll geographic and demographic analysis”

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  1. [Thinking of the demographics of who votes for whom – does anyone know of a site that offerred a 20point quizz that indicates the party(ies) you most connect with?]
    Here’s one that was popular on this blog about a year ago:
    http://www.politicalcompass.org/

    Click “Take the test” near the top left.

  4. scorpio @ 49 –

    Yesterday I forecast that there could be a reduced surplus for the 2008/2009 year.

    But I never imagined it could cop a hit such as this prediction. I hope it’s wrong.

    There are fears the federal surplus could take a $10 billion hit as a result of reduced revenues and the global financial crisis.

    No need to panic, scorpio. As the born-to-ruler-in-chief was telling us just last week in another context, $10 billion isn’t really that much. A mere bagatelle. Loose change. Of course he’d know. All Libs are economic geniarses (sic). It’s a fundamental law of the Universe. Plus he was a banker and their financial skills are legendary. You only need to read the papers!

    Sigh ;(

  8. David Charles, earnest work???? i’m the blog lurker, i just drop in the occasional remark to let everyone know i’m still around, as for the coffee table cryptic crossword set–well i’ve gone cold turkey since i’ve given up buying the Advertiser, now why does this decrepit old dear get the idea your taking the micky out of her?

  9. Thanks Showson – I am on the axis above you – I want a bit more authority and some government regulation – my sympathies seem to be covered more by maverick independents than a major party. About 10% of the questions I was forced to answer in a way that did not cover my values – but I guess these people know how to make the best of a persons reluctance to be pigeonholed into a black and white position.

  10. Gusface, it’s a bit more interesting than last week, Cossie’s looking rather bored –that is until he came to life to plug his book.

  11. judith
    qanda is actually getting better each time

    I often say to the naysayers that could they imagine howard allowing such a program

    aint democracy grand!

    ps david marr is one cool bloke-he should have his own show

  13. [Don’t change the subject.]
    LOL! Why can’t I respond to two subjects in a single post?

    Anyway, as William points out, this is more relevant on the U.S. thread; you know the one you’re allergic to.
    [The only good thing about tom switzer is the 10 or so kg of carbon he sequestrates]
    LOL!
    [Thanks Showson – I am on the axis above you -]
    What were your actual numbers? Mine are: economic = -3.88 social = -4.15

  15. dyspnoeia
    “The only good thing about tom switzer is the 10 or so kg of carbon he sequestrates”

    dont say that, it is always good to get an insight into what the enemy is thinking 🙂

  16. Adam ,

    I support th accuracy of your last comment regarding ShowsOn having had same occur many numerous times , further statisticaly on published Polls your then judgement is supported & furthermore not long prior thereto that electorate was going to bee actualy lost by 4%

    On SA & age groups I think Murray River problems ar easier to tarnish Federal Labor with by one liners like “NSW irriigators ar hording/cheating” on water from SA , rather than truth that there is a drought and there is insufficent water with stored water curently at 4800 being only 20% of stored capacity

  17. SHowson – I got -2.88 on the economics scale and +0.1 on the authoritie – I sit below the pope who is about -2 on the economy and about +2 on Authority.

  19. [I support th accuracy of your last comment regarding ShowsOn having had same occur many numerous times]
    Well done for standing up for your idol! Are you his official attack dog now? It seems you either don’t understand my replies, or more likely you go out of your way to misinterpret everything I write. So your judgment of my posts is completely meaningless.
    [SHowson – I got -2.88 on the economics scale and +0.1 on the authoritie – I sit below the pope who is about -2 on the economy and about +2 on Authority.]
    Cool, very interesting.

  20. Tom Switzer doesn’t even know what SIEV X was!

    Where do they find these terrible hacks that don’t even read about recent political history?

  24. Hi Vera

    Turnbull an ex Mercant Banker pretends to on th side of aussie battlers criticising Banks interst rates

    Seems he’s been too busy reading Costello’s book to notice how th Global financial mess has forced up cost of funds

    By th way ar you a crosswords expert

  25. thanks Vera, i’ve put it in favourites, ahhh pure bliss, my computor, my books, a cryptic crossword and reading a good blog along with my morning coffees, i cant think of a better way to start the day lol.

  26. G’day William and everyone else!
    Surprisingly, Smirky was entertaining on Q&A tonight, Smirky vs Roxon was worth the price of admission alone!
    Why is the ABC ending the series so early? Have they run out of money?

  27. Ronster

    The Tiser is not only anti-Labor bit it is even more anti-Vic, anti-NSW and anti-Qld. It’s almost xenophobic. They know they’re on a winner berating the Govt on Water. It gets them their equivalent of votes, ie papers sold. Any positive step by Rudd is greeted either with derision, claims of tokenism or as a victory for the Tiser. It’s going to be a bumpy road.

  28. ar CrowEaters into wishful thinking like possums that its been raining , I mean there is an official audit Report of stored water demonstrating insufficency (& 2 more verification audits to come) , its insufficent notwithstanding some irregularities usage of a miniscule minority in North , or don’t they believe in droughts

  29. Diogenes, i’m glad i’m not the only one to think it’s a lib blue rag, when i look back i wonder why it took me so long to jettison it, in the end it took only 10 mins to read it from cover to cover and the only interesting part was Ruchi’s baiting my beloved crows or Graham Cornes putting his foot in it.

  30. no worries Judith

    Hey Smirk’s getting a lot of free advertising for his book on the ABC isn’t he? a couple of hour long radio slots and TV tonight.

  31. [Diogenes, i’m glad i’m not the only one to think it’s a lib blue rag, when i look back i wonder why it took me so long to jettison it, in the end it took only 10 mins to read it from cover to cover and the only interesting part was Ruchi’s baiting my beloved crows or Graham Cornes putting his foot in it.]
    I reckon it was reasonably balanced up until Martin Hamilton-Smith became opposition leader. He is from the old guard / establishment faction of the Libs which has always been closely tied to the ’tiser. (You know, Alexander Downer types).

    But maybe it just seemed that way because Rann didn’t have any competition?

  33. Talking about Tom Switzer, I’m sure a number of people will love this.

    [WHEN Tom Switzer, former opinion page editor of The Australian, appears on ABC television’s final Q&A program for the year tonight, he will be out to impress. Switzer, who is sharing the small screen with Peter Costello, Nicola Roxon, David Marr, Cheryl Kernot and host Tony Jones, left The Oz to take up a position in Brendan Nelson’s office when Nelson was leader of the Liberal Party. He brushed aside the concerns voiced by some of his newspaper colleagues, assuring them that if Nelson were replaced by Malcolm Turnbull, he would still have a job. After all, he got on well with Turnbull. And Switzer’s wife, Sarah Stock, was once Turnbull’s press secretary. But with Nelson on the backbench and Turnbull in the box seat, Switzer has found himself without a job in the Opposition Leader’s office. Scuttlebutt in the corridors of Parliament House suggests he may be joining one of the high-profile, privately funded think tanks such as the Lowy or Sydney institutes.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24431869-25090,00.html

  35. [Scuttlebutt in the corridors of Parliament House suggests he may be joining one of the high-profile, privately funded think tanks such as the Lowy or Sydney institutes.]
    So that he can learn what the SIEV X was?

  37. Showson, it wasnt too bad until Meville Mansel took over as editor, thats when my journo pal decamped for greener pastures and he aint regretted it.

  38. hello Ron
    thank god your’e Ok, hadn’t seen you for a while, got worried. sent coast guard to the Island incase you were in need of rescuing!

  39. [Showson, it wasnt too bad until Meville Mansel took over as editor, thats when my journo pal decamped for greener pastures and he aint regretted it.]
    When did he take over (roughly)?

  42. Thanks Vera

    Well they’ve been trying to kidnap me out of fear my truthful snake oil salemen posts may get into international blogs & destroy that mirage , but our great Labor Leader Kevin07 to th rescue

    Labor polls still great after 11 months aren’t they

  44. I suspect Labor’s polls would be even higher if the media hadn’t started to run their various attacking memes. In effect much of the media has been the proxy Opposition party. Makes you wonder why they are so keen to protect a bunch of no hopers except they identify with them.

  46. your right Vera, it was an excellent laugh, i’m going to go to bed dreaming of Cossie’s books, homeless and in the streets begging for a handout or a nice warm bookshelf lol.

  47. me too Vera , and th religous type blind support so contrasts with normative Labor supporters here supporting Kevin07 but then Greens supporters hav different non practical politcal views on economics , FA , health & like

  48. agree ron. Greens are able to put forward all the feel good stuff (must admit I agree with a lot of it) without any costings as they know they’ll never be in a position to be held accountable. Then they slag off Kev for being “gutless” on climate change, slag him off again for not increasing pensions (i think they wanted about $60 increase for all pensioners) Could it be they think money grows on trees?

  49. Vera

    “Could it be they think money grows on trees?”

    Vera , there seems to br alot of things in those trees , greens , possums , money and Brendan Nelsons lost credibility

    Tou ar right Vera , slagging off at Rudd with economicaly lunatic promises is irresponsible and on CC they’d hav us with th Greenest of Green Australia but they’d be no job so we’d all starve !

    Kevin07 has to find a balance between CC and a future plus jobs for our kids and believe he will do so

  50. I think Kev will talk to and work with anyone and everyone, no grandstanding unlike howard, to get things done. He and the WA leader had their first chat and Kev gave him credit for new ideas on closing the gap and they are having a special COAG metting early next year dedicated entirely to the topic
    If you’re still about g’night ron, and watch your back if you venture to the dark island

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