Hot on the heels of a New South Wales state Newspoll headlined 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour (but which Antony Green says should have been 54-46), the Sun-Herald today carries an even worse result for Labor from Taverner. This has the Coalition surging to a 56-44 lead after trailing 51-49 in February. No sample size is given, but the February survey was 550. On the primary vote, Labor has dropped from 39 per cent to a disastrous 29 per cent, with the Coalition up from 37 per cent to 46 per cent (it’s possible the undecided have not been distributed). Hats off to Fairfax’s Lisa Carty for having noted Antony’s recent sermon on the increased importance of the primary vote under optional preferential voting. The accompanying article speaks of a looming leadership change, with Labor MPs “hardening in their resolve that Mr Iemma must be sacrificed to give them a chance of holding on to government in 2011”.
UPDATE: A scanned copy of the full results courtesy of James J in comments. The sample was 602; the undecided had indeed not been distributed, but there were only 3 per cent of them. Also featured are questions on privatisation, the Labor leadership and the Belinda Neal episode.
EC,
They could always subscribe to PB which has all the benefits and none of the disadvantages of investing in Australian grown product.
Newspoll thread up.
The 1996 and 2004 federal polls in NSW prehaps show what a Labor defeat would look like: the once solid Labor Sydney fringe must eventually go, perhaps the old middle-class once solid Liberal inner suburban pockets. Labor might hold Strathfield as they did Ashfield in 1988. If Labor’s woes are mostly Sydney driven the remaining rural seats might hold on.
For everyone talking about swings in seats please include the exhausted preference system we have here. This magnifies the margins somewhat more than what we are used to thinking about. so a 6% swing would not be out of the question (this shows how useless Peter Debnam actually was).
Further, please also factor in the Local elections here in September. Unfortunately for a lot of the hard working Labor councilors, people are likely to show their displeasure there. I for one am looking at the results in September as a barometer for State Labor (not a good indication but still one).
Its good to see that the Iemma government has adopted a multi-pronged strategy to earn defeat, in case financial mismanagement and the whiff of roast Iguana isn’t enough. How about the appallingly draconian police powers to stop people “causing annoyance” at Youth Brainwashing Day? As if its bad enough that Iemma, a Catholic, has allocated over $50 million of taxpayers money to support an event solely promoting a single religeon (his own), he now wants powers to stop anyone protesting about it? So much for democracy. I am disturbingly reminded of growing up in Bjelke-Petersen era Queensland.
Quite apart from being financially unsound, and ethically questionable, this decision also looks to be massively unpopular. There is a poll in the SMH about the new powers. 90% of voters are against them:
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/national/voted.html
When you consider that about 27% of the population are Catholic, that suggests that even a majority of Catholics (70%) are against these powers.
Watkin’s was on the radio this morning pledging full support for Comrade Iemma. once again – a sure sigh of that Premmie Iemmie is gone for all money. However I suppose they will wait for ould red socks and the other paedophile protectors to depart our shores (after awarding Iemma an Order of Christ in gratitude for him banning rude t-shirts) before a organising a latter day Night of Long Knives.
Personally I can’t wait to see a video of Costa (a country member) being dragged from his bed before being dispatched.
I think there will be some nasty shocks next time for Labor. I predict these outer-Sydney marginal ALP seats will swing to the Libs:
Camden, The Entrance, Gosford, Heathcote, Londonderry, Menai, Miranda, Riverstone, Wollondilly, and Wyong.
In Sydney, the Libs will narrowly win Coogee off Labor.
I expect Drummoyne to stay ALP, but only just. You just can’t convince some people how bad the current ALP government is! Strathfield will stay ALP.
The biggest shock of election night 2011 will be the defeat of John Watkins in Ryde. I understand that the same people who threw out John Howard have had an absolute gutful of Watkins. I also think the ALP vote in Rockdale will collapse and Frank Sartor will narrowly lose to his Liberal challenger (what a joyous event that will be!).
Outside of Sydney, the Nats will gain Dubbo, although Steve Whan is popular in Monaro, so that one could be an interesting contest. If the Nats primary vote rises, it will gain Tamworth.
I also predict a narrow Nats victory in Bathurst, after a collapse in the ALP vote.
There may also be some other pleasant surprises. You can expect some independents to win safe Labor seats particularly in the Hunter. I’d say that Verity Firth and Carmel Tebbutt are gone-skis in Balmain and Marrickville, but only if the Libs stitch up a preference deal with the Greens (Greens to win both seats).
Keep an eye on Blue Mountains which could be a shock Libs gain as well.
I’m sure there are others that I’ve left out.
Overall, whether Iemma, Watkins or someone else is leader, the ALP is finished this time in NSW. We’ve had enough and won’t reward their corruption and incompetence again.
So Braz you are saying the Lib/Nats will pick up 17-18 seats – perhaps more. You seem to forget just how horrible the NSW Libs are. People remember how the Libs and Nats devastated services, education transport and child welfare last time and there were only a few right wing loonies as ministers. Plus they will want to sell off everything not actually nailed down which is not a popular idea in all those swinging seats you mention.
Don’t forget that in 2007 when the NSW ALP was just as on the nose as they are now they still managed to spank the Libs. I can see the GRNs and good Independents doing very well in both houses – at the expense of a coalition outright victory.
Perhaps if we get a situation where we have both houses “hung” the two major parties will get together to try to eliminate the minor parties a la Tasmania.
Anyway it will be interesting to see what happens on 13th September with the LGA elections. I am sure that the ALP will lose control of a lot of councils but who to – if they go LIb/Nat your prediction may hold but if a lot of real inds get up March 2011 will be fascinating.
So, it really seems you New South Welshies are left with a clear choice between the slow moving train wreck that is Morris Iemma or the party more and more controlled by the right reverend David Clarke.
Personally, I’d choose to move to Victoria.
Grant
LOL
though ive tried living in victoria twice ,i still cant get over the fact that it was the ideal place to film “on the beach”