Newspoll: 55-45

Mumble reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead dropping from 59-41 to 55-45, with primary votes of 44 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent for Coalition, 10 per cent for Greens and 7 per cent others. More to follow.

Meanwhile, Alexander Downer confirms he will quit parliament to take up a job as United Nations special envoy to Cyprus. Mayo by-election to follow.

UPDATE (2/7/07): Today’s Australian provides further figures on standard of living expectations, which have plunged shockingly – “get worse” being up from 18 per cent to 43 per cent since December. While I’m here, a belated link to yesterday’s graphic.

UPDATE (3/7/07): Newspoll has released its quarterly aggregated poll which provides breakdowns by state, gender and age. It suggests the Rudd honeymoon effect has been especially strong in South Australia and in metropolitan areas, is fading quickest in Victoria, and did not further increase support for Labor in the 18-34 age group. Two of these four are consistent with the result of the Gippsland by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Neal was playing pedantic games – she didn’t say (word for word) what Mirabella said she did, so she was right to say that.
    But it was being too cute by half.

  2. Zoom,
    right you are. The fine distinction is probably what will save her on that one, but it all just adds to the story and negtive perception.

  3. Poor old Sophie.

    She was perfectly happy to make comments about Neale being a “man hater” but when Neal gives her a serve back she gets full of indignation and goes crying to the media.

  4. Hiya Zoom!
    shame to see Labor pollies engaging in the now-Opposition tactics of semantics.
    IT’s not so much what she said to Sophie (not very nice I admit), but the pathetic denial. I think most Australians of whichever side of politics are fed up with this kind of behaviour. I hope Rudd shows some gumption and has her sacked.

  6. 148
    Optimist Says:
    I think that the whole Neal saga again goes to the issue of how candidates are selected for the ALP.

    Agree with that.

    I do not agree with those who think that his has hurt the Rudd government. It hasn’t. At least, not yet. It could, depending on how Rudd handles it from now. But Rudd is correctly not doing too much until the formal legal investigations are completed. Once that is done, I have no doubt he will act swiftly and decisively. He has clearly already put Neal on strong notice about her behaviour. I’ll bet a million bucks that behind closed doors she has been well and truly read the riot act in no uncertain language.

    I do not expect Neal or DellaBosca to be preselected again, and Neal is probably going to be thrown out of the party. And I won’t miss either of them.

  7. 153
    ruawake

    Yup, I don’t think anybody is sticking up for Sophie Mirabella. I think just punishment for them both is to be locked in a room together for a week.

  8. 149 Brenton

    I hadn’t looked at the candidates names but you are right. All six are men. Given that the winner of the seat could ignore his (don’t have to say “or her”) electorate for ever while clambering up the Liberal pole, so to speak, it’s pretty telling that there are no Lib females in the running.

  9. Just Me 156,
    Aside from jeopordising Robertson, I don’t think that it has hurt Rudd particularly either, but it’s a bale of hay on the camel, so to speak.
    There will need to be plenty more straws before its back breaks, but a strong, disciplined, forward-looking party would always wanna keep that hump as clean as pssible.
    Did i just totally mangle that metaphor?

  10. I can’t see what can be done by Rudd or the ALP to save Robertson. I realise that the next election is way off, but perhaps not too far – an early election is quite a possibility, particularly if they wanna get to the polls before an ETS starts to bite.
    Belinda Neal is turning into the Damir Dokic of Australian politics.

  16. Progressive writes: “2. McEwen? I wouldn’t be too optimistic about the decision going against Fran Bailey.”

    Mmm, before the result is announced I’ll get in my own guess.

    I tend to agree with Mackerass on Crikey. Most likely result is a by-election and the least likely is Bailey being given the all clear, with Mitchell being re-instated somewhere in between. But a by-election would be the short priced favourite, I reckon.

    Rod

  21. John of Melbourne,
    cheers.
    I was gonna go with a Helen Demidenko, “Hand that Signed the Stat Dec” thing, but thought it was getting a bit obscure.

  22. 170
    John of Melbourne Says:
    July 2nd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
    …. I agree with Bolt on this one…

    Hey John. You’d agree with Bolt on most things wouldn’t you? 😉

  23. Is that the “Bolt” who has written Rudd off as a one term wonder? I just can’t take that bloke seriously on anything.

  25. I think Bolt even goes as far as to saying Costello could win it for the Libs next election (from what I’ve been told anyway). LOL

  26. Bolt is an idiot. Any references to his articles to ‘prove something’ only prove that the person referencing them is also an idiot.

  27. A life changing choice to make:

    If you are sitting on a table and the staffs start to remove all the tables to create a dance floor, so people can dance, do you?

    a. Go sit in the corner, where staff direct you;
    b. Ignore them and have people dancing around you; or
    c. Ask them “Do you know who I am!”

    Sometimes taking the path less taken is not that smart

  29. Yeah true I do agree with Bolt on most things. I must say though that I can’t see Rudd being a one term wonder but stranger things have happened.

  31. That’s true John (179), you never say never in a two horse race but it is unlikely. A realistic conservative supporter, we should have him stuffed! LOL

  32. 180 JoM it was becoming apparent after the April 22 decision that a Bailey win was the most likely outcome but you never can be sure till the last vote is counted.

  33. I actually think Labor is quite relieved Bailey hung on to McEwen. After the Gippsland shenanigans the last thing want right now is another by-election and another potential rebuff…

    Labor not contesting McEwen would not have been an option? Can you imagine it? Labor challenges the McEwen vote to the Court of Disputed Returns to seek a re-election, only to not contest the election. Ha!

  36. Bad behaviour is not the perogative of the major parties or indeed of politicians. By all means criticise individuals within parties (and I actively work to get rid of pollies who I don’t think are up to it, and indeed am doing so at the present time) but don’t draw the longer bow of condemning whole parties or the profession as a whole. (Was going to insert lawyer joke here and realised it would tar me with the same brush!)

    As for Ms Mirabella, she is well known for her own bullying tactics – not only referring to members of her own party as ‘terrorists’ but using parliamentary priviledge to attack people such as Andrew Demetriou. During the last election campaign, she responded to a question from her Labor opponent on a local issue by calling her ‘weak and gutless’ and accusing her of using ‘weasel words’. (I note also she has gone to the absolutely pointless effort of a speech in Parliament since the election to attack her Labor opponent further!)

    Years ago, there was a report in the Financial Review and on crikey that Ms Mirabella bit a fellow MP at a Canberra nightclub. Seems to have mysteriously vanished from the ether.

  37. zoom- couldn’t happen to a more deserving pollie than Sophie, but denying she said it made Neal look like a clumsy fool. Happiness will be mine the day they are both gone from public office.
    btw- who did sophie bite?? hope they had a tetanus shot.

  38. I thought I made it clear I thought Neal was being too smart by half.

    As I said, can’t find the details of bitegate. I know there was some altercation between two male MPs; I believe Soph intervened and one of them made a grab for her handbag so she bit him. I actually thought that was quite feisty of her.

    BUT she denied it in Parliament and the denial is now the only reference I can find. It doesn’t give details, just refers to an altercation and where it was reported.

    Anyway, her bullying of her opposite number is well and truly on the record. I notice that Brendan Nelson is opposed to ‘the ugly face of bullying’ and particularly when it applies to wives and mothers, so I expect the ALP candidate to receive an apology for Sophie’s slur any day now…not.

  41. GB @ 132

    “Peter do you agree with Brian Loughnane that Labor, in fact, said very little about petrol and grocery prices in the election campaign? ”

    Duttons reply – for those who have the sense to avoid the terror.

    “Thanks for your comments. What Mr Rudd did at the last election was to raise expectations in relation to petrol, grocery prices, housing affordability and general costs of living not just for families but also pensioners. Why were pensioners angry after the May budget? – because they had been led to believe Mr Rudd was going to make their lives much easier, and he basically delivered nothing new. Mr Rudd knew exactly what he was doing in lifting expectation, and in politics that can be a dangerous thing, especially if he had no intention or capacity to deliver. Thanks Peter

    Peter Dutton”

    Er ahem Peter that was not the question. 😛

  42. I then asked Mr Dutton do you agree with John Howard’s comment “that working families have never been better off” ?

    Er oops again – this one went through to the keeper. 😛

  43. Now the Queensland Libs are trying to get Brough up as Big Chief Pineapple:

    THE selection of former federal Liberal minister Mal Brough as president of a new Queensland conservative party will be the next test of the state’s Nationals and Liberal merger.

    Liberals are divided over the party to be established in Queensland, despite party members voting overwhelmingly in favour of the merger to create the Liberal National Party of Queensland.

    Former state Liberal president Bob Carroll said yesterday the party’s ratifying convention could dump the merger if the Nationals rejected Mr Brough.

    In a postal ballot, 86 per cent of 3000 Liberals voted for the merger, although 43 per cent of members failed to vote. Nationals members voted heavily in favour of the merger in a ballot in May.

    Modelled on similar lines to the Northern Territory’s Country Liberal Party, the new party will become the second-biggest conservative party federally, with more MPs than the Nationals.

    As dissident Liberals warned of a possible court challenge against the Queensland move, the Nationals were set to take over both the organisational and parliamentary wings of the new party.

    The Nationals will outnumber the Liberals by a 2-1 margin at ajoint party convention, giving Nationals president Bruce McIver the numbers against Mr Brough.

    Mr Carroll said the Nationals would dominate the party, making it more conservative and alienating voters the Coalition needed to woo to defeat Labor in southeast Queensland. “I can’t see us now winning seats in and around Brisbane,” he said.

    “These people are more likely to vote for the Greens than a party that lurches to the Right.”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23955586-5006786,00.html

  44. i must admit i had my first slight twinge of sympathy for Neal today–please note i said slight, i’ve been on the recieving end of that sort of intrusive hounding by the media in the past, to the extent of being chased into the ladies toilets by one over eager cameraman at an inquest, i could tell so many stories of having journos inviting themselves into my home via the backdoor and giving me sht when i’ve told them to get packing, my son turned the hose on one lot once.
    after being ordered to leave, one lot stuck stickers all over the cars in the driveway as they went, the stickers lifted the paint when they were peeled off, a journo pal who was having coffee with us at the time can attest to it–his car copped it too, some journo’s are like a school of pirahnas in a blood frenzy.

  45. As far as I know journalists are even further towards the scum on the bottom of the pond than politicians.

    Expect Neal’s public relations stocks to rise to dizzying heights after this miserable episode.

  46. Judy

    I agree, we have a judicial process that must be followed in all cases, just because the media thinks it is a good story that will sell newspapers or advertising does not mean people are not due the scrutiny of our judicial system.

    Take the case of Dennis Ferguson who has had his court case stayed because “a judge ruled he could not get a fair trial in Queensland”. The media have now traced him to his new home – further lessening any chance of conviction.

    🙁

  47. That Ben Fordham character from ACA is lower than low. He just slipped lower than Neal as far as I’m concerned, not by much, but lower.

  50. A reasonably good, although far too flattering article on the life and times of Alexander Downer today in the freeby edition of Crikey.

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