Morgan: 55.5-44.5

A pre-Turnbull Roy Morgan face-to-face poll of 1703 respondents, conducted over the previous two weekends, has Labor’s two-party lead down from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5. Labor has taken a five point hit on the primary vote since the late August survey, from 50 per cent to 45 per cent, although the Coalition is only up one point to 38 per cent. Most of the balance is accounted for by a spike in the “independent/others” vote from 4.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, which is 1 per cent higher than at any stage during the current term. The Greens are up from 6.5 per cent to 8 per cent.

UPDATE (20/9/08): Comments brings news of a Galaxy poll to appear in tomorrow’s News Limited papers showing Kevin Rudd leading Malcolm Turnbull as preferred leader 58 per cent to 28 per cent; 63 per cent say Turnbull will make no difference to their vote; 48 per cent describe Turnbull as arrogant compared with 23 per cent for Kevin Rudd. ABC TV reports the sample was about 400. Hat-tip: Bushfire Bill and Andos.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

339 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5”

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  1. GP @ 248,

    Just a “slight” re-writing of history here it would seem. “Millions”???

    [The liberal coffers are filling thanks to Malcolms unmistakably pro-business past.]

    Probably IOU’s.

  2. No “factions” in the Liberal Party, eh GP?

    [Mr Macfarlane appealed to the Queensland Liberals’ notorious factional warlords, whose rivalries have crippled the state organisation for two decades, to stop bickering and get behind the new entity. “I have to say that one of the big appeals to me as an individual member is the fact that the LNP, through sheer weight of numbers, will obliterate the past factionalism of the Liberal Party,” he said. “We have a whole new start; let’s get on with it.”],25197,24373762-5006786,00.html

  3. Has anyone taken a look at the Daily Terror poll? The qustion is – who won the week, Rudd or Turnbull? I think you can guess the result so far. The Young Libs our out enforce.

  4. I believe he converted to become a Catholic when he married Lucy.
    He is only the second Roman Catholic leader of the Liberal Party. I havent a clue who was the first, maybe Sneddon or Peacock.

  5. Snedden was a Presbyterian, Peacock is an Anglican. I can’t think of a Catholic Liberal leader. Certainly Menzies, Holt, Gorton, McMahon, Snedden, Fraser, Peacock and Howard were / are not. That only leaves Hewson, Downer and Nelson, who I don’t know about.

  6. [The liberal coffers are filling thanks to malcolms unmistakably pro-business past. They will continue to fill as voters contemplate years of emptiness that rudd heralds.]

    Pro-business PAST?

    If it’s true the Lib coffers are fillng up (and if you believe that snippet of outrageous spin then you believe in fairies in the bottom of the garden), the sober and clear-thinking nabobs of Business would not be giving Malcolm money for his PAST affiliations. They would be doing it because they think he may stab the Battlers in the back by re-introducing WorkChoices and further deregulating a finance industry already gone mad and bad.

    GP, you should know it doesn’t work that way. Business people are supposed to be smart, not dumb. They don’t throw money away after lost causes. They get governments to bail them out, instead.

  7. Well Brendan is a good Irish Catholic name, so maybe it’s the late Dr Nelson. The fact that he started out in the ALP like all good Catholics might suggest that too. I’d be exceedingly surprised if it was Downer.

  8. “Turnbull” seems like an apt name for Malcolm.

    He turned on his friend and mentor, Packer. He turned from Labor to Liberal. He Turned on John Howard after the referendum (and then turned back when it was convenient). Now we hear he’s turned against his own religion for the sake of an advantageous marriage to money (unless GP’s going to argue he witnessed a burning bush at some stage).

    The “bull” part of “Turnbull” is perfectly self-explanatory.

    As I said above: the Alcibiades of Australian politics.

  9. “Nelson was the first Roman Catholic to lead the Liberal Party of Australia.”

    I hate to quote Wiki, but there you go 2 roman catholics in a row for our side of politics.

    What is Rudd? Surely he’s not Pentacostal lol?

  10. Mor4gan Poll gets a mention in the Oz again.

    [FORMER Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson, replaced this week by Malcolm Turnbull, failed to make any significant impression on the electorate, the latest Morgan poll confirms.

    The poll of 1703 voters, conducted over two weekends earlier this month, placed Labor well ahead of the Coalition despite some modest gains. ]

    But I think this statement is a slight understatement. I think they meant “obliterated”.

    [Pollster Gary Morgan said if a federal election was held today, the ALP would win according to these results.],25197,24375626-12377,00.html

  11. Glen has beaten me to the punch. Nelson is the first nominally Catholic leader of the Liberal Party, and I assume he has not officially relinquished his membership despite being a serial marrier. I read at the time of the Spycatcher saga that Turnbull converted to Catholicism in order to mary Lucy.
    Being a Catholic is not a descriptor of political leanings of course, despite the strong disapproval of them in the Menzies era Liberal party. Phil Cleary was a Catholic from the old Irish Catholic social democratic wing which played a very big part in the history of the ALP, Concetta Fieravanti-Wells on the other hand is from something akin the Franco-ist/Augusto Pinochet Catholic as dictator holy warrior wing. Such people are now playing a big part in the conservatisation of the Liberal Party, and will go a long way towards making it relatively unelectable if not reined in.
    Rudd was raised a Catholic but changed to Anglican during his University days. He regularly attends St Johns Anglican Church in Reid ACT, just across the lake from Parliament House which I am led to believe is not a Penticostal Church in the normal understanding of the term.

  12. If Turnbull isn’t Catholic, he almost certainly would be Anglican. Regardless of which denomination, he would almost certainly come from the “liberal” wing of both churches – much like the religious views held by the Liberal bluebloods on the Sydney North Shore…

  13. I think John Brogden as NSW Liberal leader was also catholic.

    The mad monk is of course, Minchin, John Fahey former liberal finance minister. Also the NSW radical right nut jobs – the so called “exclusive brotherhood” are as well.

    So quite a few around.

    Of course the libs have plenty of people to hate these days – so no need to be exclusive in any way – better to spread it around, like the shite of their policies.

  14. I remember Brogden fondly. We went to the same school )not the same year, though) and at an old boys function we got chatting. When I fessed up that I’d never vote for him, nice boke though he was, he asked me where I live. I nominated a suburb in Sydney’s leafy north-western suburbs. Chortling, he riposted, “Well, we don’t need your ****ing vote, anyway!”

    I had to admit he had a point.

    I think he got a bum rap from the Opus Dei cabal. Not Papist enough for their astringent likings. Should have been a Labor man. Rudd has, I think, four or five ministers from that same school.

  15. Sorry for the double post, but I’m just listening to 9 News and they are running the latest Galazy poll results on the two leaders.

    Rudd 58%, Turnbull 28%.

    Rudd won all 6 categories of voter opinion except one: arrogance.


  16. BB #273

    Yeah heard that – had a great chuckle lol

    Why would ppl think allbull arrogant ?

    That would have to be a record for burning the “honeymoon” – less than a week !

    The fibs will have look around for a new messiah real quick.

    See shannanananahan getting a hiding over on his blog – the comments actually
    being put up publicly.

    The shadow cabinet to be announced tomorrow sometime ?

  17. anyone know who is on Meet the Press and Insiders? Turnbull would have to bo on one of them? (And Laurie Oakes must be thinking – “that wouldv’e been my interview”!!))

  18. ABC news reports on Galaxy poll for tomorrow:
    Preferred Prime Minister Rudd 58% to Turnbull 25%.
    63% say Turnbull makes no difference to their vote.
    48% describe Turnbull as arrogant as opposed to 23% for Kevin Rudd.

  19. Didn’t Nelson get 6%???

    Adam yes that comment on Brogden was rather an unpleasant thing to say.

    I’d say Laurie should win it over, but Malcolm could just as easily be on Insiders?

    I hope Malcolm will announce his shadow cabinet soon?

  20. SBS said 28% for Turnbill’s PPM.

    It’s not a terrible number… but I believe Mr Crean and Mr Latham both managed numbers like that routinely.

    The perception of arrogance is certainly not a promising signal early on for the Liberal Party.

  21. Turnbull sure he’ll beat ‘phoney’ Kev,23599,24374681-5007133,00.html

    It’s probably been talked about already… but some of the lines in the story are just staggering:
    Just days after he seized the leadership, big business and votes appear to have swung behind him.

    First opinion polls are expected to show a bounce back to the Liberals and insiders say the party has received “sizeable” donations.

    A confident Mr Turnbull declared to the Herald Sun: “We are determined to make this a one-term Government.

    “We have a lot of work to do, but we can win,” he said.

    “I believe we will win.”


    I don’t even know where to start with all that…

  22. It was a giveaway that the latest polls were bad for the Libs once they sent their talking points over here on Friday night with a bunch of aggressive amateurs.

  23. I’ll start Itep:

    not surprising “big bsuiness” have increased donations – why would anyone donate to a Lib Party with Nelson? Turnbull would also have a few mates from that end ot town… But still any % increase would be coming of a low base.

    “votes appear to have swung behind him”??? Well it’s a pretty easy prediction that he’ll do better in the polls than Nelson, so it’s a bit of a nothing statement.

    “I believe we will win” Well you’d bloody well hope so (and rather unlikely he’d come out and say, “I see my progression to the Lodge as being a 5 year plan).

    I did like this part of the story:
    “He said the PM had promised “so much, done so little” since winning the election….
    Mr Turnbull said business had reacted well to his elevation.
    “Good money is coming in or has been promised,” a source said.

    I guess he likes the promises of big business more than those of Rudd 🙂

  24. That’s right, what a shame. Well it would seem stupid to not have a new Opposition leader on the box the week when he came to power.

    Bowen probably is more competant than Swan IMHO, at least he sounds convincing but yes it will be boring tomorrow morning.

    At least Julie Bishop will give people something to look at while she’s boring us with figures (the eyes).

    Foreign Affairs-Robb
    Family Services-Keenan

    But what do I know?

  25. The whole thing about big business donations rolling in is also staggering in its hypocrisy. Labor accepting big money from unions is bad and means that they must now be beholden to them… yet they can accept large donations from big business and expect us to believe big business wants nothing in return? It’s a nonsense.

  26. Actually the Libs havent matched ministries have they.

    Ruawake I cannot think of anybody being infrastructure shadow? So i guess we havent matched up with Labor?

    Perhaps Malcolm make up his own?
    Perhaps take a leaf out of Barnett’s book and have a shadow for mental health?

    I wouldnt think Pyne and Monk would get along terribly well, but they both got Turnbull the job didnt they. I wouldnt be surprised if Monk got a different job, while i am not akin to all his political views he is a solid parliamentary performer. I would like to see him have a go on IR.

  27. Thomas Paine: I imagine that there are a lot of undecideds. If his PPM is still significantly lower than the primary vote after 6 months, then we know he’s got a problem.

    It does seem like it would be difficult to overturn the high arrogance rating with time, though. How do you convince people you’re not really arrogant, while maintaining your credibility?

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