Morgan: 55.5-44.5

A pre-Turnbull Roy Morgan face-to-face poll of 1703 respondents, conducted over the previous two weekends, has Labor’s two-party lead down from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5. Labor has taken a five point hit on the primary vote since the late August survey, from 50 per cent to 45 per cent, although the Coalition is only up one point to 38 per cent. Most of the balance is accounted for by a spike in the “independent/others” vote from 4.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, which is 1 per cent higher than at any stage during the current term. The Greens are up from 6.5 per cent to 8 per cent.

UPDATE (20/9/08): Comments brings news of a Galaxy poll to appear in tomorrow’s News Limited papers showing Kevin Rudd leading Malcolm Turnbull as preferred leader 58 per cent to 28 per cent; 63 per cent say Turnbull will make no difference to their vote; 48 per cent describe Turnbull as arrogant compared with 23 per cent for Kevin Rudd. ABC TV reports the sample was about 400. Hat-tip: Bushfire Bill and Andos.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

339 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5”

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  1. LDA @ 44

    This is a true story, there used to be one Govt. Dept. that was Apple Mac based. The workers liked their new spiffy Power Macs, but the powers that be decided that support costs were too high and they should conform to Windows 98.

    So they got rid of the happy Macs and put in Dell boxes. Then they thought oh dear we need to train the staff on this alien system. Someone I know and his girlfriend (as a joke) replied to the tender. They put their per hour cost at $174 an hour, BHP IT were the only other tenderer at $250 an hour.

    So despite only having experience in an obscure Mac Database system and an arty farty graphic design girly with a great figure – we (ooops). Got the job training the Dept. in the use of Dell boxes we had never seen before at nearly seven grand a week. 🙂

  2. good post enjaybee

    There really out to be a link somewhere which has the price of oil in $A – not doubt there is, but in my Friday evening state I can’t be bothered googling for it!

    The news should show it every night and then have the avge price of petrol

  3. [I too have been wondering why the price of petrol hasn’t dropped more.]

    As I mentioned at the top of this thread, Australian petrol prices are dependent on the Singapore benchmark (where 95% of our petrol comes from I believe), not on the world oil price. You are using the wrong yardstick for your calculations.

  4. No Adam, I don’t know for sure about that, but just that 4 seats are going on the 18th of October and those would be the ones mentioned in the earlier post. Don’t know what Sartor’s seat is but unless it is one of those 4 (Ryde, Lakemba, can’t remember the other two) he hasn’t stepped down.

  5. I think Costello is finally finished now. By the time they could replace Turnbull with him his reputation and public popularity, as it might be, would have faded away to zero.

    So this is it for the Liberals, their best and only shot really. No wonder Labor got stuck into him early, he is like the last batsman.

    What a problem for the right-wing loons in some parts of the media then, who ache to support the Liberals but dislike that non-extreme Liberal Turnbull who beat the plans of Minchin and Co. How they must have to keep swallowing their bile when writing their PR pieces exalting the words and deeds of Turnbull as they must over the next two years. Some might go for the more palatable option instead and stick to slinging off at Rudd at every opportunity. Maybe.

    BTW If Rudd had gone out and implemented a whole bunch of projects in the first 6 months before analysis the media would be all over him like a rash as they should be. He would be called reckless. It is nutzoid to criticise a government for not doing anything within their first year.

  6. 26 Grog, etc: the only federal party leaders never to contest an election were Downer (Lib) and Crean (ALP), so the only strings of three in one term were Hewson-Downer-Howard and Beazley-Crean-Latham. Holt had one election, in 1966.

    As for those NSW by-elections, Watkins/Iemma/Meagher took the money and ran in Ryde/Lakemba/Cabramatta, and Rob Oakeshott went federal so the other by-election’s in Port Macquarie. I don’t think anyone else quit… yet…

  7. [Dario, I went to google and typed “singapore benchmark” to find out more about it. The first link directed to this interesting site in WA:]

    Yes. There are a lot of elements to the price of fuel. Just because one component goes down by 30% doesn’t mean the end price goes down by 30%.

    e.g. Price for good X = $30 raw goods + $10 transport + $5 storage + $10 processing = $55. If the cost of the raw goods goes up by 50% ($15) then the total price increases to $70, an increase of 27%

  8. Judith Barnes 20!

    I agree with you on that Interest Rates will be lower, but Penioners will always be moaning about their lot but regarding your comment about the Global Economic situation while I think Australia will avoid recession but America and Europe are or will be in recession and while things can turn around fairly quickly the problem the Americans have is the vacant houses that need to be sold and also their budget position is very weak, America has been severly weaken by the past few months but in saying that China is still looking at 10% growth, and Asia as a whole is in very good condition.

    As I wrote elsewhere the best case for America is an Asian economic type recession which can be overcome within a few short years or worst case a repeat of the Melbourne 1890s Depression which could take many years to recover from.

  9. TP @ 58,

    “What a problem for the right-wing loons in some parts of the media then, who ache to support the Liberals but dislike that non-extreme Liberal Turnbull who beat the plans of Minchin and Co. How they must have to keep swallowing their bile when writing their PR pieces exalting the words and deeds of Turnbull as they must over the next two years. ”

    Maybe they can emmigrate en masse to Alaska 😉 [McCain is going DOWN ……….. ]

  10. OK, what has the Rudd govt done…

    hmm

    Handed down an economically responsible budget?
    Stopped the “pacific solution”?
    Began caring about infrastructure?
    Brought in a solar panel rebate (should’ve been more but it’s a start)?
    Got rid of AWAs?
    Introduced an IR legislation policy that is actually what it promised in the election?
    50% child care rebate?
    Actually done something on the water issue (rather than just say “Hey we’re going to spend $10b – and then do nothing)?
    Making the policy about climate change actually about doing something rather than just trying to scare the horses?
    Providing the tax cuts its promised to deliver at the last election?
    50% education tax rebate introduced?
    Decided that $50k is not exactly high income, so increased the medicare levy threshold?

    geez, I don’t know – that’s all from memory… will have missed other things.

    Look ok they haven’t done a hell of lot “big stuff” – though I would like to know what they should have done that is “big”.

    And the fact is, if they did try and do anything big, the LNP would block it in the sentate and accusse Rudd of being all talk.

    According to Turnbull $6b now “is just rhetoric”. Intersting, I guess inflation really is out of the bottle then.

  11. I thought that the Singapore price was less than the world price anyway and given that other components of oil pricing haven’t changed (which they may well have – but how would you know) I still stand by my rough calculations. In reality prices haven’t changed very much at all.

  12. I think banning Naked short selling is a Family First plot. We need more Naked shorty stuff.

    Maybe Naked QT? On that note its bed time for sick old me. Nite All. 😉

  13. [and given that other components of oil pricing haven’t changed]

    Exactly. If the oil price is only one component then a 30% drop in it may only mean and end price petrol drop of 15%. Combine that with the AUD dropping 15%+ and it has roughly balanced out.

  14. Dario at #66

    I’ll have to bow to your superior knowledge but I still think that compared with whatever the price of oil was at its highest the price and if the MSM media is correct in their assertion that a dollar drop in the price per barrel equates to 75 cents drop per litre in petrol at the bowser then petrol today should be roughly what I stated and on that note I’ll end my ranting.

  15. I think Shanahan is living in another dimension or else taking some substance that he may be better off giving up forthwith.

    [Many Liberal MPs have come to the conclusion that the Rudd Government lacks cohesion and forward thrust, and that under the weight of economic difficulties and an emissions trading scheme it could be the first oncer government in more than 80 years.

    Liberal strategists have been arguing for some time that Rudd’s public support, although high, is soft and that the key to cutting back Labor’s lead is having a credible Opposition.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24367650-7583,00.html

  16. [Liberal strategists have been arguing for some time that Rudd’s public support, although high, is soft]

    Yeah, since Rudd became opposition leader. How’s that strategy been working for them so far Shanners? Time for another ‘the honeymoon is over’ pronouncement?

  17. How on earth could the Liberals think such utter nonsense? There is quite plainly no evidence in support of his statements, it is 100% fantasy. In fact they in truth will be worrying that their Liberal party could be decimated at the next election if Turnbull is unable to get any traction.

    Surely the Liberal party are not that deluded?

    Rudd will not lose the next election unless the government does something quite terrible. They wont be voted out just because the Liberal party find themselves an acceptable leader which is still to be shown.

  18. If there is a real economic smash of course Rudd could lose in 2010. The parallels between Rudd and Scullin are interesting. Although that analogy requires Nathan Rees to be Jack Lang, which seems unlikely.

  19. Hey, now I know why Rudd hasn’t achieved anything.

    He is always out of the country.

    He is off to New York on his 10th (that’s right folks 10th!) junket.

    How long has he been in government?

    That’s right 10 months!

    I believe that’s a record for a pm in the first year of government.

    Oops my bad.

    He hasn’t been in government for a year yet!

  20. snore kj. At least when Rudd goeas overseas he goes to do business, not catch a test match at Lords.

    and apparently there are these new thingys called telephones that enable him to keep in touch with the acting PM.

  21. Clearly, the MSM Liberal supporters have so little faith in any Coalition resurgence, that they are trying to create a narrative that they believe if they repeat it enough, somehow, miraculously it will come true.

    It ain’t going to happen that way and a number of them are going to be on suicide watch or taking very strong anti-depressants for a long time after 2010.

    I really can’t understand how these people can possibly think that they can put forward nonsense such as this day after day and people will actually be influenced into believing any of it.

  22. I love this bit from Shana:

    “From the first minutes of the Turnbull reign there has been a discipline within Liberal ranks not seen for years”

    Years??? Even the harshest ALP hack (which some may call me) couldn’t suggest the Libs under howard were undisciplined. Weeks, definately, months, maybe. But years? Time to put down the pipe Shana and check what you’re smoking.

  23. More Shana gold:

    “After the soap opera of appeals to Peter Costello to think about becoming leader and the hype surrounding the release of his memoir, coupled with Nelson’s loss of authority within the shadow cabinet, the Opposition leader’s political life was limited to a few more weeks at best.”

    Gee, good thing Shana kept right out of that whole soap opera mess.

  24. At least when Rudd goeas(sic) overseas he goes to do business, not catch a test match at Lords.

    Or put an appearance in at a strip club. lol!

    Actually, have you been getting stuck into the grog mate. !

  25. KJ @ 80,

    I am sure this is one of the lead issues from the latest Liberal “talking point sheets” out of Lib headquarters.

    It’s clogging up the internet and is being so overdone that the exact opposite effect will result.

    Why can’t Lib supporters put forward positive issues that will improve the standing of their favoured Party in the electorate.

    Trying to tear down Rudd and Labor hasn’t worked to date, the Polls clearly demonstrate that, so why oh why do you all persist with a badly loosing formula.

    The last thing people need, especially at a time like this, is constant negativity and personal sniping. The Liberal Party have been relentlessly attacking Rudd since before he attained the leadership and all it has done is bolster his approval.

    Very slow learners, these people.

  26. [So what whether it’s in the first year or not kj? So Howard didn’t go away in the first year – so what?]

    Apparently there’s some unwritten rule for PMs we don’t know about…

  27. One thing I did notice is Shannahan has resumed having “comments”. Also, for some reason they’re letting in critical ones. This must have stung if he read it.

    [You’re a disgrace, Shanahan. You kept on cheerleading for the Howard Government all through last year, despite the polls prediciting the impending train wreck. Then you ran with the non-story of the Smirk’s comeback, despite the fact that everyone else knew it wasn’t going to happen. You really should have tendered your resignation to Rupert after that one. Now you are suggesting that with Turnbull, the Libs will win the next election! Isn’t it about time you did the honourable thing and resigned? You are so biased that what you write doesn’t qualify as news. And it is way past would be considered any form of editorial.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24367650-7583,00.html

  28. The Liberal party are walking a high wire at the moment with no safety net. If Turnbull turns out to be a dudd then the next election will be a blood bath. If Turnbull fails they will have to adopt a low profile and be compliant in the Senate so as to not get too badly punished.

    Too bad the NATS went with the Libs in WA.

  29. So what whether it’s in the first year or not kj? So Howard didn’t go away in the first year – so what?

    Nobody would invite him anywhere was the reason Howard went nowhere in his first year.

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