1,359 comments on “North Carolina and Indiana minus four days”

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  1. RAIN ,

    i couldn’t avoid the maths being quoted here between the 10th & the 11th district totals. Votes counted after 10th , has had 51 votes counted & Hillary got 49. Not sure i believe that , perhaps a MSM mistake of figures misquoted

  2. *nodding*, the old yankee Northern Democrats versus Southern Democrats – always been the fault line within the Dem Party. They never got over the Civil War, and are still split along that Mason-Dixon Line 🙂
    .
    Although these days, it is more class-based than geographical, it still roughly holds that line of northern yankees, versus southern bubbas. northern yankees, like the Kennedy’s are “old money”, may as well be royalty of “old families” dating back centuries to the Mayflower. The Clintons have been called a “mixed Marriage” as in marrying across the Mason-Dixon Line. Thats why Hillary is hated separately to Bill, a traitor to the northern yankees, by marrying a southerner.
    .

  4. Rain

    #202

    very true. Its why a notheast Liberal Democrat never wins a State in the South
    and they get thrashed in POTUS elections.

    Bill from Arkansas won southern seats & POTUS (as did Carter from Georgia)
    and the obama from Illinois supporters dream of winning South States to win POTUS, worse still obama won’t win Ohio nor Florida. Another ‘liberal’ Democrat POTUS election train wreck ?

  5. must be late , count 100 , Obama got 49 to 51 , even spread in a distrct against the trend
    .
    LOL, have another coffee Ron 🙂
    .

  6. Thx , rain , just put it on

    whilst water boiling , can I put up a thought thats been troubling me about Obama

    As you do with the modern ‘spin’ and advertising experts , the web site of all Candidates including the Roney & Hucks are all full of lovely words for the committed to glance aqt & to re-affirm their faith & quote from. None of them should be taken notice of. its what the Candidats say in interviews & debates that tell you their policys & how much they really know about them

    With obama , after 12 weeks here , the most Obama supporters say in favour of him is 1/ good character vs Hillary 2/ anew style of politics , not the insider Hillary Washington etablishment 3/ racial harmony (well the Pastor blew tht up 4/ ‘a change to’ (but to what I do not know what)

    NOTHING else. They will not say. What will be different for thUS people specifically. It all 1/ to 4/ lovely message , but where’s the contents ?
    its like a used car salesman dressed up selling nothing

  7. Bill from Arkansas won southern seats & POTUS (as did Carter from Georgia)
    and the obama from Illinois supporters dream of winning South States to win POTUS, worse still obama won’t win Ohio nor Florida. Another ‘liberal’ Democrat POTUS election train wreck ?
    .
    Yeppers. Gore came close too. Edwards also very popular, but pipped by northerner Kerry – but you see why Edwards had to go on the bottom of the ticket in 2004?
    .
    Bill was a very poor working-class southern boy too, who through academic excellence won a full scholarship to Yale, which is where he met Hillary.
    .
    If the Party Super-Deez back Obama for the nomination, it will be because they’d rather lose the GE, than serve under a Clinton administration in Congress.
    .
    Anyway, back to maths and polls and predictions – I’m putting Obama down a little in North Carolina, he should on demographics take it by 15% or more, but I’m taking him down to about 8-10 points, I’m just guessing that turnout will be down a little, and some Repub women are crossing-over in secret (wont admit to polls, or to their husbands etc that they like her *chuckle*) – and Clinton for Indiana at around 5-10 points like Pennsylvania/Ohio etc, which again should on demographics, be tighter or an Obama squeak – because the north of that state, is in the Chicago media network districts, but Clinton should take the southern counties easily.
    .
    But then my predictions have been wrong about half the time, so far!
    .

  8. I think the most astonishing I ‘ve found is Obama does come fom the Democrat faction of the Yankee liberal ‘royal family ‘ northeast with broad visions of society built on cultural attitudes of the rest of the community and ‘politically correct’ philosophys. It is a world of the mix of the superiority thinking ‘trendies’ , the ‘elitists , inteligentsia, the ‘intellectuals’ ,the snoby part of academia , the literary self admire set , the lattee set and Obama is & represents them.

    These groups are heavily represented on this site as Obama supporters and alleged Labor supporters.

    But its not the real world where even middle income people face challenges , let alone the poor & disadvantage, and they are not interested in this visionary nonsense. They want real policy solutions

    Regretably Obama has tapped into the and 20’s 30’s college educated set disenchanted with current poor politic (with justificaction) idealistically hoping for better without realising the dream has no substance & the new politics promise is a con, pollies are pollies. The object should be to get better policy outcomes & policy accountability regulations & scrutiny which requires detailed processes outlined , both of which the disliked Hilllary is promising

  9. Hillary think by 6% Indiana. Obama by 13% NC (I’m assuming reasonable ‘black turnout despite the pastor. but I would like you to be right on Indiana my friend

  10. Another report confirming the earlier report of 768/680 advantage Obama (seems that GaumPDM.com is simply relaying news from Pacific News Center).

    2 a.m. — Obama at 768 votes, Clinton at 680 after 11 districts counted.

    Sen. Barack Obama continues to hold the lead in the Democratic caucus after 11 Democratic caucus districts have been counted.

    Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina, 151 in Inarajan, 46 in Asan, 55 in Chalan Pago, 87 in Santa Rita, 102 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 28 in Hagåtña, 158 in Barrigada, 36 in Merizo and 49 in Piti for a total of 768 votes.

    Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina, 87 in Inarajan, 33 in Asan, 87 in Chalan Pago, 73 in Santa Rita, 81 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 29 votes in Hagåtña, 166 in Barrigada, 33 in Merizo and 51 in Piti for a total of 680 votes.

    http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080503/NEWS01/80504009

  11. RAIN ,

    I’ve organized to take 20 excited 10 years whov’e never been to the big time football before (plus their parents) to go today to a televised AFL game and I’m organized for all of them entry free which is a big help , with prime seats as well in the expensive area free & I’ve got to naturally look after all 20 of them & watch them for the day so I better get some sleep because so many youngsters of that age will probably be real excited & will keep my hands full, so my chips on shoulder , rudeness & my inferiority complex do not need to be exaserbated by tiredness. Can we talk another time & keep healthy RAIN

  12. 2:45 a.m. — Obama widens lead over Clinton

    Obama: 54%
    Clinton: 46%

    After 12 districts have been counted, Sen. Barack Obama has widened his lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus.

    Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina, 151 in Inarajan, 46 in Asan, 55 in Chalan Pago, 87 in Santa Rita, 102 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 28 in Hagåtña, 158 in Barrigada, 36 in Merizo, 49 in Piti and 131 in Sinajana for a total of 899 votes.

    Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina, 87 in Inarajan, 33 in Asan, 87 in Chalan Pago, 73 in Santa Rita, 81 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 29 votes in Hagåtña, 166 in Barrigada, 33 in Merizo, 51 in Piti and 89 in Sinajana for a total of 769 votes.

    http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504010

  14. And a conflicting report from Pacific News

    Obama: 1007 (53.5%)
    Clinton: 874 (46.5%)

    3:30 a.m. Guam – Despite being the home of Senator Barack Obama’s arguably most outspoken supporter, former Governor Carl Gutierrez, Agana Height’s vote was split nearly 50-50. Josh Tenorio from the Obama camp, speculates Republicans and Independents registering as Democrats for the day may have swayed the vote, but says he could not explain definitively why the village’s turnout was so close.

    13 precincts have reported so far, and Senator Obama has kept his 6 point lead (1007 to 874).

  18. And in response to Rain and Ron’s little love-in last night wherein terms such as “closet poofta”, etc were thrown about with such glee like naughty children who have stayed up after the adults – you do yourselves and your candidate no favours my friends.
    It’s lovely that you found each other (Rain- you may live to rue the day), but the constant barrage against anyone supporting Obama is frankly ridiculous.
    As Ferny said- no further discussion from me either.

  19. Guam update: 18 districts reporting.

    Obama: 1,496 (53.5%)
    Clinton: 1,298 (46.5%)

    5:40 a.m. — After 18 districts have been counted, Sen. Barack Obama maintains about 54 percent of the vote, leading Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus. One of the largest districts, Dededo, still hasn’t been counted toward the total vote, however. The other two districts yet to be counted are Agat and Yona.

  21. 6:30 a.m. — With only Dededo left to count, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus. Clinton will need to win Dededo by 204 votes to overtake Obama.

    Obama: 1,951 (52.7%)
    Clinton: 1,748 (47.3%)

  22. Hafa Adai, Bludgers, have you ever been greeted in Gaumanian before?
    Tres Pacifique cosmo, non?

    Coconut Cowboy Corrals Coral Vote OK:

    Catrina, you are formidable, a Bludger of focus and intensity. Bloody well done. My info is so yesterday, but post it one must, in the hope that we might glean a bit of demogro oil, eg, what is the % of US Fiorces voting in the Gaum total?

    Coconut Cowboy Corrals Coral Vote OK:

    “HAGATNA, Guam — Barack Obama was leading Hillary Rodham Clinton in presidential caucuses on Guam, which has assumed unexpected importance in a historic Democratic race in which every delegate matters.
    With 15 out of 21 districts reporting, Obama was ahead with 1,393 votes to 1,222 for those pledged to Hillary Rodham Clinton.
    More than 3,000 votes were expected in heavy turnout at caucuses in the U.S. territory, where neither candidate campaigned.
    Four pledged delegate votes were at stake on the island 8,000 miles from Washington. Guam also has five superdelegates and some of those are being determined in the caucus voting as well.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/03/obama-clinton-vie-in-guam_n_99950.html

  23. From my poorly edited HuffPo link: “More than 3,000 votes were expected in heavy turnout at caucuses in the U.S. territory, where neither candidate campaigned.”

    A quick squiz at Catrina at 220 indicates that when the dealin’s done, over 4000 voters will have polled. This is more than your common or garden gnome variety “heavy turnout”, it’s one king-tide of a turnout. Tsunami-esque. Textbooks will refer to it as Guam’s salute to the new Democratic Big Kahuna.

    Perhaps slumbering Super Ds will harken to the Pacific people’s perturbation. At least for Obi, Brutusina’s run of “wins” has been shattered. In this game, as indeed in life, love and poker, little fish are sweet.

  25. thanks guys –
    so this should give Obama the bounce he needs. Fantastic to see so many get off the couch and vote: whatever else happens democracy is the winner in this election.

  26. Hot off the press NY Time:

    Update | 7:15 p.m.
    The Associated Press calls Guam for Obama

    The kid storms the Pacific, but last vote tally I saw he was but 204 votes ahead!

    But like Ecky says, small fish, and probably coconuts, are sweet.

  29. Close, or what?

    Here’s the story:

    According to The Pacific Daily News, Mr. Obama won by just 7 votes. So given the proportional allocation of delegates, the result probably won’t affect the delegate math. However, an Obama supporter was elected to be the party vice-chairman, so he did pick up one superdelegate.

    NYT

  30. 227
    Blair S. Fairman

    For the purposes of the maths, ie one more super, yep, a win is a win.

    God let this finish! LOL

  31. Yep a win is win.

    Clinton need absolutely everything to fall in her favour.

    If she is to get across the line it will be by the barest margin given the vast numbers of supers she needs to pick up.

    So even the loss of one super in Guam is significant.

  32. The time since march 11 has been purgatory for Obama. He was always going to lose Penn so this gave Clinton an eight week window to look like the front runner and try to get the supers to split her way.

    She did make in-roads but trashed her reputation with the broader electrate. Also, critically, she failed to crack Obama – which is what she really need to do.

    I think the dynamic is about to change on Tuesday – when the improbability of a Clinton win becomes clearer.

    … still if she can win NC ….

  33. Betfair Odds Time:
    NC Obama $1.05 Clinton $9.20
    Indiana Clinton $1.16 Obama $5.90

    Overall all: Obama $1.38 Clinton $4.20 (also Gore $24 Edwards $620)
    For President: Dem $1.62 Rep $2.56

  35. Kirri@229,

    ’tis agonising,especially when inevitably both Clintons and Repugs will be using their covert range of dirty tricks.
    Am expecting the BFG.

    And btw,congrats on being crowned the PB ‘chick magnet’ by a fellow PBer some time back!! lol

    Back to the real world…

  36. Sportingbet:

    Dem Nomination:
    Sen. Barack Obama 1.30

    Sen. Hillary Clinton 3.40

    Al Gore 15.00

    Prez:
    Sen. Barack Obama – DEM 2.30 (out from 1.95 last week)

    Sen. John McCain – REP 2.35

    Sen. Hillary Clinton – DEM 4.35 (in from 5.00 last week)

    Al Gore 17.00

  37. I love the way Al Gore is hanging in there with the bookies.

    I guess the idea is that Obama and Clinton will beat each other to a pulp and Gore will step in at the last moment as a cleanskin and scoop the nomination.

    But 15-1 is overstating the chance.

  39. The Right’s Anger Over Obama:

    “Obama was, I think, brought up and lived for a long time in an atmosphere in which occasional left-wing excess did not grate on his ears or his temperament as they would on people like, er, me. And his desire to connect to a black experience he never fully had himself also played a part in not distancing himself from some aspect of his pastor’s rhetoric or friends’ associations. But to go from this to the vicious attempt to portray Obama as a fraud, an actor, and another phony politician is a sign of the hard right’s nervousness. When you listen to Sean Hannity, you hear someone who looks at Obama and sees every racial fear he has ever had about black Democrats personified. The difficulty of making distinctions between, say, Sharpton, Jackson and Obama is just too much for him. They’re all black Democrats, aren’t they? They must all be traitors or far left anti-American hate-mongers. He doesn’t even hear the broader Obama message, the full Obama manifesto, the book, the countless speeches, and interviews and debates in which Obama’s broader post-racial, post-partisan appeal is exposed. One can only hope that most people will see the full picture. But the right-wing freak show machine will do all it can to prevent it.”

    http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/05/the-rights-ange.html

  40. [And his desire to connect to a black experience he never fully had himself also played a part in not distancing himself from some aspect of his pastor’s rhetoric or friends’ associations.]

    FG,

    does that make him too black? Or not black enough? I forget which one we’re up to at this stage.

    I think this is coming down to whether or not Obama can be seen as a uniting figure. The critics are attempting to attack his key message (uniting force etc) by painting him as an ‘extremist’ or ‘corrupt’, much in the way the media has been best at – through association (see McCarthy, David Hicks, Brian Burke, Haneef).

    Recent Australian history suggests this isn’t effective. However, not knowing much about the states, i’d suggest its possible that this could effective. The article at 238 makes me kinda scared that this could be a successful action.

  41. And by way of comparison, Sportingbet is offerig these odds on the next Oz Fed election:

    Labor 1.18

    Coalition 4.50

    So I guess Hillary has roughly the same chance of becoming Prez as the Libs do of forming the next government here.

  42. 239
    YoHoHo – the author is optimistic that the Bush years have created the environment that has made Obama possible. He argues that the nation is so disgusted with what they have become under Bush that they want to hose him and what he stands for completely out of their bloodstream.

  43. So it’s not about whether he’s black enough or too black. It’s about the complete contrast he brings to what they currently have

  44. yeah fair enough FG.

    And the obvious advantage he has over Clinton and McCain is his lack of connection to the Bush years.

  45. FG @ 233
    ‘So The Kid won 2/3 of the districts and still was only 7 votes ahead?! Some race!’

    Dio @ 237

    Standby: Guam Gate

  46. From MoveOn.org:

    “Stand up for Democracy in the Democratic Party

    A group of millionaire Democratic donors are threatening to stop supporting Democrats in Congress because Nancy Pelosi said that the people, not the superdelegates, should decide the Presidential nomination.
    They’re Clinton supporters and they’re trying to use their high-roller status to strong arm the Democratic leaders.
    So let’s tell Nancy Pelosi that if she keeps standing up for regular Americans, thousands of us will have her back.
    A compiled petition with your individual comment will be presented to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic leadership.”

    http://pol.moveon.org/democracy/?rc=homepage

  47. FG –
    like I said earlier – alley cat.
    Can’t tell me the clinton’s aren’t the muscle behind this approach.

  48. 234
    megan

    Yes, it’s strangely both fascinating and boring in equal measure, depending on my mood. But you have to say it’s an eye opener to the weird world of American politics, eh? Especially in a period of such incredible economic turmoil and the realisation that the Bush years have been a disaster for them on so many fronts.

    As for the ‘chick magnet’ is that anything like a ‘fridge magnet’? Can I stick it on a chick, and will it chirp chirp for me?

    I’m not exactly sure what one does with such a device! LOL

  50. Kirri,

    Find my sympathies with Gore Vidal,except for his rather dour opinion of Obama.

    And it isn’t just about wishing one or other side to win,but that they at least ‘walk the talk’ of democracy.

    Ethics go out the door when the hunger for power overwhelms,n’est-ce pas?

    And as for that ‘chick magnet’ and sticking it on a chick, as a small child my father used to tell me that if I put some salt on a chick’s tail,it would allow me to catch it!
    (Spent hours in the henhouse until it dawned on me….! Doh!)

    BTW don’t know of anyone who still has their JWH fridge magnets.
    Does anyone?

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