Galaxy: 52-48 to state Labor in Queensland

The Courier-Mail has today come good with results on state voting intention from the 800-sample Galaxy survey that brought us yesterday’s Queensland federal poll. It finds Anna Bligh’s state government is slightly more popular than its federal counterpart, with Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred and 43 per cent to 42 per cent on the primary vote. All the results are within the margin-of-error range of previous Galaxy surveys in June and July. However, Lawrence Springborg has made ground on Anna Bligh in the preferred leader stakes, the gap narrowing to 50-35 from 53-30 in July. The poll finds the Liberal National Party is considered better able to manage health and public hospitals (presumably a hangover from the Jayant Patel scandal), while Labor leads on water supply, education, law and order, roads and public transport.

NOTE: Don’t be confused by this post’s similar appearance to the one below – this thread is for Queensland state politics.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

27 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to state Labor in Queensland”

  1. Reading the report on it in the Curious Snail, there is the usual Springborg backslapping and baiting about an early election which although the Curious Snail would love it is not going to happen. In a nut shell, the story is that the Liberal National Party is so popular that they would lose badly if an election were held at present.

    [However, on the key policy areas – including education, water and roads – Labor still holds a commanding lead over the LNP as the better managers, except on the burning issue of health and hospitals.]

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24422534-3102,00.html

  2. All governments have their time where people just stop listening and opt for change. I think the next election in Queensland will probably be close but I’d certainly say the ‘LNP’ are in with a chance.

  3. Anyone else listen to the Newpaper headlines preview segment on the Tony Delroy ABC Radio late night program?
    The bloke from the Courier Mail last night was predictably spinning this as a disasterous result for Anna Bligh!

  4. Compared with the NT Liberal and WA Liberal, the Qld Libs are doing much better at this stage.

    Bligh would be stupid to go to an early election

  5. Swings for Change of Government in Queensland despite the enthusiasm of the Courier Mail.

    For Labor to lose majority old boundaries 15 seats needed, 7.2% swing needed, new boundaries 19 seats, 7.6% swing needed.

    For Liberal/National majority old boundaries 20 seats needed 8.3% swing needed, New Boundaries 23 seats, and 8.5% swing needed.

  10. Labor could stuff this up, but they will have learn from WA and Bligh is smarter than Carps. The LNP will need to win the campaign big.

  11. Thanks Steve for those links.

    I was just wondering last night if perhaps it had been a bit precipitous of the ECQ to register the LNP as a political party in QLD, when according to their constitution, they are a state division of the Liberal Party, but have not been approved as such yet. One would think that that must mean that they currently have no official status (within the Liberal Party) other than potential state branch.

    Another thing I was wondering about, is that as the Liberal Party and National Party have agreed to NOT field candidates at the next Legislative Assembly election, and such an intent is a requirement of political party registration, why have the Liberal Party and the National Party not been deregistered by the ECQ for failing to continue to meet the statutory registration requrements?

  12. With the Liberal party and National party still registered with the ECQ how can the name Liberal National Party be accepted? Given that the ECQ states that the following is a reason for not accepting a party.

    “is a party name (that is, the name of a party which is a registered political party); or
    so nearly resembles a party name that it is likely to be confused with or mistaken for that party name”.

    So the LNP should not have been registered until the Liberal and National parties were deregistered.

  13. gkeed and ruawake, good questions which I’m sure will be answered in the Courier Mail tomorrow or by Springborg next week when the Queensland Parliament meets again.

  17. A South East Queensland Daylight Saving Party wants to get itself registered. Funny that the number 67 once again makes it’s appearance. Pity the journalist didn’t ask which 67 seats they are talking about.

    [Spokesman Jason Furze said the “single-issue” party planned to run in 67 seats at the next State election, stretching from Hervey Bay in the north and including Toowoomba and Warwick in the west – the area it believes should have summer time.]

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24431172-3102,00.html

  18. Daylight Saving which begins in the Southern States this Sunday will never again see the light of day in the Sunshine State. Queenslanders are different we are sometimes referred to as the deep north compared to the deep south of the Southern States in the USA. The new look LNP is opposed to Daylight Saving and The Labor Government wants nothing to do with it also. Regional New South Welchman and Regional Victorians detest Daylight Saving and are sick of having to be swamped by the Sydney Melbourne viewpoint perhaps all they need is to help create a stronger National Party in both states instead of voting for rural independents and Liberals in some of these Regional areas.

  20. Given that regional daylight saving is/was Qld Liberal Party policy, another reason for a seperate Liberal Party in Qld.

    The LNP the party that just keeps giving. 🙂

  21. Ruawake the Queensland Liberal party is history get with the program Queensland unlike the other states now only has two main parties Labor and the new look LNP.

    It will take time to see the new political realignment take reality particular how it plays in canberra but we can wail 20 years.

  23. Paul.
    Not sure if you meant this “It will take time to see the new political realignment take reality particular how it plays in canberra but we can wail 20 years.”
    I mean wailing is helpful (and god arent the fed libs doing alot of that) but i personally would suggest that a complete policy revamp more in tune with voters needs would be more appropriate.

    cheers

  25. It’s a strange thing about Queensland politics that the Nationals do best in the polls when they are hunked down in the bunker out of sight and sound from the general public.

    Once the rat catchers send in the fox terriers to flush them out or an election is called and they have to come out to be exposed as having no policies worth considering by the Queensland voters then their ratings nosedive.

    Springborg has lost two elections so far by this no policy and keep hidden strategy but can he make it three in a row? He is a case study in history repeating.

  26. For the want of a better place to mention it, the rather strange occurance of a state ALP MLA resigning from the ALP to join the Greens occured a few days ago. MLA Ronan Lee, member for Indooroopilly therefore becomes (as far as I know) the first Green MLA in QLD.

    I doubt that he will retain the seat if he recontests it at the next election, which I presume he will.

    “Blow to Anna Bligh as Ronan Lee quits Labor for Greens”…

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24449291-952,00.html

  27. It makes Labor’s chances at retaining the seat seem a little tougher at least on paper (given optional preferential etc.).

    It’s also interesting that Mr Lee is now a Greens member but is still retaining his opposition to abortion. It makes you wonder if the Greens will just have anybody.

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