Pennsylvania minus three weeks

Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “Pennsylvania minus three weeks”

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  1. The sooner Hillary gets out of the race the better off the Democrats will be. I’ve never seen such a beat up as this nonsense. Talk about irritating! I used to think Hillary deserved the beneift of the doubt and should at least be taken seriously. But she has shown herself to be cycnical fraud. American politics does bring out the worst in people and Hllary has now shown just how bad she really is. When will this exercise in self-destruction be brough to a conclusion!

  2. 898 #Kina Says: Ron # 892: Hence my reluctance to add to this thread, I don’t know what makes them tick.

    Hello Kina , it was my poor fortune to study them.

    I wish I had not because most have these core values which are SO different in content & emphasis to most Australians. Most Australians regard their values as..

    The ones holding these values as ‘sacred’ hold them with extreme passion & could be called ‘redknecks’. The majority of americans however still believe in these core values and hold them ‘dear’
    Diogenes , ‘sacred’ was misapplied in my earlier blog)

    Every US Pollie Kina therefore panders to these values & you see it as a put off in almost all US Pollies speechs buts that why the Pollies do it.

  3. #892
    Ron Says:

    Kina # 899
    and that the problem with alot of blogers here.

    More generalizations?

    Important issues here , are often unimportant there. And vice versa.

    I disagree Ron. If you spend time in the States, live with people, work with them, establish long term friendships, listen, learn, reflect, you would understand that Americans are not really any different to Australians. What is very different is their history and the role they play on the global stage. Their history is mixture of great things and terrible things. Their role and its inherent responsibility is a source of pride and inevitably the basis for a good deal of their national insecurity. Australians don’t have the responsibility of having to front up as the super power – but when stuff happens – we and the rest of the world look to America for leadership. A good part of the last decade has has been occupied with the aftermath of 9/11. From that context a very aggressive foreign policy has taken centre stage – a policy that has been largely build around a ‘don’t fvck with me’ message wrapped around medium term geopolitical interests. We can (rightfully) denounce these reactions but we cannot plead ignorance of the fact that a bunch extremists took a bite sized chuck out of the left ball of the global champion. But move on a few years and the average American is understanding something new – the war doesn’t add up when you try to join the dots – the economy is in recession – people are loosing their houses and jobs – and they are asking questions and the answers are more and more frequently falling on the doorstep of Washington. Something else that is filtering down to Americans is that the rest of the world is watching this election process like none other – because the rest of the world knows that America be better than it has been.

    Which is why Obama supporters here misunderstand that to Americans some things are sacred : guns , patriotism , the flag the military , mainstream religion , ‘white’ immigrants , their lack of prejudice….all the American way

    Guns in America are not sacred. What is sacred is the history of rebellion and the capture of that sentiment within the constitution. One has to separate the ‘right’ from the decision. The right is sacred – but the decision to bear arms is much more to do with self protection as a consequence of that right (and feel free to substitute self protection with whatever actions you can think of related to addressing degrees of personal insecurity).

    Personally I believe patriotism and the stuff about the flag and the military are complicated by history and the overhead of the role of global superpower within a context of historic adolescence. In fact we may be watching the turning point in American history – a point where America moves from adolescence to the early years of manhood. A point where America understands that it is not alone – and that to be a world leader – it needs friends and allies – that it can do more with you than against you.

    Friscogate & Pastorgate directly attack these sacred American values and when these issues are re highlighted again but in more aggressive ads by the Repugs ,
    Obama is guaranteed to lose alot of votes , he otherwise would not have.

    And finally – this last point is complete and utter rubbish because you fail to recognize that American and just like Australians – except that they have a lot more responsibility. Give then credit for this. The Bush era was about revenge, greed and opportunity. The next seven years will be about reconciliation and a chance at global development – and to be terribly frank – there really are a lot of Americans that are really bitter about the disconnect between Pennsylvania Avenue and small town America.

  4. Theda Skocpol, Harvard academic, early glass ceiling buster (she challenged Harvard in court for her tenure in the 80s) protege of Barrington Moore Jr, developer of an idea of macro-social comparative enquiry, calls Clinton into line:

    “I have been in meetings with the Clintons and their advisors where very clinical things were said in a very-detached tone about unwillingness of working class voters to trust government — and Bill Clinton — and about their unfortunate (from a Clinton perspective) proclivity to vote on life-style rather than economic issues. To see Hillary going absolutely over the top to smash Obama for making clearly more humanly sympathetic observations in this vein, is just amazing. Even more so to see her pretending to be a gun-toting non-elite. Give us a break!
    I wonder if she realizes that gaining a few days of lurid publicity that might reach a slice of voters is going to cost her a great deal in the regard of many Democrats, whose strong support she will need if she somehow claws her way to the nomination — and even more so if she does not clinch the nomination. The distribution of “we’re not bitter” stickers to her campaign rallies is the height of over-the-top crudity, and the reports are that very few audience members seem to have much enthusiasm for this nonsense. Not surprisingly, people cannot see the reasons for so much fuss.

    Yes, she wants a big break, she desperately wants the nomination she and Bill believe is hers by right. We all know that. But where is her authenticity and her dignity and her sense of any proportion?

    This has to be one of the few times in U.S. political history when a multi-millionaire has accused a much less wealthy fellow public servant, a person of the same party and views who made much less lucrative career choices, of “elitism”! (I won’t say the only time, because U.S. political history is full of absurdities of this sort.) In a way, it is funny — and it may not be long before the jokes start.”

  6. The local Scranton rag has endorsed Obama…how’s that for irony?

    “Though it prominently featured an article about Mr. Obama’s remarks on its Sunday front page, the editorial board on the same day endorsed Mr. Obama, calling Mrs. Clinton a “political lightning rod” whose administration would deepen political divisions.”

    NYTimes

    (Scranton is where Hillary’s father grew up, and where she’s campaigned)

  10. 910 GG

    I would argue that the worst word was not “bitter”. Lots of the rednecks are saying “Well duh, of course we are bitter”. I think the problem word was “cling” which does come across as patronising. Most of the PA papers have endorsed Obama. I predict that the polls will not show any appreciable change after the beatup.

  13. Yes GG

    So Australians are like Americans. Thats why the Obamabots are able to assess
    political trends in the US

    Australians “cling to their guns” and “cling to their religion” and
    “cling to antipathy to people who aren’t like them”

  15. Ron,

    I have always agreed with you that bloggers here are looking at the US through their Australian eyes and perceptions. This can only take you so far in understanding the US political scene.

    This is a pretty good overview from the New York Times. No one is quite sure how it will all play out, but no one is saying it is good news for Obama. I note there are debates Sunday night and next Wednesday in Philadelphia.

    Will be very interesting.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/13/us/politics/13campaign.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5087&em&en=9d2c9c0b7c03d784&ex=1208232000

  18. GG and Ron, liberals are elitists, they don’t understand real folk like you do? I believe Fox News hammers that into their viewers all the time.

    McCain can’t raise a cracker from the ordinary god fearing folk so he will accept public funding, Clinton raised a few crackers from ordinary folk but still relies on funding from lobbyists and corporates. Obama has broken all funding records and primary turnout records, all thanks to ordinary folk.

    Somebody’s already stolen your schtick, lads.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVC4JUg9A9A

  19. Al,

    Are you another one of those elites that look down on bitter middle America, clinging to their religion and guns?

    Time for your soy latte, cobber?

  20. The way Hillary keeps shooting herself in the foot you have to wonder if she misspoke about her dad teaching her to shoot. Seems more likely that it was Dick Cheney! 🙂

  22. Thanks for the link GG.

    The article was quite balanced in looking at the bigger picture and you are right to say its unclear the actual electoral college damage

    In the past voters have elected POTUS they suspected may be elitist and not of them. Whether they will vote for someone they actually know is an elitist will be a test , especially distant from the Liberal northeast eg. the mid west.

    Voters generally like the delusion the Pollie understands & epathises with their hardships & life status , and believes their general values. Pastorgate & Friscogate seem to me an effective way to demonstate you do not , particularly the critical mid west. To that extent , his candidature for the Democrats I think is a risk

  23. GG @ 920 – [Al, Are you another one of those elites that look down on bitter middle America, clinging to their religion and guns?]

    Bogans exist in all western countries unfortunately. Here in Aus they’re bitter too. This is why they stubbornly cling to Victoria Bitter, a very poor quality beer. They also cling to 1980’s fashion to help them forget, usually sporting mullets. Here they don’t cling to religion, but rather to the local tavern (with a 5 acre carpark). Instead of guns, it’s hotted-up cars, and having as many abused babies as possible by the age of 18.

    And here we have an outrage in which a group of leafy Wahroonga residents have been wrongly labelled as bogans, which must be most unpleasant for the poor dears when they live so far from the Campbellltown/Liverpool bogan epicentre.

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23533259-5006009,00.html

  24. The problem with you Al is that you don’t like others trying to broaden the discussion or citing different sources of information.

    I have no problem with you reading and rejecting but I don’t notice much contribution from you apart from your pithy wit and disdain for anyone elses’ world view.

    So who is the troll?

  25. Twenty-one elected officials and community leaders from small towns and rural areas throughout Pennsylvania released an open letter asking fellow Pennsylvanians to set aside Senators Clinton and McCain’s recent attempts at political point-scoring and consider who will fight for them as President.

    Dear Fellow Pennsylvanian,

    We live in small towns and rural areas throughout Pennsylvania and we support Barack Obama for President.

    A few days ago, Sen. Obama made some comments that his opponents are now using to make him appear as if he is something he is not. Instead of speaking to us honestly about how they intend to solve the problems we are facing, they are playing the same old Washington games that accomplish nothing.

    What Sen. Obama said is that over the last 25-30 years, working class people in places like Pennsylvania have been falling behind, and that politicians in Washington haven’t been looking out for them. He also said that, as a result, many people have become frustrated, angry and even bitter about all the broken promises.

    He was right.

    The politicians who are now saying that we shouldn’t be frustrated are the ones who are out of touch.

    People in the towns and communities we live in have seen their jobs shipped overseas. We’ve seen our pensions disappear. We’ve seen our health care costs skyrocket. We’ve seen everything from the cost of gasoline to a gallon of milk go through the roof.

    As our families have struggled to make ends meet and our communities fought to stay intact, how has Washington responded? By giving tax breaks to the wealthy, rewarding corporations who ship jobs overseas, and turning the levers of power over to the lobbyists and special interests.

    It’s easy to feel a little frustrated when you see these Washington politicians continue to ignore you. But it’s not the only emotion we feel. When someone comes along who is untainted by the system in Washington, who doesn’t take money from federal lobbyists or special interests and who promises that things can be different, we feel something else—hope.

    That’s why we’re supporting Barack Obama. Others have come along and promised change, but failed to deliver. Sen. Obama is different than the rest. He doesn’t take money from the special interests, and he speaks honestly about the issues we are facing.

    In addition to supporting his plans for jobs, health care and education, we believe that he can deliver on his promises to ensure economic opportunity for family farmers, to provide support for rural economic development, to promote renewable energy in rural America, to protect the rights of hunters and other law-abiding Americans to purchase, own, transport, and use guns for the purposes of hunting and target shooting, and to preserve open land for hunting and fishing.

    Unlike his opponents who have been part of the Washington establishment for decades, Barack Obama understands the struggles we are going through. We welcomed him with open arms as he made his way through small towns and rural areas on his recent bus tour across the state. And we will work day and night from now until the primary on his behalf not only because he has heard our frustrations, but because he speaks to our hope that Washington can actually work for people like us.

    Sincerely,

    Ted Alter, State College

    Westmoreland County Commissioner Tom Bayla, Greensburg

    Mayor John Brenner, York

    Lloyd Casey, West Chester – President, Pennsylvania Forestry Association

    Mayor John Fetterman, Braddock

    Mayor Rick Gray, Lancaster

    Scott Harrison, Warriors Mark

    State Representative Bryan Lentz, Swarthmore

    State Senator Sean Logan, Monroeville

    Carl Majji, Claysville – Corporal, U.S. Army

    Mayor Thomas McMahon, Reading

    State Senator Bob Mellow – Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Leader

    U.S. Representative Patrick Murphy, Doylestown – U.S. Congressman (PA-08)

    Perry County Commissioner Steve Naylor, New Bloomfield

    Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien, Dunmore

    Fran Rodriquez, Lancaster

    State Representative Josh Shapiro, Abington – Deputy Speaker, Pennsylvania House of Representatives

    Major General Walter Stewart, Berks County – Former Commander, 28th Infantry Division, Pennsylvania Army National Guard

    State Representative Dan Surra, St. Marys

    State Representative Thomas Tangretti, Greensburg

    Lackawanna County Commissioner Michael Washo, Scranton

  26. JV,

    You certainly take the award for most sterotypical cliches in one post!

    Perhaps they should see it as a marketing opportunity. Organise bus tours for international vistors. Dress the locals in appropriate costumes. Sell Ugg Boots and Bogan Burgers. Rename all their kids Kevin and Julia.

    Might be an earner for them.

  28. What is it that makes Obama an ‘elitist’? His upbringing? Hardly. Working class all the way. His education or profession? Both required determination and hard work. The bulk of his legal career was spent in community legal centres – not the most well paid or prestigious spot for a Harvard lawyer. His money? Mostly from his books. Unlike most ‘elites’ he didn’t inherit a dime. It’s all been earned.

    Are we saying that anyone who has attained some success in life is automatically an elitist? The Kid has come from a poor background, spent most of his career working with the poor and is receiving the bulk of his campaign donations, not from Corporations or ‘old money’ players, but from ordinary working Americans.

    Seems to me he’s the least ‘elite’ of them all.

  29. js,

    Nice letter. But, I daresay all those signing were already rusted on Obama supporters prior to the “bitter” comments. So, what has changed?

    The response is orchestrated and reeks of damage control. The question is how much influence their views will have on the punters?

  30. Ron, before you shoot those for looking at US politics through Australian eyes, wasn’t it you who devoted several posts to which candidate’s healthcare policy was closer to a Labor position? And in mentioning the Bosnia gaffe said that ‘even Kevin07’ makes similar gaffes?

  32. #930 GG

    Nice letter. But, I daresay all those signing were already rusted on Obama supporters prior to the “bitter” comments. So, what has changed?

    One thing that has changed is the way in which incidents like this are being managed. As we speak people are co-signing that letter on-line and providing concrete evidence of the Washington disconnect. A week from today – Obama will be able to cherry pick the best of the best stories and present these to the American people. Yes – I agree that this is damage control, but what is much more interesting is the deployment of new mechanisms as a part of a damage control process. Campaign managers far and wide will be learning a great deal from the Obama campaign in motion.

  34. Ferny @ 929- [Are we saying that anyone who has attained some success in life is automatically an elitist?]
    I think that’s right. There is some deliberate confusion being created between ‘elitist’ and ‘elite’, and there is an element in it of trying to create a gap betwen Obama and poor blacks as well as the gun-totin;, church-goin; good ol’ boys (who Hillary now says she resembles!).
    Any candidate for President is automatically part of the political ‘elite’. You don’t raise $200+ million if you’re a member of the under-classes.
    The careful distinction is in trying to portray as ‘elitist’ Obama’s generalised comment about the fact that a group of the battlers is p*ssed off.
    By this logic, someone like Obama, or for that matter Clinton or McCain, in merely describing the plight of any underprivileged group is being ‘elitist’ because they are describing it from an ‘elite’ position.
    Hilllary would have us believe that a candidate can only talk about the plight of angry socio-economically stressed groups like the churchified gun-toters of Pennsylvania if you are like them, as she ludicrously now suggests she is.
    It really is a whole lot of absolute garbage, something made from nothing, and yet another example of how desperate she is.

  36. It’s been interesting to note that the Obama campaign has not publicly rebuked the Clintons for double dealing; while Hillary was publicly bad-mouthing the Colombian free trade agreement (and then sacking Penn for selling his services in the deal!), Bill was also raking in big bucks on it too.

    But let’s parse ‘bitter’ until the cows come home.

    Really, it’s pathetic, and shows how desperate Camp Clinton is.

  37. Pancho says
    Ron, before you shoot those for looking at US politics through Australian eyes, wasn’t it you who devoted several posts to which candidate’s healthcare policy was closer to a Labor position?

    Pancho there is a big difference between comparing candidates ‘policy’ vs Labors , and comparing values ‘dear’ to Americans vs those values ‘dear’ to Australians.

    Hillary & Edwards have a ‘Labor’ “universal” Health Policy. Obama does not.
    Hillary’s is mandated ,Labors is mandated (via the tax levy). Obama is optional

    But American’s attitude to guns & the breadth of Americans participation in religion & its influence on politic is different to Australia. Unless you are suggesting otherwise , I can see no analogy in your question

  38. Ron, the Labor policy is about universal access not universal coverage, payment is not mandated for all tax payers, low income earners do not have to pay the medicare levy.

  39. Ron, I agree with you that many people (in fact I’d be surprised if any of us really can) look at guns and religion in the same way that Americans do. I spent a little bit of time in PA, and I certainly can’t profess to understanding their views on it; I only managed to get to the stage accepted them. As such, I think Obama’s comments have the potential to be damaging, but I can’t really comment on them all that much because I’m not at all sure what the real effect will be on voters (and in particular Democrat voters).

    One thing I did want to disagree with you on was saying that Labor’s healthcare system is mandated. A mandated system requires people to purchase health insurance from private companies, whereas the current system in Australia is a centralised government not-for-profit organisation of which everyone is provided coverage.

  40. In the Australian system, high income earners subsidise health care for low income earners through paying a higher medicare levy.

    In the Clinton system, low income earners will actually subsidies health care for high income earners as poorer people tend to have poorer diets, tend to smoke more and drink in excess, and also exercise less. This will mean low income earners will be assessed as a higher insurance risk and pay higher premiums. The same way that people who live in poorer neighbourhoods pay relatively higher insurance premiums on their car and house and contents insurance.

  41. Even the most noble squib on gun control. Here’s Obama:

    “Trying to turn the tables on both rivals, Senator Obama said his words had been twisted to suggest he was demeaning people who were religious and gun owners.

    “I am a man of deep faith,” he said, adding that he respected the right of people to own guns.

    “I have repeatedly talked about the tradition that people pass on from generation to generation, hunters and sportsman.””

    Yep – those school massacres have become so common I guess they almost qualify as a tradition.

  42. The substance of my #938 blog was to suggest to Pancho (his blog #931)

    that there is a big difference between comparing Candidates ‘policy’ vs Labors , and comparing values ‘dear’ to Americans vs those values ‘dear’ to Australians.

    Policy differences can be compared , subject to US political & economic constraints , whereas I can see assessing the political affect of values ‘dear’ to Americans without accepting they are ‘dear to them , whether you agree wwith those ‘dear’ US values or not.

    Friscogate is an example. It involves guns , religion etc and to apply Australian values views on them is always going result in Australian’s thinking its a non issue or a media beatup on our man Obama.

    Obama does not agree with alot of his supporters here at all….he is devoting alot of time to it. As he also does regarding ‘patriotism’ etc

    Al#940 thank you for acknowleging there is a difference inhow they look at them
    Also for acknowledging “Obama’s comments have the potential to be damaging”

    The debate , as with Pastorgate , should be on their electoral college effect
    when McCain does reintroduce these issues seriously , rather than the lame Hillary attacks which are constrained by trying to win the rusted on Democrats

    Unfortunately on this site , many think neither Pastorgate nor Friscogate have ANY potential to do damage to Obama , using values dear’ to Australians.
    I think it is the wrong criteria & thus leads to the wrong possible outcomes

    I do agree it is difficult to assess the potential , let alone the quantum of damage. I was simply giving an opinion there would be damage & in the crucial mid west. Would like to leave Healthcare as a separate issue to discuss

  44. 942
    Ferny Grover

    Crikey Ferny, you’ve hit on a great idea: the annual student cull.

    Imagine, every state can have open season on university campuses and the huge burden of educating all those kids can be reduced in a short time. Given the massive financial costs and the teetering state budgets, this could be a real boon.

    World TV rights could be sold in advance, advertisers lined up, sponsors, and of course the NRA could make a killing…er, um, so to speak.

    Why let some random punk meltdown ruin a fantastic marketing opportunity? This could be a tradition, right up there with Thanksgiving.

  45. Ron,

    I think we can both agree though that Hillary’s attacks on his comments are probably pushing in the wrong direction. Given the recent polls showing most people believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, she should probably be spinning it so that she was talking about people being disillusioned by the current administration (thereby hitting at McCain and the GOP) but are hopeful of bringing about change through this years election (which I think she tried to do, but I don’t think it was as clear as it could have been). She could then have started to play into Obama’s “Hope” theme and try and wedge off some of the rusted-on supporters.

  46. #943
    Rondroid

    I do agree it is difficult to assess the potential

    And therein is the rub – differentiating between ‘what could be’ and ‘what should be’. Your looking back, I’m looking ahead. Win, loose or draw – we will be looking back at this moment as the day that changed the status quo.

  49. FG @ 949 [Since January, Pennsylvania has registered nearly 210,000 new voters.]
    Damn those Dem branch stackers! I wonder if Eddie, Joe and Reba sent over some of their best hacks from young labor in NSW to help.

  50. Al

    agree entirely with your #946.
    Hillary has misjudged what Obama’s political errors were in Friscogate as well as picked out ‘bitter” but used it poorly. (in a way that actually feeds into Obama’s disingenuous anti all Pollies theme at Terre Haute to hide Friscogate.

    As you indicate , she could have criticised Obama for insulting them calling them
    ‘bitter (as she should have) , said they are instead frustrated or disallusioned at Bush’s promising all & supplying nothing to ordinary Americans & offered the message she will change it ..we Americans are the greatest country on earth etc
    (the Polls suggest this approach).

    She also could have differentiated herself from Obama with Howard’s love me or loath me theme. Then quoted Obama’s Friscogate stereotyping words & said he’s an elitist , he’s not of you …so if he does not understand you , how can you trust him to deliver for you on his lofty words. If he does not respect you ,..

    Guess the question is ,will McCain learn from Hillary’s tactical mistakes.
    In 2004 Howard was gone, but he put doubts on Latham , not ALP policys & won

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