Newspoll: 55-45

Mumble reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead dropping from 59-41 to 55-45, with primary votes of 44 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent for Coalition, 10 per cent for Greens and 7 per cent others. More to follow.

Meanwhile, Alexander Downer confirms he will quit parliament to take up a job as United Nations special envoy to Cyprus. Mayo by-election to follow.

UPDATE (2/7/07): Today’s Australian provides further figures on standard of living expectations, which have plunged shockingly – “get worse” being up from 18 per cent to 43 per cent since December. While I’m here, a belated link to yesterday’s graphic.

UPDATE (3/7/07): Newspoll has released its quarterly aggregated poll which provides breakdowns by state, gender and age. It suggests the Rudd honeymoon effect has been especially strong in South Australia and in metropolitan areas, is fading quickest in Victoria, and did not further increase support for Labor in the 18-34 age group. Two of these four are consistent with the result of the Gippsland by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Sorry for the delay in my posts.

    Gary #597, Which countries have an emissions trading scheme.

    Gary #598, If I were Chinese I would be praying for democracy and hand up from poverty. I would also be more inclined to examine the science behind global warming since the world’s temp hasn’t increased since 1998.

    Dario, I do not believe in AGW.

    Fulvio all good proverbs.

  2. The issue with Global Warming is that when you have irrefutable proof it is too late. Final verification is the actual seeing of the thing happen One can argue until doomsday about whether the final “t” is crossed and whether glorious democracy has been respected and whether everyone has had heir say. Yet democracy would mean nothing in such a dead world.

    In life there are many things we do without the very final proof – there is such a thing as conviction. With the really big things it is usually the same.

    Taking the debate beyond a certain point is just another strategy of blocking any attempt to either stop the effects of GW or at least mitigating it.

  8. J of M, I have just read that Colless piece and I clearly, confidently and strongly disagree with every point made.

    Look, I think those News Journos are quite dillusional. Maybe be they should all get together, lock themselves up in a room and bang each other until they come to their senses and accept the fact that we had a change in government on 24/11/07.

  12. Does anyone have any idea what Brendan is doing with his rantings about the ‘Children in art’ debate. Who was the Guru who told him that he needs to sound strong and definite all the time, he sounds increasingly like a whinger. The news last night absolutely skinned him. There was the 11 years old saying that it was her favourite photo and then Brendan going bolistic sounding very strong but coming across as wierd.
    For a moment I thought that the Libs were doing OK but they are just a complete joke. They only have one stick in the golf bag.

  13. Brenda is in danger of outwedging himself, this short term politics only works for so long! The only thing he’s had going for him lately is petrol prices, and the assistance of the media, which is still largely pro Liberal Party.

  15. Re The Australian and its never-ending series of anti-Labor pieces, I sent the following letter today:

    ‘The way in which Liberal supporters are reacting to the election of Kevin Rudd in the pages of The Australian has instructive parallels with their reaction to the election of Steve Bracks in 1999. Following that election, letters predicting gloom and doom filled the press. Meanwhile, the Victorian Labor Government just got on with implementing its policies, the ones it supposedly did not have: more police, more nurses, more doctors, more teachers, smaller classes, massive capital investment in schools, the Victorian Institute of Teaching (since copied in NSW and WA), reform of the Legislative Council, constitutional protection of the auditor-general, etc. Amazingly, the Liberals countered with the claim that Labor didn’t actually do anything, while the voters saw the results every day. The Liberals descended into chaotic irrelevance, and the Victorian people re-elected Labor in two historic landslides. Kevin Rudd will win the next election with an increased majority.

    ‘Yours sincerely,
    Chris Curtis

    ‘Emailed to letters@theaustralian.com.au
    As Party like it’s 1999’

  19. It’s increasingly looking like Labor won’t contest Mayo. The Libs are goading them to do so. The most interesting thing looks like the fairly bitter Lib preselection battle, with the rising star 31 yo Rodent staffer being the favourite. He was a big fan of Serfchoices which is now hanging around his neck like a millstone, a fact that his competitors are leaking to the press endlessly in SA.

    OPPOSITION Leader Brendan Nelson has lashed out at the Labor Party for considering not running a candidate at the Mayo by-election.

    The ALP is yet to decide formally whether to run a candidate, citing cost, but party figures are also worried about the potential to lose votes after last month’s poor result in the Gippsland by-election.

    Anger over plan to ignore Mayo
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23985333-2682,00.html

  21. Here’s the one you’ve been waiting to see JoM. Next stop will be Bolta’s blog.

    THE science tells us that continued high levels of carbon pollution have led to global warming and if the world continues on a business-as-usual trajectory the consequences for us all will be significant. The economics tells us that the cost of responsible action is much less than if we as a planet fail to act on climate change now. The longer we delay, the higher the cost.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23984420-7583,00.html

  22. Thanks Steve. Of course Rudd agrees with Garnaut he commisioned the report.

    Now that the coalition no longer controls the Senate how far will the ETS go since the Greens, Xenephon and Fielding hold the balance of power?

  24. Thanks, Gary. My publication rate is about 5 per cent, so I’m not even crossing my fingers, given I actually had one in last week.

  25. Steve, Fielding wants a 10c cut in petrol tax

    Doesn’t seem likely he will let the ETS through with transport included, unless some of the tax cuts can be used in place of that cut?

  28. Now that I know you are a CC denier John I guess any action on this front, taken by anyone, is a waste of time and effort in your opinion.
    I like how you “write off” Murdoch as a liar and opportunist. He couldn’t be sincere and a believer could he? How could anyone believe such crap sprouted by a majority of scientists. They’re all opportunists and liars aren’t they John? They have so much to gain by making all of this up.

  29. Unfortunately cabinet confidentially prevents us knowing whether Mr Nelson and Mr Downer made similar remarks when the Howard government wimped six out of six by-elections in Labor held seats during 11 years of government. Seven out of seven if you include the Newcastle supplementary election.

    Some nice Mayo graphs up at http://www.abc.net.au/elections

  30. Antony

    That’s quite amazing. Six out of six no-shows if they were going to lose. I’m not sure what the rationale for running a candidate in a Federal election but not in a by-election is.

    There is one candidate who would probably win in Mayo if she ran, either as Labor, Democrat or Independent and that’s NSD. They love her in the Hills. She’s probably too busy helping hubby and Dolly set up Bespoke Solutions or whatever it’s called.

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