Morgan: 58.5-41.5

This week’s Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s lead down to 58.5-41.5 from 63-37 last week, its weakest Morgan face-to-face showing since the election of the Rudd government. It seems Morgan also conducted a phone poll between June 4-9 which put the score at 56-44, compared with the government’s previous weakest result of 58-42 at the phone poll of May 7-11.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

256 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  1. Labor vs Liberal; Carlton vs Collingwood, they are both manifestations of the same tribal loyalties. I am not from NSW but I must admit I see the Della Bosca/Neal episode and the reactions posted here as another game where supporters and denigrators do so on the basis of the TEAM.
    Let’s get real there is smoke here and very smelly smoke indeed. The last thing we need are arrogant politicians expressing that arrogance in either their private or public lives.
    Apologists do nothing but encourage our politicians to more extreme behaviour. We have recent examples of the most heinous behaviour by politicians and we do not learn.
    Labor politicians are becoming arrogant to the extreme across the country and we continue to defend them.
    We get the politicians we deserve be careful you are not defending those who should not be defended because they wear your guernsey.

  2. Kevin Rudd has been soundly condemned by Nelson and others for putting forward a “poorly thought” out plan for a broader SE Asia body, similar to the EEC which they contend is rejected by SE Asia leaders.

    Not according to this report by the ABC.

    {Speaking after a meeting in Jakarta, ASEAN secretary general Surin Pitsuwan said he welcomed Mr Rudd’s vision for Asia and wanted ASEAN to become involved with it.

    “ASEAN has its central role – ASEAN is hoping – in the core of the evolution of many architectures in the region,” he said.

    “But essentially every member state in the region are looking forward to a firmer and more integrated framework of cooperation.”

    Mr Surin says the plan it is a natural next step for the region.}

    And Indonesia!

    {However, a spokesman for Indonesia’s foreign ministry said last week that Jakarta was “really keen” to examine the plan.}

  3. stuart # 35. My observation is that the ABC News Online, sometimes the News both TV and Radio, simply reproduce what has been reported elsewhere, virtually word for word. As I’ve said before, it may be due to resources, or laziness or mischief, but it makes for a sad state of affairs for the fourth estate and therefore, how the population is informed.
    Antony, it may well be that some of us are ill informed about how online news services operate. If it’s the case the online service is operated by the most junior and poorly paid, and Antonio has previously had some illuminating things to say about this, I’d argue that it probably needs to be experienced and well paid people who provide this service, particularly if radio and TV news is relying on them as a front line “Triage” for filtering and focus. I hope I’ve understood this correctly?

  4. [stuart # 35. My observation is that the ABC News Online, sometimes the News both TV and Radio, simply reproduce what has been reported elsewhere, virtually word for word. As I’ve said before, it may be due to resources, or laziness or mischief, but it makes for a sad state of affairs for the fourth estate and therefore, how the population is informed.]

    From the ABC News Website.

    [This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced.]

    Most likely, they’re just taking what’s off the wire services and just repotising it holus bolus, along with scripts from Radio News etc.

    In the Olden Days it was known as “Rip n’ Read.

  5. colin # 51. While I’m from Victoria, and therefore not as across the functioning of the N.S.W. gov’t as I might be, they certainly look and sound to me like a very dysfunctional mob, and that’s taking into account my whinging about the fourth estate.
    Tribes notwithstanding, and I’ve been fairly upfront about my persuasions, but if a gov’t is not performing, or is corrupt, or incompetent, I want to know about it, and will be actively critical.

  6. Frank # 54. Yep, I understand that for overseas news, but simply think that reports could be framed as e.g., ”Reuters report that blah, blah”, as a more accurate way of assigning source. I’m more critical of the reporting of whatever anyone has said, as a stenographic exercise, as Bushfire Bill has described it.

  7. What is with the Italian surnames in the NSW Labor Party..Della Bosca..Tripodi..Costa..and Iemma …..what does it all mean??
    Oh for the says when Australian politics were the preserve of leaders with Good Old Ossie Names like Santamaria!

  8. Colin
    Looking over the Blogs I do not see too many people defending Della Bosca/Neal but I do see a few people questioning the accounts of what has happened. You are right in saying there is smoke, but the question is where is the smoke coming from? It could be coming from both sides(most likely) or from one side or the other.

    But the events are not clear because of the conflicting accounts and what people have signed and retracted.

    If this thing has to be done to death lets have the truth, and not just listen to media hype.

    Police are investigating.

    That was a sweeping statement re Labor politicians. I wonder who you had in mind or was that you just baracking for your own team?

  9. Amazing developments in the handling of the Nationals referral of a letter to the CMC yesterday.

    [But the woman who was the source of the information supplied to the CMC by Mr Messenger expressed anger that the MP had referred the matter to the watchdog.

    “It was a private conversation,” she said. “I don’t know where Rob Messenger is getting off on this, but if I wanted our discussion about my previous encounters with members of the Queensland Parliament to be raised with the Crime and Misconduct Commission, I would have raised them with the CMC myself.”

    The woman, who worked for Rose as an electorate officer, said she had made a formal complaint to the Nationals about Mr Messenger’s actions.],23739,23859955-952,00.html

  10. OOPS – looks like The Australian has got a bit ahead of itself with the recent proposed redistribution. The one remaining One Nation member in the Queensland Parliament is the Member for Tablelands until after the next election under the proposed new boundaries.

    After that the Member for Nanango will be the last remaining former One Nation member in the Queensland Parliament if she is re elected.,25197,23861134-5006786,00.html

  11. [The member for Nanango, northwest of Brisbane, is the only one of 11 One Nation MPs elected to the Queensland parliament a decade ago who is still there.

    She invokes the same “anti-politician” rhetoric her former party leader Pauline Hanson used to shake the political landscape.

    But these days, the woman who took over Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s old seat based on Kingaroy sits as an independent, leaving the sole remaining One Nation MP anywhere in Australia as Rosa Lee Long, the member for Tablelands in North Queensland.]

    Looking at it more closely, it is the first paragraph of this quote that is incorrect and in conflict with the third paragraph. The third paragraph is correct.

  12. There is no conflict steve.

    Pratt is the only surviving member of the 11 One Nation candidates elected in 1998. Fact.

    The original One Nation member for Tablelands defected and Rosa Lee Long took the seat as the new One Nation candidate in 2001.

  13. Antony Green

    The problem with the ABC at the moment is that some sectors are trying to out trivialize the commercial sector.

    I love radio national, and news radio is a good listen but 774, what a complete waste of tax payers money. Ok you don’t get commercials but it still just drivel.

    And when it comes to political drivel instead of informed debate on issues ( which radio national seems to be able to manage) you in my view have to expect people to complain.

  14. Doug #60

    Della Bosca was in the way of Gillard-Iemma’s plans to break with the unions in NSW and hand over IR to Canberra. That’s why he and Neal were sorted out. It’s a political stitch-up of the NSW Right. Fun to watch!

  15. Roman Catholic cuckold, Tony Abbott and cuckolder, the blessed Grenadine Doogue, were on ABCRN this morning discussing the impeding invasion of our southern secular Sodom by former Hitler Youth member, ould Red Socks, and it seems a huge number of faithful peach bottomed boys and nubile young women from all over Australia and the known universe.

    A lot of the discussion was incomprehensible to anyone living in the 21st century concerning it appeared the beauty and mystery of traditional liturgy and how love (as perceived by the celibate priesthood) can help one calculate the number of angels able to dance on the head of a pin (or something). Tony did manage to slip in the lie that JP2 had single handily managed to bring the Soviet Empire to ruin by smiting it with the jaw bone of a castrato or something. (You have to take your hat off to the way in which he sticks to his liturgy that one.) When will they take that particular canard out the back and shoot it?

    But the thing that really stood out was the way in which Tony could not let Doogue utter more than three words without letting out an empathetic “mmmm” or chirrup. These are straight of any decent seminary’s handbook on active listening in the confessional but it does not make for good radio (or TV). And they are getting louder. A few months ago they sotto voce but now they are loud and insistent. Somebody should tell him that it is quite distracting and makes him sound more like an appointed prince of the church rather than the democratic politician he claims to be. Alternatively perhaps Pope Ben could hand him the biretta he so clearly lusts after and he could take off for a life of pleasure and study among the men’s men of the Curia.

    One cost of the Roman Catholic Festival of Yoof (or whatever it is) that hasn’t been counted is its impact on education (at least the Catholic variety). My daughter’s friends who attend RC schools seem to be spending inordinate amounts of time both during and outside school hours preparing in various ways for the visit and it seems very little real school work is being attended to. It will be hard for some of them to ever catch up. The hidden costs of this festa will be with us for years it seems never mind the vast direct subsidies we are asked to chip in for by the supposedly secular state and federal governments.

  16. Fact: Iggies is well known as an youngies venue where the wannabees hang out
    most of the staff are part of the “in scene” and regard anyone over 25 as verboten
    IT IS WELL KNOWN LOCALLY AS A PLACE TO GET POINTS-those that understand this last statement will understand the staffs arrogance and “holier than thou” one of the stat deccers nickname is “benji’ and that aint cause he is a lovable toy

    della’s biggest mistake was going there in the first place
    im sure the cops will turn up some very interesting facts.

  17. Charles @65
    Ok, what should local radio do, the same as what’s on Newsradio and Radio National? My biggest criticism of local radio in the last year or two is its tendency to get expert guests on and keep interrupting them with callers who make ill-informed comments. But isn’t that elitist of me to say they shouldn’t do that? Wouldn’t doing that be like only allowing people who know their stuff being allowed to comment in this channel? And sure they run cooking segments and they take talk-back calls on light-weight topics. But hey, they also get two to three times as many listeners as news radio and radio national combined.

    Now you will say the ABC shouldn’t care about ratings. But i’d also say, how much funding would the ABC get if it only had the ratings of Radio national and NewsRadio? How many people would listen to programs like AM and PM if they weren’t on a more popular local radio station? It’s a question of which model of public broadcasting you support. Do you go down the US Public Radio path, which is real minority broadcasting, or do you go the BBC route, which is broader public broadcasting, providing a range of popular and more high-brow programming. These things are always a matter of balance. The ABC would be totally wrong not to have a network like Radio National, but no national network can ever do local radio well.

    And just work out the cost of local radio. Radio National has one morning breakfast show. Local Radio has one in every capital and most regional centres. every one of them has between one and three off-air producers chasing stories and lining up talent, and often chasing the same talent. That’s not cheap and it’s not easy to do, but it is a great learning ground for young journalists, and you would be surprised how many senior journalists got their first breaks in off-air local radio production. But local radio is also popular, because it does a whole pile of local things, like lots of traffic and weather, and it does stories on things that directly affect peoples lives. That may be trivia, but hey, on a day to day basis, most people care much more about the little things that affect their daily life than they do about the big issues that Radio National covers. And remember, one of the most popular Radio National programs is always Life Matters, which deals with all those domestic life balance issues which a lot of people consider trivial.

    I’ve always had a joke about how the 7:30 report can kill its ratings for the evening. My line up would be a story on vertical fiscal imbalance in the Commonwealth, a story on the need for furthering the Doha trade round, something on improving indigenous health, and then wrap it up with a story on the foreign policy dilemmas created by the collapse of Papua-New Guinea. All very worthy and important, but who would watch it! Every program has to have light and shade. If all ABC programs did the sort of programming heard on radio National, then the ratings would be tiny, and no one would even care whether the ABC was biased or not, because no one would be listening and its influence would be nil. Why are there so few complaints about SBS being biased, because it isn’t or because no one cares given its ratings?

    But the one thing I’ve learnt about working for the ABC is that every member of the public will think they have the right to whinge at me about something the ABC changed that they didn’t like, or something they think it should do. There is one person I know who still whinges about the ABC’s decision to abandon a 15 minute radio bulletin at 6.45am. That decision was made 20 years ago!

  18. Doug @50. My comment was, what did the government say 6 months ago, not last week. I to be honest don’t know and have no interest in getting into any agrument about whaling.

    But there are standard ways that a Canberra press conference is run, or a press statement issued. The spokesman, in this case Nelson, would make his brief statement and get his lines across for the cameras and radio mikes, and take a couple of questions, but a limited number. His press officer would also circulate a press release with a copy of the statement, and if it was an attack on the position of the government, it would almost always include a selection of past statements by the government. If you don’t do that, the first question would always be ‘When did the government say xyz…’.

    It is very easy for people in here to say Nelson’s position is BS, but no reporter can refuse to report what he says. Vera said earlier that the media is just running his agenda. Well, he is running an agenda, as is the government, and the media does tend to report their agenda, or run with it, whatever you want to call it. If you’re a commentator, say someone like Piers Akerman, you can just dismiss the spin from both sides and write what you think is the truth. A lot of people in this channel seem to think that’s what all journalists should do. But it does rather strike me that a lot of people in here are certain that they know the truth, and they get very upset that people in the media aren’t reporting what they the listener knows is ‘the truth’.

    Any physicist knows there are two sorts of statistical bias in an experiement, experimental bias and observer bias. I think the distinction should be remembered when chucking claims around about media bias.

  19. I see the Daily Morongraph wants to make Iemma the bad guy in suspending Della Bosca. What next? So we are now to feel for John?

  20. gusface #75
    I’m sure the cops will find he did what political big nobs always do, throw their weight around. They have been carrying on that way for ever and it has never been a problem for the ALP before.

    This is a power struggle about the unions. There is no way Rudd and Gillard would have made such a fuss about Neal if it wasn’t a way of bringing down della bosca.

  21. Well GB 77

    1) Della Bosca was a problem for Gillard because he was heading the only opposition to her plans to centralise IR in Canberra

    2) he is certainly a problem for Iemma for similar reasons re electricity privatisation

    3) there were reports that Iemma was about to roll Della Bosca anyway and abolish his IR portfolio to meet Gillard’s purposes and

    4) it is hard to believe that Rudd had to deal with Neal while on a fairly important mission in Japan just because of the issue itself, this is hardly new behaviour by either of them.

    It looks a fairly obvious political play to me.

  22. 79 – I’m not saying you are necessarily wrong but again that posting would fit nicely on the front page of the Daily Morongraph. All speculation but not an ounce of proof. Give me the proof and I’ll happily say you are right.

  23. GB 81 Proof of what? That Della Bosca has opposing political interests to Iemma/Gillard/Rudd? Or do you want the napkin they wrote the plans on? Stop worrying about the DT. I hardly feel sorry for Della Bosca!

  24. So I’m to accept that what you say is correct? Why should I do that? Do you accept everything you read as gospel? Are you an “insider”? The napkin contents would be great.

  25. Piping, even if JDB does oppose Gillard/Iemma/Rudd what is there to say your reasoning is correct? There are other political considerations that would have come into it. Rudd’s move was politically sound. Neal is out of the picture now. It’s back on JDB and, by the way, Iemma.

  26. GB I’m not sure what other political considerations you mean. I think electricity privatisation and breaking with the unions is pretty important for Iemma at the moment and DB’s opposition to centralising IR must be the main guide to Gillard’s view of him (plus him being a NSW Right hack).

    If you are worried that the DT’s sympathy campaign will work I would imagine no-one will give a stuff about Della Bosca. This is the most politically painless way Iemma can cut the union opposition off at the knees.

  27. Antony, if you were honest with us knuckleheads you would not be so shy in admitting that journalists censor by omission all the time. The indignation you express at the suggestion Brendan Nelson’s agenda be judged worthy of omission is quite revelatory.

  28. 75
    Gary Bruce
    Apparently not, Online their excuse is it’s because they are young and inexperienced and underpaid poor things!
    TV & radio have the “experienced” jurnos, I guess that suggests Insiders isn’t biased, I can’t come at that, but hey what would a knucklehead know?
    Antony Green Says:
    “If you want that sort of analysis, you will not, not, not, not get it in an on-line news service done on an hourly turn around basis. It’s always written by the youngest, most in-experienced and lowest paid journalists. The ones with more experience are doing newspapers, radio or television.”

  29. 86 – Piping I’m not worried about how JDB is perceived at all. I’m criticising the way the Daily Morongraph is trying to keep this story going when really now it is a matter of waiting for the investigation to finish.
    IMHO you’re reading too much into Rudd’s and Gillard’s motives. I believe their motive was to get Neal off the front pages as quickly as possible and same with Iemma. By the way Sky Noos was saying how much Iemma relies on JDB. He’ll be back.

  30. The Piping Shrike #76

    you say “I’m sure the cops will find he did what political big nobs always do, throw their weight around.”

    You are way off track here imho.

    Firstly they are investigating the opposing sworn statements in the stat decs. “He says / she says” classic situation. The cops need proof, which they are most unlikely to EVER find.

    They do not throw a coin, they cannot say these political big nobs threw their weight around. Thats why we have separation of powers in our system.

    Almost certainly, the cops will have no case to proceed with unless some real evidence of a stitch up like (illegally ?) taped conversations or phone calls, written documents etc come to light.

    Again, I wasn’t there. Prehaps YOU were ? Because you have made a big call – “I’m sure the cops will find he did what political big nobs always do, throw their weight around.”

    Lets just hold fire…..and what FACTS emerge.

    In breaking news however Porkey Piers is reporting that Della farted at lunchtime on friday and is demanding Della be executed before 6 pm tonight….

  31. Interesting blog. At least both sides seem to be contributing today.
    ABC bias, hmmm, every time I listen to Philip Adams I scratch my head. And he operated all through the Howard years. Basically I think he’s about as relevant as his mate Gough, which isn’t at all. Other bias, well sniffer got saturation coverage in WA on ABC, for about a week, whereas the creep who propositioned a staffer for a threesome hardly got a mention, and none at all on TV news. Management refuses to talk about it. Otherwise they’re pretty good.
    Rudd got himself elected by working out what people were annoyed about-fuel prices, grocery prices, whales,work life balance, and then suggested he’d fix it. Slowly people are working out that they were conned,he’s just a power mad bureaucrat, good at spin but basically a light weight. I’m still working out the thing on solar panels- if your income is above a certain level, your carbon emmissions don’t matter?
    The rest of them- especially the Govts in NSW and WA, frankly completely and utterly drunk on power. Dreadful people.

  32. I can take or leave Philip Adams himself, but the diversity and quality of guests on his program is second to none, and that is why I listen to it.

    As to Rudd being nothing more than a con artist, spoken like a true partisan ideologue who will never concede any good he might do in his time.

    I’m still working out the thing on solar panels- if your income is above a certain level, your carbon emmissions don’t matter?

    Oh puhleese. Means testing is a completely legit way of restricting and targeting state support (you know, the dreaded welfare that conservatives claim to be so opposed to, unless of course you are John Howard trying to buy votes, in which case everybody gets invited to the party).

  33. unless of course you are John Howard trying to buy votes, in which case everybody gets invited to the party

    And the next government gets to clean the budgetary mess it causes.

  34. I reckon Pipe-man has a point.He may be right, might be wrong, who knows?

    But his input is happily accepted, indeed, needed around this place… IMHO

    is he right?… no idea

    is he wrong… no idea

    Beats crapping on about how biased the OZ,ABC or whatever

  35. “Rudd got himself elected by working out what people were annoyed about-fuel prices, grocery prices, whales,work life balance, and then suggested he’d fix it.” Rubbish.
    “Slowly people are working out that they were conned,he’s just a power mad bureaucrat, good at spin but basically a light weight.” More rubbish.
    This is straight from the Liberal Party handbook.

  36. Ian, if your income is above a certain limit of course your carbon emission matter. And with your high income, you can afford to fix them all up out of your own pocket.

    You would, in some Fantasyland, love to believe that Rudd “suggested” he could fix the world’s problems. But it just ain’t true that he made any such suggestion. I find this constant carping on by the bunch of sore losers that call themselves “the Right” about how Rudd… shock!… horror!… played … oh my gosh!…. politics! to get elected genuinely hilarious.

    For those who have been hiding under a rock for the whole of their lives, politics is what politicians do. John Howard, surely one of the most political animals in the menagerie, tried to make out he was the Solomon-like “Father Of The Nation”, everyone’s benign uncle, who’d dispense good advice to the littlies in the rest of the family, entirely without thought for himself or whether his words and deeds would have any effect on his chances for re-election.

    What rot.

    You can rave on all you like about what people thought was “suggested” to them by Rudd, but repeated attempts to pin “Interest Rates Will Always Be Lower Under The Coalition” type porkies on Kevin by experts have not washed. The only resort they have is to repeatedly claim that somehow or other Rudd knew people would interpret his words without the clearly stated qualifications made at the time and that is stupidity (or wilful ignorance, or bias, or all three) on the part of voters is somehow part of Rudd’s cunning master plan to promise the Earth and deliver dirt.

    It is far better to have a reasoned debate and a clearly enunciated process of achieving a goal than to whip out an envelope from your pants pocket and scribble an “Aboriginal Intervention” or a “Murray-Darling Plan” on the back of it, and then present it to the people via your shills in the media who couldn’t give a toss about water or the aborigines’ plight as a work of statesmanlike genius.

    What Howard was good at was not dropping the ball. That and bribing precisely-selected segments of the population with well-timed handouts that ultimately contributed to a completely misplaced feeling of well-being and that nothing could go wrong under the Little Master.

    The ball he has passed onto Rudd is higher inflation, 12 successive rises in interest rates (the first ten under Howard’s government) and the sudden realisation that buying a McMansion in Western Sydney for twice what it’s worth doesn’t make you rich, especially when the price tanks. and still – no change from 1996 when Howard got into power – this country’s livliehood is based on digging holes in the ground and flogging off the debris to countries who really do know how to do something useful with it. We then buy this debris back in the form of imported cars, plasma screens and cheap clothing at ten times the price we sold it for. Wow, what a genius Howard was.

    Howard knew things were headed for belly-up status. He also knew his confidence trick on the Australian public had worked too well. This is why Costello started talking doom and gloom on the economy with his ridiculous “finely tuned Ferrari” metaphor. Then, when it didn’t happen straightaway, they tried to delay the election until it did. They were like Dennis Conner sailing his America’s Cup yacht into the spectator fleet, hoping the Aussie boat would hit a motor launch and sink. Only, when interest rates went up just before the election the public turned on Howard and not towards him.

    At least Rudd is trying. At least his government is trying to get some new ideas about who we are and where we are going up and running before we drown in our own complacency. And you blame him for not fixing the world’s problems up in all of seven months?

    What has been the Opposition’s main contribution to the debate? Drop 5c a litre off the price of petrol. Since that announcement petrol has already gone up 15 cents. Within a month or so it may well be 20c. Who’s know where Brendan’s 5c went? Apart from that, nothing from the Opposition except a muddled message about whether Howard was right or wrong and endless speculation about who’s going to take over the helm of the doomed Liberal Party ship. It’s you classic Messiah Complex. We hear about these every day. Some bunch of deluded souls crawls into a hole of their own making expecting their guru or high priest to save them when the world ends. And it never happens, just like it won’t happen wioth the Libs until they face the reality that they were out-politicked by Rudd and that their brand stank to high heaven, out of power in all states and federally for the first time in history, their leader despatched to Barbados to watch the cricket and kibbitz from the sidelines in his spare time.

    Look to your own side, Ian. Look to what they didn’t do in 12 long years about the way this country works. And then come back and tell us that all this can be – and was promised to be – fixed up in 7 short months.

    Every country in the world is doing it tough this 2008. Howard’s greatest sin was that he convinced us that we were somehow immune to the malaise that now grips a world at the end of the era of oil.

  37. Howard collected enough negative brownie points over the years to outweigh the supposed good brownie points. Enough people got to dislike him, had enough of him or saw little use for him in a future context and thus were thus willing to change.

    WorkChoices, Iraq, AWB were enough to damage his brand and interest rate rises to put cracks in the economic myth.

    But it still needed an alternative that was safe and was aware where Australians had moved to.

    I think Rudd made himself acceptable by pursuing the economic conservative line – a main reason why people might refrain from changing.

    Climate Change, thinking beyond the Mining Boom, domestic microeconomic issues, education, health are all issues Howard should have been on top of anyway – the fact that he wasn’t only shows that he was past it as a deserving PM.

    His personal ideological? pursuits stopped him from seeing the things he should have – too busy pouring money in to private schools, protecting the Green Mafia enterprises, trying to wedge State govts out of office through starving health funding..etc

    In fact Australians were actually quite on the ball, they one way or another chose rightly. They had a PM who was no longer interested in Australians or their well being and were presented with an acceptable alternative.

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