Morgan: 55.5-44.5

A pre-Turnbull Roy Morgan face-to-face poll of 1703 respondents, conducted over the previous two weekends, has Labor’s two-party lead down from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5. Labor has taken a five point hit on the primary vote since the late August survey, from 50 per cent to 45 per cent, although the Coalition is only up one point to 38 per cent. Most of the balance is accounted for by a spike in the “independent/others” vote from 4.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, which is 1 per cent higher than at any stage during the current term. The Greens are up from 6.5 per cent to 8 per cent.

UPDATE (20/9/08): Comments brings news of a Galaxy poll to appear in tomorrow’s News Limited papers showing Kevin Rudd leading Malcolm Turnbull as preferred leader 58 per cent to 28 per cent; 63 per cent say Turnbull will make no difference to their vote; 48 per cent describe Turnbull as arrogant compared with 23 per cent for Kevin Rudd. ABC TV reports the sample was about 400. Hat-tip: Bushfire Bill and Andos.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

339 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5”

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  1. ruawake,Truss has really matched it with Albanese hasn’t he? A super star in the making no doubt. Good to see so much youth and talent in vital areas of the Opposition front bench. Truss is only about 65 years young isn’t he?

  2. Channel 9 have an hour long news on the Sunday mornings starting at 8.00 and Laurie conducts a political interview during that hour, usually in thelast half hour.

  3. Perhaps, but it would also look bad leaving him in a job he doesnt like and wont do to the best of his abilities.

    That’s why i suspect he will be moved, perhaps to IR or Education and bring some young bloke up through the outer ministry who’ll be chomping at the bit for his job.

  4. Glen…which, with the logic that seems to work within the Lib Party at the moment, will probably mean that Bronwyn Bishop gets the gig.

    (Think of the most inappropriate person for the particular pos and they’re probably in…)

  5. True Glen. Nice little annoyance though for Turnbull to have to deal with in the frst week. I’m betting it’s the first of many time Turnbull will be wondering if Abbott’s support is THAT necessary.

  6. I will try again without the mobile this time.

    I would have thought it unusual for an opposition leader, especially a brand spanking new one, to have such a high arrogance rating. Normally that comes with being in office. If the numbers were reveresed I would have understood. This indicates to me that people remember him from the Howard days and since and have already formed an opinion of Turnbull.

    I reckon being considered arrogant when your in power isn’t so bad as it is associated with power. But having the rating without power, in the submissive positioin, probably means many think your a DH. So I reckon Turnbull has got a bit of work to do. This also explains Turnbull’s effort to show his humble origins the other day – he had already done the research and is aware of public opinion on him. It also explains Labor’s attempt to reinforce the image.

    His PPM are lower than the LNP Primary so it is not as though they have been sitting waiting for Turnbull to take over so they could all cheer and then vote for him. Possum’s analysis of late that Nelson lost Liberal primary voters to others begins to ring true – but of course very early days.

    Though I guess he will be much better for the polls than Nelson was.

    I am still hoping for an outlier 58/42 justs to see the horror on their faces and wondering if Nelson was the correct candidate after all..hehe.

  7. So Willmott missed out on the Barnett cabinet, eh? I guess the Federal Senate’s not a bad booby prize.

    Did they report the same figures for the Galaxy poll in the Perth bulletin?

  8. 25 PPM not a great figure for a new leader, and still means almost half Lib voters prefer Rudd as PM

    Is there a 2PP figure??

    SNIP: Tedious dig at other commenter deleted – The Management.

  9. “I am still hoping for an outlier 58/42 justs to see the horror on their faces and wondering if Nelson was the correct candidate after all..hehe.”

    No-one is ever going to think Nelson was the right candidate.

  10. [NEW federal opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull has trounced Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in a new poll – beating him as the most arrogant politician.]
    Great opening paragraph in that link Dario.

  11. I guess he has 12 months to fix it before he gets fixed. There is a way I believe that they can close some of the gap but I aint going to give them any hints. It is trick people use when they are obviously out classed, out performed and under skilled. But then again my idea might be wrong.

  12. So no Turnball inspired bounce for the Libs, after the MSM has spent the last few days talking up the prospects of a Coalition victory in 2010? LMAO

  13. [So no Turnball inspired bounce for the Libs, after the MSM has spent the last few days talking up the prospects of a Coalition victory in 2010? LMAO]

    Ahh yes but Cossie was the true saviour, remember 😉

  14. Daley comes out with this sort of nonsense from time to time. It is pure fantasy of course. Stuff like – “…Rudd seems to be so utterly rattled by him..”

    On what on earth does he base that? Nothing of course, just pure invention. I can only assume he thinks he needs to write something to lift the spirits of the Coalition from time to time. It is actually a poor piece of writing but if fills the pages and is the manadtory pro-liberal piece for the weekend.

    Daley might cast his mind back to Rudd’s battle with the little electioneering master Howard and against a hostile media determined to smear and bring him down. Rudd remained cool and defeated them all under intense pressure. And we might recall he basically sent Howard into depression and, we had that infamous dark night where he almost gave up the leadership. Turnbull is no Howard and there is no Costello figure left. Rudd is up against a mostly talentless LNP and Turbull represents the pinnacle of their talent.

    Rudd rattled?

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