Slate presents the Democratic race in seven (and a half) minutes.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
They are desperate writers of headlines on Guam:
BREAKING NEWS: 11 p.m. — Still no results yet from Democratic caucus
…doesn’t that get your heart rate up?
150
THR
I’m waiting for Sanscrit myself. Mind you, some posts are as indecipherable with just the current alphabet! LOL
RAIN
#145
enjoyed the post. doesn’t give us a good reputation. The US conclusion was that the venom of his anti Hillary attacks made them think Ellis was a conservative !
Strange the US conclusion was that the venom of his anti Hillary attacks because they have been the same ghere from Obama supporters and they sound like conservatives sometimes here too.
Their closing critique was humerous Rain
‘I’d like to say Ellis must be a conservative, but he isn’t; Steyn describes Ellis as “an Aussie leftie and an Obama groupie,”
The other thought about policy is everytime I talk policy the Obama supporters run away in silence. They just want to talk his great dream he’ll bring racial harmony & ‘change’ whatever that is !
They may be running away for other reasons Ron
GAM
#128
you said you voted for Bush in 2004
Kirri speaks to you after that quote cause Kirri lives in fairland policy as well
I thought Kirri was a closet Repug but he does like to get praised otherwise he’ll drop off talking to you
Like that comment for example
Ferny
#154
no , you guys are policy shallow , what with the categorys you’re in I ‘m not surprised. As I said Ferny you scored in one of the 4 categorys , fitting with the latee eh
“The other thought about policy is everytime I talk policy the Obama supporters run away in silence. They just want to talk his great dream he’ll bring racial harmony & ‘change’ whatever that is !
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Yeah *nodding*. Its a formula:
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Policy discussion:
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Hold fingers tightly in ears and chant loudly …la,la,la,la,la… until person gives up and goes away.
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Rinse and repeat.
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If that doesn’t work, focus on “process” – math, rulez, math, rulez, math, rulez, math, math and more math (but only the ones that suit me)
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Rinse and repeat.
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If that doesn’t work, repeat the mantra of ‘change’ – ‘hope’ – ‘unity’ – blah, blah.
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Rinse and repeat.
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Oh Rain
you said it so concisely.
Its just I and you have seen thedevastion , and the assistance real policy can only start t make a little inroad ….but for some , the elitist-view lot, a Labor
vote in an election makes them feel good on the their way to suing som epor soul or to the jolly gentleman’s club
I must be getting old, I dont relate to “elitist”, I think they are trendies in my old Uni generational-speak – back in the late 70s, they were the rich kids of northern Sydney, slumming it over south side of Sydney, coz it was trendy to be a “poor” Uni student, eating Vogel’s bread and playing vegetarians.
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Having trips overseas, and showing off their purchases of exotic clothing or whatever from third-world countries etc, as “proof” of their contribution to, and genuine concern about 3rd-world poverty, saving the whales etc, while sipping imported French Chardonnay on Sydney Harbour yachts.
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All talk, no action.
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That’s enough Ron! If you wanted a discussion, more of us would happily discuss policy with you. But you don’t want a discussion, Ron – you want an ARGUMENT – and frankly it’s not worth the hassle. This is not about gaining an understanding of different viewpoints to you Ron. For some reason you need to prove something to yourself – that you can win an argument. I’m not sure why you have such an inferiority complex that causes you to be this way,but I want no part of it.
And what’s more you consistently attack and abuse anyone who sees things differently to you. Take GAM above for example. So he voted for Bush? He openly shared his view and for that he gets abused by you.
It’s unnecessary Ron and it really needs to stop. I tried to tell you the other night that I will not play this tit for tat little game of yours, but you did not listen. I can’t abide abusers and bigots Ron, and this is what you are.
Until you learn some civility I will not read any further posts of yours.
To those who deify Barack Obama, I post this link:
http://savagepolitics.com/
Specifically, the “Truth vs Barack Obama” article. Each allegation is pertinent, each allegation is sourced, and the Republicans will ahve a field day with them if he becomes the nominee.
Once Hillary has been beaten:
Finns, Rain,GG = Richard Dreyfuss
Ron = Bill Murray
What About Bob
Thank you Ferny – someone needed to say it.
RAIN
‘elitists’-view based just another word for trndies , except they think they are even more superior
Here FINNS my colleague & I are talking about on the US thread about ThePastor’s rcial comments effect on the US election and about policys and Hillary’s equity policys. Like increasing rich taxes back to pre Bush levels after he gave them a tax cut , and giving the money to the less well off , and supertaxing oil companies for redistribution & alternative energy use giving the poor a decent healthcare.
They don’t even want to talk about such policys. Not interested which is hardly Labor based at heart my friend
and the ‘Obama supporters’ talking about Russian Liminov and his colourful life and his connection with Kasparov and the NBP and Putin in a literary discussion
ivort tower stuff I’m afraid
Guam update:
BREAKING NEWS: Sen. Obama Takes Ordot; Sen. Clinton Captures Maina
Pacific News Center Staff Reporter 03.MAY.08
11:10 p.m. Guam – The official results for the Democratic Party’s primary election in two areas reveal that Senator Barack Obama took Ordot while Senator Hillary Clinton won in Maina.
Obama took Ordot’s delegates with a vote of 37 against Clinton’s 18. Clinton won Maina, 22 to 19.
http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/default.asp?sourceid=&smenu=161&twindow=Default&mad=No&sdetail=24089&wpage=1&skeyword=&sidate=&ccat=&ccatm=&restate=&restatus=&reoption=&retype=&repmin=&repmax=&rebed=&rebath=&subname=&pform=&sc=1718&hn=pacificnewscenter&he=.com
Same news here …
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080503/NEWS01/80504002
woops – wrong link
Ferny
#161
every time you are put under pressure on policy , you lack the detail and go silent or are uninterested. As for your lectures , that is typical of an elitist-view based support for Obama. Your sanctimonious blogs are just that, empty & shallow particularly on Obama policy which you’ve been shown up for. Nob thinking on politics
BREAKING NEWS: 11:50 p.m. — Obama leads after three districts counted
11:50 p.m. — Sen. Barack Obama is leading after three Democratic caucus districts have been counted.
Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina and 151 in Inarajan for a total of 207 votes.
Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina and 81 in Inarajan for a total of 121 votes.
In the race for chairman/vicechairman, the team of Pilar Lujan/Jaime Paulino have 245 votes in the three counted districts. Antonio Charfauros/Mary Ann Cabrera have 65 total votes and the team of Joseph Artero Cameron/Arlene P. Bordallo have 55 votes.
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080503/NEWS01/80504002
Ferny
“Until you learn some civility I will not read any further posts of yours.’
you were not taught it which is evident in your Obama generalisations as he displays the same sanctimonious political thoughts as well
Okay, that’ll do.
William , Ferny interrupted a conversation between me 7 Rain where no blogers were named or even implied. it was unwarranted 7 unjustified
He has no right to make interupting sanctimonious lectures to anyone and given the tone of his interrupting blog 3161 , if anyone should be given a lecture it should be him
I’ll abide by your decision
Like increasing rich taxes back to pre Bush levels after he gave them a tax cut
Improving equity in wealth distribution, I always understood to be a standard ALP-style policy (please correct me if I’m wrong?). I enjoyed Hillary’s discussion of that issue with O’Reilly, (although I dont like her mid-western cackle either, but mid-westerners do – it goes with the local regional accent) I thought she really got that point across about ways of improving equity in access to health, education and taxation policy, and reminded me of Rudd with Kerrie O’Brien, or was it Laurie Oakes? or whoever – in a similar subject-matter interview last year. ie Her comment about “both of us” are in that tax-bracket , Rudd did the same thing.
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Speaking of Laurie Oakes, I still have bookmarked a somewhat old piece of his about how Rudd may not be keen on Obama, because of his preference for protectionist foreign trade policies:
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http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=449521&_cobr=optus
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If he means what he says, Obama would be the most protectionist US president for years.
None of this should be music to Australian ears.
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I thought it interesting, that Rudd had a behind-closed-doors meeting with Hillary, but open-with-cameras meeting with McCain, and only a phone call with Obama. can’t read anything to that, may just have been the demands of busy schedules of busy people.
I am not sure I like the concept of the half vote. Why not 3/5?
RAIN
perhaps you may return another time to talk Hillarys equity & social policys where blogers then present are interested in that area but its disappointing when some have no interest especially as there’s 45 million uninsured in the US and there is embarassment here because Obama’s healthcare policy has been demonstrated as a right wing choice only healthcare
and thanks for your thoughts
Ron
RAIN
glad you also saw the Hillary interview with O’Reilly
the obama supporters here falsely claimed Hillary was on O’Reilly’s side !
and said nothing of importance. The bias must be caused by Obama’s hypnotic speechs dumbing their political thoughts
you arre right , Obama is very protectionist & will hurt our exporters
Here is a sample ballot from Guam (with Billary’s name missing the B and an l).
WTF is going on with the male/female bit? What happens if all the male are crap and you only want to vote for females? They won’t let you.
PS Has anyone considered that it might be a bit tragic that Australians are sitting up at midnight watching the results of a Guam primary for 4 delegates in a US Democrat election when there are 4000 delegates in total?
Whoops! Forgot the link. Too many vinos.
Diogenes at 178
The thought had occurred to me – but it dissipated real quick!!
The bias must be caused by Obama’s hypnotic speechs dumbing their political thoughts
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Noooo..not entirely. The USA is the land of Hollywood, Disneyland etc. They are very, very good, Masters of the Art of Slick Propaganda, manipulative Entertainment and Manufactured Romantic Dreams. Make us look very provincial amateurs. Its very easy to be taken in by it, but a chunk of the US population have become de-sensitised, or innoculated against it.
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Youth vote for Obama for example. The younger groups have grown up with slick propaganda slime of 30-second false sound-bites about the Clinton administration, as well as romanticised and revised history in Hollywood movies about civil rights era etc. I remember being puzzled about one of Obama’s stump speeches, thinking where have I heard that before? Ohhhhh.. Duh.. of course, Denzel Washington’s famous speeches in the movie Malcolm X.
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That sort of thing doesn’t wash so much with older age groups, they lived those years and can remember the reality versus the romanticised revised version via Hollywood.
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Not really news – but this a good as I can get on a Guam update.
12:00 a.m. Guam – The results of three precincts are in, but the ballot counting at election central is still behind at this hour. After Maina, Ordot and Inarajan reported, Senator Barack Obama is leading Senator Hillary Clinton by 26 percentage points.
But the manual counting this year seems to be taxing officials. In fact, Herbie Perez, chairperson of the Democrat’s nominating committee, has stopped overseeing the process to form another group with her at the helm. She told the Pacific News Center previously that she expected tabulations to be complete by 11:30 p.m.
However, its currently 00:48 in Gaum and no new news.
RAIN
#174
“Like increasing rich taxes back to pre Bush levels after he gave them a tax cut
Improving equity in wealth distribution, I always understood to be a standard ALP-style policy (please correct me if I’m wrong?). ”
No , you are not wrong RAIN , it is traditional ALP policy. the problem here is that Hillary has that policy and Obama does not (so the Obama supporters except one) just say nothing about that policy or any Obama policy
its all about the dream & Obama’s ‘character’ being better than Hillary’s. However a sound POTUS does not have to be likeable or tell the truth (both lie anyway) nor is it relevant if they have expediency history as Hillary does. Although after Pastrogate , the pastor now is expedient also with his 20 year friend , family Uncle & mentor so thats another good characteristic Obama has lost. Hillary is seen to be too ruthless so what , as if Obama is not ambitious and has not been rithless to get there.
However POTUS is about making judgement decisions (Obama over Wright failed that, didn’t know the mentor after 20 years) , having ticker (Obama failed that , he stayed in the Church , only ‘privately disagreeing) and about policy(we’ve been through that , Hillary has some sound ALP policys & Obama has not).
So what has Obama left , he talks eloquently , but very disingenuously deceivingly. and his opponent has an annoyingly cackle and can be dislikeable.
and concurrently , I’m watching the football & its great
Thanks Catrina,
I’m getting similar news. Another headline says, “Obama ahead after 5 districts counted” but the article is password protected.
RAIN
#181
“I remember being puzzled about one of Obama’s stump speeches, thinking where have I heard that before? Ohhhhh.. Duh.. of course, Denzel Washington’s famous speeches in the movie Malcolm X.”
Your memory is remarkable RAIN. Did the MSM pick it up or they too pro obama
Guam Update:
1 a.m. — Obama leads Clinton 395-320 after six districts counted
“Denzel Washington’s famous speeches in the movie Malcolm X……Your memory is remarkable RAIN. Did the MSM pick it up or they too pro obama…”
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LOL, I guess not 🙂 Tweety was still getting QUOTE: “tingles up his leg” UNQUOTE over Obama’s eloquence. (Talking of closeted poofs!) But plenty of others noticed it on the net-sphere, and some smaller local newspapers, regional networks etc – Youtube vids were all over, splicing Denzel Washington speech clips with Obama’s stump speech, One of his Rinse and Repeats (the one about not letting them “hoodwink” or “bamboozle” you etc, he must know it off by heart by now).
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Did you know Arianna Huffington (Huffington Post) is an ex-Republican’s wife, who has a loooong history with the Clintons? Ohhh, does she want payback …And Lord Kos is also an ex-Republican, who writes a lot for the Cato Institute, which is Libertarian Party dominated
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RAIN
Hope you are enjoying a book or the football football or some other concurrent entertainment. I have not been onto any Guam site at all as there’s only 4 delegates up. But I’ve just checked my stats fom early Feb when I predicted Obama would win the delegate race and I had Obama 60/40 back in early in Feb. It left me with Obama 2 to 1 delegates and I gave each Candidate 1/2 of the other 1. I wouldn’t think the delegates will vary from Obama 2 to 1 and /2 each or Obama 3 to 1 delegates but is not going to decide the nominee anyway. Perhaps however it is a news positive for Obama as its a day news relief from the pastor but then the news will move back to Rev Wright or some other news story
Guam Update:
1:15 a.m. — Obama leads Clinton 497-401 after seven districts
RAIN
#188
“Did you know Arianna Huffington (Huffington Post) is an ex-Republican’s wife, who has a loooong history with the Clintons?” Ohhh, does she want payback
No , I did not know that at all RAIN. Thanks for the info, your knowledge of US politics is a real bonus. i’ve only got mine from books and do my complicated analytical E/V stats based on many factors.
But Arianna Huffington , that puts my concern about huffington post now into context. It gets quoted here regularly by the Obama supporters as a gospel of independent jounalism. I kept reading their articles & after awhile of continued heavily pro obama articles I’d suggested they didn’t seem too independent to me , but the obamaphiles put it down to me not liking positive Obama storys
But most storys were pro Obama. now you’ve enlightened me , I can feel certain rather than an assumption. Thx
Ron – I have my Battlestar Galactica, which I download episodes direct from the USA, after they’ve aired there:) amongst other things — but sports ..nuhuh.. personally hate sports of all kinds, but since I live with a family, community, workplace, country and planet full of sports junkies, I dont usually make an issue of it..
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Just at a loose end tonight, and out for dinner earlier, far too much coffee etc, but can sleep tomorrow 🙂 I usually have a life, but taking some time to catch up with things…
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Obama is welcome to his delegates, (like Guam *matters*?).
He can have his good news, we can be gracious, like Hillary so often is. The weekend polls will be out on Monday, US time, Tuesday ours. Usually SUSA releases a final one the day before a primary, and they have been within their margins of error on their finals, in all but one state, this season.
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Zogby is the worst of the lot, apparently Zogby’s brother is a super-delegate for Obama – and the methodology of Zogby has been blatantly cooked all year:)
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HuffobamaPost its called yeah…just do some googling on the name, even wikipedia, thin as it is, probably mentions it in passing -but should give you links to help fill in the blanks.
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Was the mass ‘walk-out’ or ‘strike” by some of the better more balanced journos at Huffington mentioned here? Happened back around Ohio/Texas primaries.
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Guam Update:
1:35 a.m. — Obama in front with 683 votes; Clinton trails with 596
Ferny – keep in coming!
woops – sub in with it
Catrina…I’ll be falling asleep soon. They seem to be maintaining a 100 vote split at the moment.
RAIN
By the way , your comments about the not too popular Kennedys riled one Obama supporter whose produced a real volley at you but whose only argument was that Teddy does get elected. Geezovers dog representing the Democrats would get elected there. i think what upset the bloger was bloger is a supporter of the ‘liberal’ faction in the northeast as are the Kennedys , the royal elitists’ of Massaschusetts
Zogby. To be honest , i do not factor them in , their polling results in some primarys have been terrible.Zogby’s brother is a super-delegate for Obama , geez Rain you continue to surprise me with info. Any feel SurveyUSA as an odd big Hillary poll lead threw me
Guam Update:
1:45 a.m. — Obama at 719 votes after 10 districts counted; Clinton at 629
From the Pacific News Center
Tabulation half-done; Obama still in lead
Pacific News Center Staff Reporter 04.MAY.08
1:45 a.m. Guam – With 11 out of 19 precincts reporting, Senator Barack Obama is leading Senator Hillary Clinton by 6 percentage points. The total preference count so far is Obama with 768 to Clinton’s 680.
Meanwhile, the race for Party Chair and Vice-Chair isn’t as close as the delegates’. With over half of the counting done the team of Pillar Lujan and Jaime Paulino is leading the three teams with 48 percent of the vote.