Pennsylvania minus three weeks

Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “Pennsylvania minus three weeks”

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  1. JV – as I keep sayin’ – it’s an unauthorised outbreak of democracy! Bloody disgraceful that Obama should actually succeed in getting the vote out.

  2. FG @ 952 That’s right FG, how dare that Barack Obama be so popular in this campaign? He is playing dirty politics by being so inspiring that voters are falling over themselves to register. Hillary certainly wouldn’t play it like that. The fact that she couldn’t isn’t the point. He should be forced by the Dem heavies to be more of a dull speaker, tell some blatant lies and be a flake like her, so it’s a level playing field.
    Penn-style spin is easy, isn’t it?

  3. Afternoon Bludgers,
    the most significant part of Obi’s reply to Senator Duck-Clinton came near the end of his address in Steelton PA and the punters ate it up. He did it without auto-cues. He swatted her condescending “Annie Oakley” attack on him as an “out of touch elitist” while simultaneously barrelling Johnny Bomb-Bomb.
    Obi tagged the pair of them as Beltway-beholden whores, but he did it nice.

    “……this campaign we said we were gonna do something different….
    we said we weren’t gonna take pack money
    we weren’t gonna take money from federal lobbyists
    because I wanted to be accountable to you.
    And there were all kinds of people who said, well….
    he’s not going to be able to compete against all those big money interests in
    Washington.
    Well you know what they didn’t understand, they didn’t understand you. {index finger points, cocked at 45 degrees; voice steady, eyes steely}
    They didn’t understand that you were tired of politics that was all about tearing
    each other down, you wanted politics that was all about lifting the country up,
    They didn’t understand, they didn’t UNDERSTAND that you were gonna finance my campaign with 25 dollar contributions and fifty dollar contributions.
    They didn’t understand that you were gonna help to build the best political organisation out there, that could compete with anybody no matter how many big endorsements the other candidates got, we had the people on our side…….
    And so I’m here to say to you, all of my friends in Layton(?)
    …that…you have funded my campaign…..
    I am accountable to you……those lobbyists, they have not funded my campaign,
    they will not run our White House and they will not drown out the voices of the American people when I’m president of the United States of America. {his final phrases delivered with resolve and the eye of the tiger}

    The crowd loved it. His points will not be lost on a lot of voting trickle-downees either.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIxmi3e2Vmo&eurl=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/13/watch-obama-on-annie-oakl_n_96459.html

  5. The perils of Obama or How the Dems can snatch defeat from the jaw of victory.

    Far from a no-holds-barred affair, the Democratic contest has been an exercise in self-censorship. Rip off the duct tape and here is what they would say: Obama has serious problems with Jewish voters (goodbye Florida), working-class whites (goodbye Ohio) and Hispanics (goodbye, New Mexico)…………………

    Skepticism about Obama’s general election prospects extends beyond Clinton backers. We spoke to unaffiliated Democratic lawmakers, veteran lobbyists, and campaign operatives who believe the rush of enthusiasm for Obama’s charisma and fresh face has inhibited sober appraisals of his potential weaknesses………..

    Obama is indeed poised and self-confident. But the current uproar over his impromptu sociology lesson in San Francisco about “bitter” voters in Pennsylvania raise questions about his self-discipline, and his understanding of how easy it is for a politicians in modern politics to lose control of his or her public image.

    http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=47B82639-3048-5C12-006FAA614CC2E556

  6. you know, I bet a lot of those newly registered voters are black too. Clearlythis is rampant branch-stacking , and it should be stopped or Obama might win due to their support.
    Outrageous. Particularly as he is an elitist, and a lot of them are probably poor. Clearly, they don’t know their own minds.

  7. #956
    Finns – but how does this explain a trading profile that over the last few days has been all but flat. Yes, Obama has dropped from 84 to 83 in the last three days and Clinton has stayed steady on 15 (results reported from Intrade). Is a 1.2% shift (when your 82% ahead) your definition of losing control?

  8. but Finns , Obama at least has won the “elitist” vote , including that group here

    History is full of great Orators , most full of flowery puff but no substance

    yeah , no more Washington lobbyists eh ? , all now to be unemployed…wow !

  9. I’m amazed that the US has so many well educated, elitist black males who don’t are anti-gun and anti-religion.

    Given that we are continually being told that females, whites, Hispanics, Jews, gun-owners, racists, fundamentalists, the poor and the down-trodden will never vote for him just who the fu*k are these 50% plus of the population who are voting for him?

    Or just maybe, we are being fed simplistic patronising bull sh*t – passed off as analysis – about how primitive the thought processes of US citizens is. 😉

  10. ‘History is full of great Orators , most full of flowery puff but no substance’

    ah-hem…a handful off the top of my head: Winston Churchill, FDR, Jawaharul Nehru, JFK, Martin Luther King, Nelson Mandela.

  11. Ron @ 951….If there is a Lathamesque candidate for POTUS, it is Hillary. Consider it: self-aggrandizing, delusional, malicious….If the democrats choose her, they will lose the unloseable election.

  12. Clinton:

    “”We had two very good men, and men of faith, run for president in 2000 and 2004. Large segments of the electorate concluded that they did not really understand, or relate to, or respect their ways of life.”

    Obama:

    “”Al Gore was mentioned earlier. I think Al Gore won,”

    You reckon that endorsement is getting closer? She’d better be careful.

  14. I have been wondering, yes just wondering, on why Obama is clinging to religion. If you look at his up bringing and background, he probably will be the last person that you would expect to be religious. He said in a speech in 2007: “My mother, whose parents were nonpracticing Baptists and Methodists, was one of the most spiritual souls I ever knew. But she had a healthy skepticism of religion as an institution. And as a consequence, so did I.”

    * being abandoned at 2 by his biological father
    * his romantic dream of his father and mother met was just that a romantic dream
    * his also equally romantic dream of his father was also shattered by reality
    * being dragged by his free spirited dreamer mother in 1967 to an Indonesia that was in social, economic and political turmoil.
    * His Indonesian step father Lolo Soetoro has been described as “a free spirited muslim” but not a devout Muslim.
    * from the accounts by his Indonesian school mates, he had a rather unhappy time there because he stood up and was often teased by the local children. The children called him “Negro”.
    * in 1971, his mother sent him back to Hawaii to study and be looked after by his grandfather and grandmother. He said: “But when I think about the fact that I was separated from her, I suspect it had more of an impact than I know.”
    * In 1975, when Obama was 14, his mother decided to go back to Indonesia. Obama decided he did not want to go with her because he was tired of being dragged around. She stayed there until 1984.
    * His mother died of ovarian and uterine cancer, on Nov. 7, 1995, at 52. Obama has said he regretted for not being at his mother’s side when she died.
    * published a book about his father but not his mother.

    So if i applied his bitterness theory to Obama himself. Could it be his “bitterness” about his own childhood and background that makes him cling to religion?

  15. Pancho ,
    I said ‘most’, and you can only supply 6 , 5 have passed away & one is out of power. Why do look at current Leaders around the world.
    Oh , I forgot…one is only 80 miles from the US mainland

  16. Ron, don’t be silly. If you want a laundry list I’ll pull a speeches book off the shelf behind me. Of course most of history’s ‘great orators’ are not ‘full of flowery puff but no substance’. It’s not an argument you can win with a politicised throwaway line.

  17. Diogenes

    Lets put it in reverse , here we have Primary elections fought SOLELY by rusted on Democrats.
    Hillary is ‘known’ , an alleged liar, alleged Iraq supporter , disliked & snaky , stands for nothing but her ambition….
    and yet even within the Democrat faithful , Obama does hold a significant overall popular vote lead
    ….If Hillary is that bad , Obama should be streets ahead

    (If notionally Florida & Michigan’s vote numbers included it would make it even more embarassing that Obama/Hillary overall popular votes are close)

    Almost 50% of all rusted Democrats in the US do have reservations about Obama
    These are alarm bells for the POTUS election , if Hillary is so ‘bad’

  19. Finns-
    could it be that he has lived in the real world, unlike some of his privileged opponents, and being American religion has helped him to cope?
    Personally I wish atheists could run for POTUS, but not at this election.

  20. #970 – jen – give a child at 7 and i give you the man. if he was a confused child at 7, could he be a also a confused man at 47? that is my worry for Obama as POTUS.

  21. Well Pancho , I repeat my question , look at today 2008 at the Leaders around the world

    Pick out some good Orators , cause there are plenty & see how many delivered.

    Of course you could take an australian example of an inspiring Leader who promised ‘change’ & hope and regularly drew immense crowds of over 100,000

    He ended up some years later in a position to put his ideals into action as Deputy Prime Minister and then Treasurer. Dreams colliding with reality.
    Obama’s Oratory will not put food on the poor’s dinner table

    ps/ Finns , your research is unbelievable. Presume the Repugs already have

  22. Ron, that was not your original question. You made a false statement about the historical worth of oratory, which I responded to. A powerful orator in a high office is capable of accomplishing much, for good or bad. In response to your question about Australia, the most recent soaring speaker was Paul Keating, the man charged with transforming the Australian economy.

    Re. Finns research – of course the Republicans have it. All of that has been published by Obama in his two books. It’s a pretty open public record, and the books are good reads as well. And they provide you with such facts as to enable devastating pseudo-scientific critiques like Finns’ as well.

  23. Finns @ 971

    You’re “concern” about Obama as POTUS isn’t that he might be “confused”.

    You already told us your “concern” weeks ago …… he has a d*ck.

  24. #973 – i bet you this one is not in his book. His step father Lolo Soetoro was also a military man, A Lieutenant in TNI (Indonesia Army). He was sent by the TNI to Hawaii to study Topography.

    After he returned to Indonesia, he later worked Union Oil of the USA. Between 1966-1970, when Suharto toppled Sukarno, CIA worked very closely with the TNI to crush then Communists and Sukarno in Indonesia.

  27. Finessing The Rubes by Glenn Greenwald:

    “What is notable here is not so much the specific petty attacks, but rather the method by which they are disseminated and then entrenched as conventional wisdom among our Really Smart Political Insiders and Serious Journalists. This is the endlessly repeated process that occurred here:

    STEP 1 A new Drudge-dependent gossip (Ben Smith) at a new substance-free political rag (The Politico)–or some rightwing talkradio host (Rush Limbaugh) or some credibility-bereft right-wing blogger (a Michelle Malkin)–seizes on some petty, manufactured incident to fuel clichéd caricatures of Democratic candidates.

    STEP 2 The old right-wing gossip (Drudge) employs his old, substance-free political rag (The Drudge Report) to amplify the inane caricatures.

    STEP 3 National media outlets, such as AP and CNN, whose world is ruled by Drudge, take note of and begin “analyzing” the “political implications” of the gossip, thus transforming it into “news stories.”

    STEP 4 Our Serious Beltway Journalists and Political Analysts–in the Haircut Case, Tim Russert and Brian Williams and Adam Nagourney and the very serious and smart Substantive Journalists at The New Republic–mindlessly repeat all of it, thereby solidifying it as transparent conventional wisdom.

    STEP 5 When called upon to justify their endless reporting over such petty and pointless Drudge-generated matters, these “journalists” cite Steps 1-4 as “proof” that “the people” care about these stories, even though the “evidence” consists of nothing other than their own flocklike chirping.
    Repeat steps 1-5 until the Republican is elected.”

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/13/14556/2176/360/494929

  28. 971 Finns. You’re pushing a very scary deterministic line here when you imply that if Obama was a confused child at 7 he might be a confused man at 47. First, you’re making a lot of assumptions about his state of mind in his childhood (Indonesian schoolmates as a source? Very unreliable). Second, you imply that children whose parents break up, who experience a lot of change, etc, are scarred for life. But there are many well-balanced adults who experienced difficult childhoods. As well as flaky adults who had completely ‘normal’ childhoods. I get the feeling you’re not even convincing yourself here. You’re certainly not convincing me.

  29. 968 Ron

    That’s a good question but a crappy answer. The answer to both questions is that candidates are not defined by their negative qualities, a fact that the MSM and most bloggers seem to have missed.

    978 EC

    Ben Smith has been well and truly outed. If you look at his site, there was endless abuse of him regarding Bittergate and now there’s silence. The comment numbers are pitiful. He’s even had to promise not to mention Bittergate again in a lame attempt to lure people back. He has lost his credibility. Just watch Politico use Avi as a co-author so bloggers might hold their noses and return.

    971 Finns

    What absolute drivel. Try to recall the 7up series. At seven, the happiest, most gregarious and most likeable child was Neil. He went on to become a depressed schizophrenic hermit as an adult. Please try harder next time.

  30. At seven, the happiest, most gregarious and most likeable child was Neil. He went on to become a depressed schizophrenic hermit as an adult.

    And a Liberal Democrat councillor to boot. A salutary warning to us all.

  31. Pancho

    History is full of great Orators , most full of flowery puff but no substance’
    not false , true.

    I asked you to list the current World leaders who are great Orators & you didn’t
    because they support my point. Everywhere you look there’s genocide & misery for ordinary humans. Many get ‘power’ through the power of their Oratory of ‘change’ , rather than relying just on the gun. Many retain power using the power of Oratory rather than the gun.

    Your view is not supported by history , even by a review of current & recent World Leaders (who subsequently become ruthless Despots).
    One of the things they all have in common is before they get ‘Power’ they use the power of their Oratory (and their ‘message of ‘change’ or ‘hope’) which overwhelms any dispassionate assessment of the real person , their convictions , ambitions & standards by the Media or the masses. So the masses swarm to the Oratory , to the ‘hope’

    Even when they are questioned their oratory skills are their first defence.
    The less eloquent dry speaking aspiring leaders (like Kevin07) in contrast must rely on reason & substance to convince the Media and people of their rationale.
    The minority great Orators like Mandela, MLK & Nehru are a minority and some with a personal hardship history that supports their Oratory & message.

    Obama does not have that history. What Obama has is the same great Oratory skills that have allowed despots (and I might add benign ‘duds’) power without dispassionate assessment & Obama right now is also doing so to avoid scrutiny.
    Obama is NOT the first clearly NON despotic Leader to use Oratory to win the masses without any substance behind him and he will not be the last.
    If he was to become a ‘Mandella’ , it will be by good fortune and not by serious scrutiny & this site is a good example of ‘it will all be ok’. Not good ebnough.

    Frankly your defence of great Orators generally is appalling, given their overall record. They are so hard to pin down & assess before they get ‘Power’ to see what they’ll produce and they know it. Had it been Gore instead of Hillary how many of Obama supporters would have jumped from Obama to Gore by now.

  32. Just back.

    And Pancho , the great Orator Ronald Reagan , a 2 term POTUS.
    He also escaped serious POTUS scrutiny because of his great oratory & 1 liners.
    He should have and neither should Obama

  33. Ron, you are confusing ‘great oratory’ with the moral positions of individuals. In many senses Reagan was a great orator, as were other morally compromised or complicated figures. While I don’t have much time for him, many Republicans credit him with pressuring the USSR to stretching point and eventually the end of the cold war, and he certainly came to power at a time when the US was in global decline and managed to shift many perceptions about that state. I don’t intend to give an ‘overall defence’ of great orators as you put it, I’m just pointing out that your position is simplistic and inaccurate.

    Your arguments about Obama increasingly stand behind a characture that you are presenting, do not reflect reality. In addition to being a fine speaker (I think we agree on that point) Obama was the editor of the Harvard Law Review, a Professor of Law, a State legislator for 8 years and a Federal one for 4. His policy positions are very similar to Clintons (there are differences which have been discussed and we probably don’t need to again). And I’m not sure how closely you were following this race in 2007, but most criticisms of him at that time were that he was too ‘wonkish’ in his presentations and interactions with the public. His rhetorical skills are something else aside his intellect, and these are great skills for any executive leader to have.

  34. “The Clinton and Obama campaigns clearly have one thing in common in the wake of Barack Obama’s “bitter” remarks: both sides believe the incident provides their candidates with the means to go on the offensive, with Clinton working to paint Obama as “elitist” and Obama seeking to demonstrate that he is “in touch” with the needs of working-class America. It is, of course, too early to assess what lasting impact this story is going to have on the race, but the way the audience at the Alliance For American Manufacturing forum in Pittsburgh received the candidates, and reacted to the issue, will be heartening for the Obama camp. Obama, who greeted the crowd at 8:45am, raised the issue and received applause. Clinton, addressing the same crowd later in the morning, brought up the remarks and received mostly silence, with a few audible impatient jeers.”
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/14/need-headline_n_96578.html

  35. Bill’s playing GOP gutter games again. The lying comes so easy. This is what a Democrat thinks he needs to do to win? What a sad state of affairs:

    “Over seven stops in North Carolina,” Clinton said “Everywhere I go there are all these people with signs, saying I’m not bitter – I’m not bitter.”

    …The strong sentiments were appreciated by the crowd, but were not entirely accurate. During Clinton’s seven stops in North Carolina on Saturday there were no “I’m not bitter” signs. There was a small assortment of people at his later events wearing stickers with the slogan, but many of those sporting the stickers weren’t even sure what they meant. Clinton also was a bit confused about his encounter in Pennsylvania. The conversation actually took place at an earlier event in Bloomsburg, PA – or so Clinton told the crowd in Bloomsburg.”
    http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/04/bill-clinton-ke.html

  36. Pancho @ 986 [Bill’s playing GOP gutter games again. The lying comes so easy.]

    And the outcome for this latest Clinton/right-wing frenzy is shades of the earlier non-issue about the bad, bad pastor – as far as Obama’s support and momentum is concerned, it just don’t mean a damn thang:

    “PPP Poll: Obama Remains Way Ahead in North Carolina
    A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Barack Obama maintaining his 20 point lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton, 54% to 34%.

    The survey was conducted over the weekend suggesting the recent controversy over Obama’s “bitter” comments haven’t eroded his support at all.”

    Key findings: “Obama leads in every region of the state, including those that are predominantly comprised of rural areas and small towns. Obama also leads across every age group. This poll showed an unusually small gender gap with Obama leading men by 22 points and women by 17 points.”

    And:

    “Obama Maintains National Lead
    Sen. Barack Obama, “who has come under attack by his presidential rivals for describing small-town voters as ‘bitter,’ seems to be weathering the storm to this point as far as voters are concerned. He maintains a 10 percentage point lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, 50% to 40%,” according to the latest Gallup tracking poll.”

  37. 986 Pancho

    I read a couple of days ago that the Clinton campaign was having “I’m not bitter” stickers made up to hand out in North Carolina. What a surprise Bill saw some stickers given that his volunteers were handing them out.

    I think one of the saddest things about this campaign has been Bill’s performance. Any credibility he had as an ex-President has been lost. How many positive articles can you think of about Bill. They are invariably negative.

  38. 981 William Bowe

    The political affiliations of the 7 Up people were fascinating. I haven’t seen the latest one but I recall one of the very upper crust Tory boys befriending Neil and being quite close to him. And there was another obnoxious lawyer who stopped going on for a few episodes who then came back on 42 Up to promote overseas aid work he was doing in the Balkans, as he had an Eastern European wife.

  39. How easily these old time Repugs can reveal the traditional language and attitudes, especially those like Geoff representing Kentucky, bordered by the mighty Mississippi.

    Bonus Quote of the Day
    “I’m going to tell you something: That boy’s finger does not need to be on the button.”

    — Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY), quoted by NBC News, about Sen. Barack Obama. He later issued an apology to Obama, essentially saying he misspoke.

    http://politicalwire.com/

  40. Howdy Bludgers,

    Are you a politician plagued with the curse of perpetual misspoken-ness? Do you lack verbal discipline and shoot your mouth off like a teenager with Tourette’s? Avoid ongoing embarrassment and instantly sanitize your utterances with a Verbal Doo-Doo Bag. Never again fear fronting a podium or a presser with a Verbal Doo-Doo Bag concealed discreetly in your apparel. Hygienically packaged and easy to use. Available through the Spin Doctor of your choice. Be like Hillary and that rascal, Bill, and good old John. Never leave home without one!!

    Bonus Quote of the Day
    “I’m going to tell you something: That boy’s finger does not need to be on the button.”
    — Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY), quoted by NBC News, about Sen. Barack Obama. He later issued an apology to Obama, essentially saying he misspoke.

    Geoffie makes a jigaboo-boo. Just as well that racism and racist slips are no longer at play in USA today! The land in where no public figures ever lie, but everyone’s a perpetual misspeaker; the land where a Freudian slip is something that is you buy your main squeeze in a lingerie Boo-Teek. So sanitize your utterances today with a available from the lovely

    “Obama Maintains National Lead
    Sen. Barack Obama, “who has come under attack by his presidential rivals for describing small-town voters as ‘bitter,’ seems to be weathering the storm to this point as far as voters are concerned. He maintains a 10 percentage point lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, 50% to 40%,” according to the latest Gallup tracking poll.

    Key finding: “Obama’s support remained strong in tracking interviews conducted on Saturday and Sunday.”

    “The latest Rasmussen tracking poll shows Obama leading Clinton, 48% to 44%, a trend that “has remained quite stable for the past month “

  42. The latest ARG poll in PA (11-13 April) may be showing that the “bitter” comments might be impacting. Clinton leads 57/37 (+20). ARG’s last poll a week ago had it tied at 45 each.

  43. jv @990 – ouch. This is another reason why the Republicans are at a disadvantage in the general elction – the dynamics of a McCain v. Obama race are a minefield. One comment like that from a tubthumping goon from the South, and they have to take their gloves off for a week and are on the back foot. Devising the tactics and holding the discipline needed to defeat Obama will be a minefield, as the biggest names in a generation of Democratic politics have found over the previous months.

  44. Definitions of a Snob?

    Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we’ve been waiting for. We are the change that we seek – BARACK OBAMA, speech, Feb. 5, 2008.

    I’m so overexposed, I’m making Paris Hilton look like a recluse.

    “You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

  45. Claude – there is another poll out today showing Clinton with an MOA lead in PA: http://www.susquehannapolling.com/polls/Clinton_Obama_4-14-08.pdf

    ARG has had a bad record this primary season, and has has several polls oscillating wildly. They are interesting numbers, but until I see a non ARG with such a gap, I’d add some SAXA. Some responses to ARG below:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/188857.php
    “ARG has had a pretty unreliable record this primary season. But this is a pretty stark shift. ARG’s Pennsylvania poll taken on April 5-6 had a Clinton-Obama tie at 45%. Today they have a new poll out, taken April 11-13, shows a 20 point spread. Clinton 57%, Obama 37%.

    As a control, the two national tracking polls seem to show no discernible shift. Rasmussen’s held steady since the 11th, with a small and statistically insignificant increase for Obama. Gallup’s has also been essentially static. But their number for today has yet to be released. But it’s also true that coverage of this story in Pennsylvania has likely been as intense as anywhere in the country.”

    And WSJ:
    http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/is-clintons-pennsylvania-lead-really-20-points-319/
    “But there are reasons to question ARG polling numbers. In a polling report card of 2008 primary accuracy issued by a rival survey company, ARG ranked in the bottom half of more than three dozen polling firms, among 2008 primaries through late February. It also ranked near the bottom in another ranking of pollster accuracy at fivethirtyeight.com, a Web site that tracks the Electoral College. And, as I wrote last month, the widely tracked polling averages at the political Web site Real Clear Politics don’t include ARG numbers, because of concerns about transparency. Like they’ve been in Pennsylvania, ARG polls also were volatile in previous primaries, notably in Wisconsin, which saw a 16-point swing in just two days.”

  48. 996: Pancho, thanks for the link to the other poll and background on ARG. As a non american, tracking the endless polls for the same electorate with wildly differing results (even though taken at the same time) has been quite bewildering.
    Compare this to polling in Australia where it’s usual to have more than a 3% difference between the majors …

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