Morgan: 55.5-44.5

A pre-Turnbull Roy Morgan face-to-face poll of 1703 respondents, conducted over the previous two weekends, has Labor’s two-party lead down from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5. Labor has taken a five point hit on the primary vote since the late August survey, from 50 per cent to 45 per cent, although the Coalition is only up one point to 38 per cent. Most of the balance is accounted for by a spike in the “independent/others” vote from 4.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, which is 1 per cent higher than at any stage during the current term. The Greens are up from 6.5 per cent to 8 per cent.

UPDATE (20/9/08): Comments brings news of a Galaxy poll to appear in tomorrow’s News Limited papers showing Kevin Rudd leading Malcolm Turnbull as preferred leader 58 per cent to 28 per cent; 63 per cent say Turnbull will make no difference to their vote; 48 per cent describe Turnbull as arrogant compared with 23 per cent for Kevin Rudd. ABC TV reports the sample was about 400. Hat-tip: Bushfire Bill and Andos.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

339 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5”

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  1. From the previous thread…

    [Dario, I factored in the currency differential when I did the calculation, though our dollar has only dropped about 15 cents from when oil was $147. Its now less than $99, exactly a third cheaper.]

    Australian petrol follows the Singapore benchmark, not the world oil price

  2. [ GP (Previous thread) – Rudd is a bastion of supreme arrogance.]
    Another surprising comment GP. I’m just totally taken back.

  3. the papers and talkback have been laying into Rudd over the pensions and the libs have been rallying the pensioners into demonstrating, thats the only negative Rudd has had in the last couple of weeks, i dont know if that would account for the drop, going by this the libs should get a boost next newspoll.

  4. Talcum has an image problem, that is why the first thing he talked about in his post coup presser was the “flat” thing. He knows it, don’t tell me he has not run focus groups on it. It is his biggest problem – peoples perception of him.

    He realises that the “investment banker” persona he carefully crafted may not be the flavour of the month at the moment either.

    How long before we get leadership tensions rising again? I reckon after Christmas. 🙂

  5. If not Malcolm and Costello has ruled himself out, they won’t go to Nelson again, then who?

    Might Costello change his mind? 😉 ….. I guess that is the million dollar question as long as he stays in parliament

  6. I think Costello is gone for good, he may stay in parliament but he is unelectable now. Both as leader of the opposition and as PM.

    Who kows who the next messiah is but I bet there are a few formulating a “cunning plan”.

  7. I can’t see a one of them being able to swing it. The current shadow cabinet doesn’t have a single member who can pull it off. Julie Bishop can’t sell herself nationwide because she is tarred with the Work Choices brush. There isn’t anyone else, zero, zilch, zippo …….

  8. Whatever the polls do now inevitably before the next election they will get down to the 54-53 mark unless Turnbull is a total goose and appears incompetent.

    Rudd wont lose the next election unless Labor do something totally stupid like a Workchoices. Just steady as you go competent management will be plenty to get them through.

    This time around there will not be any narrowing for Labor as the ‘fear of change from the Howard era’ factor no longer exists. The fear if it opperates will be the other way. If the economy goes bad not many will be blaming the government as we have all witnessed how we are subject to the global economy. Australians will understand much better just how much of a role the international economy plays. Then we have Rudd and China with China seeming ever so more important now given the softness in the USA economy.

    The worst thing I reckon is for Rudd to give credence to Turnbull and others by engaging them. He should press on as though they dont exist.

  9. Ha Ha Talcum can’t help himself, he said “$600 million is not a lot of money” this was in the context of stalled budget bills in the senate but it has wider ramifications.

    He is such a political novice – Talcum it would give 350,000 carers a $30 a week rise in the pension. 🙂

  10. 55-45!! Sure its only one poll but it was only a matter of time before the poll numbers returned to a more normal looking set of numbers.
    In saying that with the Economy tighening and with the Government facing several tough debates the next election result will most likely be similar to the last one in terms of numbers.

  11. (Apologies William for posting off topic)

    “The Speaker, Richard Torbay, says a by-election for Lakemba will now be held on the same date as those set for the seats of Ryde, Cabramatta and Port Macquarie.

    “I intend to issue the writs on Monday and the elections will take place on [October] the 18th. All four by-elections at the same time, which I consider to be very much in the public interest,” he said. ”

    All 4 by-elections on the same day as the ACT elections ……………..

  12. Mexicanbeemer, by the next election this world crisis should be all over bar the shouting, ALL the pensioners will have been given their raise, the interest rates will be down, petrol hopefully will be lower and Rudd will have started implimenting his policies and thrown off the do nothing tag, people have found it hard to comprehend Rudd’s habit of gathering a wide range of opinions before acting, especially after years of Howard’s scribble on the back of an envelope, bypassing cabinet and treasury style of policies, i think the public will welcome Rudd’s style when they see how well researched his policies are.

  13. 15 ruawake I think he said %6 BILLION is not a lot of money…

    What a pathetic notion he put out there today. Bipartisan approach?? wtf. Pass the budget and IR legislation and then we’ll talk.

  14. Yep Judith you are correct.

    At the next election, interest rates will be lower, Swanee will have negotiated the great investment bank swindle, and Talcum will be past history. 😉

  15. No 20

    Every economist in all the majors, including the Fin Review, says that a surplus of $22 billion is unnecessary and/or that a $6 billion “hit” will have no material effect on interest rates.

  16. [I think Turnbull will still be there – has any party ever had 3 leaders between elections?]

    WA had 3 Liberal leaders before they recycled Barnett again 🙂

  17. GP

    I was talking about the important thing in politics – perception. Talcum may say this is not a lot of money, which in the context of the budget it is not.

    BUT when it is pointed out how much this amount of money can be used for, pensioners, elective surgury, dentist visits, aged care etc etc. It was very dumb politics.

  18. The Libs had Hewson, Downer and Howard between 1993 and 1996.

    Vic Labor had Kirner, Kennan and Brumby between 1992 and 1996.

    Not exactly the same because Hewson and Kirner were both lame ducks following election losses. I don’t think anyone except the WA Libs have ever had three NEW leaders (Birney, Omodei, Buswell) in one parliament and discarded all of them to go back to the leader they started with (Barnett).

  19. What really, has this government done to improve the lives of ordinary Australians. .
    Sure, a lot of symbolism, like signing kyoto, saying sorry, watching food prices, watching fuel prices….

    This piece from “New Matilda.” As relevant today as it was back in June.

    And Wayne Swan is Also a Tool
    by Helen Razer on June 18th, 2008

    It is not often I concur with the Opp. There are a few secure issues, of course. We permit that human beings breathe oxygen; that the pope wears a white frock; that John Howard’s party boot rule created more lib factions that your average private girls’ school. And that, I’m afraid, is about it.

    Although, today I am discomfited by another point of agreement. Wayne Swan (to employ the parlance of Elke) is a tool.

    In government, Julie Bishop, as I recall, said some woefully stupid things. Her critique in opposition of the treasurer’s Penny Pinching hints, however, is not entirely unjustified.

    You can find the tips here. Frankly, they’re about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

    Along with fuel watch, nanny watch and navel watch, such initiatives do nothing but make government appear listless in the face of capital. As a list of “hints” it’s crap. I’m certain Margaret Fulton or, indeed, any number of Voluntary Simplicity/Penny Pincher websites could offer more. As evidence of the government’s hard, hard work to reverse the recession of our every day, it’s crap with more crap on top. Where’s the freaking Out Of The Box thinking we were promised? Where’s the intervention in my shopping bill? And, if you can’t mediate with the monster of capital, spend your fugging time giving me serving suggestions about, for example, grocery buying cooperatives or car pools. I DO NOT WANT TO KNOW HOW TO SPEND FIFTY CENTS LESS ON COCA COLA YOU SLUGGISH MORON.

    Tags: wayne swan Comments (2)

  20. 33 – Another person who believes we should just make it up as we go along. Don’t bother about planning or, because it’s a new government, finding out where we’re at. Not needed. Don’t bother about real reform and certainly don’t bother about long term structural changes. No, just patch up the old system. spend money when someone shouts loud enogh and look good for the next election. That’s what we’ve been used to. Why change now?

  21. Oh, and of course this government should have changed everything by now, such as hospitals, education, infrastructure, computers. Ten months is plenty of time to have it all done. As I said unbelievable.
    kj feel free to tell us what you think the government should have been able to have done by now. Make a list.

  22. What really, has this government done to improve the lives of ordinary Australians Gary?

    Come on, where did I say 10 months would be plenty of time to have it “done”?

    A little tetchy aren’t we?

    It was this government that suggested fuel watch and grocery watch would make life easier for the ordinary Australian. Both have achieved nought, imo. Just cost the tax payer money. Even workchoices (which should have been consigned to the rubbish bin) has now become “workchoices lite”

    Like I said I see a lot of symbolic stuff, but nothing concrete.
    Why for instance do pensioners have to wait until June to get the rise they so deparately need.
    Both Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard say they could not survive on the pension.
    As Bob Brown says, it’s cruel to make pensioners wait.

  23. I agree with GP (??) – excessive surpluses are not desirable, the Government is not there to make money. BUT I think Mr Rudd and co best keep the surplus as high as possible in the short time and wait to see how this ‘economic crisis’ plays out before spending it. It would be wise to have a lot of money set aside to inject where and when needed into the relevant areas that will need shoring up. If the crisis fails to eventuate then they can always use the money to buy back Telstra and C’Wealth bank.

  24. “Might Costello change his mind? ….. I guess that is the million dollar question as long as he stays in parliament”

    Actually it’s the $29.99 discount book sale question…

  25. KJ at 39 – I know its not going to be popular but I happen to like Grocery Choice – the website was easy to use, in three clicks I found relevant info. Admittedly it could go into a lot more detail and sure it shouldn’t have cost $10 million to set up BUT, having worked in the IT industry in the Australian POublic Service under the Howard regime, I’m impressed – I’ve seen a lot simpler web services take longer to put together and cost a whole lot more and still be released with issues. Particularly internal systems – the ATO spent (and is probably still spending) 100s of millions of dollars on somethign called the ‘Change Program’ that definitely changed all the internal systems, but delivered not one extra service for the public. And it started five years ago and is still going. It would make you weep to see the amount of money wasted on that project. At least Grocery Choice delivers a service (though you might argue how useful it is).

  26. No list of what you would have expected to be done kj? Come on you’ve made the charge that they have done nothing. Tell me what you think they should have done in the ten months they’ve been in.
    The pension is that it? Another patch up job, is that what you want? Just for one group, leave out the rest? Don’t worry about fixing the system that sees the pensioners as a whole group get a better deal? Easy charge to make and very short sighted.

  27. kj @ 39. Reduced taxes? Didn’t think fuel watch was operational as yet. There’s more to the pension system than just sole aged pensioners. Why, for instance, should we not include those on disability pensions, who often have extra costs for medication or aids? In fact it’s an enormously complex system and if you’re going to reform it, particularly in conjunction with a review of the tax system, also complex, it takes time to do so, if you’re going to be thorough and try and minimise unintended consequences, such as disincentives in the tax rate for people who can do part-time work.

  28. Mayo Feral (from previous thread). I too have been wondering why the price of petrol hasn’t dropped more. When oil was $145 a barrel, if I recall properly, the top price of petrol outside the discount cycle was $1.70/litre and the discount price was around $1.55/litre, i.e. 15 cents less. Currently oil is around $100 per barrel. Now, I don’t know what the nexus between the price per barrel and the price per litre is, but I thought I read somewhere that it was 75 cents for every increase/decrease of a dollar in the price per barrel of oil. If this is the case the non discounted price of petrol should have been reduced by approximately $45 multiplied by 75 cents, i.e. 33.75 cents before factoring in the effect of the falling value of the Australian dollar.
    Currently, the Australian dollar will buy 80 cents US in round terms so it has dropped from a high of 97 cents US. However that high only applied for a very short time and at that time the Aussie dollar operated in a range of 90-95 cents US or a drop in value ranging from 10-15 cents or approximately 11-16%. I’m not sure how to apply this to my calculated 33.75 cents reduction but assuming you deduct 11-16% from 33.75 cents. I come up with something like 28.3 to 30.0 cents.
    So, in summary, the non-discounted price should be 28-30 cents less than what it was at the height of oil price hike, i.e. $1.40-$1.42. Deduct from this the 15 cents reduction applied during the discount cycle, I would have thought that we should be paying something like $1.25/litre here in Adelaide on discount Tuesday.

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