Newspoll: 55-45

Mumble reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead dropping from 59-41 to 55-45, with primary votes of 44 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent for Coalition, 10 per cent for Greens and 7 per cent others. More to follow.

Meanwhile, Alexander Downer confirms he will quit parliament to take up a job as United Nations special envoy to Cyprus. Mayo by-election to follow.

UPDATE (2/7/07): Today’s Australian provides further figures on standard of living expectations, which have plunged shockingly – “get worse” being up from 18 per cent to 43 per cent since December. While I’m here, a belated link to yesterday’s graphic.

UPDATE (3/7/07): Newspoll has released its quarterly aggregated poll which provides breakdowns by state, gender and age. It suggests the Rudd honeymoon effect has been especially strong in South Australia and in metropolitan areas, is fading quickest in Victoria, and did not further increase support for Labor in the 18-34 age group. Two of these four are consistent with the result of the Gippsland by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. most journos are a bunch of leeches who would cut their grandmother’s throat for a good story–and what the hell if it’s maybe not the truth, as long as it’s dramatic and sensational enough, trial by media is alive and well, if it wasnt using up William’s bandwidth i could tell you some curlers. A.C.A. was a dammed good respectable program once upon a time, how the mighty have fallen!

  3. hey Optimist, i’ve been very open about how Bob Whitington {senior Advertiser journo, dec.} became a trusted loyal friend of mine, he was my other dad and even now a couple of journos are good pals, they’ve proven over the years they would never abuse that friendship, i think they know more about my family and myself than anyone– well maybe other than major crime, others in the past have tried to insinuate themselves, our reaction is –well yeah right! i dont think it’s a coincidence that the couple we trust are also trusted to a large degree by SAPOL.

  4. The Sniggering Troll, i thought that take on lord lunchalot in Crikey today was hilarious.
    dissecting the candidates for Mayo and their chances is going to give us hours of fun for the weeks ahead lol, should we start a betting list??
    perhaps by the time its over the tip will bow out and the fun can begin again.

  5. Judy #203,
    I don’t know your background and so can’t really put most of that into context. I do, however have a good understanding of how loathsome most journos are when they prize a scoop or a sensational distortion over integrity, honesty and sensitivity to human suffering and the complexities of real life..
    I wonder how many coulda-been great journos have fallen into silent obscurity because they had the integrity to reject the leading principles of modern “journalism” – the ones who didn’t destroy people for a front page, who search for the truth rather than a plausible, publishable distortion of fact.
    I better slow down, this is getting my blood up.

  6. Did anyone see Hugh Mackay on teh 7.30 report tonight? I thought he was very good – outlined the risks and opportunities Rudd faced now on both climate change adn peak oil in a realistic and balanced way. He used the response to the SEQ drought to illustrate that governments can introduce tough measures against a crisis with success, provided people see that it is a genuine solution to a genuine problem.

    He implied that this Friday’s Garnaut Report draft will be quite critical. It is an issue peopel who voted for Rudd expct him to act on. Labor shouldn’t worry that some people will say its too tough – those people will never vote Labor anyway. But far more people who changed vote in 2007 will be wanting Labor to act. It should be interesting.

  11. Harry “Snapper” Organs @ 32 (Fran’s our man thread) –

    The LNP’s playing of populist politics is just playing with death of many species, maybe our own. The planet will survive, probably, but we may not.

    I long ago concluded that we humans lack the humanity to save ourselves by undoing the damage we inflict on the living planet. That in the end avarice/greed, ignorance and sheer bloody minded stupidity will win out.

    Increasingly I’m coming to believe this will be a good thing.

    I’ve never been much troubled by the certainty of my eventual demise, just disappointed I’d never know how the human story pans out. Seems I just might live long enough to find out after all. 😐

  12. O.K. takes deep breath and thanks again to Mayoferal for pointing out I was making an edjeet of myself, very kindly, on the other thread.
    Seriously, I’d suggest reading the articles by Brian at Larvartus Prodeo. I’ve needed to go back to them a number of times to really get my head around what’s happening, because it’s so very, very bad. I hadn’t realised just how bad it is. I mean I knew it was bad. Just not that bad.
    We can take the path of deciding we’re a rotten species, as Mayoferal is suggesting. And it’s very tempting to do so, given the appalling series of deaths that have occurred over the past few weeks, Kreist, toddlers weighing the same as newborns, starved to death in a house where neither their mother or father notices at all?

  13. MayoFeral @ H.S.O., call it fanciful if you will but i’ve a great belief in the law of karma, the human race has uncaringly gone full out to just about destroy our beautiful planet and i believe we have to back pedal and reverse quick smart to try and undo some of our vandalism, we have a very slim chance to correct things and heal the earth, i listen to the coalition take their anti climate change stance in despair,it’s pure populism and they dont seem to realise just what they’re doing–or care, all for a handful of votes that still won’t get them into government, anything to play spoiler against the government policies, a bit like fiddling while Rome burns,i fear for my grandies and their future or lack of it, the scales have to balance and we have to answer for what wer’e doing.

  14. Hello Judy, do please go and have a look at what Brian has taken a good deal of time and effort to compile. It will take some time to get your head around it. It certainly did mine.
    If any of the human species are to survive, it’s going to be nasty.
    It’s why I put forward the idea that perhaps global climate change may be beyond the usual ideas about the political divides.

  17. Oh Dear, now floor crossing Barnaby will be able to vote in the Liberal Leadership votes as well. What a circus this Pineapple Party will become!

    Mr Truss insisted the federal Coalition arrangements would change little with the new party, as Liberal and Nationals MPs from Queensland would continue to sit in their partyrooms, and not as a separate party.

    “What will happen is that the party will be the state wing of the federal parties,” Mr Truss said.

    “Not much will be changing in Canberra.”

    However, Queensland Nationals senator Barnaby Joyce said the new entity would be constitutionally a division of the federal Liberal Party at the same time it was affiliated with the federal Nationals. “There’s nothing to stop me going into the Liberal partyroom and voting on who is going to be the Liberal leader,” Senator Joyce said.

    “Under the party constitution, MPs can choose whichever partyroom they want to sit in. People could chop and change between partyrooms.”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23960612-5006786,00.html

  20. same old, same old bumbling Downer, i dont know whether to just sit back and watch his expected egotistical stuff up in Cyprus or feel sorry for whoever nominated him, i know Rudd endorsed the man but what else could he do without it looking like a bit of political spite?, all we can do is pray he doesnt start another civil war over there, hmmm they’ll have to gag him if this new consultency is to survive–but then again he learnt french in one easy lesson {so he says} so i guess he’ll be able to spout his condescending platitudes in ten different languages by the end of the year for them.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23960619-5013871,00.html

  21. The Fiberals Greg Hunt in full flight and showing his newfound economic credentials again.

    [Again, if total tax on petrol remains the same, you don’t have a climate change policy. You have “re-labelling.” That said, later in the article he seems to put more faith in price signals (for electricity and hybrid cars) but let’s face it by this point it is very confusing what he wants. And the call for innovation reads like a back-door industry assistance program. Actually, if you ask me, the Opposition wants to be “re-labelled” as environmentally friendly; hence the title ‘Let’s go Green.’ He may have well just said kombya.]

    http://economics.com.au/?p=1609

  22. Steve, i doubt ANY of the coalition know just what stance to take on anything, from Nelson down they’re running around like a gaggle of headless chooks, we have to check each morning to find out just what the policy of the day is, it’d be good though if they’d check with each other first so at least they sing in unison.
    each morning Nelson sticks a pin in the willwe/wontwe graph on his desk, Turnbull cant drag himself from his mirror {telling himself how wonderful he is} Costello tosses a coin each morning to see if he’ll go or stay today –and whether the weather is right for the odd game of golf, Bishop obviously layers the warpaint on thick and practises the bitchy smile and hypnotic stare, Abbott is on his knees wearing his hair shirt and asking the pope why his prayers to save them all hav’nt been answered, saying that though, to give this unsavoury mob their due, Downer has finally come clean on the worse kept secret in parliament and is bowing out, Howard certainly made sure with his egotistical hubris that when he left “his party” would find it hard to survive without him, but then again, after each dictater gets dethroned the place is in turmoil till water finds it’s own level so i guess they may come good—eventually!!

  24. Possum
    you’re not wishing us back to pre the last election are you???

    Steve- you are in the wrong place. The Kumbaya crowd are we Obama supporters over on the US election thread.

  25. Maybe Rudd will do like he did with Gippsland, a long campaign offering plenty of opportunity for Call me Brenda to squander funds?

    Re Andrew Bolt, he is not honest: one instance I saw he changed the text of a blog, initially he said “Spin: Rudd promises no Chinese will guard the torch. Fact: Olympic official . . . Chinese will guard the torch” This later got changed when what Rudd said was shown to be fact not spin!

  27. Hilarious!

    How stupid can the Daily Telegraph go? From today’s on-line edition:

    THE Iguanas bar affair has taken dramatic new twists today: John Della Bosca has been interviewed by police for four hours, a TV reporter has handed police a tape of an angry Belinda Neal and a key combatant of Ms Neal whom Ms Neal said would give birth to a demon has had a baby.
    …
    In a.. twist to the Belinda Neal side of the saga, Liberal backbencher and Belinda Neal combatant Sophie Mirabella has had her baby – and it is not a demon.

  28. Bushfire Bill,
    did the Tele reveal what sort of testing was employed to determine the non-demon status of baby Mirabella?

  30. “Did the Tele reveal what sort of testing was employed to determine the non-demon status of baby Mirabella?”

    Now that you mention it, no they didn’t.

    That quote should have read,

    In a.. twist to the Belinda Neal side of the saga, Liberal backbencher and Belinda Neal combatant Sophie Mirabella has had her baby – and it does not appear to be a demon.

    Seeing as Benny is coming soon, could we perhaps get him to cast a Papal eye over said child and settle this once and for all?

    On another odious page of the Tele, Pies has this to say:

    WHAT is it with Labor politicians and the law? Why is it that, when given the choice of co-operating with law authorities during an investigation or stonewalling, their default position is to stonewall?
    …
    The late and unlamented Justice Murphy ducked and weaved his way through two trials, two senate select committees and a judicial commission before dying before a decision could be delivered.
    …
    Lawrence, when her memory didn’t fail her, was in a state of denial and had to be brought before a fruitless royal commission at which she was unable to recall almost anything.
    …
    Further, though Iemma made it clear that he wanted Della Bosca to co-operate fully with the investigating police, Della Bosca’s co-operation was limited to the strictest interpretation of the law.

    That’s fine, of course. It’s his legal right. But as Iemma has made plain – and as the public expects – politicians and public servants are generally held to higher standards of conduct than ordinary folk.

    That may be tough, but it goes with the white cars, the globe-trotting junkets, leisurely work practices and the generous superannuation payouts. It’s part of the deal.
    …
    The issue is no longer a case of alleged bullying and threats to jobs and operating licences, it is about what has taken place since.

    Possible crimes which the police might look at include misconduct by a public officer, attempt to pervert the course of justice, and a series of offences which fall under Section 7 of the Crimes Act, including (315) hindering investigation, (315a) threatening or intimidating victims or witnesses, and (320) extended meaning of “giving evidence” which refers to the production of anything to be used as evidence.
    …
    Murphy didn’t get it, nor did Lawrence, and nor do Neal and Della Bosca.

    As I recall, Murphy was acquitted on appeal, Lawrence was charged and acquitted of perjury, and Belinda Neal and Della Bosca have merely exercised their right not to be formally interviewed by police, a right which is absolute and cannot have any implications deduced from it in any legal sense. That’s three instances, THREE in 25 years, all of which have not involved one iota of proven criminal conduct, two of them failing to prove criminal conduct. Yet Pies dismisses all of this by writiing “Whaty is it with Labor politicians and the law?” and putting more onus on politicians to just cave in and admit guilt (even, it seems, if there is none) with the lazy sentence, “It’s part of the deal.”

    I also remember one certain Alexander Downer forgetting umpteen occasions on which he failed to perform his duty as foreign Minister by forgetting clear advice he had received that AWB was rorting the OFF scheme.

    What about Lexy, Pies? Didn’t he do exactly the same thing you’re accusing Neal and Della Bosca (as well as Murphy and Lawrence) of doing?

  31. Pies really is a low act, sure porky Lionel Murphy QC died of untreatable cancer to avoid your forensic scrutiny. 🙁

  32. “Lionel Murphy is one of the few judges of the High Court of Australia who has left his mark on the history of the country. He has argued with immense learning and great passion for trial by jury, the rights of the Aborigines, the liberties of the individual against the State, the Corporations and the Churches, and the rights of the Commonwealth against the States. Lionel Murphy is a child of the Enlightenment. He has devoted his public life to the abolition of ignorance, superstition and tyranny. He belongs to the great tradition of those who believe human beings had the capacity to abolish every form of domination, of class over class, parent over child, man over woman, woman over man, of race over race, and spiritual bully over sceptics and agnostics. All his life he has had an eye for the humbugs and the moralisers. Perhaps that is why the conservatives have never felt comfortable with him. He is one of those human beings who want all human beings to have not only life, liberty and the opportunity to pursue happiness: he wants all human beings to have life and have it more abundantly. These judgments are a testimony to his faith and his courage. The victims and the oppressed will read them as the words of a man who gave them hope.”

    Prof. Manning Clark AC

  34. Bushfire Bill @ 230 –

    Seeing as Benny is coming soon, could we perhaps get him to cast a Papal eye over said child and settle this once and for all?

    Yes please! I want at least a Cardinal to certify the child’s state before I believe it isn’t spiritually tainted by the bile from its mother’s tongue. And an independent chief godbotherer at that.

    Mind you it’s probably all a moot point. What little I know of Mirabella I gained here. Even if only half is true then the child is unlikely to turn out to be the well rounded, caring individual most parents would wish for. I suspect that is what Neal was getting out, rather than forecasting possession from the netherworld.

  37. Heard from Belinda Neal’s police interview

    Belinda Neal: Do you know who I am!!
    Police 1: Yeap, inmate 94621 of cell 4

  41. Actually Sophie had a Girl.

    [She was warned she’d give birth to a “demon”, but Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella says she feels blessed by her first child, a daughter.

    Named after her two grandmothers, Alexandra Mary Mirabella arrived at 10am (AEST) Thursday by caesarean section at the Freemasons Hospital in Melbourne, weighing 9lbs 6ozs.]

    Well 3×6 does equal 9, plus the extra 6 ounces is rather ominous :-0)

    http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=495232

  42. If Kevin Rudd wants to do something tough, populist, and economically responsible all at the same time, he could do worse than withdraw federal clearance of Gunns pulp mill. Gunns still haven’t got finance approved. See

    http://news.smh.com.au/business/gunns-negotiating-bank-syndicate-on-mill-20080703-30yu.html

    This story is just silly. Gunns have asked for and been granted a six month extension to arrange finance. No names of potential financiers are given. ANZ withdrew in May, and obviously nobody has agreed terms since. The finance market is very tight now (heard of the “credit crunch”?) and so there must be real doubt they will get the money. Normally these deals are done behind closed doors, so that people don’t give their bargaining positions away. Gunns must be desperate to make this sort of announcement, which telegraphs to any potential investor that they have them over a barrell and can charge Gunns as high an interest rate as they like.

    As I have said before on previous posts, serious economists like Peter Brain have concluded that this thing is a net loser for the Tasmanian economy. It will destroy more jobs in the wine, tourism and fishing industries than it is likely to create. Killing this turkey now will mean less pain and cash wasted in the long run. If we must pork barrell in Tasmania, give them some wind farms.

  45. ruawake @ 238 –

    Glen Milne at the Walkley Awards – Please anyone Do you know who I am

    Yes, waiter, get me another beer and don’t have one yourself. You’re pi**ed enough already!

  46. [Well 3×6 does equal 9, plus the extra 6 ounces is rather ominous :-0)]

    …and it had to be CUT out of her! IT WAS A DEMON!!!!

  48. Has anyone had a look at Possum’s update on the quarterly Newspoll? Possum asks the question why the female demographic might be a bit soft for Labor. I couldn’t think of any particular reason, can anyone else?

  49. Lionel Murphy is one of the few judges of the High Court of Australia who has left his mark on the history of the country. He has argued with immense learning and great passion for… the liberties of the individual against the State,

    Ya think Piers would be grateful for that at least. Guess he just doesn’t have the generosity in him to acknowledge an opponent’s good work.

    •••••••••••••••••••

    And, folks, I loathe Sophie Mirabella as much as anybody on this site, but can we leave her child and mothering out of it? Your comments on this subject are just plain ugly and do you no credit.

  50. Ruawake,

    Yes Manning Clark hardly an objective source. Murphy was such a great man that the records had to be sealed for 50 years by special legislation.

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