Morgan: 58.5-41.5

This week’s Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s lead down to 58.5-41.5 from 63-37 last week, its weakest Morgan face-to-face showing since the election of the Rudd government. It seems Morgan also conducted a phone poll between June 4-9 which put the score at 56-44, compared with the government’s previous weakest result of 58-42 at the phone poll of May 7-11.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

256 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  1. Who would have thought that 6 months into the Rudd government, 44 was the HIGHEST that the opposition could score. Impressive indeed.

  2. I’ve got to agree with what my good mate Fagin said in the earlier thread: Iemma is indeed a gutless tool, even the Chair Sniffer from WA has more balls?

  3. I think we can finally conlude that the electorate will always be a sucker for clever politics over clever policy.

    So who’s up for a carbon tax on petrol?

  4. Disagree Progressive, maybe we should go back to the US thread!! Regardless of Iemma or NSW ALP’s faults, which appear to be many although I am in Vic so I dont know enough about it, I think the standing down is a sensible response to an incident that is highly debatable

  5. The previous one at 63-37 did seem a little high considering what had happened the previous fortnight. This one taken last weekend would not have taken in Rudd’s Japan visit.

    Hell of a lot more encouragment for Lab than Lib. They still cannot make the grade despite everything. Newspoll will be interesting next week but they are governing for another 2.5 years and a blip(even a little one) now and again means nothing.

  6. Despite being one of those wanting action on DellaBosca/Neil, I am happy with the “mere” standing aside on Iguanagate. There are conflicting claims and it is still subject to police investigation so suspension pending the outcome is appropriate. Doing nothing was not.

  7. A 3.5% change is outside the MOE so should be regarded as significant IF IT PERSISTS. The polls are volatile at the moment and any shift one way is promptly followed by a shift in the opposite direction

  8. Progressive – you sound a bit like Brandis last night on ABC – he was wanting to be judge jury and executioner – all on the basis of hearsay ! That is all it is at the moment, with stats decs witnessed by a lib.

    Due course….just allow a bit of due course. Its in the hands of the cops – let them do whatever they need to do. In the meantime Della Bosco HAS stepped aside (or pushed – same outcome.)

    The chair sniffer in WA sacks a rival/ opponent – so what, just another case of political bloodletting imho.

    Do the libs REALLY see the chair sniffer as remotely electable ?? Really ?

  9. Agree Dave, I dont understand the urgency and degree of concern about this incident. Why would normally rational bloggers like Prog get so riled up about an incident in a restaurant where the circumstances are less than clear?? I dont get it

  10. I wish to clarify- havent the stat decs signed by a JP that is a Lib staffer BEEN WITHDRAWN?? If so, why are they still being regarded as evidence??

  11. I believe that as the declarations are legal documents you cannot just withdraw them. It would be like giving evidence in court and then saying ‘you know what, perhaps it wasn’t like that, i don’t really know, just leave me out of this.’ It doesn’t quite work like that.

    I believe this is the main question for the police, with conflicting stat decs from both sides, one side has legally lied. It’s a question of which side is playing sillybuggers.

  12. Re: Progressive and Andrew and Iguanagate.

    What you don’t understand about Della Bosca it that it is no longer a matter relating to rudeness or threats made in a restaurant. It is now about a coverup.

    Della Bosca got Iemma to stand by him on Tuesday on the basis of an apology letter from Iguanas. Iemma referred to the letter several times as a reason why he supported Della.

    It now turns out Della Bosca drafted the apology himself. Worse still he (or his office) lied about it when questioned by Macquarie Radio and the SMH yesterday. What is amazing is that Iemma still does not have the balls to sack him

  13. It is always the cover up that is the real scandal. A far smarter move would have been just to say when the story broke that the other parties were just publicy seeking. Although there is no clear evidence of a cover up, just the suggestion there might have been one.

    The rest of the story is rubbish. Soccer girl saw her chance of a bit of cash and gave her story, but there was no real crime. Others who come out of the woodwork to tell how much of a bitch Belinda are not telling anyone anything they don’t all ready know. And Sophie Mirabella’s baby may or may not be a devil child but having Sophie as a mum might not help.

  14. The original incident isn’t the thing that’s got Della Bosca and his wife into hot water, it’s the subsequent attempt to brush it under the carpet!
    I’m fine with letting the police investigate the matter, if Della Vosca is innocent, by all means reinstate him to Iemma’s ministry!
    And, who said I’m a rational blogger? You obviously haven’t read the U.S politics threads on this site LOL

  15. Whilst I still believe this is a beat-up, its really hard to believe that Della Bosca was stupid enough to draft the apology himself. Surely any politician worth their salt could have forseen the trouble that might cause??

  16. In the last eight Morgan polls the large disparity between the Phone and Face-to-Face results brings into question the accuracy of both. The Face to Face has been consistently higher than the Phone, which makes one wonder how the questions are put in Face-to-Face.

    This result, Face-to-Face of 58.5/41.5 is closer to the last Newspoll, 57/43, and is therefore probably nearer the mark. The last Face-to-Face two weeks ago of 63/37 looked like a wild outlier that if replicated at an election would virtually wipe out the Coalition. So it was never believable.

    If Dennis Shanahan does comment (which is unlikely being a Morgan poll), no doubt he will see this result as foretelling impending disaster for the Government, the gap having narrowed to just 17 points.

    The Morgan poll was taken last weekend after a difficult week for the Government. Next Tuesday’s Newspoll, which will be taken this coming weekend, might be an interesting reflection on Kevin Rudd’s visit to Japan and Indonesia.

  17. 22 – It is not as if Iemma doesn’t have his own problems either.

    Has anyone been to Iguana Joe’s? Sounds a little “Kath & Kim”ish to me.

  18. A Current Affair found not to be fairly representing views again.

    “This is the fifth time since 2005 that ACMA has upheld a complaint about the tabloid current affairs program’s failure to represent views fairly…”

    “Nine responded that it had conducted “intensive training with A Current Affair reporters and producers” about ACMA’s latest finding as well as the previous four on the same issue.”

  19. The whole business of Della Bosca and Belinda Neal is strange. Why would staff members withdraw a stautary declaration? Irespective of whether the allegations are true or untrue withdrawing them is an admission of a legal lie. Why would the staff do that? It makes no sense.

    If Bosca wrote the apology the staff still signed it. They did not have to sign it (no one was “pointing a gun at their head”)but in doing so they took full responsibility for it. In a sense it makes no difference who composed the wording.

    If Bosca threatened legal action then he is only exercising his right as a citizen. He is entitled to do this. Maybe they thought the original statemnents would not stand up to the legal process and it was the least of the evils to withdraw them straight away rather than let everything go too far and be tested in court.

    There are too many if’s and maybe’s. The whole thing does not string together right. The situation is in the right hands at present- being investigated by police.

    A lot of the talk in the Media is just speculation at the moment with the reporter’s slant.

    Who wrote the original allegations- did the nameless Lib staffer who apparently was a JP have a hand in it? Who knows? –Another if or maybe!

  20. This poll can only be good for Labor as far as its long term prospects for the next election are concerned.

    No, it’s no spin, it’s true!


    Because these sort of numbers are going to ensure that Brenda stays on as leader for longer, Turnbull will spit the dummy, and most importantly of all, Cossie may be more inclined to chuck it in.

    Remember, let’s go easy on Brenda lol.

  21. My previous bleating about the MSM reporting of political happenings, and specifically, the reporting by the ABC, is connected to the creation of perception, and I’ve got to say, ABC didn’t disappoint tonight. On ABC TV News tonight, I proffer the reporting of David Hicks having pleaded guilty, simply repeated from other sources, in relation to the U.S. Fed. Court ruling on the status of prisoners in Gitmo Bay. I also proffer the reporting of the schemozzle in Indonesia on PM as somehow being Rudd’s fault. This is about the creation of perception, and I would argue, the manipulation of the public. Antonio and Stuart may complain about the level of complaint about the functioning of the so-called fourth estate, but in my view, there’s little balance evident, and much continuing and cumulative evidence of, either extraordinary laziness or deliberate mischief, though I will concede pressure to produce vs. resources to do so. I would have thought that being attuned to what is reported and how it is reported would be of intense political interest?

  22. With the Dela Bosca and Neale incident, I certainly do not want to go to their defence. But I will say this, if they had gone out to a privately owned restaurant none of this would have happened.

    Restaurant proprietors treat their customers with decency and respect. A far cry from most clubs and pubs who are disrespectful, are offensive bullies and stand over you, and stick together (the staff) if there are any disputes.

  23. theres something a bit off in the Della Boscagate, i can’t get past the lib staffer conveniently being there to witness the whole thing and to be able to issue and take sworn statements immediatly, even the soccer girl, she had a couple of faint marks yet she dramatically claimed she was’nt sure if she’d been damaged for life, i must admit i burst out laughing when she came out with that–why on earth was she playing soccer if a couple of faint bruises has her disabled for life? c’mon ive got bigger bruises than that from knocking my leg against the desk when i get up, we know from the phamplet sting that the libs dont mind a bit of a set up, at the time just before the election, a couple of witnesses claimed it was’nt the first time, it’s all a bit too convenient for me,the Della Boscas certainly havent handled it very well but that still does’nt make him or her guilty, i’m just a bit uncomfortable with the whole thing, hmm, maybe the police can sort it out.

  24. Stateline NSW had a round up of the whole weeks coverage concerning the big wazoo surrounding Bosca, Neale etc starting with the story in last Sunday’s Terror. It included some questions still yet to be answered by the Liberals at the end that are interesting.

    Overall it came across as a story that blew way out of proportions thanks to Bosca not being as open at the first press conference on the Sunday as he could have been. It really didn’t need to and shouldn’t have come to this.
    (Not sure when the transcript will be on the the Stateline NSW website.)

  25. Harry at #28

    I am not sure what you are referring to in relation to Indonesia.

    However, my understanding is that David Hicks did plead guilty. This may certainly have been part of a “plea bargain” (ie. plead guilty and we will repatriate you to Australia) but he did plead guilty. I do not think this qualifies as MSM bias. It is merely the statement of a fact.

  26. Re Judy Barnes at #33

    As a liberal supporter, I am amazed that the ALP has not made more of Hartcher’s involvement. Hartcher has been particularly quiet.

    It actually reassures me. Hartcher is apparently hard right (part of David Clarkes clique – great alliteration) and they are known for their ambivilence towards O’Farrell. Maybe the Liberals are finally pulling on the same oar.

    This bodes well for the next state election.

  27. Harry – yeah I got the same impression that abc news were implying the indonesian “slip” was somehow Rudds fault.

    Seems to be that pattern with abc’s reporting of late, a la Cassidy last week. We expect it of the other msm reptiles but expect better from aunty.

    Its getting to the stage that if Rudd walked across sydney harbour, the headline would be “RUDD CAN’T SWIM”

    With parliament back next week it will be more of the same

  28. If we could get a copy of SBY quote without the translation we could get an idea of what he says. But I can’t here what he said. I am sure someone in the media will get a copy from the Indonesian media and then we will know.

  29. stuart, while i’m a strong laborite i want to see good oppositions to keep the governments on their toes,HOWEVER i want honest oppositions who are strong on their merits and not for pulling shonkeys with the aid of their media mates, ive seen too much of those neat little tricks in the past, maybe i’m wrong, but this hooha just doesnt feel right, if it is a set up i can only hope one of the staff will break down and tell the police, if their cops are anything like SAPOL they’ll be sniffing around for rats.
    don’t take this as supporting the Della Bosca’s i’d just like to know the truth,either they or newsltd is going to end up with a huge egg omelet on their faces, another thing that disturbs me is the opposition screaming for them to be sacked before the police investigation is complete, the three libs in Queensland didnt get sacked while they were being investigated last year and it was for much, much more serious offences than this beat up.

  30. Here goes ABC again pushing Brenda’s agenda for next week’s parliment for him
    Nelson accuses Rudd of softening whaling stance
    “Mr Rudd said that he was going to take the Japanese and the Japanese whalers to the international courts and he’s now decided that he won’t be doing that.”
    The fact that it’s BS and Kev has said he hasn’t changed his mind on whaling and that if diplomacy fails and after Garrett attends Internation Whaling Commission meeting in Chile in a fortnight ,the courts are still an option doesn’t get a mention by #%#* ABC!
    A poll last week said 90% want Japan taken to court over whaling
    Brenda’s big issue for QT “Rudd soft on Japan etc”

    Now where have we seen all this before???
    Poll do pensioners & carers need more help
    topic pushed by msm to be used by Libs in QT as the issue of the week
    Poll is petrol too dear
    topic pushed by msm to be used by Libs in QT as the issue of the week

    Is it just me or is their predicibility (Libs and media) becoming ridiculous?

  31. Vera, you’re a knucklehead and you truly have no idea what you’re talking about. What do you want the reporter to do. Not report what Brendan Nelson has to say? Do you think journalists should censor what’s said at press conferences or written in press releases. Why are you so sure that what he says is BS? Can you honestly say you know everything Kevin Rudd and Peter Garrett have said on whaling in the last 6 months, because I’m sure as hell the reporter writing the story couldn’t tell you. Just put yourself in the position of a Canberra reporter, deluged from sun-up to midnight by press releases, reports, media feeds, day in day out, and ask then to know everything said in the last six months on every topic.

    If you want that sort of analysis, you will not, not, not, not get it in an on-line news service done on an hourly turn around basis. It’s always written by the youngest, most in-experienced and lowest paid journalists. The ones with more experience are doing newspapers, radio or television.

    It’s very easy for you to sit in an on-line blog and whinge that you know better, but from what you’ve written in the last day or two, I’m absolutely certain that you don’t know better.

  32. It does seem to be open season on the ALP government.

    Not that there aren’t criticisms to be made, but most of them are just beat ups. Why is the media doing it? Are they just bored?

  33. 45 says
    “you’re a knucklehead and you truly have no idea what you’re talking about”
    Knucklehead aye?
    bit touchy there aren’t you fella, as others have said we all have our opinions and are entiltled to them
    Oh! sorry ABC doesn’t work like that does it lol!

  34. One of the complaints about Howard was his supposed suppression of free speech highlighted in the excellent article by David Marr “Careful he might hear you”

    Now we have a media criticising the government, often justified, and people complain they are biased?

    Plenty of pro labor articles if you look for them.

  35. Antony 45
    Rudd has said at least twice in the last week that he would try Diplomacy first and go to the Courts as the second resort over whaling. He said it on Ch.10 last Sunday and this week in Japan at the Press Club to both Japanese and Australian journalists. He is not softening his stance and his strategy makes sense seeing that Japan is a friend. I know this and I am just an interested by-stander. Why does not Nelson know this? What he said is BS as Vera says. Fair enough the on – line may be reporting verbatim what people say without criticism, but if they are without bias they should follow this process everytime.

    It is not on -line ABC I am concerned so much as the TV bulletins.

    It does seem to be open season on the Labor Gov’t in all MSM at the moment and while I can speculate the reason I don’t really know it. Can you enlighten us?

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