A pre-Turnbull Roy Morgan face-to-face poll of 1703 respondents, conducted over the previous two weekends, has Labor’s two-party lead down from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5. Labor has taken a five point hit on the primary vote since the late August survey, from 50 per cent to 45 per cent, although the Coalition is only up one point to 38 per cent. Most of the balance is accounted for by a spike in the “independent/others” vote from 4.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, which is 1 per cent higher than at any stage during the current term. The Greens are up from 6.5 per cent to 8 per cent.
UPDATE (20/9/08): Comments brings news of a Galaxy poll to appear in tomorrow’s News Limited papers showing Kevin Rudd leading Malcolm Turnbull as preferred leader 58 per cent to 28 per cent; 63 per cent say Turnbull will make no difference to their vote; 48 per cent describe Turnbull as arrogant compared with 23 per cent for Kevin Rudd. ABC TV reports the sample was about 400. Hat-tip: Bushfire Bill and Andos.
90 – I agree scorpio. The Liberal Party handbook is being used extensively as a reference here tonight.
the best line in Shana’s article:
“Just because the Liberals think something doesn’t mean it is going to happen, and arguably it’s evidence of the opposite”
I give him credit for that.
Pity he followed it up with a page of “my dog is an animal; my cat is an animal; therefore my dog is a cat” logic and argument.
101 Gary, the Liberal polling must be showing the first week has not been kind to Talcum. He can’t even sort out a bunch of Lawyers to put on his Shadow Ministry by today like he said he would. How did he go with reversing the National takeover of the Queensland Liberals, has anybody heard?
Okay time to show my hand.
I did not vote for Howard(never have)
I did not vote for Rudd either.(Though, I don’t think he is such a bad guy… really.)
You guys are just too precious! You believe that because I criticize Rudd I must be a Liberal supporter!
Rudd is just another megalomaniac like his predecessor.
These days there is not much difference between the two parties.
More’s the pity.
Here is my take on the “Rudd will be a oncer” line from the Liberals.
I believe it was invented to assuage the hurt and indignation that the born-to-rule feel. It’s meant to soothe them by more or less saying, “Be patient, your pain will be over soon.”
I’m sure if they could do a Kerr and dismiss Rudd they would do so in a flash. Piers, in his furious one-hand blog, serially fantasises about something called the “Heiner Affair” finishing Rudd off and returning the Liberals to their rightful place in government.
They believe the electorate made a grievous error last November. Rudd hoodwinked them. Their world will right itself any day now as they triumphantly reclaim of what is rightfully theirs.
Fantasy, all of it. Delusion, a coping mechanism to mollify their intense outrage.
Dennis is dog-whistling aggrieved Liberals.
103 steve – don’t you realise, the front bench issue is, according to Shana, a show of discipline.
C’mon Turnbull put Julie Bishop at shadow treasurer. Please, please, please.
[Rudd is just another megalomaniac like his predecessor.]
You’ve got to be kidding, right?
[These days there is not much difference between the two parties.]
Ditto!
104 [You guys are just too precious! You believe that because I criticize Rudd I must be a Liberal supporter!]
No, but when you are sprouting the exact lines uttered by Turnbull and Bishop earlier in the day, it’s unlikely we are going to think you are a Greens or… what a lapsed Democrat?
The front bench hasn’t been named yet so I think Sham-I-am is having a lend of himself.
The other flop for Talcum this week was trying to draft Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce who told him he was not interested in a Shadow Cabinet position.
104 – kj, it sounds as though you were just having us on. Personally. I have much more respect for someone parroting the Lib handbook with conviction than someone playing bunny fuggers.
It’s true that there hasn’t been a one-term government since Scullin. But we should recall that:
*Scullin came to power after an election in which the previous PM (who had tried to bring in harsh new IR laws) had lost his seat.
*Scullin had a large majority in the Reps, but faced a hostile Senate.
*Shortly after his election, there was a crash on Watt St.
Sound familar? This is what happened next.
*He didn’t have the nerve to call a DD to overcome Senate obstruction.
*His Treasurer (a Queenslander) had to resign over a trumped-up scandal.
*The Senate rejected most of his budgets and any attempts to reflate the economy.
*His government broke up into three factions, and at the next election Labor suffered the worst defeat in its history (14 seats out of 75).
Maxine was right on the money during Q&A the other night… the Opposition don’t seem to have realised what actually happened in November last year — and more importantly, why. Until they take a long hard look at themselves, and go through all five stages of grief, they’re not going to be particularly effective.
Turnbull, who had less skin in the game than most of the current leadership (Abbott, Hockey, Bishop, et al.) might just be the guy to sort them out. Might. 🙂
Watt St.? Did a building collapse in Box Hill?
112 – ok I doubt Rudd will call a DD; but the other 3 should be fine (Xen and Fielding will take the deals offered, and so will the greens)
Gary, not having you on mate.
Just showing you up for the cyclopses that you are.
Adam – interesting but you could have long odds of the bottom events taking place again.
kj – I call it having us on. Consequently my responses will be directed at people who are serious about their views. GP leaves you for dead for sincerity mate.
116 kj you are only showing what a cyclopse you are. Say what you mean and mean what you say if you want to be trusted around here. Nobody here cares who you voted for or when.
116, yep well done kj you came along, said Liberal Party line by rote and we criticised them. Guess you showed us.
But, I’ll take you at your word; you’re not ALP or Lib, but you’re on a politics blog, so obviously you have some interest in the matter, and have some policies in mind that you think Rudd should have implemented by now?
Give us a few – you never know we might agree.
[The front bench hasn’t been named yet so I think Sham-I-am is having a lend of himself.]
One commenter pikhed him up on that very well. I bet it hurt.
[Refusal to speculate about front bench positions? What do you call yesterday’s front page? Oh mate. You can do better.]
This annoying man in the blue tie keeps trying to sell me something but I can’t hear him.
Scorpio
without trying to be inflammatory, kj has a valid point re the 10 trips
as a perception issue it certainly dogged whitlam
joe public dont care for reasons
The bad week for bankers continues.
THREE executives dubbed “Germany’s stupidest bankers” in the press have been suspended from state bank KfW over erroneous transfers of more than €500 million ($892.38 million) to the bankrupt Lehman Brothers, the KfW said.
Two board members and a top risk control manager were suspended “pending final clarification of the incident” following a meeting of KfW’s supervisory board meeting attended by top ministers including Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck, the bank said in a statement.
A law firm has also been hired to see if further “consequences” are appropriate. The bank is already under fire over its rescue of IKB – Germany’s biggest casualty of the subprime crisis – will subject its business procedures, especially those of risk management, to an “in-depth audit.”
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24372294-3122,00.html
I would think most people wouldn’t know if Rudd was in the country or not and wouldn’t care.
123 – yes but Whitlam went on a tour of greece (from memory) – and plus back then direct overseas calling wasn’t even standard. You could be in London or next door to me and I wouldn’t know the difference. If I need to talk face to face there’s skype etc.
Yes the perception is not great; but the Libs get into Rudd about being too worried about percepetion; so he should what not go because to go looks bad?
Grog
the MSM create the perception-adding more grist to the mill only aids in building the perception of an absent PM
I think the Liberals are comparing Rudd’s trips to the trips taken this year by their extraordinarily lazy Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs. Googles everywhere flies nowhere.
Agree GB @ 125, o/s travel is a non-issue. So don’t know why you are going on about it so much.
More to the point is that Rudd and Gillard have sold out workers (and voters) by keeping much of Workchoices. Very disappointing that Gillard’s announcement received warm approval from employer groups as being “balanced”. Says it all really.
kj – I call it having us on. Consequently my responses will be directed at people who are serious about their views. GP leaves you for dead for sincerity mate
Suits me fine. I am just not one eyed is all.
I think that Howard was quite radical,. Rudd on the other hand is truly what he says he is. A conservative.
He believes in God. He does not believe that humans evolved without a higher power. He spoke out against Bill Henson’s sexually provocative photography.
He supports McClelland in the Benbrika saga.. etc.. I like him.
However… Whether he and Swan(an academic with no qualifications in economics or business, nor experience in the real world) can run the country is another thing.
gusface,
See Gary’s post @ 125. Hammer, nail, head——whack!
I spend a lot of time around lifetime LNP supporters. That issue has never been raised.
Dislike for Julia Gillard was today’s main subject.
well Turbull spent a week in the sun in Italy doing nothing; though I guess when you’re only shadow treasurer it doesn’t matter what you do.
One thing for sure if Rudd misses four days of Parliament then it will be so he can make some big announcement while in NYC.
The LNP are quite like a winning tennis player that gets beat by a new more skilled player but cannot accept they lack the ability to beat this new player. Instead they blame a bad day, beginners luck, the new guy played well above themselves, the equipment was faulty, bad umpires etc.
I don’t doubt some commentators and some inside the party understand that they are out gunned in the talent department but it would seem the vast majority are in the bad looser category as above. They are still sulking and spiteful like the bad looser.
It is fine that the wont accept that they are out skilled as it means they will do nothing to improve themselves. They intend to rely on a hopefully charismatic Turnbull.
They still wont admit or are simply ignorant of the fact that Rudd and Labor worked their butts off to get up to speed and that was coupled with talented people.
Bolt made a comment on the Insiders before the election about the depth of talent inside Labor that was a real problem for the LNP if Labor won.
They should be encouraged in their belief that they were just unlucky.
Scorpio
I work with em 🙁
seriously this issue is a sleeper that will be used to build the “out of touch,quasi intellectual meme”
TP and the fact Rudd feels no concerns leaving Julia in charge for 4 days of QT underlines your point.
I remember back at the start of the year how the Libs were rubbing their hands together for when Rudd went overseas, because they thought they’d be able to trip the Govt up and show them as unable to function without Rudd telling everyone what to do.
No one tries to make that point anymore.
[the MSM create the perception]
Doesn’t seem to be working very well. Any of them. The Costello leadership ambitions was a classic failure.
The perceptions that the Rudd Government is all spin & no substance is not working. That the Govt has no policies and is not achieving anything of substance is not working.
Check the Polls. Check today’s Morgan. Sorry, next!
Oh Dear,’People Skills’ Abbott has taken up lobbying for a Shadow Cabinet position on News Ltd blogs. The Shadow Ministry he has at present just isn’t good enough so he got a Dorithy Dixer up in the local rag.
[FEDERAL Opposition frontbencher Tony Abbott says he’s itching to get closer to the main action under the reshuffle of the shadow ministry by new Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull.
Mr Abbott has lamented in an online forum that his current portfolio of families, community services and indigenous affairs is not at the centre of political combat.
“It’s an important portfolio which needs a senior person. It’s not, though, the centre of political combat and I’ve sometimes rather wished I was closer to the main action,” he wrote on a Daily Telegraph blog.
“The composition of the shadow ministry is entirely in the leader’s hands and he will pick the team that he thinks will best assist the Liberals to win the next election.”
Mr Turnbull is expected to name his frontbench next week.
Mr Abbott was responding to a comment from “Liberal voter of Creswick”, who wanted him to take on Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard in one of her portfolios.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24370690-26103,00.html
135 I do see you point, but I think it’s a very deep sleep – so long as there aren’t any/many scenes of Rudd touring the acropolis (like Whitlam) or sitting down in the members stand of Lords (like Howard) any harm will be slight.
You need lots of vision to put in adverts come election time. Otherwise you’re just left with Bolt and Blair saying “when is he going to make a visit to Australia?” har har ha.
Has there actually been any criticism of his trips this year? Aside form Nelson suggesting he needed to visit another country (Japan), No one has actually said “well that was a waste”.
Maybe they have, but I don’t recall any – in fact generally the press bemoans how these overseas trips are long days and hard work to keep up with Rudd’s hectic pace.
Sorry
your deep intellects and obvious insights leave a mere mortal like myself humbled
a certain sense of balance would help in your analysis though 🙂
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24370896-662,00.html
remember the MSM create the perceptions
[seriously this issue is a sleeper that will be used to build the “out of touch,quasi intellectual meme”]
gusface, it’s only an issue at Liberal Headquarters and in the minds of those who wish it to be an issue. Sorry but its got less legs than an old carpet snake.
Can’t your “brainstorming” sessions work on some positive issues of substance and which could improve life for the average Tom & Jill in the street.
Your lot are stuck in a time warp of grief & negativity. It’s time to move on. The rest of the country has and it’s time the Liberal/Conservatives did too. Howard taking his party & supporters back to the 50’s has not been a very positive move.
The dogs have stopped barking & the caravan has moved on. Time to get moving & catch up.
I recall Gillard as acting PM in QT quite enjoying herself staring down those opposite.
Has there actually been any criticism of his trips this year? Aside form Nelson suggesting he needed to visit another country (Japan), No one has actually said “well that was a waste”.
No one has actually said it made a difference either!
You guys are too much.
How about a bit of perspective, eh?
Don’t you think it is hypocritical that the labor mob criticize Turnbull for being rich(120 million) when their own leader is rolling in dosh thanks to(upwards of 60 million) his wife.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking..
vison of Rudd addressing the UN General Assembly will go down well I’d suggest.
Scorpio
you sad cyclops
just ask whose side i run with 🙂
anyway when you can dispassionately look at the perception issue we will be able to debate
ps your 141 has been saved and sent to my local (alp) member
maybe he wont invite me to dinn dinns anymore
Give up the grog, Grog!
More symbolism!
yes it is hypocrtical kj; but then when Turnbull starts his first press conf saying how he came from ‘umble beginnings, he can hardly cry foul when people examine just how humble his life has been (and is).
ditto all the stories Rudd had to go through about his family being evicted – the sleeping in the family car (I recall Tim Blair going on and on about a combi van not really being a car etc etc).
I have never criticised either for being rich – I merely make fun of Turnbull’s “please don’t think I’m a silvertail” line – somewhat like Bill Leak does:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/cartoons/
[remember the MSM create the perceptions]
gusface, if the Liberal Party intend to lie back in their hammocks and rely on the MSM to “create perceptions” which they are relying on to steer them back into office, then they are going to be wandering in the wilderness for 40 years like the ancient tribe of Israel.
All this strategy will achieve is a lazy, incompetent Opposition and a Government, un-threatened or challenged, which will be able to continually sleepwalk back into Government election after election. It’s not good for the country or its people.
still waiting for that list of policies you want implemented kj. C’mon you non-Liberal voter, impress us.
The media and LNP did their best to sully the reputation of Rudd as soon as he became Opposition leader. The idea is to get in first to help influence the public’s perception. In Rudd’s case he had some years on tv so it was too late.
Labor strategists are ineed trying to have the impression created that Turnbull is out of touch with normal Austrlians and more represetitive of the priviliged. It won’t work however unless there is something about Turnbull that gells with this impression. And there is. Turnbull is aware of this public impression and is why he wanted to address it when accepting leadership of the LNP. But it was quite lame and he would have been better remaining silent.
It is politics – Rudd suffered this startegy in spades at the hands of a hostile Howard loving press.