Newspoll: 55-45

Mumble reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead dropping from 59-41 to 55-45, with primary votes of 44 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent for Coalition, 10 per cent for Greens and 7 per cent others. More to follow.

Meanwhile, Alexander Downer confirms he will quit parliament to take up a job as United Nations special envoy to Cyprus. Mayo by-election to follow.

UPDATE (2/7/07): Today’s Australian provides further figures on standard of living expectations, which have plunged shockingly – “get worse” being up from 18 per cent to 43 per cent since December. While I’m here, a belated link to yesterday’s graphic.

UPDATE (3/7/07): Newspoll has released its quarterly aggregated poll which provides breakdowns by state, gender and age. It suggests the Rudd honeymoon effect has been especially strong in South Australia and in metropolitan areas, is fading quickest in Victoria, and did not further increase support for Labor in the 18-34 age group. Two of these four are consistent with the result of the Gippsland by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Diogenes @ 89 –

    I know this won’t really come to anything but we can dream…

    Indeed we can, and not totally without hope. The ICC is to rule within a year or so on whether it will try cases based on the Nuremberg Charter. I’m not holding my breath, but even if they duck the issues now there’s always the possibility of a negative ruling being overturned in the future. War crimes don’t have a statue of limitation and many of the main players are relatively young. Let them sweat!

    Our Crimes Act also applies. Unfortunately, the AFP can only proceed with authorisation from the A-G, and I doubt that McClelland is interested. I was hoping that Mike Kelly would get the gig because his background suggests he might be. But as a newbie it was always going to be a long shot. Anyway, pollies tend to look after their own.

  2. Neal’s not going to resign her seat. Does she strike you as the type of person to give in to pressure? It is more likely she’ll be booted from the ALP (and the grounds for that might not have to do with any charges directly, but not responding to police inquiries quick enough).

    The allegation of her spitting at a staff member is probably worse then yelling and screaming at them. Spitting is frown upon seriously. Just look at the footy leagues, you get the same punishment for spitting as for striking.

  3. Eddy, no one cares about the unlovely Della Boscas. For once, I agree with Marky iterated, there are more important things to consider, particularly as they play out over time.

  4. 108 I won’t lose a wink of sleep either way, ESJ. I’ve never been a fan of people behaving badly from either side of politics.

  5. Rudd is likely to disendorse Neal sooner or later, probably well before the next election. Kev and Julia will take tough action if they consider Iguanagate is hurting the government.
    Iemma on the other hand is as weak as piss, he’s looking for any excuse to reinstate Della Bosca as a minister.

  6. BS Fairman #107

    I think this is Neal’s problem. If she didn’t spit or carry on in an inappropriate manner then she would surely be defending her reputation. If she is being victimised then she has been clearly defamed and logic suggets she would be barrelling into the media at a million miles an hour.

    I can’t see her wanting to stay as an MP for much longer. Her prospects are now shot so why bother? Nobody is supporting her. And why would she continue to expose herself and her family to the torment of recent weeks. Especially the impact it may be having on her children. Then again politicians are stubborn creatures.

    Ironically the ALP may prefer her to stay in parliament and deny the Liberals a certain by-election victory. Mind you this would help Brendan Nelson in his cause to stay on as opposition leader. Every cloud and its silver lining?

  7. Gary Bruce
    Regarding Councils – they provide many services that most people are very thankful for – and more than “roads, rates & rubbish”, in many cases providing the programs and activities that state governments don’t or wont. I wont go into the many and various items they do deal with (or how underfunded they have been given what they are expected to do).

    However, what I was pointing to was that Councils are a training ground for many local politicians, working through local governance issues (including understanding the basis of government and how to manage large budgets and organisations), working as a public official and dealing with the local electorate, as much as providing a good platform for getting known around your locality. If this training ground is effectively removed for one of the major parties it reduces the pool of talent from which they can draw in the future. While I’m sure that the major parties can find good candidates outside of this realm, I question the wisdom of this approach in terms of local MP’s being in touch with their local electorate – unless you simply ascribe to the notion that an MP is just a cypher for a party and it is irrelevant what their own position is.

  8. William, back at 77, what do you think is the significance? If you’re prepared to say, that is. Might be a getting a bit ahead of myself here, but if you’re willing to say something, we’ll be all ears.

  9. ESJ, why the infatuation with the Neal saga? It’s obvious Joe Public doesn’t give a rats, so why bother? Talk about something that sticks, like the bottom line and petrol prices.

  10. There was this guy I used to know at a local footy club. Let’s call him E.

    He’d go up to player A after a game and say something like “I’ve just been talking to B and he’s been saying your a full of BS”. None of this true of course.

    He’d then go up to B and say ‘ You should hear what A’s been saying about your wife”. Again totally untrue.

    E would let them both stew for a while and then contrive to manoeuvre them close to each other. Then he’d ask B something about his wife.

    Of course B would immediately turn on A and it would be on for young an old.

    Meanwhile E would step back a safe distance and laugh his malicious head off.

    Sound familiar?

  11. I am still stunned and shocked that according to the twisted world of Queensland conservative politics in Queensland, my abstaining to vote for them in elections is construed as ‘overwhelming support’ for them. That is what the spin from both the National and Liberal Parties implies.

    If these clowns think that people abstaining from voting is overwhelming support then God help us if they ever get anywhere near running this state. The truth is that we now have a weak forced merger without overwhelming support from the grassroots of either party. It is an inherent weakness that will haunt the Pineapple Party for ever.

    I’m sure that when Queensland voters show their overwhelming support for them by abstaining to vote for them they will consider they have formed a very successful marriage. They are not fit for Opposition, let alone government.

    “The overwhelming support for the merger demonstrated by rank and file members of both parties renders any misgivings some powerbrokers may retain as merely academic.”

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23953459-3102,00.html

  12. So lets get this straight. In a room of 100 people, 48 vote for a merger and 52 vote against or abstain. The result according to Brough and the Courier Mail is ‘overwhelming support’. At that rate 8 seats in an 89 seat parliament is far more of a show of ‘overwhelming support’ for the Queensland Liberals by the voting public than I had ever imagined.

  13. 115 Stewart J – I’m aware of what councils do and am happy for them to remain. I just don’t care if party polics is involved or not and don’t care who runs them. Interest in politics for me starts at the state level and moves up. I wonder how many of our state and federal reps started at council level. Now, I don’t know and could be proven wrong but I wouldn’t think it is a majority.

  14. 122 Gary Bruce
    You’d be quite correct that many are not now coming through this way. Instead they are tending to be either high profile candidates of some kind or more worryingly are coming through a party machine. This is the new political class being talked about. The worrying aspect for me is that if there are limited numbers of potential new candidates coming through local Councils, and in increase in “political class” or high flyers, then we face rapidly losing the local representation angle of lower house MP’s, as well as a ‘coal-face’ element that is a requirement of being on Council.

    Kingsford Smith as a seat is the perfect case – a number of local Councillors were vying for that seat and Carr’s seat of Maroubra. Maroubra went to one (Michael Daley) but Kingsford Smith has went to Garrett. Now as to whether which would have been better I wont say, but there is a loss of “local” representation, with the member still living in the Southern Highlands and appearing in the area for elections and photo-ops. Daley, although he is clearly not my cup of tea, is local and is more readily able to represent the population of Maroubra.

  15. Daniel 117

    I don’t think it is just ESJ who is interested in the Neal/Dellabosca incident. I would describe myself as pro-Labor yet am quite unhappy with it. It was a blatant abuse of power, and if others were coerced into signing false statutory declarations, if proven, that is an offence. Just the fact that they promised to cooperate fully with police and refused to be interviewed is misleading parliament. Under the Westminister system that is grounds for dismissal. If we complain about Howard not enforcing codes of conduct but don’t do it either then Rudd Labor will immediately lose any sense of moral credibility.

    I think this has already hurt Labor federally, and it needs to be resolved quickly to end the damage. We are just about to see the budget tax cuts kick in which should improve Labor’s standing in the electorate. If Neal is a distraction from that she is politically a severe liability. And the opposition will keep asking questions until there is a clear resolution. This whole stupid thing is just giving Nelson oxygen, after Rudd and Swan had decisively defeated him in the budget sittings. I agree the original Iguana incident was not that bad, but as usual, the denial is worse than the incident itself.

  16. Socrates, I agree with your first paragraph but think you’re overstating the impact on Labor in the electorate in states other than NSW (you could be right with NSW).
    The Neal thing is hardly being reported here in Vic now. You really have to look hard to find it or watch ACA.

  17. Socrates.

    Misleading parliament is not grounds for dismissal, it may be grounds for booting a minister to the backbench but not a backbencher.

    The only grounds for a member losing their seat is a criminal conviction that has a penalty of greater than 12 months in prison.

  18. They’re lining up for Dolly’s job. And Labor may not even contest it after the Gippsland thrashing.

    Labor is yet to decide if it will contest the subsequent by-election after its bruising defeat in Gippsland last weekend and fears it would not improve on its current vote.

    Five contenders for Downer’s plum seat of Mayo
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23956253-5006301,00.html

    FWIW I think the Neal and della Bosca are a disgrace. They have lied, bullied, abused and cheated while abusing their power. That’s the type of thuggish born-to-rule crap we hated about the Rodent so they should be told to leave the Labor Party. And then resign if the police can charge them.

  19. 129 Diogenes – regarding Mayo and Labor I think that is fair enough. Why give the opposition another chance to crow? Labor has no hope of winning anyway.
    As far as Neal and JDB is concerned your comments suggest the matter has been decided. IF what you say is true (and it appears to be) then I agree with you but let it all run its course first.

  20. Gary

    I doubt the Libs would get a swing in Mayo. Downer bucked the trend for a long time and was quite popular (dunno why). Now that he’s gone, if the Libs don’t get a very high quality candidate they could suffer a decent swing against them. Obviously Labor would also need a good candidate with a profile. Labor certainly won’t win but a swing to them might negate Gippsland.

    I gather della Bosca is going to answer questions from the police but he can just sit there and say “Please see my written statement” while fulfilling his commitment to talk to them. It gets back to whether Party members should be judged as individuals who can act in their own best interests (and presumed innocent with no action taken unless they are found guilty) or whether they have a duty to the Party to act in it’s best interests. These things can drag on forever.

  21. ruawake – good post by you on the Dutton blog. He didn’t answer the question though did he? He even asked and answered his own question in his answer. ” Why were pensioners angry after the May budget?”

  22. Found this on the Federal Court’s Daily Court lists:

    FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA
    Victoria Registry

    Wednesday, 2 July 2008
    4:15 PM Judgment

    VID123/2008 ROB MITCHELL v FRAN BAILEY & ANOR

  23. 1. There’s no point in Labor wasting money on the Mayo byelection, leave it to the Liberals. Maybe there’s a strong local independent who could be drafted instead?
    2. McEwen? I wouldn’t be too optimistic about the decision going against Fran Bailey.
    3. Igunagate: Rudd should cut Neal loose!

  24. Agreed- BNeal should be sacked.
    As for Mayo – bet Labor doesn’t run. It would be intersting to see how the Greens do though.
    Either way it is wonderful news that Downeer is finally going. He is as culpable as Bush and Howard in the bloodshed of Iraq. Hope he rots. And yes Diogs – it will probably never happen, but bring on the War Crimes trials.

  25. I suspect that Rudd will have to take action against Neal sooner or later. All he can really do though is to get the National Executive to kick her out of the party, ensuring that she doesn’t get preselection for the next election.
    In legislative terms, this won’t impact the Government, but electorally……sheesh.
    I think that she’s already ensured that Jim Lloyd will return to Parliament if he wants to – nice goin Belinda.
    Even if the Iguana story went away tomorrow (not gonna happen), she still has the issue of misleading the Parliament to face over the “demon child” comments she denied making to Sophie Mirabella – that can’t be resolved until after the winter break.
    Ultimately, the legalities are only part of the issue – it’s the perception of abuse of power and stubborn arrogance.
    This feeds right into the “wall-to-wall Labor will be a nightmare” message that the Libs have pushed.
    Both Della Bosca and Neal deserve what they get – the sheer arrogance is breathtaking.

  26. Optimist – what did she say to Sophie? (not that I approve…).

    Neal is a thug and should be sacked. Hate it when politicians think they can act with impunity – reminds me of the whole of the front bench under Howard.

    ESJ- don’t support the death penalty -hope they rot in jail though. Guantanamo preferrably.

  27. Jen,
    in main committee Neal told Mirabella that “evil thoughts will make your child a demon.”
    Kind of amusing I suppose but when Mirabella complained and demanded Neal withdraw the remarks, Neal denied she made them. It was all recorded and she clearly said it – Neal’s denial could be interpreted as misleading (lying to) the Parliament.

  28. Iain Evans, who used to be Leader of the SA Lib Opposition, but is now a shadow minister for something obscure, has put his hand up for Mayo. His current electorate includes lots of Mayo. Looks like a brutal preselection. And Rann really doesn’t look too enthused about losing again, given his sliding popularity, so they may well not run a Labor candidate.

    Iain Evans joins five contenders for Downer’s seat of Mayo
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23956253-5006301,00.html

  29. I think that the whole Neal saga again goes to the issue of how candidates are selected for the ALP.
    Progressive makes the point that Colbran missed out in Herbert, but Neal got over the line in Robertson – Colbran was exactly the sort of person that should get preselection for Labor, Neal is exactly the sort of person who should be kept out!
    A serious, professional political outfit needs to recognis the value of a good hardworking member of the community and the positive impact they can have as a backbencher. Time and again, this idea is jettisoned by the ALP in favour of shoe-horning in a factional favourite against the wishes of local members (precisely what Belinda Neal tried to have happen in 2001, when she was pipped by Trish Moran).
    If Labor thinks that preselection process problems are no longer worth worrying about because they’re in Government, then they are being extremely short-sighted and dare i say it, arrogant.

  30. What exactly is the party membership of the South Australian Liberals? Ian Evans to stand for Mayo? The same old family names, over and over again. The Liberals in South Australia should be called the ‘Party of the Living Dead’ because they are like Vampires with a constant stream of the undead with the same old surnames. Does anyone ‘NEW’ ever get a chance and God Forbid if the candidate was a woman! What is even scarier is that Alexander has bred!

  31. I think it’s worth noting that (if I’m not mistaken) Belinda Neal was one of ten NSW ALP candidates at the 2007 election who were chosen exclusively by the National Executive – no input from branch members.
    Gotta wonder what the National Executive considers suitable qualities in a candidate.

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