Pennsylvania minus three weeks

Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “Pennsylvania minus three weeks”

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  1. 1001

    [Owner and Chairman of the Pittsburgh Steelers endorses Obama! Snipin’, duckhuntin’, elitists and now football endorsements.]

    Pancho , doesn’t suprise me in the least. Dan Rooney has been the face of civil rights in the NFL, and was instrumental in the instution of the rule that all NFL franchises must intereview a minority applicant when they are hiring a coach.

    As the article says, the Steelers and Rooney (whos family has run them for about 50 years) are as close to royalty in PA as one can be.

  2. Is there anyone left for Billary to throw under the bus in her hopeless quest for the presidency? Richardson, Gore, Kerry, Obama, the black community. The next one will be PA Governor Rendell who has said of the “bitter” comments “By the time November rolls around, I think this comment will be long forgotten.”

    Another thing I’ve noticed is the inordinate amount of times the politicians in the US get booed. So far, I’ve seen the following booed; Hillary (several times), Ashcroft, Bush (who REALLY copped it), Cheney, McCain (several times). Haven’t seen The Kid booed yet though. As Machiavelli said, a leader can be loved or feared but he cannot be hated.

  3. 1006
    Jen

    I have to agree with you on those two Jen.

    Did you see that the little rodent has crept back to gee up the troops? God, it’s like General Custer coming back from the dead to tell his troops (all dead too), they’ll recover, it’s only temporary, and what a great bunch we were, eh?

    This man is odious, truly odious. They deserved him, and they deserve their political oblivion.

    Long may it last.

  4. This will taste bitter to the Clintons – the poll also shows Obama with a lead over Clinton in Michigan 42-37, a big reversal on what the figures would have been in January.

    “Democrat Barack Obama holds a small lead over John McCain in the race for Michigan’s 17 electoral votes, but McCain holds a significant lead over Hillary Clinton in a new poll released Monday.”

    http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080414/POLITICS/804140415/1361

    Jen – You have an interest in George C don’t you? Here is a link to an in depth article in the latest New Yorker:

    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/04/14/080414fa_fact_parker/?currentPage=1

  5. Actually, there is an interesting element to the Michigan poll that supports the predictions here of a likely jump in support for the Dem candidate, whoever it is when finally it is down to just one.

    Obama leads McCain 43-41
    McCain leads Clinton 46-37

    BUT Dems lead Repugs 43-31 when the question was just on voting intention by party.

    I believe this means the Republicans are sliced bread which has been browned by exposure to dry heat.

    Especially if it’s Obama for the Dems.

  6. Was it Whitlam who once quipped about an Opposition “headed, but not led by [whoever was Opposition Leader at the time]”?

    I believe Machiavelli was making a similar point when he said a leader can be loved or feared but never hated. Once hated, the ‘head’ ceases to lead – cos noone is following.

  7. Jen at 1006 and KR at 1008 “have to disagree with Machiavelli there.”

    I reckon that Dio’s unstated proviso about Niccolo was that (if a leader is to remain in, or aspire to power) “a leader can be loved or feared but he cannot be hated.”

    Loathed El Rodente to the max but never feared him despite the (still active btw) sedition and anti-terrorist laws. Luckily some friends have the wherewithal to cause major static in Oz if beat-up heat came my way.
    However, won’t return to Seppo City Central till The Imbecile is politically dead an buried. Although I’m not a (ahem) “terrorist”, I’ve always had a big mouth on radio and on the blogs. Although small fry, these things get “noticed”. When when people like us (ordinary, decent politically aware Australians) look the other way, it’s all over as far as “democracy” is concerned. What was allowed to happen to Doctors Haneef and Ul-Huq and to little league shit-kickers like Habib and Hicks was authoritarian bastardry of the worst order.
    The way things stand now in the US, on a whim people (including visitors and tourists) can be declared “unlawful ECs” and incarcerated sans habeus corpus for indefinate periods. Manichean crap like “you’re either with us OR the terrorists” as interpreted by John Yoo et al. gives functionaries huge powers that is abused as a matter of course.
    “Welcome to America, sir, my computer indicates you are a person of interest, please step this way”.

    And the longer Little Johhny Stableford’s tainted legacy sticks (like shit to a blanket) to the tories, the longer they will remain unelectable.

  8. Machiavelli argued that a leader who was loved or feared could become hated by his actions. Once the leader was hated, his followers would no longer passively or actively act on his behalf. They would grudgingly act in a half-hearted (bitter!) way, resenting their actions all the while. As the resentment builds up, it turns increasingly to subversion, dissent and active undermining of the leader. The only way this can be controlled is by imposing a totalitarian state, which is kind of hard to do in a liberal democracy but the hated leaders of our times have given it a good try by stifling the press, the public service, the judiciary and attacking any opponent vigorously.

  9. Diogenes –
    I agree that once a leader is hated s/he will lose the support of his people, thereby ultimately losing the capacity to lead. The trouble is it can take a long time for people to realise and by then they have the power to prevent action (see Mugabe).

  10. “You might want to comment on that, Honorable.”
    – To New Jersey’s Secretary of State, the Honorable DeForest B. Soaries, Jr.; as quoted by Dana Milbank in the Washington Post; July 15, 2000

  11. js, next week Bittergate backlash will bite Brutusina on her sweet bippy, you betcha!

    Mon April 14: Be it ever so humble….
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AtE9Lga0C8aQ4koDbdIma41X_b4F

    Sat April 12: United they sit…
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=AhNRYZQdbLWUf.s156ZMbeFS_b4F

    Mon April 14: Maybe our intrepid adventurers will make it. After all, “Executive Clearance” was not forthcoming to the World’s Greatest Air Force to protect the American Homeland from “rogue aircraft” on that fateful day in September.
    http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=Ary781KJ5xFUfumyo8UknH3d.sgF

    Growler, if that’s best the deperates at Team Billary can muster , then The Kid is in better shape than I thought.

  12. EC,

    You’ll be surprised to know that the ad is not targetted at smart alec Australian bloggers with far too much time on their hands.

    You’ll be even further amazed that just because it doesn’t use a cartoon or have a funny punch line from one of your personal stable of elite humorists, doesn’t mean it won’t resonate with the target audience.

  13. 1018 GG

    I’m getting the impression Billary is overplaying her hand on Bittergate. The mental picture of her flogging the last tendrils of flesh off a dead horse as it crumbles into the dust is hardly edifying.

  14. Ecky, I hear faint echoes of Randy Newman:

    Coz we’re rednecks, rednecks,
    don’t know our ass from a hole in the ground,
    and we’re keepin’ the nigga down.

    (from memory, but that’s the gist)

    Seems the junior Senator has inflamed some passions with a little ‘truthification’ as Georgie Boy Bush would call it.

    Gotta say he’s handled it well, and when McCain took up the tune Obama just turned around and said “elitist? OK, let’s have that debate”, essentially, bring it on.

    Meanwhile, the US economy is disappearing around the S-bend, oil’s at $110, financial markets are in catastrophic meltdown, the US housing market is deflating quicker than the Hindenburg, food prices are on a spike globally, but Hillary wants to talk about Obama using the word ‘bitter’.

    Oh, did I forget to mention the 3 trillion dollar war they can’t end? LOL

  15. I’m thinking of Bosnia and the myriad other misspoken Hillary moments – and wondering where the Obama attack ads were?

    Which gets me thinking more about character…

  16. so the Elitists here in the Obamabots can not handle their Elitist man & by extension themselves being forced out of the closet

    Being confronted with what you are is disturbing for the precious dears

  17. I have no idea about the veracity of the document sited in the following link but its a compelling read all the same. The document proports to be the minutes of a White House meeting help on the 11 November 1993 involving ‘The President’, HRC, TFM, RN, IM, RH and GS.

    The document is full of some really choice sound bites – for example, HRC comments on the Catholic Church:

    “for me this is a dying religion in this country … and if we cannot arrive at a mutual agreement on this, we can proceed against them by increasing the number of priest-pederasty charges. It can be pointed out that what they do not want is a media campaign about this. The Turners (Ted Turner and his underlings at CNN) have already done the groundwork for this …

    http://thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=6143

    Like I said before – no idea if this document is legitimate – but its a good read all the same.

  18. Ron

    My god this elitist stuff is pathetic. Watching otherwise intelligent people get caught up in a discourse that most here largely panned for years under the Howard regime is just amazing. If i wanted to read that kind of rant, i’d read Andrew f*cking Bolt.

  19. GG @ 1020

    “smart alec Australian bloggers with far too much time on their hands”

    what a wonderful self analysis.

    btw

    The Clintons are finished politically.

  20. Personally, I find it confusing that the terms “elitist” and “intellectual” , which means well-educated, well-read, intelligent and interested in current affairs, are used as derogatory terms. Can someone explain what is wrong with being intelligent, well-read and having opinions?

    If I wanted a poorly-educated, poorly-read, stupid and disinterested president, I’d be voting for Warwick Capper or Al Bundy.

  21. #1029
    HarryH said:

    The Clintons are finished politically.

    I’m guessing that the majority of the 1,310,699 individual financial contributors to the Obama campaign agree with you.

  22. 1027
    William Bowe

    Ironic, huh? Here’s Hillary playing the redneck’s friend and saviour, while Obama is telling it (ok, a bit clumsily) essentially like it is. And of course Republicans have been playing these rubes for years on guns/gays/god like it was a Stradavarius.

    Can the white working class/elite divide be broken?

    The irony is that it’s Hillary Clinton bashing the ‘nigga’ for his remark.

    We’re rednecks…

  23. What ‘elitist’ hurts. Truth always does.

    Hillary is right rightly applying it to Obama

    I think Finns described the word snob & superior attaitudes earlier today quite well

  24. From Ed Kilgour’s column on the Democratic Strategist site:

    http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/

    The Philly Inquirer’s Dick Polman blogs today..:

    “The Republicans are also trying to paint Obama as “elitist,” but that’s the standard GOP template (twice used successfully by George W. Bush – a graduate of Phillips Academy Andover, Yale University, and Harvard Business School, son of a former president and grandson of a former U.S. senator). It’s particularly amusing to hear that “elitist” label being thrown around by John McCain, given the fact that McCain is married to a multimillionaire heiress; that McCain wants to extend the Bush tax cuts that help the rich at the expense of the working class; and that he has spent weeks tweaking his mortgage assistance proposal, which originally offered homeowners the same quality of aid that Herbert Hoover extended to Great Depression victims nearly 80 years ago. (Another thigh-slapper: William Kristol – descendent of a Manhattan intellectual family, and son of a New York University professor – used his New York Times column today to argue that Cling-gate is proof of Obama’s attitudinal ties to…Karl Marx.)”

  25. 1036
    Ferny Grover

    Yep it’s a hoot, and so is Bill collecting his $800k on the Columbian deal while the little wife was out there telling the factory fodder she’d be fightn’ for ’em against all that ‘free trade’ that was taking their jobs away.

    “‘Coz we’re rednecks, don’t know our ass from a hole in the ground,
    and we’re keepin’ the ‘niggas’ down.”

  26. Ron,
    i m doing my best to ignore you these days as I find most of what you write utterly tedious, although i respect your right to say it. However, to say that people who are informed and concerned about the struggle that other members of their society face is elitist, is frankly just plain ignorant.
    try something else – for as long as you have been posting here you have not managed to set up one reasonable argument that rises above the crap that the MSM focusses on.
    I’ll go back to ignoring you now, unless you can come up with something worth reading.

  27. Pancho , you wrote alot of words to defend your simplistic views on reat Orators
    but disingenuously avoided answering my questionthat would have exposed you

    Why , because your argument would have been shown as demonstatively false.
    I repeat the question , name all the great Orators who are current World Leaders

    If your argument that political great Orators are not mostly flowery puff and no substance , here’s your chance to prove it by naming all the great Orators who current World leaders. Shows your argument was all huff and no puff

  28. “…or have a funny punch line from one of your personal stable of elite humorists,”

    That’s very good, Growler, you really crack me up! Actually, I’m the kind of a guy who saddles-up “humorists” the way John Laws rides his automotive vehicles. Selection depends upon weather, mood and who the hell’s gonna see me just so’s I can make a big impression. If a guy’s gonna consume humour, why not do it conspicuously?

    Mon April 14: Real Men don’t do it sitting down!!
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tedrall;_ylt=ArSjLPW4DSCdU9OuXm4Td0RW_b4F

    Tues April 15: And so it goes
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billschorr;_ylt=Ar_UwSrT_WGHWBaznFoZRTkxvTYC

    Tues April 15: War is Peace; Bitter is Sweet; Freedom is Slavery.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=Ar2FYEJZ8fYvs2k6PmaMeRdT_b4F

    “If there was hope, it must lie in the proles, because only there, in those swarming disregarded masses, eighty-five percent of the population of (American) Oceania, could the force to destroy the (Beltway) Party ever be generated.” —pg 60, 1984.

    So who’s that guy tapping in to the audacity of hope? And where’s he doing it?

  29. 1041
    GG, I agree with Governor Rendell:

    “On Monday, he shrugged off the impact of Mr. Obama’s comments. “It will cost a couple of points at the margin, but it won’t be a sea-changer,” the governor said”

    ‘Nuff said

  30. Hi Jen,

    I reckon KR and his elitist friends are blowing a lot of the foam off their cappuchinos.

    BTW, Ron’s a great contributor here. Always prepared to argue his corner, reads and listens to what others contribute and (certainly a rarity here), is prepared to acknowledge if he has misunderstood or made an error.

  31. alright, can’t resist.
    Ron,
    there is a dearth of current world leaders who are admirable. And possibly none of them are great Orators. In other words, it’s what is lacking, and it’s why Obama has such appeal for people thirsty for leadership and vision instead of the same old political expediency.
    bet I regret this..

  32. Ron

    And to continue from Jen’s point, there have been enough in recent history to refute your argument. I’d continue Pancho’s list but that would waste space.

    And if there isn’t any now, what does that prove? That great orators are substance-less? No, it proves there are no great orators in power.

    Many point out that Kev07 is prone to hyperbole and excessive symbolism. Is he all fluff and substance? Was the apology fluff and substance? I saw it as a good combination of symbolism (apology) and policy (bipartisan approach to Indigenous affairs).

  33. 1040
    Jen Says:
    April 15th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
    Ron,
    i m doing my best to ignore you these days as I find most of what you write utterly tedious,

    ….what took you so long?

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